The IMF, Rubles and the Russian Economy

[Lexicus]

I most probably have a little more information about it than "expert economists" actively participating in this thread.

Honestly curious: what makes you think so?

 

[REDY]

Well you post here predictions based on your government lies. If you have some inside info, lets post it.

I personally think that Russia can survive like that for many years. There will be no growth but Russians will swallow it. They swallowed much worse things.
I agree that world needs Russian fossils and if there will be not any technological or political action Russia will still have enough resources for wars. So far the world did not cut Russia out... after all of this.

 

[Lexicus]

I agree that world needs Russian fossils

The thing about this is, there won't be much of a world left if this is still true for very much longer.

 

[Crezth]

The thing about this is, there won't be much of a world left if this is still true for very much longer.

True but if we take this tack, we really need to vastly expand the scope of the conversation beyond what Russia is doing wrong.

 

[REDY]

The thing about this is, there won't be much of a world left if this is still true for very much longer.

Then the world is over, nobody outside west will leave fossils unless the alternatives will be much cheaper.
Russia is also top regards nuclear energy. Lot of plants in Eastern europe were built by Russians.

 

[Joij21]

If you want a neutral indicator for how a nations economy is doing, look at the performance of its currency.

The Ruble has dropped 26% in value to the Dollar the last 8 months alone.

Putin wanted China to pay for oil in Rubles to artificially prep up his own currency; China obviously told him nope, we'll pay you in Yuan. So, China is paying for Russian imports with Yuan, illustrating the future status of Russia as a Chinese vassal state.

I'm going to be a lot more cynical guys and just say that this only represents the Ruble falling in value compared to other currencies which would only impact Russia's ability to conduct foreign trade (which Russia doesn't seem too reliant on), the more important indicator is how the currency is doing domestically within it's own market and whether or not domestic prices for basic necessities is inflating.

You can have a currency that is absolutely terrible on the international money markets but does fine domestically due to prices for various things being overall cheaper. I believe China despite intentionally having a less valuable currency internationally in trade has something like a better mileage per unit of currency if spent domestically thus making China have a larger economy overall compared to the United States when this adjustment is added into calculations. Also a cheaper currency internationally isn't bad if your goal via trade is to be an export based economy, internationally your currency having substantial value only matters if you wish to have an import based economy taking advantage of cheaper labor and lack of pollution controls overseas.

 

[REDY]

I'm going to be a lot more cynical guys and just say that this only represents the Ruble falling in value compared to other currencies which would only impact Russia's ability to conduct foreign trade (which Russia doesn't seem too reliant on), the more important indicator is how the currency is doing domestically within it's own market and whether or not domestic prices for basic necessities is inflating.

You can have a currency that is absolutely terrible on the international money markets but does fine domestically due to prices for various things being overall cheaper. I believe China despite intentionally having a less valuable currency internationally in trade has something like a better mileage per unit of currency if spent domestically thus making China have a larger economy overall compared to the United States when this adjustment is added into calculations. Also a cheaper currency internationally isn't bad if your goal via trade is to be an export based economy, internationally your currency having substantial value only matters if you wish to have an import based economy taking advantage of cheaper labor and lack of pollution controls overseas.

"What is the difference between dollar and ruble? One dollar."
You are right, but in Russian minds there is not crisis until the the ruble is falling.
The central bank had one job, keep ruble stable. When they failed in it its clear that something bad is happening.

 

[Hygro]

That Russia's economy has done alright all things considered is a testament to how mismanaged it was pre-war. That you could lose that much access to real economic efficiencies but government stimulus more than counteracts that loss highlights how much potential was being squandered year after year. This is not at all unique to Russia.

Honestly curious: what makes you think so?

I can get a better read on the US economy just by vibing in rush hour traffic than many sources.

 

[Hygro]

Look, from my perspective you are all "butting" genocide all the time when you start in on half-baked notions about what "we" are going to do to save the world. Really? You're gonna save the world? With what, the UK government? Please.

It's called critical analysis. And please stop with that "illegal invasion" nonsense. What's a legal invasion? Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia? Uh, no, not technically. The incipient ECOWAS invasion of Niger? Oh it's a coalition of nations! That means it's good, right?

Look, it's about understanding the international perspective and taking responsibility for being a high-ranking citizen of the empire. My voice counts for more than a Ukrainian's. I'm sorry, but it does. And I am not going to use it providing implicit support to the hawks that run the biggest imperial war machine in history (interestingly: neither Russian nor Chinese). You want to say I'm giving license to Russia? What, for criticizing the notion of an incipient NATO involvement in Ukraine? I say it's the consumerist pigs who refuse to find their own moral center who keep the war machines running.


Moderator Action: Split from Ukraine War thread #7. Birdjaguar

Yes peace by surrender to paranoid patriarchs. Vote no on divorce while you're at it. Keep turning that cheek until you need an exorcist.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

But as far as I remember, CFC consensus back then was that growth of ruble was a sign of Russia's imminent collapse.

You have a bad memory.

I most probably have a little more information about it than "expert economists" actively participating in this thread.

So, how is the Russian economy doing?

 

[saamohod]

My voice counts for more than a Ukrainian's.

Just because your worldview is so deranged that you perceive any evil committed in the world to be the fault of Americans, no matter the amount of atrocities russia keeps doing on a daily basis (with impunity, just because they can)?
No, I don't think so.

I'm sorry, but it does.

You aren't sorry. You are enjoying your anonymous cynicism.

 

[EvaDK]

We already know what the conclusion and/or official statement will be from the Russian Central Bank meeting; because it was likely dictated before the meeting took place.

'The Russian economy is strong; Western sanctions have no effect, the Ruble will be strengthened.... oh and by the way, we have to increase the interest rates, but no worries.'

Someone will be officially blamed for the deroute of the Ruble, though everyone must know it happens entirely as a result of Putin's decision making, but Putin is untouchable, so someone else will have to be this months sacrificial lamb. Thus functions Russia.

 

[FriendlyFire]

please stop with that "illegal invasion" nonsense. What's a legal invasion? Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia? Uh, no, not technically. The incipient ECOWAS invasion of Niger? Oh it's a coalition of nations! That means it's good, right?

Hitler invade Russia ? Hitler was just protecting the German speak Volga people and protecting the free peoples of Europe from the Communist
I cannot use my brain to figure out when a war is justified, that means Hitler good right ?

 

[FriendlyFire]

By this neutral indicator, Russian economy was performing exceptionally well in first half of 2022. Because rub/usd exchange rate gained roughly 40% in that period.
But as far as I remember, CFC consensus back then was that growth of ruble was a sign of Russia's imminent collapse.

I remember when Russian was proclaiming that Russian rubles was a sign of the failure of sanctions and strength of the economy
And Putin brilliant economic leadership

 

[Joij21]

What I want to know is whether or not inflation is being experienced in Russia to any degree for things like food, utilities, rent, services, transportation, etc. Then we can discern whether or not their people are actually feeling the crunch of this war, otherwise it's just drones.

 

[Lexicus]

That Russia's economy has done alright all things considered is a testament to how mismanaged it was pre-war. That you could lose that much access to real economic efficiencies but government stimulus more than counteracts that loss highlights how much potential was being squandered year after year. This is not at all unique to Russia.

I think the fact that Russia is big also matters here. The international issues, currency problems etc matter much more for a country dependent on imports, which Russia is largely not, at least as regards basic necessities (sophisticated electronics and other things needed for advanced weapons may be a different story).

Anyway, I don't think we quite have enough information out of Russia to say whether government stimulus has counteracted the losses. The Russian government's numbers certainly can't be trusted.

But I don't disagree in principle. Liberals tend to place too much importance on the forex performance of a currency as a measure of economic health. It matters very little for countries whose citizens are mostly not doing a lot of foreign business.

 

[Crezth]

Hitler invade Russia ? Hitler was just protecting the German speak Volga people and protecting the free peoples of Europe from the Communist
I cannot use my brain to figure out when a war is justified, that means Hitler good right ?

You know, it's really telling that everyone in the English-speaking world immediately goes to "But what about Hitler?" to justify any kind of war whatsoever going on in any other different context anywhere, at any time. Argentina tries to hit the Falklands? "Nazi Germany of South America." A country that is under embargo tries to secure nuclear weapons? Well they're part of the authoritarian AXIS of evil.

You guys have fallen for this propaganda bit hook, line, and sinker. Nobody fought Hitler out of the goodness of their heart. That had nothing to do with anything. Nobody is fighting Putin out of the goodness of their heart either. And unlike y'all I don't think it's worth my life and treasure fighting someone else's adventures while there's still the class war raging on in my home country.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

You guys have fallen for this propaganda bit hook, line, and sinker.

Educate us oh wise one. Waken the sheeple.

 

[Joij21]

You guys have fallen for this propaganda bit hook, line, and sinker.

Yes, extraterrestrial from the planet Pluto, please tell us Earthlings the flaws of our ways.

 

[Hygro]

I think the fact that Russia is big also matters here. The international issues, currency problems etc matter much more for a country dependent on imports, which Russia is largely not, at least as regards basic necessities (sophisticated electronics and other things needed for advanced weapons may be a different story).

Anyway, I don't think we quite have enough information out of Russia to say whether government stimulus has counteracted the losses. The Russian government's numbers certainly can't be trusted.

But I don't disagree in principle. Liberals tend to place too much importance on the forex performance of a currency as a measure of economic health. It matters very little for countries whose citizens are mostly not doing a lot of foreign business.

I mean, the "collapse" of the ruble is like, just as much a good thing as a bad thing. My first hunch is that the long term effects of being sanctioned outweigh the benefits of a government finally investing in itself. But there's so much squandered potential in Russia thanks to its corrupt leadership I could see a virtuous cycle of competence emerging given necessity. I could also see it collapsing even worse.

You know, it's really telling that everyone in the English-speaking world immediately goes to "But what about Hitler?" to justify any kind of war whatsoever going on in any other different context anywhere, at any time. Argentina tries to hit the Falklands? "Nazi Germany of South America." A country that is under embargo tries to secure nuclear weapons? Well they're part of the authoritarian AXIS of evil.

You guys have fallen for this propaganda bit hook, line, and sinker. Nobody fought Hitler out of the goodness of their heart. That had nothing to do with anything. Nobody is fighting Putin out of the goodness of their heart either. And unlike y'all I don't think it's worth my life and treasure fighting someone else's adventures while there's still the class war raging on in my home country.

I made this thread for you and you didn't vote https://forums.civfanatics.com/thre...ink-of-the-democrats-while-growing-up.684718/