UK Politics V - Have We Got News For You

[EnglishEdward]

No, I understand the point. But Labour already holds such a high number of councillors that any %-based metric is a

It is precisely because Labour already holds such a high number of councillors, and had more
candidates standing in more seats than the other categories, in particularly the Independents;
that a simple count of seats won is misleading in terms of assessing party popularity (e.g. love for).

That is why I used the percentage metric, because I think it is more objective.

 

[Gorbles]

It is precisely because Labour already holds such a high number of councillors, and had more
candidates standing in more seats than the other categories, in particularly the Independents;
that a simple count of seats won is misleading in terms of assessing party popularity (e.g. love for).

That is why I used the percentage metric, because I think it is more objective.

I think a combination of metrics would be the most objective, but I'm no statistician, I'm just guessing. Each type of stat gives a different insight, imo.

However, % gains are something I'm very used to in software engineering. And when we use them, you can't take them in isolation. Generally the % change is weighted higher, the higher the base % is.

e.g. 5% improvement over 0% is considered poor, but 5% improvement over 85% is considered good - even though the % number hasn't changed. But also in "soft" logic, 5% from 0 might be considered good in terms of UK politics because breaking into a positive threshold could be good news for a party.

This is why I think different ways of looking at the stats provides different insights.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Where is Samson when you need him?

Now according to the Guardian, the Liberal Democrats have done best in council elections over the last five years.

Lib Dems gain most council seats in last five years, party’s data shows

Party has gained 768 seats, Labour 545 and the Greens 480, while the Conservatives has lost 1,783

www.theguardian.com

Lib Dems gain most council seats in last five years, party’s data shows

Party has gained 768 seats, Labour 545 and the Greens 480, while the Conservatives has lost 1,783

 

[Akka]

That's some serious debacle for the Tories.
I wonder if that reaches the level of "historical defeat" at that point, or if such turns of fortune happens at least from time to time ?

 

[EnglishEdward]

The conservatives are in a hole and still digging.

Attempts to fight the next general election as a
culture war are unlikely to assist them.

For instance on gender neutral toilets.

Government to lay new law to halt the march of gender-neutral toilets in buildings

New requirements will be brought forward for single sex toilet facilities in new non-domestic buildings to alleviate safety, privacy and dignity concerns.

www.gov.uk

 

[Bonyduck Campersang]

Hmmm...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787431805957616124

 

[Samson]

We cannot afford the basic health services we managed after WW2 when we still had rationing, but we can afford SIX new "Multi Role Support Ships" for the Royal Marines. These are not defensive weapons, right, nor are them the sort of thing we might need against Russia or China. How on earth is the current government making spending decisions like this?

 

[Gorbles]

We cannot afford the basic health services we managed after WW2 when we still had rationing, but we can afford SIX new "Multi Role Support Ships" for the Royal Marines. These are not defensive weapons, right, nor are them the sort of thing we might need against Russia or China. How on earth is the current government making spending decisions like this?

Someone in the Cabinet has a buddy or relative in the relevant contract, you can basically guarantee it.

And / or a play for the rah rah oorah BRITAIN FIRST vote given how weak the Tories' electoral position is.

 

[Nick723]

We cannot afford the basic health services we managed after WW2 when we still had rationing, but we can afford SIX new "Multi Role Support Ships" for the Royal Marines. These are not defensive weapons, right, nor are them the sort of thing we might need against Russia or China. How on earth is the current government making spending decisions like this?

You say this, but actually health spending today is vastly more than it was post WW2, and defence spending is vastly less (as proportion of budget / GDP).

That’s not to comment on these specific ships, which I know nothing about

 

[Kyriakos]

We cannot afford the basic health services we managed after WW2 when we still had rationing, but we can afford SIX new "Multi Role Support Ships" for the Royal Marines. These are not defensive weapons, right, nor are them the sort of thing we might need against Russia or China. How on earth is the current government making spending decisions like this?

 

[Lexicus]

You say this, but actually health spending today is vastly more than it was post WW2, and defence spending is vastly less (as proportion of budget / GDP).

That’s not to comment on these specific ships, which I know nothing about

How much of the per capita increase is because the NHS is increasingly paying for the shareholder profits of private service providers, I wonder?

 

[Samson]

You say this, but actually health spending today is vastly more than it was post WW2, and defence spending is vastly less (as proportion of budget / GDP).

That’s not to comment on these specific ships, which I know nothing about

This is not really the point. We have a lame duck government and a country that desperately needs all sorts of stuff, and what they are spending money on is being able to put British soldiers on bits of land that are not ours. That is the priorities of this lot. Remember that when you place your cross.

 

[Nick723]

This is not really the point. We have a lame duck government and a country that desperately needs all sorts of stuff, and what they are spending money on is being able to put British soldiers on bits of land that are not ours. That is the priorities of this lot. Remember that when you place your cross.

Well you may disagree with this, but in light of the current security situation in Europe I am all for significantly increased defence spending. Building a more capable deterrent is a small price in my view vs the extraordinary cost (and not just money) we would incur to repel further Russian invasions into Europe.

In a democracy of course opposing views can live side by side, and as you say we’ll have a chance to vote soon enough…

I won’t be voting for the conservatives, but it won’t be because of their defence policies!

How much of the per capita increase is because the NHS is increasingly paying for the shareholder profits of private service providers, I wonder?

Indeed - I wonder as well. This heavily redacted report has ROCE (Return on capital employed) of private healthcare providers in the 15-20% range, significantly above the government cost of borrowing.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5329dc25ed915d0e5d0000f7/130301_profitability_wp_non_confidential.pdf

 

[Samson]

Well you may disagree with this, but in light of the current security situation in Europe I am all for significantly increased defence spending. Building a more capable deterrent is a small price in my view vs the extraordinary cost (and not just money) we would incur to repel further Russian invasions into Europe.

How is a landing ship for marines going to repel further Russian invasions into Europe? It sounds to much more like threatening poor bits of the world that could not adequately defend against an amphibious landing.

 

[Lexicus]

You wanna deter Russia you gotta start building millions of shells and not cosplay Ruling the Waves again

 

[Nick723]

You may well be right, that these are not the things we need. The MoD has a horrendous record on procurement / equipment choice.

But they sound more useful to me than aircraft carriers at least and hopefully there is some logic behind this move.

Back on the politics side, indeed this seems like another desperate move from the Tories to try and find something that will stick on Labour (having tried virtually everything else). I don’t think it’ll work, Keir will just say he’d increase defence spending too if it comes to that.

But you can see why they’re trying this line, as defence was definitely a weak point under Corbyn (certainly for me, the main reasons I didn’t vote for Corbyn were defence and foreign policy). So they’ll try and make it stick with Starmer as well.

 

[EnglishEdward]

I wonder what the specification of a "Multi Role Support Ship" is these days.

Without knowing that, I have difficulty in commenting more meaningfully.

 

[really]

HNLMS Karel Doorman (A833) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

This would be a modern example.

Ireland is considering getting a scaled down version. It would be more suitable for humanitarian missions than our current patrol type vessels.

 

[Kyriakos]

I was expecting the King in Yellow.

 

[Samson]

View attachment 691204

I was expecting the King in Yellow.

I am sure it says more about me that the picture, but in this the only bits that stand out are the face (indicating the person the Charles Windsor?) and the butterfly (indicating nature?) and everything else, including symbols of rank and weapons of war, are fading out into the background.