Well assuming a game with only base features, you could go for any victory condition. They should theoretically all be equally difficult to achieve.
But we don't have only base features do we? So what affects which victory condition is a better bet? I am assuming Continents/Standard size/Standard speed.
-Which civ you are
-Terrain
-Location of enemy civs/CS
-Type of enemy civs/CS
-Goodie huts
You know which civ you are on turn 0. So you can play to the strengths of your civ, and pick a victory condition your civ is good at.
The other 4 factors can be influenced by your actions. If you build a scout, you will be able to know more of that information and you will get it sooner. This should let you choose a victory condition earlier, AND make it easier to compound the strengths of your civ with those of your environment. Clearly playing to as many strengths as possible will make you most likely to win.
Personally, if I get a civ that has strengths going tall, I do so. If the terrain favors wide, I am simply not taking advantage of it. But worse would be to prepare to go wide and then realize I have no room. Or prepare to conquer and realize I have no enemies!
If the civ favors conquering or going wide, I build a scout and check on the other 4 factors. If I have room to expand, I will go wide, and if I have enemies, I will either go tall or build an army.
If I choose to go tall, I almost always choose Cultural. But sometimes science.
If I go wide, I will either conquer lategame for Domination (which I've never actually achieved, I always win some other way first) or sit and get science.