Peaceful win conditions in Civ are fairly complex production functions, so it's not a surprise that the AI tends to muddle through it.
To optimize them is pretty complicated, but to follow a general set of behaviors that lead to them is much less so. Given the bonuses the AI has (and they are rather crazy in all civ games at high levels) even a rudimentary/canned approach at a given VC should be reasonably dangerous.
the sheer number of variables more or less guarantee that any hard-coded algorithm will specify the optimization problem improperly unless the AI designer can piggyback upon human solutions.
Firaxis seems extremely reluctant to piggyback human solutions, but should they be? For military victorys or diplo manipulation I can't see how you'd set that up (AI manipulating itself = self-selecting a winner), but the constraints to reach space, culture, or "gold" (IE buy out all city states) are relatively straightforward. It should be possible to give it a variable approach within a human framework. Even domination could show at least a rudimentary approach (with all its bonuses, "conquer all" is something guys like Alex should seriously consider).
I suspect the biggest barrier to this was actually the state the game was released in, however. It was so far from what it has become. They can probably make the AI stronger by implementing at least a little piggybacking now. IMO to some extent designers always do that based on what they believe will be effective in-game anyway. As I read your post more carefully, it seems you're actually advocating this in some capacity yourself though.
To put it another way: the primacy of Education isn't great game design from the player's perspective, but it does simplify AI coding.
I wonder. This might be the first civ where conquering massed cities isn't the by-far most dominant strategy. Although calling the happiness mechanic happiness instead of something else threw a good chunk of the fanbase for a loop, it's really the first mechanic that truly penalized wide empires to the extent of de-incentivizing them/making other approaches competitive. The single biggest factor there is the impact going super wide has on happiness --> tech rate. That's a gross oversimplification, but it's what it boils down to. If you could settle/capture 20 cites by 1 AD and hold the happiness enough to keep up in tech + grow those cities, it would be necessarily better just as it was in all of the previous games. Civ V is the first civ game that actually penalized tech rate as the empire grows.
You can debate whether that was a good choice or not, but IMO it's simply a matter of preference, that said its impact on the balance between war and peaceful approaches has been rather profound. "Early war sucks too much now". Perhaps, but how could they possibly make it so that the scale doesn't tip completely in the other direction again? I saw an interesting argument presented along these lines explaining a belief that the honor policy tree can never effectively be balanced, and in the framework of civ V that might actually be true unless its benefits veer away from purely military.
All that is a slight tangent though. You know and I suspect the design team knows the primacy of education. As you say; why is the AI ignoring this?!
However, getting the AI to provide a robust challenge requires it to be able to navigate the set of choices reasonably well; if it can't do that, the only interesting choices to be made involve determining the path to minimize completion time or maximize score.
Hmm, no joke. Still, I don't like the idea of presenting many choices and then making only a few ever be viable. It obsoletes the alternative choices anyway, and then the goal once again becomes minimized completion time/max "score". The existence of variable choice based on situation with incomplete information (while balancing cost for more complete information) is a if not the key element to a game like this being good or not IMO; it's the heart of the "strategy" in TBS. Without it, it really is a numbers game only and not one of identifying situation and making tough decisions. I don't think the #'s should be removed as a critical factor, but I also don't think they should be the sole draw if the graphics and historical theme is stripped away.
I liked Soren's focus on interesting choices and think it showed, however I continue to assert (even against his presentation to the contrary) that his choice with AI was misguided.
I do believe there is a time cost though, the smarter the AI is, even with a really GOOD AI programmer.
We've seen evidence that far more units can be handled arguably as well in less time. The suggestion to use the player turn for computations is a reasonable one also. However, even just basic things like calculating possible worker actions when the human selects the worker (used to happen, don't know if it still does) are really not defensible. At some point you're adding 10 minutes to wait times across a game for such a marginal improvement that most people observing the AI civ on the front end couldn't identify it. Civ simply hasn't put any emphasis on this at all; the theory has been put forth that not enough of the player base cares for them to bother with improving the run speed (I've not polled this directly, but anecdotally it seems I'm in an unfortunate minority, and who knows maybe they *HAVE* done their market research, though I doubt it. That area is a difficult one).
That's probably true, but it's still frustrating to me.