2013 NFL Season

When your first offensive snap goes into your own endzone... that is a precursor for getting your butt kicked.

That can not happen!

It didn't have to be, though - could have just been early jitters. To me the precursor was Thomas getting blasted by Chancellor on the first pass play sending the signal "You may catch the pass, but you'll regret doing so.".
 
It wasn't even a big hit really. If you are going to throw those 5yd passes against a good defense... you might get blasted every time. Denver could run and throw down-field... at least in their other games. I realize he needed to get the passes out pretty quick... but that was overdoing it IMO.

I told my daughter that if Denver didn't win the toss they might loose.

They needed to kick off, stop Seattle, get the punt, drive down for a TD.
That would have made a ball-game IMO. Maybe not.

I was super-pissed the last game of the year was such a stinker :cry: .
 
He didn't do the downfield passes very often because that's the easiest way to kill yourself against what is commonly regarded as one of the best secondaries in years. His bro threw five interceptions against the same team in the same stadium only a few months back.
 
He liked to pop it over the middle for short 5 yarders, especially in the second half of the game. I haven't followed the Broncos recently, is this a common strategy for them?
 
Pangur Bán;13041749 said:
He didn't do the downfield passes very often because that's the easiest way to kill yourself against what is commonly regarded as one of the best secondaries in years. His bro threw five interceptions against the same team in the same stadium only a few months back.

To be fair, throwing 5 interceptions is "every other week" for Eli.
 
I feel like the line makers and prognosticators who favored Denver might have been fooled by the stomping Denver put on NE. NE was in reality a flawed team playing an away game against a team whose strengths played against their weaknesses well. That game and the whole Peyton mystique sort of put an unrealistic gloss on Denver I think, and everyone forgot about teams like the old-school Ravens, who had great defenses that just squashed anyone.

Read nothing into the linemakers -- their job is to create a line such that roughly half the people will bet on either side. Well, everyone kept taking Denver, even when they moved the lines as much as ~5 points from where they started (IIRC).

And in the end, the house won big, since almost no one bet on this outcome.
 
To be fair, throwing 5 interceptions is "every other week" for Eli.

He's had a bad season this year, but he had only 20 in his whole season before that game. Seahawks added a quarter to that record in one game.

He liked to pop it over the middle for short 5 yarders, especially in the second half of the game. I haven't followed the Broncos recently, is this a common strategy for them?

They like to mix rushing and medium-range passes in most of the games I've seen, but in this game the LoB made long passes too risky, and a combination of Seattle's defense and having to catch up made rushing less attractive.
 
Pangur Bán;13041795 said:
He's had a bad season this year, but he had only 20 in his whole NFL career before that game. Seahawks added a 5th to that record in one game.

Um, what? He's thrown 171 picks.

Eli's notorious for being an interception machine. He threw 27 this year alone and he's lead the league in INTs twice iirc? He has a lot of tipped passes that get picked but some of those are still his fault and he just has horrible, horrible streaks.

I'm not taking anything away from Seattle, just saying Eli throwing a bunch of picks is not at all unusual. :p
 
Um, what? He's thrown 171 picks.

Eli's notorious for being an interception machine. He threw 27 this year alone and he's lead the league in INTs twice iirc? He has a lot of tipped passes that get picked but some of those are still his fault and he just has horrible, horrible streaks.

Technology problems sorry, you responded too quickly to a garbled post.

Anyway, the Seahawks got his career one-game record, so as bad as he often is 5 interceptions is still worth talking about.
 
Read nothing into the linemakers -- their job is to create a line such that roughly half the people will bet on either side. Well, everyone kept taking Denver, even when they moved the lines as much as ~5 points from where they started (IIRC).

And in the end, the house won big, since almost no one bet on this outcome.

Like you said, the line was intentionally set to have the bets split evenly.

Maybe an individual bookmaker did well or badly, but overall it would be the usual small profit.

Not many people expected that outcome, but plenty expected Seattle to win a close game.
 
I felt like the AFC was mediocre all year, but I didn't realize how truly awful it was even at the top. Every division outside of the West was garbage but I at least thought the Patriots and Broncos were legit. I should have realized something was up when Talib went down in the AFC Championship and yet Denver was still pissing around and letting the Pats stay in a game they had no business competing in with that receiving corps.

I would give any of the NFC playoff teams except maybe Philly a shot against Denver, frankly, if you assume Rodgers was fully healthy and up to speed(which he didn't seem to be against SF). I think San Francisco, Carolina, and New Orleans would have all given Denver a big challenge and I'd give them all a great shot to win. Saints and 49ers both got stomped in the regular season, but in the playoffs San Francisco played really well at Seattle until they horribly screwed up the 4th quarter and their clock management. New Orleans' offense took a half to get going but their defense kept things close, making Russell Wilson have the worst statistical game of his career, and Brees didn't have any interceptions, let alone dumb ones. Denver was just dominated for a full 60 minutes on, if not a truly "neutral" site, a much more neutral one than CenturyLink. Hell, after what I just watched, throw Arizona in there lol.

SSS.

Going into the playoffs the Broncos were statistically the 2nd best team in the NFL of that year by DVOA and EPA, both of which are weighted for strength of schedule considerations. Every team in the NFL can have an off-day - the Broncos were just unlucky enough to have that happen on the most important game of the season. I wouldn't call the Broncos a bad team, or even a mediocre team, but rather, a very very good team which had the misfortune of having nothing go in their favor last night.
 
Plus a lot of injuries.

Spoiler revisiting predictions, for the lulz :
NFC

East
Washington Racists 9-7
Dallas Cowboys 7-9
New York Giants 7-9
Philadelphia Eagles 6-10

No shame; I picked it mostly by throwing darts. C

North
Green Bay Packers 12-4
Chicago Bears 9-7

Detroit Lions 7-9
Minnesota Vikings 6-10

I think the predictions would have been spot on in terms of approximate wins, had Rodgers not broken a collarbone Order of finish was spot on. C-

South
Atlanta Falcons 11-5
Carolina Panthers 9-7
New Orleans Saints 9-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8

Ahahahahahaha. D

West
Seattle Seahawks 11-5
San Francisco 49ers 10-6

St. Louis Rams 9-7
Arizona Cardinals 8-8

Cards were better than the Rams. Otherwise, solid. B-

AFC

East
Miami Dolphins 9-7
New England Patriots 8-8
Buffalo Bills 6-10
New York Jets 1-15

F

North
Cincinnati Bengals 12-4
Baltimore Ravens 9-7

Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8
Cleveland Browns 3-13

More or less right. A-

South
Houston Texans 10-6
Indianapolis Colts 10-6

Tennessee Titans 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12

Did anyone see the Texans' implosion coming? D-

West
Denver Broncos 14-2
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
San Diego Chargers 6-10
Oakland Raiders 5-11

Wha-bam. Not quite right with the approximate wins, but order of finish perfect. A-

Playoffs:
Wild Card
49ers @ Racists
Bears @ Falcons
Ravens @ Texans
Colts @ Dolphins

Man, 3/4s of the teams aren't even right. NC

Divisional
49ers @ Packers
Falcons @ Seahawks
Texans @ Bengals
Colts @ Broncos

Not... bad...? C

Conference Titles
Seahawks @ Packers [Vengeance, Justice, Fire and Blood.]
Bengals @ Broncos

I'm gonna give myself a pass on this.

Super Bowl
Packers vs Broncos

Well...

Awards, etc.
AP NFL MVP: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos

Hey! A+

Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Collarbone. D+

Defensive Player of the Year: Geno Atkins, DT, Cincinnati Bengals

CollarACL. D+

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers

A+!

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Who? F-

Comeback Player of the Year: Danny Amendola, WR, New England Patriots

Eh... D+

Super Bowl MVP: RANDALL COBB, WR, Green Bay Packers

lol.

First Pick of the 2014 NFL Draft: Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville) to the New York Jets
Second Pick: Jadeveon Clowney (South Carolina) to the Cleveland Browns

NOT YET OUT OF THE QUESTION.

Aaron Rodgers' Statline: 4,300 yards, 37 TD, 11 INT

Well if we prorate his 8 game sample over a 16 game season...

5,072 yards, 34 TD, 12 INT

I'm gonna count that as a C+.
 
And to back up Bill Simmons' assertion that God hates Cleveland - Browns hire Kyle Shanahan as OC.
 
Pangur Bán;13041749 said:
He didn't do the downfield passes very often because that's the easiest way to kill yourself against what is commonly regarded as one of the best secondaries in years. His bro threw five interceptions against the same team in the same stadium only a few months back.
He liked to pop it over the middle for short 5 yarders, especially in the second half of the game. I haven't followed the Broncos recently, is this a common strategy for them?
Pangur Bán;13041795 said:
He's had a bad season this year, but he had only 20 in his whole season before that game. Seahawks added a quarter to that record in one game.



They like to mix rushing and medium-range passes in most of the games I've seen, but in this game the LoB made long passes too risky, and a combination of Seattle's defense and having to catch up made rushing less attractive.
Actually, Fetushead has tailored his game over the last two years to chiefly incorporate short and midrange passes. (Kirk Goldsberry is awesome.) Many people believe that this indicates that either age or surgery has eroded his ability to throw well downfield with a combination of accuracy and power. The results from the game bear that out: when he did throw downfield, he tended to either overthrow semi-open receivers or throw so slowly that the Hags could pick him off. Part of the credit for that goes to SEA's ability to play more physically in the SB than they would in other games, letting them screw up receivers' routes with DPI, but most of the fault still lies with Manning. (And Denver's defense, of course, did the same thing.)

It's not necessarily that the Hags defense stopped the Broncos' ability to throw deep. All credit to one of the best defenses in NFL history ('91 Eagles and Redskins might be better but it's pretty close) but honestly the Hags didn't do much to take away deep passes. Carroll's vaunted Cover 3 was abandoned for most of the game in favor of leaving Thomas deep with press coverage on the outside, a sort of Cover 1 that implicitly recognized that Manning would tend to throw short and left open the possibility of 'breaking' the coverage with four verts or something similar. The Broncos couldn't, or wouldn't capitalize on that because Fetushead didn't make deep throws and because the whole team made a variety of other dumb errors throughout the game. And yeah, insert Cliff Avril Cliche Bukkake here, too; the SEA line did a very good job of screwing up deeper pass plays.

Injuries were pretty important, too, like NK said. For the Super Bowl, the Broncos were more injured than they'd been all season, which forced scrubs into starting positions (especially on the defense and offensive line). By comparison, Seattle was as healthy as it'd been all season, and even added Percy Harvin in for good measure because why the hell not. That advantage eroded very slightly over the course of the game when the likes of Sherman got hurt, but it really wasn't enough to change how the game would work by then.

Also, PB, way to check off most of the stereotypes of an obnoxious bandwagon fan. Well acted. :)
Read nothing into the linemakers -- their job is to create a line such that roughly half the people will bet on either side. Well, everyone kept taking Denver, even when they moved the lines as much as ~5 points from where they started (IIRC).

And in the end, the house won big, since almost no one bet on this outcome.
Admittedly, the SB is one of the few events all year where the house specifically sets the line to mirror public betting patterns. Most games don't see that at all.
And to back up Bill Simmons' assertion that God hates Cleveland - Browns hire Kyle Shanahan as OC.
Yeah, 'cause BS is the only person who says that, ever.
 
Great to win a superbowl when you're young enough to enjoy it in grand fashion and old enough to appreciate it. I lived through a few niners superbowls living in the bay area when i was pint sized and that doesnt compare.
 
Actually, Fetushead has tailored his game over the last two years to chiefly incorporate short and midrange passes. (Kirk Goldsberry is awesome.) Many people believe that this indicates that either age or surgery has eroded his ability to throw well downfield with a combination of accuracy and power. The results from the game bear that out: when he did throw downfield, he tended to either overthrow semi-open receivers or throw so slowly that the Hags could pick him off. Part of the credit for that goes to SEA's ability to play more physically in the SB than they would in other games, letting them screw up receivers' routes with DPI, but most of the fault still lies with Manning. (And Denver's defense, of course, did the same thing.)

It's not necessarily that the Hags defense stopped the Broncos' ability to throw deep. All credit to one of the best defenses in NFL history ('91 Eagles and Redskins might be better but it's pretty close) but honestly the Hags didn't do much to take away deep passes. Carroll's vaunted Cover 3 was abandoned for most of the game in favor of leaving Thomas deep with press coverage on the outside, a sort of Cover 1 that implicitly recognized that Manning would tend to throw short and left open the possibility of 'breaking' the coverage with four verts or something similar. The Broncos couldn't, or wouldn't capitalize on that because Fetushead didn't make deep throws and because the whole team made a variety of other dumb errors throughout the game. And yeah, insert Cliff Avril Cliche Bukkake here, too; the SEA line did a very good job of screwing up deeper pass plays.

Injuries were pretty important, too, like NK said. For the Super Bowl, the Broncos were more injured than they'd been all season, which forced scrubs into starting positions (especially on the defense and offensive line). By comparison, Seattle was as healthy as it'd been all season, and even added Percy Harvin in for good measure because why the hell not. That advantage eroded very slightly over the course of the game when the likes of Sherman got hurt, but it really wasn't enough to change how the game would work by then.

Also, PB, way to check off most of the stereotypes of an obnoxious bandwagon fan. Well acted. :)

Admittedly, the SB is one of the few events all year where the house specifically sets the line to mirror public betting patterns. Most games don't see that at all.

Yeah, 'cause BS is the only person who says that, ever.

Other than the ignorant personal attacks, this is a good post--but it doesn't disagree with what I said. My specific point was on the reluctance to take long throws against SS's secondary, which PM himself admitted. Sherman was only thrown at 4 times in the whole post-season.
 
Congrats Mrt. :cool:

Peyton made his living with 4 wide, 2 WR on one side running a long & short hook patterns. The other side's WR run post patterns or go patterns.

Denver did not change anything THROUGHOUT the game. After your WR get knocked around and you can't convert anything over 7 yds with the passing game--- TRY SOMETHING ELSE.

I don't know if the coaches were saying 'we need to try this' and Peyton said 'no I got it' or what??? Alot of coaches just suggest anyway to these veterans of high standing.

All season Peyton goes to the line, calls out line blocking assignments, calls/changes plays, and looks over the defense BEFORE the ball is snapped. Why not this game... why did the center snap it so soon? I believe someone like Brady or Marino would have blown him out right then and there on the sideline. Just CAN NOT HAPPEN.

Welker was the only one that looked in his element. He is one of the best option-route runners in history... maybe they should have tried ONCE or TWICE!!!! The Seahawks were playing the same defense they always did with the umbrella zone underneath.
I bet the WRs had to draw straws in the huddle to do those short crossing routes. Short straw goes across the middle to meet Mr.Cameron and Co. :eek:


They were getting 6 and 7 yds on most running plays. Why didn't they help against AVRIL??? They were not throwing to the TE... leave him to block the guy. He was in Peyton's grill all night. He was MVP IMO. Harvin broke their back tho.

Heck... try anything but what they did. :mad:

Denver should be banned from the SuperBowl for a few years as punishment for such a poor showing. That stunk.
 
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