The opportunity cost is getting your monument or first archer later. Yes, there is a cost to that. About one in ten deity games, an AI will enhance before I have a pantheon. That means I have wasted 7-8 early turns building something of almost no worth. Yes, that is pretty crippling. If you avoid the early shrine because the risk that one in ten games you don't get a pantheon, well that at least is assessing the risk part accurately.The opportunity cost plus the risk/reward just isn't worth it. Even when you do found one, you may miss out on the good beliefs anyway.
But just run the math on getting a pantheon. You will always be able to pick something that buffs your dirt -- because God King is always available as a last resort. What is the minimum number of turns you can expect to benefit from pantheon. I think 50 turns is conservative.
Just to have round numbers, lets say the shrine completes at T20, takes 30 turns to spawn a pantheon, and provides God King for 50 turns to T100.
The shrine cost you 40 hammers and 80 gold in maintenance, providing 80 faith.
God King got you 50 hammers, 50 gold, 50 faith, 50 Culture, and 50 beakers.
At T100, for the 30 gold, your net gain is 10 hammers, 130 faith, 50 culture, and 50 beakers. How is that not a good reward for your investment?
And that is without founding. On a standard map with the standard number of civs, it is impossible to miss out on the good beliefs -- because there are plenty of them! Founding is a bonus in addition to the pantheon benefits.
I agree that both of those are high risk approaches, and a poor choice for most Deity games most of the time.But say chopping stonehenge or mass building shrines? Way too many resources for my play style.
A T80 religion is about average in my experience. But after the building the shrine, you play the same as always. No special actions at all. The faith accumulation is all passive. So, absolutely, double your empire size, worker count, and eliminate a border rival in the meantime.The OP even admits in most scenarios it will be well past turn 80 before you get religion online... hell by that time I could have doubled my empire size, my worker count, and eliminated a border rival.