The Democratic Nomination

[onejayhawk]

This is not a preference poll. Who do you expect to win.

Open 30 days.

J

 

[rah]

Too soon to predict. Maybe in three more months.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Buttigieg

 

[Hygro]

Yang!

(Shake them dice and roll em!)

 

[Bridog7]

Bernie; the only person in the race who supports medicare for all, the only person in the race not taking money from wealthy a holes and super pacs, and the only person who is actually gonna try to create change, but of course not on his own, alongside with everybody that voted for him. He's not your typical I'll (pretend to) represent you, you voted for me, I won, now go away and vote for me again in 4 years. Both parties aren't scared of his policies, because you can run on those policies and still lose, but however they're scared of the movement he is helping create. More and more people running on the same policies Bernie has been running on, and they're winning. At local levels, statewide levels and now in congress with people like AOC and Ilhan Omar. As for the other candidates, Biden is being propped up by landline polls that polling mostly people over 45 to say "hey Biden is the front runner, c'mon vote for your uncle Joe," and would just get thrown badly by Trump especially with his creepy past of touching and sniffing people which would just be played on Trump ads. Warren can't even handle any critique of her whatsoever, so how would she do against Trump in a debate; poorly. And Phony Pete is just an outright fraud that is saying nice things in 100 languages while telling people that corporate money is ok and medicare 4 all is impossible except for those who want it. I'd rather listen to Koala make horrible noises on a megaphone than listen to these fake candidates.

 

[Gori the Grey]

especially with his creepy past of touching and sniffing people which would just be played on Trump ads

Huh? The Pussy-Grabber in Chief would get play attacking someone for sniffing?

 

[Berzerker]

Sanders

Warren is slipping, Bernie needs to square off with Biden asap

I'm assuming the primaries wont be rigged in Biden's favor

 

[Camikaze]

Biden has proved to be fairly resilient - it's not like he's lacked moments which, for a lot of people, are virtually disqualifying, but he's retained his support throughout and is now ahead in 3 of the first 4 states, then a bunch after that. His fundraising improved in the last quarter, which was a big weakness for him.

It looked for a while that Warren might be able to take the lead, but she faded, and there's still no sign that Sanders is capable of growing his support beyond his 15-20% base (he has also been remarkably consistent, but not in a great way).

 

[Hamid.H]

Huh? The Pussy-Grabber in Chief would get play attacking someone for sniffing?

yes he would because trumptard incels think sexual assault is alpha while sniffing is harmless and beta.

Sanders

Warren is slipping, Bernie needs to square off with Biden asap

berine could end biden easily which would be fine by me because biden is a rabid racist posturing as a progressive, but berine wont do it for some strange reason. some people might say its because hes too decent of a human being to play dirty but i say theres no such thing as dirty when youre fighting racists and bigots.

hh

 

[Narz]

Biden has proved to be fairly resilient - it's not like he's lacked moments which, for a lot of people, are virtually disqualifying, but he's retained his support throughout and is now ahead in 3 of the first 4 states, then a bunch after that. His fundraising improved in the last quarter, which was a big weakness for him.

It looked for a while that Warren might be able to take the lead, but she faded, and there's still no sign that Sanders is capable of growing his support beyond his 15-20% base (he has also been remarkably consistent, but not in a great way).

If Biden & Sanders go head to head his support will blossom over 20%. I suspect Warren & Yang supporters will support him more than Biden.

 

[Berzerker]

Huh? The Pussy-Grabber in Chief would get play attacking someone for sniffing?

The Dems need to claim the moral high ground, the Clintons and Biden to a lesser extent had/have trouble on that matter.

Biden has proved to be fairly resilient - it's not like he's lacked moments which, for a lot of people, are virtually disqualifying, but he's retained his support throughout and is now ahead in 3 of the first 4 states, then a bunch after that. His fundraising improved in the last quarter, which was a big weakness for him.

It looked for a while that Warren might be able to take the lead, but she faded, and there's still no sign that Sanders is capable of growing his support beyond his 15-20% base (he has also been remarkably consistent, but not in a great way).

I think Sanders got in the mid 40s against Hillary, while both are in the Senate Biden's the establishment candidate. Sanders is just splitting the anti vote with too many other people, that'll change as they drop. If its between Biden, Sanders and Warren too long into the primaries then Biden has the edge.

 

[MagisterCultuum]

I'd personally prefer Tulsi Gabbard, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, or even Julain Castro (who just dropped out), but think Bernie Sanders is the most likely winner.

The party establishment could still throw it to Biden, or Warren, especially if the race is close enough for a second ballot where superdelegates can vote, but that would be a very bad idea.

I am confident that Trump would easily win reelection against Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, or Warren, but that as Sanders/Gabbard ticket could crush him.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

It looked for a while that Warren might be able to take the lead, but she faded, and there's still no sign that Sanders is capable of growing his support beyond his 15-20% base (he has also been remarkably consistent, but not in a great way).

Consistently middling support was Trump's path to the nomination.

 

[Berzerker]

I am confident that Trump would easily win reelection against Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, or Warren, but that as Sanders/Gabbard ticket could crush him.

You know, I could vote for that ticket. Gabbard would cut into Trump's support from the military and gain the anti-war crowd the Dems abandoned in 2016 while Sanders goes after his populist base.

 

[Bridog7]

Huh? The Pussy-Grabber in Chief would get play attacking someone for sniffing?

Yes because that line of attack will no longer work on Trump when his opponent does it too. Kind of like how Hillary was defending Bill who sexually assaulted numerous people. So she couldn't come out that strong against Trump without looking like a hypocrite. If Biden gets the nomination you're going to see Biden sniffing compilations 24/7 from the Republican ads. Oh and the stylings of Biden going on about how kids would touch his hairy legs and "we learned about roaches...I love kids jumping on my lap."

 

[MagisterCultuum]

Biden is basically Diet Trump. He is not as bad as Trump on much if anything, but he is close enough that he cannot effectively attack many of Trump's weaknesses and he will not appeal to many people who could vote for Trump himself. He has a long history of tough on crime positions, pushing Ronald Regan to the right. He was of course known as the Senator from MBNA because he was basically owned by the banks and credit card companies headquartered in his state and did whatever they wanted to keep Americans deep in debt.

Bloomberg is basically a parody of the big government nanny state liberal elitists who thinks he knows better than everyone else and that he has a duty to punish poor people for making bad decisions even when they are hurting no one but themselves. He is huge war hawk, especially when it comes to Iran or anyone else that right wing Israelis do not like. He is just about as bad as Trump when it comes to racism. He continued to support Stop and Frisk until it was time to declare his candidacy, well after it was proven to target minorities unfairly. He and Trump both insisted that the Central Park Five deserved to be punished even after it was definitively proven that they were innocent.

Warren is very popular with registered democrats and hated by almost everyone else. Independents dislike her even more than Republicans do. She takes Trump's bait too easily and falls into traps rather than sticking to points were she could be strong. Sometimes she is over-coached and insists on sticking to her talking points even when doing so makes her sound dishonest. Her plan to require two separate votes for her healthcare plan is a joke, and her attempt to weasel out of accusations of increasing middle class taxes meant embracing a very regressive system that forces people to pay a set about regardless of their income.She really does not have any foreign policy of her own but just goes along with the consensus of establishment experts that are widely trusted despite their terrible track record.

Buttigieg is terrible. He is mostly an empty suit who has shown he is more than willing to change his mind on almost anything in order to try to triangulate into what he thinks will be a popular position. He has often changed policies to do what his donors want. Even the racist cops in his home town knew they could control him by going through his donors. He is easily angered and does not react well when attacked. Almost the only thing he really seemed to believe in is the importance of a foreign policy dominated by establishment groupthink of the intelligence community.

I have not yet been able to find Pretty Purple Bunny's platform.

 

[Estebonrober]

Biden is basically Diet Trump. He is not as bad as Trump on much if anything, but he is close enough that he cannot effectively attack many of Trump's weaknesses and he will not appeal to many people who could vote for Trump himself. He has a long history of tough on crime positions, pushing Ronald Regan to the right. He was of course known as the Senator from MBNA because he was basically owned by the banks and credit card companies headquartered in his state and did whatever they wanted to keep Americans deep in debt.

Bloomberg is basically a parody of the big government nanny state liberal elitists who thinks he knows better than everyone else and that he has a duty to punish poor people for making bad decisions even when they are hurting no one but themselves. He is huge war hawk, especially when it comes to Iran or anyone else that right wing Israelis do not like. He is just about as bad as Trump when it comes to racism. He continued to support Stop and Frisk until it was time to declare his candidacy, well after it was proven to target minorities unfairly. He and Trump both insisted that the Central Park Five deserved to be punished even after it was definitively proven that they were innocent.

Warren is very popular with registered democrats and hated by almost everyone else. Independents dislike her even more than Republicans do. She takes Trump's bait too easily and falls into traps rather than sticking to points were she could be strong. Sometimes she is over-coached and insists on sticking to her talking points even when doing so makes her sound dishonest. Her plan to require two separate votes for her healthcare plan is a joke, and her attempt to weasel out of accusations of increasing middle class taxes meant embracing a very regressive system that forces people to pay a set about regardless of their income.She really does not have any foreign policy of her own but just goes along with the consensus of establishment experts that are widely trusted despite their terrible track record.

Buttigieg is terrible. He is mostly an empty suit who has shown he is more than willing to change his mind on almost anything in order to try to triangulate into what he thinks will be a popular position. He has often changed policies to do what his donors want. Even the racist cops in his home town knew they could control him by going through his donors. He is easily angered and does not react well when attacked. Almost the only thing he really seemed to believe in is the importance of a foreign policy dominated by establishment groupthink of the intelligence community.

I have not yet been able to find Pretty Purple Bunny's platform.

I agree except you are really harsh on warren here. I did switch support to Bernie because she got wabbly on M4A.

 

[Camikaze]

If Biden & Sanders go head to head his support will blossom over 20%. I suspect Warren & Yang supporters will support him more than Biden.

I have no doubt it would, but in that scenario it would have to blossom to over 50%. That's a harder ask. He was unable to achieve that last time against a historically unpopular candidate, and his numbers this time around demonstrate a considerable inelasticity.

I think Sanders got in the mid 40s against Hillary, while both are in the Senate Biden's the establishment candidate. Sanders is just splitting the anti vote with too many other people, that'll change as they drop. If its between Biden, Sanders and Warren too long into the primaries then Biden has the edge.

More Warren voters would go to Biden than Sanders, but by the same token, if Buttigieg or Bloomberg dropped out, their votes would be more likely to go to Biden. However, it's not entirely clear cut. These numbers from December suggest that only Sanders is only the second choice for 30% of Warren supporters (as compared to 19% who prefer Biden, and 15% who prefer Buttigieg). The next highest share of second choice votes for Sanders is amongst Biden supporters - meaning he wouldn't get them in a one-on-one. I guess a decent hot take is that ideological lanes will firm as the primaries continue, so you would expect the share of second choice votes to Sanders from Warren to increase (and vice versa), but again the same applies for Buttigieg and Bloomberg.

One of the key unknowns may be whether or not Buttigieg voters like Warren as a second choice because they are "anyone but Biden" or "anyone but Sanders".

Consistently middling support was Trump's path to the nomination.

But that middling support was higher than anyone else's middling support (with some early exceptions). The consistency of support for Biden and Sanders is notable, but the key difference is that at every step of the way Biden's support has been 50-100% higher.

 

[AdamCrock]

Democracy is a lie ...



Very sorry USians - I just couldn't resist dropping that line given the thread name This was just this one thing Won't happen again until the next elections I promise

 

[Gori the Grey]

yes he would because trumptard incels think sexual assault is alpha while sniffing is harmless and beta.

This is actually an insightful analytical point

The Dems need to claim the moral high ground, the Clintons and Biden to a lesser extent had/have trouble on that matter.

And in regard to this, I should think that sniffing does represent morally higher ground than grabbing.