I haven't heard any plan for horse city that leads me to believe archery shouldn't be our next tech. If we don't settle on horse river, we have to have the wheel to connect the horses. That's a non-starter - the time it would take to tech the wheel and found the city is just too long. And that city would be a huge drain on our economy - no commerce producing tiles, and without sailing it's forever and a day from our capital.
So, I'm leaning toward producing a PPP that includes the following features:
1) Fogbust the north. Bring back the exploring warrior. Build another warrior in Hjärtet.
2) Defend ourselves. Research archery. Queue up archers in our border cities and put one turn of hammers into them so they are available to whip.
3) Research sailing. This map is crying out for The Great Lighthouse. Let's build it sooner rather than later. A lighthouse in our capital is a good thing. All our cities will benefit from the trade routes. The plains hill island could be a monster with a lighthouse and the Moai Statues. With three gem mines and seafood and lakes, we'll be researching the wheel and pottery and writing before you know it.
4) Prepare to build city 4 on an island. Set up for a settler and a boat as soon as sailing is researched. Forget those horses. They aren't worth it. They're a trap.
5) Build another worker in the capital. This land is going to take a lot of developing. There are trees to chop, hills to mine, and eventually roads and cottages to build.
Reactions?
Moai statues is usually a bad investment in sgotm. It takes too many hammers and you recover the investment quite slowly working a few coastal tiles. If you anticipate a 300t game, then ok, you are anticipating wooden spoons.
The availability of stone could change the economics of Moai, but I don't see any about.
We need to explore more to know how much it would cost to fogbust versus defend. Capitol should whip/overflow units or lighthouses into the GLH and build workers and settlers to fade the misery caused.
I don't like making assumptions about locations of other civs. Nothing indicates Willem is on our landmass. Even shaka's scout could have been placed on our continent while his settler is not. Mapmakers are devious but do not try to deceive you from good strategy, so I would say we share landmass with shaka is a good assumption. The rest... we have no idea. Civs can have contact without being on the same land. Civs can have contact by intentional or accidental mapmaker shenanigans.
We will start facing barb axes soon, too, as all ai are likely to get bw in short order. We need archery, as the mapmakers have certainly manipulated strategic resources (always), and we cannot guess where iron might be.
Fogbusting and exploring are synergetic, and that is the best approach. warriors are cheap.
I would not settle an island for its defense capabilities but for its trade routes. If we are having our cities attacked by units, we are probably losing. We are surely not taking the initiative. But without exploring, we do not know much about what good initiatives to take.
GLH would be
very useful - but much less so if we do not have sea lanes to foreign cities. Oracle is also very useful, even if we only get metalcasting--barb galleys will come if we don't fogbust the coasts.
Exploring far with workboat is potentially a big advantage. The window of opportunity is not infinite to do so. But if we go sailing-masonry, we can have galleys... which we need to settle an island anyhow.
If I were (as an evil mapmaker) to guess where to put the iron on this map, it would be in the horse area or in another crappy city site area.
Strategy really depends on the land, and we don't see enough of it.
So much for my random thoughts...
I agree with Chris general outline for a PPP, minus any mention of Moai.