The Definative Guide to Polling

[Almightyjosh]

This is a three step guide to choosing, constructing and interpreting polls. It is somewhat under construction, so be patient. While it is here now, I hope to be able to move it to the polls subforum and sticky it in the future, but not without an appropriate poll of course!!



Don't be thrown off by its length, you don't need to read all of it for any given poll. Just follow the easy questions in the first section and it will guide you through what you need to read!!

This should hopefully be useful to noobs and hacks alike.

Step One: Determining Poll Type

Step Two: Constructing a Poll

Step Three: Interpreting a Poll
Part One
Part Two


The Polling Standards Commission (PSC)

 

[Almightyjosh]

First, some info.
There are essentialy three tpes of poll construct:

a) Yes/No/Abstain (or YNA)
b) Approval (multichoice)
c) Plurality Choice (pick from a list)

And there are certain sub-types as well.
To choose how to set up your poll I have designed this list of questions:

1) Does my poll require simple yes/no answer to a single question?

Yes - It is a YNA Poll, see 'Poll Construcion' section 1
No - It is not a YNA Poll, go to Q2


2) Are all the possiblities mutually possible? ie, could they all happen?
(for example a poll about where we should build embassies)

Yes - It is an Approval Poll, see 'Poll Construction' section 2
No - go to Q3


3) Do you need an initial poll to cut down a HUGE list to a managable one?

Yes - It is an Approval Poll, see 'Poll Construction' section 2
Then when you have a cut down list, run through this whole test again from Q1
No - It is not an approval Poll, go to Q4


4) Do you need people to pick one option from a number of options?

Yes - It is a Plurality Choice Poll, go to Q4a (this is where it gets tricky)
No - I don't know what you are doing. PM it to me, I'll work it out!


4a) Are the options all destinct and seperate, bearing no relation?
(eg an election poll or choosing between forms of government)

Yes - It is a simple Plurality Poll, see 'Poll Construction' section 3a
No - go to Q4b
I don't know - That's OK, ask me or someone else in the PSC


4b) Are the options in the poll gradated from one extreme to another?
(eg. War to Alliance, Tiny Provinces to Huge, One spearman to ten)

Yes - This is a Gradated Poll. see 'Poll Construction' section 2b
No - go to Q4c


4c) Are there groups of options in the poll which are similar, but they are different from each other?

Yes - This is a Plurality Poll between destinct groups of related options go to Q5
No - I don't know what you are doing. PM it to me, I'll work it out!

What in jupiter's name are you talking about? - Does the poll have a couple of answer that require
you to do action A (but disagree on how to go about it) and some others that require
you to do other actions or nothing at all?

For example:
How should get Monarchy?
Buy it, with luxuries
Buy it, with money
Reseach it
Steal it
Not at all


5) Are you sick of this yet?

Yes - go to Q6
No - go to Q6


6) Would this poll be better as two, or even three, polls asking specific questions?

Yes - (recommended) Then split it up run this test again for each poll, it will be easier
No - (you are stubborn) Fine, do it your way, but refer to section 3b of the 'Poll Interpritation' section to interpret your results.


Still have no idea what type of poll you should use? Ask someone in the PSC or PM me (AJ)

 

[Almightyjosh]

How you set up your Poll is determined by what type of poll you are using. So, if you don't already know, try using the questionarre in the 'choosing a poll type' section.

1: YNA
This is the simplest type of poll, just ask a question, and get an answer.

Things to remember:
- Always include and 'Abstain' option. Always.

- Make sure your questions are phrased in the affirmative
eg. don't use: 'should we not have a party?'
use: 'should we have a party?'

- Make sure your answer will be definitive
ie Is there a time contraint? Do you need to be more specific?
don't use: 'should we do this?'
use 'should we do this now?' or 'should we do this before we...?'

2: Approval
This is a multichoice poll. It is used to show approval for a number of possibilities at once, or to cut down a list. Before you start, you need to think of what criteria an option must satisfy to 'win'.

You may say either:
'the top x options will be accepted', so that the top x highest polling options will 'win'. This is best for cutting down lists to managable sizes!
'any option gaining x percentage of the vote will 'win', so that any option that more than x percent of voters approve will 'win'. I would suggest that 51% is a good option! This is very useful for polling a number of things at once, but be carful not to misuse it.

In both cases, x (which represents a number btw) should be predetermined and displayed in the first post.

Another option is an outside constraint like 'we will establish embassies with the top polling option until we hit our 200 gold budget'.

Things to remember
- Always include and 'Abstain' option. Always.

- Check the 'this is a multichoice poll' option!!

- If it is a poll to determine approval for a number of different options (as opposed to cutting a list) make DAMN SURE all of the options can be done without infringing fundamentally on the others.

 

[Almightyjosh]

1: YNA
If a majority of votes cast, excluding abstentions, are cast in favour, then the motion is passed. Otherwise, the motion is lost.

All tied motions are lost (when phrased in the affirmative)

(NB: In some cases, such as ratification of consitutional amendments by the Senate, the requirement is different. This may be a higer propotion of no-abstain votes required to pass the motion or the requirement that yes votes outweigh both no votes and abstentions)


2: Approval (multi-choice)
The 'winners' are selected by one of two means depending on the aim of the poll:

a) By being in a the top x number of choices in terms of votes cast in favour, where x is a predetermined number.
b) By achieving x percentage of positive votes cast where x is a predetermined percentage.

In these polls I think the value of x should be displayed in the first pot.

 

[Almightyjosh]

3: Plurality Choice
Polls from this category fall into three distinct groups, this is complicated, but if we could get it right our polling would be sooo much better.

a) Choosing from Distinct Options
In this case, the option recieving the highest number of yes votes wins, regardless of the total number of votes cast, very simple.

b) Choosing from Distinct groups of Related Options
This is essentially when you are asked to make more than one choice and vote for a best option. The main problem here is that people assume one option must beat all the others outright, this is not true. Consider:

How should get Monarchy?
Buy it, with luxuries - 5 votes
Buy it, with money - 4 votes
Reseach it - 6 votes
Steal it - 1 vote
Not at all - 1 vote

It seems that we should go ahead and research Monarchy, but this is not the case. In fact, more people wished that we buy Monarchy, they just dissagreed on how to go about it. In this case, we should group the two 'Buy it' options together when counting, and (if they win as a group) determine which of that group has won.


c) Choosing from a Gradated List
In this case we choose from a number of options calling for a similar action, but to varying degrees. In this case we must find what I call the 'point of balance' to determine the winning option.

For instance:
How should we deal with the Greeks?
More War
Ceasefire
Peace
ROP
ROP and MPP

These are gradated from one extreme to the other. It is NOT the case that the option recieveing the most Yes votes automatically wins. Take this example:

How should we deal with the Greeks?
More War - 1 vote
Ceasefire - no votes
Peace - 7 votes
ROP - 6 votes
MPP - 3 votes

Rather than looking straight at what option has the most, we look at which 'side' has the majority and at what point that majority ends. We MUST have a ceasefire to have peace, and we must have a ceasefire and peace to have an ROP, etc.

Therefore:
All the people who voted for Ceasfire, Peace, ROP or MPP would support a ceasfire AT LEAST!
Thus more people support a ceasefire that support continued war.

In the same way, those that support 'at least Peace' (voted peace, ROP and MPP) outwiegh those who voted 'No Peace' (ceasfire and war).

AND, although 'Peace' is the highest individual score, more people voted for 'at least an ROP' (ROP and MPP) than voted for 'No ROP' (peace, ceasfire and war).

HOWEVER, less people support an MPP (MPP voters only) than support 'No MPP' (ROP, Peace, ceasfire and war votes all combined).


Yay! Wasn't that all so simple.
Any questions?

 

[Peri]

Congratulations.
This guide is very well constructed. The explanations are clear and instructive.
However I hope the length of the work does not put people off from using it.

 

[Almightyjosh]

Ahhh, but the beauty is that you don't need to read it all, just the sections that relate to the poll you are writing! Thats what the questionarre is for, so you know what type of poll you are working with!

 

[GenMarshall]

Good Job AJ .

 

[Almightyjosh]

Hmm, I know it's quite long, but you could at least read the first line which says don't post here!!

EDIT: Hmm, looks like people read the first line, and the last line! My bad!

dosen't matter, I grabbed all the posts I needed already so post away.

 

[Peri]

My apologies. I'll ask Shaitan to delete my posts.
I thought the 'any questions' line was the invitation to reply that you had told us to wait for.

 

[Cyc]

Don't delete this post! Good work AJ. It's about time we had something like this to work with. Too bad you weren't in DG1

 

[Almightyjosh]

Originally posted by Cyc
Don't delete this post! Good work AJ. It's about time we had something like this to work with. Too bad you weren't in DG1

Didn't notice me there? OK.

Oh, and don't worry about deleting that post Peri, it's my fault for leaving that 'any questions?' smartass line in from a previous incarnation of this guide. I apologise for my abhorrent smarmyness in telling you not to post

 

[Cyc]

Quoting AJ:
Didn't notice me there? OK.
________________________

What do you think? Remember me? I'm the guy who helped you bring your Province to life when you were asking for help.

I was just being a wise guy. Why didn't we see this document in the original PSC? But see, I realized we had to go through all this to come to these conclusions, so I thought I'd poke some fun at ya.

 

[Almightyjosh]

Originally posted by Cyc
What do you think? Remember me? I'm the guy who helped you bring your Province to life when you were asking for help.

Really? You were in DG 1? Funny how some things you just don't remember...
Oh, and thanks for the pointers on the whole gov thing, it worked out just fine! (never had a revolt in my province did I?)

 

[Cyc]

Well that's just because people actually wanted the Province of Kashmir, as opposed to the dustbowl Didn't all your people flee to other Provinces?

 

[Stuck_as_a_Mac]

Praise the lord and pass the paperwork!
A definitive guide!
At cyc- we just all became governors of our own provinces. Post game, we were allies in the civil war.

 

[Cyc]

Really?

 

[Stuck_as_a_Mac]

yea. The UEP was based on Asphinxian citizens who became governors of other provinces. I was Nuova Terra, the large, odd province