The goal of this thread is to showcase the actual profit of markets, grocers, and fairs. Unlike most resources (civics, training, etc), money is directly equivalent to resources through market prices. This means that we can get an exact comparison between a worker building the market line for money, versus building stone quarries.
By the end of this thread, I hope to convince you that the market line is actually very poor at generating profit, and should be avoided in a great majority of circumstances.
Scenario: Market then Grocer then Fair
We will assume a single worker. Now the worker can either build stone quarries (basic flat land quarries which have a base of 5 stone per turn) or the market series of buildings. We will run the scenario for a market, a market + a grocer, and a market + a grocer + a fair. In comparison, we will make the equivalent number of stone quarries (including adjacencies as we are making them in a circle). Our goal is to calculate X, the amount of gold per turn our city would need to generate for the market series of buildings' gold boost to be MORE PROFITABLE than our basic 5 stone per turn quarries. We will run the scenario for 50 turns after the last building finishes to give our buildings some time to accumulate.
Getting our Formulas (Heavy Math)
Breakeven Formula:
Market Series Profit = Market Building Base Cost + Market Building Ongoing Cost + Quarry Stone Production - Quarry Base Cost
Market Only
Time Markers:
Turn 1 - Start Quarry / Start Market
Turn 4 - Quarry 1 upkeep begins
Turn 5 - Market Upkeep begins
Turn 55 - Scenario Ends
Quarry Base Cost: 1 quarries * 20 iron = 20 iron
Market Base Cost: 80 wood
Ongoing Costs: (55-5) * 2 wood = 100 wood
Ongoing Quarry Profit: (55-4) * 5 stone = 255 stone
Breakeven Formula: .20 * X * 50 turns = 255 stone + 180 wood - 20 iron
10X = 255 stone + 180 wood - 20 iron
X = 25.5 stone + 18 wood - 2 iron
Market + Grocer
Time Markers:
Turn 1 - Start Quarry / Start Market
Turn 4 - Start Quarry 2, Quarry 1 upkeep begins
Turn 5 - Start Grocer, Market Upkeep begins
Turn 7 Start Quarry 3, Quarry 2 upkeep begins
Turn 10 Grocer upkeep begins / Quarry 3 upkeep begins
Turn 60 Scenario Ends
Quarry Base Cost: 3 quarries * 20 iron = 60 iron
Market + Grocer Base Cost: 80 wood + 100 wood = 180 wood
Ongoing Costs: (60-5) * 2 wood + (60 - 10) * 5 wood = 360 wood
Ongoing Quarry Profit: 3 turns * 5 stone + 3 turns * 5.5 stone * 2 quarries + 50 turns * 6 stone * 3 quarries = 978 stone
Breakeven Formula: .20 * X * 5 turns + .50 * X * 50 turns = 978 stone + 540 wood - 60 iron
26X = 978 stone + 540 wood - 60 iron
X = 37.62 stone + 20.77 wood - 2.31 iron
Market + Grocer + Fair
Time Markers:
Turn 1 - Start Quarry / Start Market
Turn 4 - Start Quarry 2, Quarry 1 upkeep begins
Turn 5 - Start Grocer, Market Upkeep begins
Turn 7 Start Quarry 3, Quarry 2 upkeep begins
Turn 10 Start Fair, Grocer upkeep begins / Start Quarry 4, Quarry 3 upkeep begins
Turn 13 Start Quarry 5, Quarry 4 upkeep begins
Turn 16 Fair and Quarry 5 upkeep begins
Turn 66 Scenario Ends
Costs
Quarry Base Cost: 5 quarries * 20 iron = 100 iron
Market / Grocer / Fair Base Cost: 80 + 100 + 120 = 300 wood
Ongoing Costs: 5 turns * 2 wood + 6 turns * 5 wood + 50 turns * 9 wood = 490 wood
Profits
Quarry: 5 stone * 3 turns + 5.5 stone * 2 quarries * 3 turns + 6 stone * 3 quarries * 3 turns + (6 stone * 2 quarries * 3 turns + 6.5 stone * 2 quarries * 3 turns) + (6 stone * 1 quarry + 6.5 stone * 2 quarries + 7 stone * 2 quarries) * 50 turns = 15 + 33 + 54 + 75 + 1,650 = 1,827 stone produced
Breakeven formula
.2X * 5 turns + .5X * 6 turns + X * 50 turns = 790 wood - 100 iron + 1,827 stone
54X = 1,827 stone + 790 wood - 100 iron
X = 33.83 stone + 14.63 wood - 1.85 iron
Summary of Results
So now we have our easy to use formulas:
Market Only: X = 25.5*stone price + 18*wood price - 2*iron price
Market + Grocer: X = 37.62*stone price + 20.77*wood price - 2.31*iron price
Market + Grocer + Fair: X = 33.83*stone price + 14.63*wood price - 1.85* iron price
From these, all we need to do is pick the market price of the various resources, and we can then calculate X for that scenario. Lets look at three scenarios (but you have the formulas, feel free to use any market numbers you feel are appropriate):
Market Favorable (we are generally selling our stone and wood at half prices, and iron we are buying)
Stone: 3 gold
Wood: 3 gold
Iron: 8 gold
Common Middle Game Scenario (stone and wood we are generally buying, and the price is starting to go up. Iron is relatively cheap)
Stone: 8 gold
Wood: 8 gold
Iron: 4 gold
Scarce Resources (stone and wood are heavily bought, and up quite a bit in price. Even iron is scarce, and we are buying it as well)
Stone: 13 gold
Wood: 13 gold
Iron: 8 gold
Market Favorable
Market Only: 114.5 GPT
M + G: 157 GPT
M + G + F: 131 GPT
Common Middle Game
Market Only: 340 GPT
M + G: 458 GPT
M + G + F: 380 GPT
Scarce Resources
Market Only: 550 GPT
M + G: 741 GPT
M + G + F: 615 GPT
Conclusion
Frankly, even under market favorable conditions, I have many cities that fall under that threshold. I am literally looking at a game I just finished on the Great Difficulty, so I'm literally seeing the X of each of my cities on the last turn, and 3 out of 8 of them don't even qualify for a Market Only. Now as prices get higher....X gets crazy high, and often only the money capital might have the numbers needed to justify these buildings. You can also see that the Grocer is particularly bad, it costs a lot both in terms of time to build it, and the resources needed to construct it. Compared to just building quarries, it takes a lot of base to make the grocer worth it.
And of course, we are assuming basic quarries. If your workers could choose some mountain quarries, the opportunity cost of just building basic buildings almost doubles.
In general, I believe these numbers show that in general, the market line of buildings are just not worth constructing. If you want to build buildings to generate more money for your civ, building stone quarries is superior in the majority of cases. Lastly, feel free to comment if you think my market prices are "bonkers". If you have a set of prices you see in your game that you think are more realistic, feel free to put them on the thread. We will put them in the formulas and see what your X value is.
By the end of this thread, I hope to convince you that the market line is actually very poor at generating profit, and should be avoided in a great majority of circumstances.
Scenario: Market then Grocer then Fair
We will assume a single worker. Now the worker can either build stone quarries (basic flat land quarries which have a base of 5 stone per turn) or the market series of buildings. We will run the scenario for a market, a market + a grocer, and a market + a grocer + a fair. In comparison, we will make the equivalent number of stone quarries (including adjacencies as we are making them in a circle). Our goal is to calculate X, the amount of gold per turn our city would need to generate for the market series of buildings' gold boost to be MORE PROFITABLE than our basic 5 stone per turn quarries. We will run the scenario for 50 turns after the last building finishes to give our buildings some time to accumulate.
Getting our Formulas (Heavy Math)
Spoiler :
Breakeven Formula:
Market Series Profit = Market Building Base Cost + Market Building Ongoing Cost + Quarry Stone Production - Quarry Base Cost
Market Only
Time Markers:
Turn 1 - Start Quarry / Start Market
Turn 4 - Quarry 1 upkeep begins
Turn 5 - Market Upkeep begins
Turn 55 - Scenario Ends
Quarry Base Cost: 1 quarries * 20 iron = 20 iron
Market Base Cost: 80 wood
Ongoing Costs: (55-5) * 2 wood = 100 wood
Ongoing Quarry Profit: (55-4) * 5 stone = 255 stone
Breakeven Formula: .20 * X * 50 turns = 255 stone + 180 wood - 20 iron
10X = 255 stone + 180 wood - 20 iron
X = 25.5 stone + 18 wood - 2 iron
Market + Grocer
Time Markers:
Turn 1 - Start Quarry / Start Market
Turn 4 - Start Quarry 2, Quarry 1 upkeep begins
Turn 5 - Start Grocer, Market Upkeep begins
Turn 7 Start Quarry 3, Quarry 2 upkeep begins
Turn 10 Grocer upkeep begins / Quarry 3 upkeep begins
Turn 60 Scenario Ends
Quarry Base Cost: 3 quarries * 20 iron = 60 iron
Market + Grocer Base Cost: 80 wood + 100 wood = 180 wood
Ongoing Costs: (60-5) * 2 wood + (60 - 10) * 5 wood = 360 wood
Ongoing Quarry Profit: 3 turns * 5 stone + 3 turns * 5.5 stone * 2 quarries + 50 turns * 6 stone * 3 quarries = 978 stone
Breakeven Formula: .20 * X * 5 turns + .50 * X * 50 turns = 978 stone + 540 wood - 60 iron
26X = 978 stone + 540 wood - 60 iron
X = 37.62 stone + 20.77 wood - 2.31 iron
Market + Grocer + Fair
Time Markers:
Turn 1 - Start Quarry / Start Market
Turn 4 - Start Quarry 2, Quarry 1 upkeep begins
Turn 5 - Start Grocer, Market Upkeep begins
Turn 7 Start Quarry 3, Quarry 2 upkeep begins
Turn 10 Start Fair, Grocer upkeep begins / Start Quarry 4, Quarry 3 upkeep begins
Turn 13 Start Quarry 5, Quarry 4 upkeep begins
Turn 16 Fair and Quarry 5 upkeep begins
Turn 66 Scenario Ends
Costs
Quarry Base Cost: 5 quarries * 20 iron = 100 iron
Market / Grocer / Fair Base Cost: 80 + 100 + 120 = 300 wood
Ongoing Costs: 5 turns * 2 wood + 6 turns * 5 wood + 50 turns * 9 wood = 490 wood
Profits
Quarry: 5 stone * 3 turns + 5.5 stone * 2 quarries * 3 turns + 6 stone * 3 quarries * 3 turns + (6 stone * 2 quarries * 3 turns + 6.5 stone * 2 quarries * 3 turns) + (6 stone * 1 quarry + 6.5 stone * 2 quarries + 7 stone * 2 quarries) * 50 turns = 15 + 33 + 54 + 75 + 1,650 = 1,827 stone produced
Breakeven formula
.2X * 5 turns + .5X * 6 turns + X * 50 turns = 790 wood - 100 iron + 1,827 stone
54X = 1,827 stone + 790 wood - 100 iron
X = 33.83 stone + 14.63 wood - 1.85 iron
Summary of Results
So now we have our easy to use formulas:
Market Only: X = 25.5*stone price + 18*wood price - 2*iron price
Market + Grocer: X = 37.62*stone price + 20.77*wood price - 2.31*iron price
Market + Grocer + Fair: X = 33.83*stone price + 14.63*wood price - 1.85* iron price
From these, all we need to do is pick the market price of the various resources, and we can then calculate X for that scenario. Lets look at three scenarios (but you have the formulas, feel free to use any market numbers you feel are appropriate):
Market Favorable (we are generally selling our stone and wood at half prices, and iron we are buying)
Stone: 3 gold
Wood: 3 gold
Iron: 8 gold
Common Middle Game Scenario (stone and wood we are generally buying, and the price is starting to go up. Iron is relatively cheap)
Stone: 8 gold
Wood: 8 gold
Iron: 4 gold
Scarce Resources (stone and wood are heavily bought, and up quite a bit in price. Even iron is scarce, and we are buying it as well)
Stone: 13 gold
Wood: 13 gold
Iron: 8 gold
Market Favorable
Market Only: 114.5 GPT
M + G: 157 GPT
M + G + F: 131 GPT
Common Middle Game
Market Only: 340 GPT
M + G: 458 GPT
M + G + F: 380 GPT
Scarce Resources
Market Only: 550 GPT
M + G: 741 GPT
M + G + F: 615 GPT
Conclusion
Frankly, even under market favorable conditions, I have many cities that fall under that threshold. I am literally looking at a game I just finished on the Great Difficulty, so I'm literally seeing the X of each of my cities on the last turn, and 3 out of 8 of them don't even qualify for a Market Only. Now as prices get higher....X gets crazy high, and often only the money capital might have the numbers needed to justify these buildings. You can also see that the Grocer is particularly bad, it costs a lot both in terms of time to build it, and the resources needed to construct it. Compared to just building quarries, it takes a lot of base to make the grocer worth it.
And of course, we are assuming basic quarries. If your workers could choose some mountain quarries, the opportunity cost of just building basic buildings almost doubles.
In general, I believe these numbers show that in general, the market line of buildings are just not worth constructing. If you want to build buildings to generate more money for your civ, building stone quarries is superior in the majority of cases. Lastly, feel free to comment if you think my market prices are "bonkers". If you have a set of prices you see in your game that you think are more realistic, feel free to put them on the thread. We will put them in the formulas and see what your X value is.
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