Operation Sealion (What If Successful)

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Would the capture of London be the end of the Allies in 1940-41?

Would Churchill be proven correct that if the island was subjugated and starving that its "empire beyond the seas armed and guarded by the Royal Fleet would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the New World, in all its power and might come to the rescue and the liberation of the Old"?

I think it would be safe to assume that the United States would attempt to take back Great Britain before France.

Remember, there is no wrong or right answer, so lemme hear it!

Sealion was pretty much an impossible goal.

First, the Germans had absolutely NO way of getting troops across the channel. Their plan was to try and use barges, river barges, to ship troops across the channel. First off, the number of troops that would be needed to even take and hold the beach would've been enormous in number; the German plan hoped to get 16 divisions across in the first month.

This is all assuming, of course, that they Germans could even get across the channel. The most obvious barrier to this is the Royal Navy. The British Home Fleet outnumbered German surface vessels by at least ten to one in the Fall of 1940, and there were another five British battleships in production at the time; two entered service before the year was out.

The argument is sometimes made that "massive airpower could keep the RN out of the channel long enough to get troops across." First, you must realize that this is complete hogwash. The ineffectiveness of German pilots against ships was demonstrated effectively during the Dunkirk evacuation; though there were thousands of dive bombers strafing and dive-bombing the British ships, only one was sunk, of the many hundreds there.

However, assuming that somehow, some way, the Germans were able to keep the Royal Navy at bay, it's quite likely that the flotilla would have foundered in the channel itself. As I said before, the Germans had no landing ships, they intended to use confiscated river barges to ship men and materiel across. I don't know how familiar you are with the Channel's weather, but it's pretty much never favorable, and it's never, ever calm-watered. But again, assuming the Germans managed to get across the channel, how many men were they going to land? As I noted above, they hoped to get 16 divisions across in the first month. The standing British Army in September 1940 was at least of equal size, including two new armored divisions, of which creation was begun on the German model during Fall WeiB. In addition, the British were fully prepared to use poison gas on the beaches to defend the home island, if the Germans ever landed.

As if the death stroke had not already been dealt, there was no way the Luftwaffe was going to beat the RAF, either. British plane production already outpaced German production in 1940, and most of them were the new Spitfires, which put the RAF on a more equal footing with the BF-109s. Further to the point, however, is that the entire RAF was not engaged in the Battle of Britain; only the bare minimum needed to stave the Germans off was sent southeast; the rest was kept at airbases in the Midlands, out of the reach of German fighters. Granted, their bombers could reach that far, but only sheer madness would precede an unescorted bomber raid against an airfield; perhaps their only chance would be at night, but then there's a quite high chance that the bombers might never find nor hit their intended targets in the first place.

Had the Germans kept up the bombing of the RAF airfields, rather than switching to the cities as they did, the RAF would have simply withdrawn to the Midlands airfields to regroup long before it was truly "beaten" in the South. Because of this capability, the Luftwaffe really had no chance of ever besting the RAF permanently, and thus, we can deduce that RAF air cover would be present during any German attempt to "scare off" the Royal Navy, or during any beach landing.

So in conclusion, Sea Lion couldn't have been successful. It's not really a what if, it's all but fact; unless you journey into lands of the truly fantastic.


Could the Soviet Union hold it's own?

Yes. They did it for practically three years anyway. The troops in the West wouldnt've made enough of a difference had they been sent East, and lend-lease aid, which came mostly from the United States anyway, really only accounted for 15% of Soviet production at the highest point. That, and they only real thing the Soviets used of ours, other than food, of course, was the Studabaker trucks.
 
Right. I see Churchhill devouring the NAZIs and becoming a 100 foot monster.
What? I don't see the reason for such a smartarse remark.

Besides, considering Churchill's legendary paunch, he may have at least pulled off the devouring part.
 
Canada Australia and NZ were all independant nations well before WWII. The fact that they were originally British colonies meant that there was a certain element of loyalty but at no time was their political agenda driven by the British War Cabinet.
In fact when Japan entered the war the Australian Prime Minister essentially withdrew all Australian troops from the British theatres of war and redirected them to South East Asia and the Pacific. This was a great break with tradition and irked Churchill no end but I think is a pretty fair example of how the Commonwealth nations were not wedded to Britain.

What I meant was that their foreign affairs were still formally linked to London, and that when the UK declared war, they had to come in whether they liked it or not. They happened to like it, so it was a moot point.

Also, we must remember that the British section of the Manhattan Project was in Canada; these countries were still part of the British Empire (the Commonwealth having not yet been established as such). Furthermore, Canada would have been more than happy to host a UK government-in-exile and generally be seat of the Empire while the British Isles were in German hands.
 
What? I don't see the reason for such a smartarse remark.

A smartarse is better than a dumbarse.

I don't see Churchhill breaking out of a prison cell. He was too old and overweight to do much of that.

The only way we will know if Sealion may or may not have been a German success, is to plug the nations military might into a war game system and play the battles out. We'll have to do this many times and with different game systems.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have some very important historical games...I mean research to play.
 
Yes. They did it for practically three years anyway. The troops in the West wouldnt've made enough of a difference had they been sent East, and lend-lease aid, which came mostly from the United States anyway, really only accounted for 15% of Soviet production at the highest point. That, and they only real thing the Soviets used of ours, other than food, of course, was the Studabaker trucks.

Yeah lend-lease allowed the counterattack, the soviets managed to stall the Nazis on their own for the most part. Not to mention if the germans had used their Rhine barges on Seelowe then German industrial and logisitical capability against the soviets would have taken a big hit considering how important that transport system is :lol:
 
As a qualified Warfare Officer who drives modern warships I can tell you that this is more than achievable. To this day ships still practise manoeuvring to avoid aircraft conducting a "bomb toss". We don't kid ourselves, it is difficult to pull off but it was proven to work in the Falklands against fast jets. It also failed against aircraft in the Falklands with some amazing photos of live bombs embedded between decks. Back in the 1940's ships were no slower and no less manoeuvrable but the aircraft were slower and bomb sight technology certainly was a lot rougher. I would actually fancy my chances as a ship driver in a 4 boiler destroyer circa 1942 against a Jap pilot rather than today in a 1990's Gas Turbine Frigate (FFG) against fighter bomber with iron bombs.

Haha, this is amazing. Surely the bombers could just drop payloads on all possible escape directions around the ship, though? I suppose that would be a tremendous cost in wasted ammunition and a big tactical headache -- not very likely to happen.
 
Stalin was massively popular, while also massively feared.
Hmmm...could the "massively feared" bit have a direct connection to the "massively popular" bit? Just maybe? :p Other than Great Russians, none of the other ethnic groups had a reason to like Iosif Vissarionovich. There may be sources for people liking Stalin, as are there many sources for people being terrified of him. Besides, if he was so great, why did his own daughter leave the country and fire off press releases and books saying how awful he was?
Yes, Khruschev did, of course I know that. but thats dosent change the fact that he was enormously popular during his lifetime. Dosent change it one little bit.
With whom, the people of the Soviet Union? The same people who were being held at gunpoint by...lessee here...Stalin? He'd be my favorite guy in the world too if not liking him meant going off to a certain archipelago.
 
Haha, this is amazing. Surely the bombers could just drop payloads on all possible escape directions around the ship, though? I suppose that would be a tremendous cost in wasted ammunition and a big tactical headache -- not very likely to happen.

You're rather overestimating the turning circle and ability to keep close order of the bombers that such a strategy would require, also the numbers to do it successfully (sure if you focus you can take out a ship...but there are rather a lot of them and I'd hate to see what even one destroyer could do to the barges), and do it under the anti-aircraft fire the ships are pumping out...
 
A smartarse is better than a dumbarse.

I don't see Churchhill breaking out of a prison cell. He was too old and overweight to do much of that.

The only way we will know if Sealion may or may not have been a German success, is to plug the nations military might into a war game system and play the battles out. We'll have to do this many times and with different game systems.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have some very important historical games...I mean research to play.
I repeat, Churchill had escaped from prison before, at least once that I know of. And I don't see him giving in to torture, so he might not have anything to fear from capture.

There have been legitimate wargames attempted by the British and West German governments which showed that Sealion would be a massive failure, even assuming the British didn't resort to their poison gas and other technically illegal measures. But by all means, have fun playing those gam... I mean, conducting your research. I may have to conduct some myself.
 
Um, what exactly did you fix? You really ought to look up naval production figures during world war 2.......... Because there's a reason at the end of the war America had a far more powerful fleet than the British Commonwealth...........


He said Allied Fleet. Notice we are talking about Seelowe where Britain and her (now) Commonwealth Nations stood against Germany. Its not much of an allied Fleet.

Which then leads to the point of why the hell have you said America had a more powerful fleet at the end of the war? Who cares. America wasn't in the war.

Stop trying to be a smart arse and learn to read.
 
Cheezy:

To extend your point with regards to any proposed landings the Luftwaffe would be sorely stretched whatever role was assigned to it. Potentially the plan would expect it to:

a) Destroy or at the least drive off the Royal Navy
b) Protect the flotillas of barges and other ships involved in the landings
c) Conduct airborne landings, probably followed by attempts to air lift infantry into airfields
d) Provide close support for the army
e) Possibly provide air-dropped supplies to cut off units

Given that that the British would be throwing everything but the kitchen sink into the battle its unlikely in the extreme that the Luftwaffe could fulfil all of the above tasks. If emphasis was placed on attacking the Royal Navy then the RAF would have an easier time. If emphasis was placed on protecting the flotillas then the chances are the Royal Navy would have intervened in stregnth. Given the flimsy nature of the German flotilla as you correctly point out it would hardly have been difficult for either branch to cause chaos and heavy loss of life before the Germans even got ashore.
 
All been said already really, only to add -

The poison gas and oil fires are symptomatic of the psychology. The "civilised" western theatre would have ended at the white cliffs. Wars were something fought under rules overseas. Fighting on the mainland would have caused a massive cultural shock and it would have got nasty fast.
 
The troops in the West wouldnt've made enough of a difference had they been sent East, and lend-lease aid, which came mostly from the United States anyway, really only accounted for 15% of Soviet production at the highest point. That, and they only real thing the Soviets used of ours, other than food, of course, was the Studabaker trucks.

You forgot about raw materials and the Jeep.
 
Hmmm...could the "massively feared" bit have a direct connection to the "massively popular" bit? Just maybe? :p Other than Great Russians, none of the other ethnic groups had a reason to like Iosif Vissarionovich. There may be sources for people liking Stalin, as are there many sources for people being terrified of him. Besides, if he was so great, why did his own daughter leave the country and fire off press releases and books saying how awful he was?

Because his enemy, Khruschev had come to power. Thats was why, wasnt it? and in any case his popularity with his daughter does not equate to his public popularity. And no it cannot all be explained by fear. Like it or not man, some leaders you may consider awful have been really popular. hitler was scum of the Earth but in 1941 in Germany he was popular beyond belief. In any case, why are you onlt going on ethnic groups? Ethnicity is irrelevant. Bear in mind the accounts of genuine outpourings of grief on his death came from Western sources, who had no reason to inflate his popularity. I'm not saying he was so great, thats a strawman. I'm saying he was incredibly popular, which he was. and if you cannot see one major reason for his popularity, then you are blind.

With whom, the people of the Soviet Union? The same people who were being held at gunpoint by...lessee here...Stalin? He'd be my favorite guy in the world too if not liking him meant going off to a certain archipelago.

so let me get this straight, you think he entire popularity was built soley on fear? things dont work that way. any leader, no matter how brutal, needs popularity or he will fall. dont be fooled. Saddam was hated, but sections of the population loved him, if no one had supported him he would have been hung long before the Americans got him. No leader can stay in power purely by terror; certaintly not for 30 years as Stalin did. you are confusing your opinion of him with his popularity among the Soviet population. why did Khruschev make his speech in secret and only criticise Stalin in tiny amounts in public? Because he had no choice.
 
I'm saying he was incredibly popular, which he was. and if you cannot see one major reason for his popularity, then you are blind.

it doesn't take a particularly charismatic leader to be popular in times of war.

Undisputed leader+
German invasion of USSR+
NKVD+
Soviet victories+
Uneducated peasants (the ones not starved to death by Stalin)
=Stalin the hero.

A formula, if applied would work anywhere in the world.
 
it doesn't take a particularly charismatic leader to be popular in times of war.

Undisputed leader+
German invasion of USSR+
NKVD+
Soviet victories+
Uneducated peasants (the ones not starved to death by Stalin)
=Stalin the hero.

A formula, if applied would work anywhere in the world.

that's right, but what's the point?
 
All well and good except he wasnt just popular during the war. the war constituted 4 years of his 31 year rule
 
Because his enemy, Khruschev had come to power. Thats was why, wasnt it? and in any case his popularity with his daughter does not equate to his public popularity. And no it cannot all be explained by fear. Like it or not man, some leaders you may consider awful have been really popular. hitler was scum of the Earth but in 1941 in Germany he was popular beyond belief. In any case, why are you onlt going on ethnic groups? Ethnicity is irrelevant. Bear in mind the accounts of genuine outpourings of grief on his death came from Western sources, who had no reason to inflate his popularity. I'm not saying he was so great, thats a strawman. I'm saying he was incredibly popular, which he was. and if you cannot see one major reason for his popularity, then you are blind.
My original point was that the Communist regime, if not for Hitler's attempts at making the war a national one, was the most unpopular regime in history. On the front lines, even with the danger of being slaughtered by the Nazis (who, as you noted, considered the Russians subhuman) and the NKVD's "national line of defense", Vlasov led an entire Shock Army over to the Nazis. That'd be like the SS Panzer divisions surrendering en masse to the Allies during Market-Garden. It's practically unthinkable. The Tsarist regime never lost numbers like that even in the depths of the First World War - in the beginning, the Russian hordes threw themselves against German firepower and got smashed over and over and over again until they went home. They never joined the fight against their own country, not even when encircled at Tannenberg; they simply stopped fighting for either side. On the other hand, a force comprised of not only Cossacks but Russians as well, among whom were not only former White soldiers but also hitherto-loyal Communists (like Vlasov himself) actively lobbied the German command to be allowed to fight against their oppressors. No other Russian regime in history has inspired such hatred. That's what I meant by being the "most unpopular regime".

Woohoo for getting the thread sidetracked. :p I'll stop now.
 
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