The most likely way I see this happening is Britain not joining, that'd prevent Italy, US and Japan among other joining. If this occured its likely Germany would have won. Of course given British policy at the time, trying to keep the balance of powers so no 1 nation could threaten Britain, its difficult to see how this would have occured. Perhaps Belgium allows German troops through and Britain decides given its 2 great powers on 2 great powers that they could sit this 1 out. In such a circumstance I'd say German victory would come in 1916 or 1917.
If Germany did win I don't think France would be utterly destroyed, I'd expect some territorial concessions including colonies, repayments and a very damaged economy. Further tension with Britain is likely following this given Germany's enhanced colonial empire. Given the treaty with Russia I can see Germany taken many French colonies rather than French soil itself.
As for Eastern Europe, the Czar abdicated in March 1917, Lenin actually came back to Russia with German help. A German victory means Russia goes Soviet. The coup comes in November 1917 puting Lenin in power. Ukraine breaks away in January 1918, Estonia in February, Russia begins to break ties with the allies. On March 3rd the peace treaty is signed much of the Russian empire is carved up. Under the terms of the treaty Russia surrendered Poland, Lithuania, Courland, Riga and part of Belorussia to Germany while the Ukraine became a German protectorate, while parts of the caucusus is ceded to Turkey. In May Georgia and Armenia declared independence. Alternate history would of yielded much the same results.
Its unlikely that Japan, Britain, the US etc would've sent troops into Russia in 1918 though.
The Austro Hungarian empire likely would've taken Serbia. I'd guess in the long term this would only add to the divisiveness of the empire, its likely it would've broken up eventually.
The Ottoman Empire would remain though its would still be the sick man of Europe. Its questionable how long it could've held its territories, I wouldn't be surprised to see Austria-Hungary or Britain later attempting to take them on, I also wouldn't be surprised to see it disolve in a civil war. Given Britain and France wouldn't have ruled it post WW1 like in real life the borders in the middle east today would be rather different. Israel would never exist. Islamic fundamentalism may not have become as much of a force, without as much Western intervention and no Israel to hate.
I think in the long term a war between Soviet Russia and Germany would be on the cards, the Soviets would be rather pissed off at having their nation ripped apart and post civil war would've sort to rectify it while Germany would be rather iedologically opposed to the Communist nation on its door step. I think Germany would end up defeating Soviet Russia, communism would fail to then be such a big influence in the 20th century, many communist regimes would never have come into existance and certainly no Iron Curtain. It is likely though that some communist uprisings would have occured and suceeded.
Meanwhile a stronger Germany with some new colonial acquisitions would lead to potentially a hostile relationship with Britain. In such a timeline the US is unlikely to be quite so powerful. The world would have 3 super powers, the US a potential super power if it mobilises, Britain and Germany. In such a timeline its probable Japan would follow the same course of action as in real life. This would potentially lead Japan to war with one or all of Britain, Germany (having taken over French colonies, possibly Indo China) and the US.
Further wars and possibly a world war would be likely though probably not on the scale of WW2 and certainly no Jewish genocide. I think imperialism would've lasted substantially longer potentially even to this day.
I can see a nasty civil war embroiling eastern Europe in perhaps the 1930s or 1940s finally bringing about Austria-Hungary collapse. The likely result of this is millions dead. Germany seizing Austria and maybe Czech territory. Perhaps a communist regime or 2 arising.
Fascism would probably still have risen though not in Germany; Portual Spain and Italy would probably establish themselves as Fascists. These fascist regimes would only find themselves at war if siding with Britain or Germany in a much larger war, by themslves they would've lacked the power to take on the major powers. Thus its likely Fascism would survive in these nations for a few decades.
