SGOTM 22 - Anti-TSR

I have uploaded T19 with nothing moved.

Darius built the oracle in the 18-19 interturn.

Wwar has killed two lions now, one in the 18-19 interturn and has a promotion in hand.

Ewar is almost back to Rome, walking forested hills. Nwar is peering into Carthage, can either still look for worker or go back.

Worker is waiting for orders, standing on pasture.

Upload log:

Spoiler :
Here is your Session Turn Log from 3520 BC to 3240 BC:


Turn 14, 3440 BC: Barbarian's Lion (2.00) vs Julius Caesar's WWar (Warrior) (3.40)
Turn 14, 3440 BC: Combat Odds: 3.6%
Turn 14, 3440 BC: (Animal Combat: +20%)
Turn 14, 3440 BC: (Plot Defense: +50%)
Turn 14, 3440 BC: Julius Caesar's WWar (Warrior) is hit for 15 (85/100HP)
Turn 14, 3440 BC: Barbarian's Lion is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 14, 3440 BC: Barbarian's Lion is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 14, 3440 BC: Barbarian's Lion is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 14, 3440 BC: Julius Caesar's WWar (Warrior) is hit for 15 (70/100HP)
Turn 14, 3440 BC: Barbarian's Lion is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 14, 3440 BC: Julius Caesar's WWar (Warrior) has defeated Barbarian's Lion!

Turn 18, 3280 BC: Darius I is the worst enemy of Brennus, Gilgamesh.
Turn 18, 3280 BC: The Oracle has been built in a far away land!
Turn 18, 3280 BC: Barbarian's Lion (2.00) vs Julius Caesar's WWar (Warrior) (3.40)
Turn 18, 3280 BC: Combat Odds: 3.6%
Turn 18, 3280 BC: (Animal Combat: +20%)
Turn 18, 3280 BC: (Plot Defense: +50%)
Turn 18, 3280 BC: Barbarian's Lion is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 18, 3280 BC: Julius Caesar's WWar (Warrior) is hit for 15 (85/100HP)
Turn 18, 3280 BC: Barbarian's Lion is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 18, 3280 BC: Barbarian's Lion is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 18, 3280 BC: Barbarian's Lion is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 18, 3280 BC: Julius Caesar's WWar (Warrior) has defeated Barbarian's Lion!
Turn 18, 3280 BC: While defending, your WWar has killed a Barbarian Lion!
 

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:goodjob: Well done dV.

Spears on hills. I suppose we have to expect every AI to be given this. At least it's not pre-walled or Castled. Carthage looks ok, but not a super-city like I was expecting. Could that be our future northern base of operations? Nice that it has water access.
 
Thoughts on the new scenario:

Is it worth trying for a worker steal, and tying up NWar longer in the north? Getting one back alive might be progressively less likely as time goes on.

There is a coastline in view by WWar, suggesting that perhaps the map landmass has an hourglass shape.

There is some stone at the northwest edge of the jungle in the NW, but I don't think any great city sites there.

If we are still a Go for GW, then just need a research, worker and warrior plan. But is Darius likely to get Henge and GW before we can get GW? Is he programmed that way?

dV
 
dV, if you want to Zip up the saves, I guess I'll try to figure out where AIs are at. This is our last major juncture before committing the insanity of trying to beat the AIs to GW and choosing our tech path.
 
What are everyone's thoughts on the Oracle going so early? Good or bad?

For me, I think it's a good sign. If BSP had given the AI stone, he would have likely gone for SH or the GW before the Oracle. So we know of at least 2 AIs that got marble. Let's hope that none got stone.

If they did get stone, we should know as soon as they start going for SH or the GW because the max hammer number will sky rocket, right?
 
What are everyone's thoughts on the Oracle going so early? Good or bad?

For me, I think it's a good sign. If BSP had given the AI stone, he would have likely gone for SH or the GW before the Oracle. So we know of at least 2 AIs that got marble. Let's hope that none got stone.

If they did get stone, we should know as soon as they start going for SH or the GW because the max hammer number will sky rocket, right?
Unfortunately not. Hammer numbers are without multipliers. Espionage data includes them, but we only have data from Hannibal.
 
Do you need the full saves or just the demo screens? I screened each of those during play.

dV
 

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Northern expedition: screenshot of our first raging barbarian. The one on the left was hand-selected by evil BSP.
Spoiler :

Their names are Gladius and Legion.
They are Siberian Colossal Bunnys. Bred only from exceptionally large specimens of the bunny, these fluffy nightmares can be 12 hands tall, it's hard to see in the pic as you got nothing to compare them to in the background. Russian hunters train them by using wild dogs against the younger bunnys. They are usually used to protect large areas against wolfs or to hunt bears.

Don't underestimate them.
 
Do you need the full saves or just the demo screens? I screened each of those during play.

dV
I need the saves to go deeper.

The reason is that some of the values on the demo screen change when we adjust our settings. In particular, the GNP changes when we pick different techs to research and when we change our citizen formm one tile to another. This sometimes enables us to see how many AIs have acquired a particular tech.

Also the hammer and food values change when we adjust our citizen(s). This can tell us some information about where the AIs are at if and when it changes our relative ranking.

I also use the AI score changes, which is the first screen and the top 5 city screen.

I'm not really a fan of you making the screenshots, because I think it's really just a waste of your time, in terms of what I need, since I need to open up each save anyway. The screenshots are useful for others who don't want to go that deeply, I suppose.
 
So, what's the plan? I know LC wants to check the saves to see what the AI have been up to. But who's playing next or is DV still playing? Can we put a plan together or do we need LC's analysis first?
 
I've updated this post on page 1 giving some reference posts to make it easier to find posts. Let me know if you'd like me to add other posts.

dV, I've added demo data from your screenshots to my spreadsheet, but I still need the saves. AIs gained T15(T10K), T16(4K), T17(6K), T19(8K), but there's no way to figure out AI techs, continued production and basically all the good stuff we'd like to know to get an idea of where AIs are at.

Incidentally, Darius completing The Oracle on T19 fits exactly with my prior analysis, assuming Darius completed the barracks on T8.
Spoiler :
We know one AI started out at 5hpt and 2 others had at least 4hpt. Furthermore the average fpt was 5fpt, so they're working at least a 3f tile (or started with barays :) ). That indicates a strong likelihood of plains hill if not stone/marble hill starts for 2-3 AIs, maybe even all of them. A typical Demo screen hammer stat for most games are 2h max and 1h average. Here we have 5h max, 3h average, 2h minimum.

If I'm correct about Darius, he has produced (10+)12+30+21=73h.
T0 10h
T3 19h (9K gained by AIs =? 3 archers built by 3 AIs)
T7 40h (4K gained by AIs = 1pop + archer or Rax)
T8 46h (6K gained by AIs = 2 archer/Rax)
T12 73h

Darius might have built a Rax on T8. Otherwise, with stone, Darius would have already completed SH. The Oracle could fall next turn.

The above analysis implies that 3 other AIs built the 3 archers on T3, running 4hpt. Add Zara/Gilg building your worker at 5hpt, and we have these starting hpts: 5,4,4,4,3,2.
Code:
          T3       T4     T5     T6    T7     T8        T9       T10    T11    T12 T12hpt T12pop HasMyst?
Han 2hAI1 16h                    22h-? 24h-p2 27h                33h           39h  @3hpt  pop2  
Dar 3hAI2 19h      22h-p2        34h          46h-Rax?           12h-p3 19h    26h  @7hpt  pop3  Myst
Sal 4hAI3 22h-arch        4h-p2   8h          16h       20h-p3   26h           38h  @6hpt  pop3  Myst
Bre 4hAI4 22h-arch        6h?-p2 12h?         22h-arch?  6h-p3   12h    19h    26h  @7hpt  pop3  Myst
    4hAI5 22h-arch                8h          16h                24h           36h  @4hpt  pop1
    5hAI6 25fh-wkr               40fh         50fh      55fh-wkr  3h-2f         9h  @3hpt  pop1

MaxAIHpt   5hpt            6hpt                6hpt                7hpt  
MinAIHpt   2hpt            2hpt                3hpt                3hpt 
TotAveHpt  3hpt            4hpt   4hpt         4hpt                [COLOR="Red"]4hpt   5hpt[/COLOR] 
TotHammer 22h             25h    27h          28h                 29h    30h   
Comments: TotAveHpt has to correspond to demo screen          **[COLOR="Red"]tricky part here[/COLOR]**
1. It appears from this likely that Darius built a barracks, because Hannibal would have completed an archer 2 turns earlier. We'll find out next turn.
2. Significant here is the amount of hammers in each AI's build as on T12. Sal, Darius, and Brennus could be building (Oracle or) SH rather than GW. Zara/Gilga are not growing, so settler or worker is likely. That leaves Hannibal. IF he's building GW with stone, he'll complete it T22 to T25.
3. Darius, Sal, and Brennus with stone could complete the GW in a minimum of 12t. They can start it any time before ~T28 and beat us to it. Later if they tech BW and whip it at the end.

Okay, folks, I think I've about maxed out the data analysis I'm going to do. I'm leaving town tomorrow and pretty much a way from the game till Thursday.

Someone needs to take the save. WT? Pollina? DV? Seraiel?

 
Sorry about the delay, my friend with cancer was readmitted to hospital yesterday, so been spending a lot of time there.

Which means I won't be continuing to play on right now, so someone else should plan to move forward from here.

Hope this works right for the saves.

dV
 

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