[RD] The Democratic Nomination

[onejayhawk]

Hillary announces and is the presumptive winner.

How powerful is her andvantage?

Clinton has pretty much already won the endorsement primary, the all-important pre-voting race to lock up party establishment support. Last time she ran for president, Clinton lost the endorsement primary. By this point in the 2008 campaign, she had only one senator endorse her publicly. According to a CNN count in February, Clinton has already secured endorsements from 27 of 46 Democratic senators. That’s a ton of support so early in the campaign.​

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-hillary-clinton-steamroller-rumbles-to-life/

In another story, Nate Silver assumes she will get the nomination and goes on to talk the general election.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-begins-the-2016-campaign-and-its-a-toss-up/

There may not be much drama, but the big announcement has been made.

J

 

[JollyRoger]

I don't see her not getting the nomination. Her goal should be to stay as low profile as possible until the GOP has made its pick.

 

[onejayhawk]

I don't see her not getting the nomination. Her goal should be to stay as low profile as possible until the GOP has made its pick.

It may have been. Given the polling, she (or Bill) may have reconsidered. We'll never know.

J

 

[Antilogic]

I don't see her not getting the nomination. Her goal should be to stay as low profile as possible until the GOP has made its pick.

She'll parry the worst of the attacks, but otherwise be positive and uplifting while she builds her organization.

 

[KMRblue1027]

I really doubt anyone seriously bothers to contest the primaries. Clinton holds such an astronomical lead at this point she can just build support for the general election and avoid mistakes.

 

[_random_]

I could maybe see Sanders mounting a campaign (probably more out of desire to make a point than serious expectation of winning), but I imagine Hilary will take the nomination pretty handily, barring some vast right wing conspiracy to stop her.

 

[cybrxkhan]

Unless there's some crazy scandal or some sort of freak accident like a giant Godzilla attack on Clinton's home I honestly can't think of a serious contender that has a good chance of beating her. I always thought Cuomo might've been the closest thing to threat for some reason, but he's thrown his support for Clinton. Assuming he makes a go for it, Jim Webb has some name recognition, but I dunno how well that'll work out.

What're the chances of Biden throwing his hat into the ring?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

What're the chances of Biden throwing his hat into the ring?

I'd guess zero. First off, he'd get creamed. Second off, I can't imagine Obama endorsing him over Clinton, which would be a personal embarrassment of monumental proportions. Third, he isn't healthy enough for a presidential campaign.

 

[civman110]

Hillary won't win an election. She's involved in too many scandals and cover-up plus a certain proportion of the population is just sick of her and there is something that many people right and left just find off-putting about Hillary.

Plus politically the US has been moving to the right and will continue to do so while Obama remains in office. The Dems have no one who stands out as a possible good candidate that could win an election.

 

[JollyRoger]

Interesting that you are not coming with a Gallup poll in this thread.

 

[cybrxkhan]

I'd guess zero. First off, he'd get creamed. Second off, I can't imagine Obama endorsing him over Clinton, which would be a personal embarrassment of monumental proportions. Third, he isn't healthy enough for a presidential campaign.

Yeah, those are all good points. I sometimes forget hat Biden is pretty old.

 

[Antilogic]

Sir Gropesalot seems to be on the back burner.

 

[Yeekim]

I support Francis Underwood.

 

[Gucumatz]

^ I would hope many of us would.
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Anyhow, the problem with the Democratic party (well, primarily with its voters) is that it prefers unbridled idealism where possible, sometimes to the detriment of getting things done. While Hillary should win, there is always the risk that another Obama shows up (lets say Warren) and takes the nomination away from her. I think a Warren would still win the general, simply because of the general statistical trends for 2016 - but it would be a risky move that could accidentally give the Republicans the presidency.

It always annoys me when people complain that the two parties are the same or that the two party system is fatally flawed, but if what were the fringes of the Democratic/Republican party became different parties in a multi-party system things would work even less efficiently. Hillary and the democratic party (mostly) as a whole is in the center left, because its the only way to actually get things done in this country. I hope for the sake of the Democratic party that she wins like we all expect her to

 

[Commodore]

Hillary won't win an election. She's involved in too many scandals and cover-up plus a certain proportion of the population is just sick of her and there is something that many people right and left just find off-putting about Hillary.

Plus politically the US has been moving to the right and will continue to do so while Obama remains in office. The Dems have no one who stands out as a possible good candidate that could win an election.

As much as I personally don't want Hillary to be president, this post seems to just be wishful thinking about what you hope will happen, rather than any kind of informed analysis of the current political climate in the US.

Hillary may be wrought with scandals, but she doesn't come off as completely insane like most of the Teahadist Republican candidates do. When compared to the likes of Ted Cruz, Hillary is infinitely more palatable to the general public than any Republican candidate.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

As much as I personally don't want Hillary to be president, this post seems to just be wishful thinking about what you hope will happen, rather than any kind of informed analysis of the current political climate in the US.

Hillary may be wrought with scandals, but she doesn't come off as completely insane like most of the Teahadist Republican candidates do. When compared to the likes of Ted Cruz, Hillary is infinitely more palatable to the general public than any Republican candidate.

I wouldn't even give credence to the "wrought with scandals". When the party of 'massaged years of intelligence gathering to stampede the country to war' says 'but, but, but...you used the wrong e-mail server!!!!!' it isn't scandalous, it is hilarious.

 

[onejayhawk]

I am reminded of 1996, when Bob Dole finally won the nomination. Essentially, no one ran against him.

J

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I am reminded of 1996, when Bob Dole finally won the nomination. Essentially, no one ran against him.

J

Different situation. There were candidates who probably could have beaten Dole, and knew it, they just didn't see the point of going up against a popular incumbent on a sure loser. Dole was too old to wait and had earned a shot, even if it was a long shot. With McCain in 08 we talked about the Dole campaign a lot, but I don't see much of a parallel here.

 

[BvBPL]

Had to double check to make sure this wasn't a necro from 2007.

Everyone assumed Clinton was a shoe-in then as well.

 

[Commodore]

Different situation. There were candidates who probably could have beaten Dole, and knew it, they just didn't see the point of going up against a popular incumbent on a sure loser. Dole was too old to wait and had earned a shot, even if it was a long shot. With McCain in 08 we talked about the Dole campaign a lot, but I don't see much of a parallel here.

Especially since Hillary actually has a real chance of winning.