Sid level huts
- Thread starter Spoonwood
- Start date
I doubt very many had huts enabled for Sid. It is not going to make things easier for the human.
Huh? The table says 0 for a Sid expansionist AI. You can't do it on Deity, unless you're expansionist. Did you mean to say that? If you do play as expansionist on Deity, the probability of a settler comes out relatively high. This has an interesting effect. The Portuguese make for a potential powerful 20k game at Deity (you find starts until you pop a hut), where you'll probably play an archipelago map. Early settler, more workers to develop/add into your capital faster. Well, what's the probability for huts for the AIs? This doesn't mean they'll outdo The Byzantines or The Spanish. And of course, Carthage almost surely has more potential for upper-level 20k game than all the other seafaring tribes given, 1. you select no religious opponents and pop an SGL on Ceremonial Burial and 2. you've got ivory.
Down at the bottom it says "Note: Expansion civs get the probabilities of 1 level lower. (For chiftan, theres no diffrence)" which means an expansionist civ on sid has the deity level chances of popping a settler.
And AFAIK, the chances are the same for AI and human player. But I don't know, it's just an assumption.
And AFAIK, the chances are the same for AI and human player. But I don't know, it's just an assumption.
My take on the chart has always been to read it literally. The line about expansionist player at the next lower lever pertains to the basic chart only. The expansionist chart already has that factored into it.
IOW you are not going to get a settler at Sid period.
IOW you are not going to get a settler at Sid period.
Look at the deity column for non-expansionist - 5% gold
5% map
5% warrior
85% barbarians
If you are sid expansionist, you get the deity non-expansionist table except no barbarians. That is:
33.3% gold
33.3% map
33.3% warrior
I would guess that the AI always gets Regent probabilities, but I don't know that for sure.
To sort of test the chart I popped some Sid level huts. I popped
maps-5 times
gold-4 times
warriors-12 times.
Granted, the distribution here doesn't seem quite right. But, if Sid level huts worked like Deity level huts, for 21 huts the probability of popping a settler or a tech no times equals P(not S or not T)=P(not S)+P(not T)=(4/5)^21+(4/5)^21=.01845 approximately. Consequently, the probability of popping *at least* one settler or tech from a hut equals 1-P(not S or not T=1-P(not S)+P(not T)=1-[(4/5)^21+(4/5)^21]=.98155 approximately. I guess I or someone else could pop some more huts... but that seems fairly conclusive, don't you think?
maps-5 times
gold-4 times
warriors-12 times.
Granted, the distribution here doesn't seem quite right. But, if Sid level huts worked like Deity level huts, for 21 huts the probability of popping a settler or a tech no times equals P(not S or not T)=P(not S)+P(not T)=(4/5)^21+(4/5)^21=.01845 approximately. Consequently, the probability of popping *at least* one settler or tech from a hut equals 1-P(not S or not T=1-P(not S)+P(not T)=1-[(4/5)^21+(4/5)^21]=.98155 approximately. I guess I or someone else could pop some more huts... but that seems fairly conclusive, don't you think?
Those numbers were generated with thousands of pops. You'd probably have to do it several times before you'd start seeing that one settler pop.
You are looking at the wrong deity level chart. Sid expansionist (top chart) works like deity non-expansionist (bottom chart) only without barbarians. Deity non-expansionist has 0% chance of getting a settler and 0% chance of getting a tech.
I'd call it fairly conclusive that the charts are correct (at least about settlers/techs).
Chamnix,
No, I haven't looked at the wrong charts. We've actually agreed here. Sid expansionist works just like the deity non-expansionist chart as you said. Your explanation made good sense to me originally, and thank you for that! Deity non-expansionist has 0% chance of getting a settler and 0% chance of getting a tech as you and the chart said, therefore you can't pop a tech or a settler from a hut on Sid with an expansionist tribe.
I started doing tests, because I had this nagging feeling that Turner didn't believe Oystein (who *made* the chart) who said you can't pop a settler or tech on Sid and clarified what his note said somewhat in the thread. Also, it doesn't hurt to test something like this. It looks like Turner still believes one can pop a settler or tech on Sid, so I guess I'll do some more tests and compute probabilities again. Or Turner can show us when he pops a settler on Sid in an unmodded game.
No, I haven't looked at the wrong charts. We've actually agreed here. Sid expansionist works just like the deity non-expansionist chart as you said. Your explanation made good sense to me originally, and thank you for that! Deity non-expansionist has 0% chance of getting a settler and 0% chance of getting a tech as you and the chart said, therefore you can't pop a tech or a settler from a hut on Sid with an expansionist tribe.
I started doing tests, because I had this nagging feeling that Turner didn't believe Oystein (who *made* the chart) who said you can't pop a settler or tech on Sid and clarified what his note said somewhat in the thread. Also, it doesn't hurt to test something like this. It looks like Turner still believes one can pop a settler or tech on Sid, so I guess I'll do some more tests and compute probabilities again. Or Turner can show us when he pops a settler on Sid in an unmodded game.
O.K, so far
maps-6 times
gold-10 times
warriors-15 times
We have 31 pops there, so we the probaiblity of no techs, for 31 tries, given that popping a tech has a .2 probability equals .8^31, as does the probability of no settlers. 2*(.8^31)=.001980804, so 1-2*(.8^31)=.998019196. In other words, if the huts worked like Turner thought they did, for 31 pops, I have a .998019196 probability of popping *at least* one tech *or* settler. Shall I continue until my calculator can't calculate 1-2*(.8^n) anymore Turner, or does this convince you?
maps-6 times
gold-10 times
warriors-15 times
We have 31 pops there, so we the probaiblity of no techs, for 31 tries, given that popping a tech has a .2 probability equals .8^31, as does the probability of no settlers. 2*(.8^31)=.001980804, so 1-2*(.8^31)=.998019196. In other words, if the huts worked like Turner thought they did, for 31 pops, I have a .998019196 probability of popping *at least* one tech *or* settler. Shall I continue until my calculator can't calculate 1-2*(.8^n) anymore Turner, or does this convince you?
Run it a few hundred times, and then report back your results. Perhaps you missed the part where I said these probabilities were run thousands of times.
Look, let's say I run it a few hundred times... meaning 300 times. 1-2*(.8^300)=1-2*8.452712499*10^-30. If I ran it hundred times, 1-2*2.037045976*10^-10... both come out astronomically high in terms of probability. So does .998019196 or 99.8019196%. On top of this who ran those probabilities? *Oystein* wrote the article on 2004-09-28. In comment # 24 he says
gold-5%
maps-5%
warriors-5%
barbs-85%. Now take out the barbs and distribute them evenly over gold, maps, and warriors. In other words, say 5% means 5. and 85% means 5. 85/3 (3 for gold, maps, and warriors)=28 1/3. 5+28 1/3=33 1/3=33.3333. So, if we take the Deity non-expansionist table and take out the barbs and distribute them evenly over all other categories which do not equal 0, we get the Sid expansionist table. Now, that's what his note says. Similarly, look at the Demi-god table for non-expansionist tribes. We have
5 for tech, gold, map, settlers, and warriors. We have 75 for barbs. Evenly distribute those 75 units over tech, gold, map, settlers, and warriors (75/5+5=20) and you have 20 for all those categories. That's the Deity expansionist table. Do the same with the other ones. His note makes sense if you keep this in mind.
To clarify the note it *means* "Expanision civs get the probabilities of 1 level lower *for the base values*, with all barbarians evenly distributed over categories already greater than 0 (except in the warlord case)." Please note his comment holds *for the base values* and *not* for the expansion values. That I didn't get a settler or a tech from those Sid level huts merely confirms this.
By all means test it yourself and then provide evidence of the otherwise. I understand the details of what he meant and his numbers line up with his comment, so you go ahead and do the test. It shouldn't take you too long.
He comes from Oslo, Norway. Consequently, that his note sounds a little different might make some sense if you keep that in mind. On top of this look at the Deity table for non-expansionist tribes and compare to the Sid table... the Deity table for non-expansionist tribe table reads:
gold-5%
maps-5%
warriors-5%
barbs-85%. Now take out the barbs and distribute them evenly over gold, maps, and warriors. In other words, say 5% means 5. and 85% means 5. 85/3 (3 for gold, maps, and warriors)=28 1/3. 5+28 1/3=33 1/3=33.3333. So, if we take the Deity non-expansionist table and take out the barbs and distribute them evenly over all other categories which do not equal 0, we get the Sid expansionist table. Now, that's what his note says. Similarly, look at the Demi-god table for non-expansionist tribes. We have
5 for tech, gold, map, settlers, and warriors. We have 75 for barbs. Evenly distribute those 75 units over tech, gold, map, settlers, and warriors (75/5+5=20) and you have 20 for all those categories. That's the Deity expansionist table. Do the same with the other ones. His note makes sense if you keep this in mind.
To clarify the note it *means* "Expanision civs get the probabilities of 1 level lower *for the base values*, with all barbarians evenly distributed over categories already greater than 0 (except in the warlord case)." Please note his comment holds *for the base values* and *not* for the expansion values. That I didn't get a settler or a tech from those Sid level huts merely confirms this.
By all means test it yourself and then provide evidence of the otherwise. I understand the details of what he meant and his numbers line up with his comment, so you go ahead and do the test. It shouldn't take you too long.
To add to what I said, given that the probability of popping a settler from a hut equals 1/5, and since you either pop a settler or you don't pop a settler from a hut, the expected number of huts which yield a settler for 31 trials E(31 hut pops)=31*1/5=6.2. The variance here V(31 hut pops)=31*(1/5)*(4/5)=125/25=4.96. Since sqrt(V(x))=s(x)... the standard deviation of x, we have s(31 hut pops)=2.22710575 (approximate to the last decimal point. So, (6.2)/2.22710575=2.783882181, so 0 huts in 31 pops lies more than 2 and 1/2 standard deviations away from the mean... E(31 hut pops). So, either you can't pop a settler on Deity and Oystein's comment applies *to the base values*... or I had a wildly improbable string of hut pops.
Sashie VII
Balance of Power
You can still get barbs by settling next to huts. The factor for popping barbs is that you have military units.
To avoid barbs:
1. You must be expansionist, or
2. You must not have any military units at the time of popping, or
3. You can surround the 8 tiles around the hut before popping, so that even if you get barbs, they have nowhere to appear.
To avoid barbs:
1. You must be expansionist, or
2. You must not have any military units at the time of popping, or
3. You can surround the 8 tiles around the hut before popping, so that even if you get barbs, they have nowhere to appear.
Similar threads
- Sticky
