10 New City States?

Giskler said:

Antananarivo is mercantile and the color looks like a lighter shade of Almaty to me, its hex code is around #f4cda4. Probably replacement for Marrakesh.

Mogadishu has been puppeted by Indonesia so can't tell type, but the color looks to be light blue. It's around #80b7f. From Mogadishu's history it sounds like it could be mercantile, but who knows, they have assigned city states randomly before.

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Antananarivo sounds like Marrakesh's replacement then. Not too sure about Mogadishu, but we're expecting some religious ones at some point.

Menzies said:

Antananarivo sounds like Marrakesh's replacement then. Not too sure about Mogadishu, but we're expecting some religious ones at some point.

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There's a compelling argument for it being mercantile. It was an important trading port for centuries and famed for high quality fabric.

There's not much in its history to suggest it being classed as religious, but they classed Mbanza-Kongo as militaristic so who knows.

I wonder if all the city-states are confirmed.

I still hope to see: Dubai, Tula, Lagos, Bogota, Santiago, Karachi, Wellington and Caral

Giskler said:

There's a compelling argument for it being mercantile. It was an important trading port for centuries and famed for high quality fabric.

There's not much in its history to suggest it being classed as religious, but they classed Mbanza-Kongo as militaristic so who knows.

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Mbanza-Kongo being Militaristic stands out as a truly bizarre one to me, and to be honest you never know what they'll do.

At this point no more mercantile are expected and there is already confirmed purple and light purple mercantile city states, so if it is purple it won't be Mercantile (Light Purple is very light and there is already one for mercantile, purple is what most call light purple and middle purple is quite dark).

It also won't be Maritime as it's very much inland. Can't be Cultured either as it also has purple and light purple. That basically just leaves Militaristic (which we already have the full complement expected as well) and Religious (which we are expected at least one more for). The question then becomes what of the extra Cultured one? Maybe there are a few more coming, we still can't be sure, but I probably need to have another look at the numbers and see what's still possible.

Aaccording to the "screenshots" Antamrivo is another Mercentile (peach) and Vanoucver is a purple (kathamndu purple I believe) Maritime city state.

TheKingOfBigOz said:

Aaccording to the "screenshots" Antamrivo is another Mercentile (peach) and Vanoucver is a purple (kathamndu purple I believe) Maritime city state.

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They seem to be replacements for Marrakesh and Lisbon as we were expecting. I think I'll make an update post in this thread in a bit when I've compiled what we know again.

Now as things stand:

Maritime:
Cape Town - Light Orange
Quebec City - Blue
Ragusa - Middle Cyan
Sydney - Middle Blue
Manila - Light Green
Ormus - Grey: Replacement for Jakarta
Panama City - Light Yellow: Replacement for Rio de Janeiro
Riga - Cyan: Replacement for Venice
Vancover - Purple: Replacement for Lisbon
Ur - Light Purple: New Addition
Byblos - Middle Purple: New Addition

We still expect to see:
Mombasa - Green

Cultured:
Monaco - Purple
Yerevan - Peach
Prague - Blue
Milan - Light Orange
Kuala Lumpur - Yellow
Brussels - Light Blue
Bratislava - White: Replacement for Warsaw
Kabul - Green: New Addition
Kyzyl - Middle Cyan: New Addition
Kiev - Middle Blue: New Addition
Buenos Aires - Light Purple: Addition

Whilst we still expect to see:
Florence - Cyan
Bucharest - Light Green

Mercantile:
Cahokia - White
Genoa - Middle Cyan
Hong Kong - Blue
Tyre - Green
Zanzibar - Light Blue
Antwerp - Purple
Colombo - Light Purple
Singapore - Light Yellow
Zurich - Grey
Samarkand - Middle Blue: New Addition
Malacca - Cyan: New Addition
Antananarivo - Peach, Replacement for Marrakesh

None still expected.

Militaristic:
Belgrade - Green
Sidon - Middle Purple
Hanoi - Light Purple
Valletta - Yellow
Sofia - Light Green: New Addition
Mbanza-Kongo - Cyan: New Addition

Whilst we still expect:
Budapest - Grey
Almaty - Light Orange

Religious:
Geneva - Middle Blue
La Venta - Cyan
Lhasa - Light Green
Jerusalem - White
Wittenberg - Light Purple
Vatican City - Light Yellow
Kathmandu - Middle Purple: Type changed from Cultured

With no others expected.

We also know that Mogadishu is in the game.

This means that we still expect:

Mombasa - Green, Maritime
Florence - Cyan, Cultured
Bucharest - Light Green, Cultured (Confirmed to be in BNW, unseen)
Budapest - Grey, Militaristic
Almaty - Light Orange, Militaristic
Mogadishu - Unknown, name seen in the game

So, what does this all mean then? Well, at current count we have, assume that the Gods & Kings city states that are still unseen return as they were:

Maritime: 12
Cultured: 13
Mercantile: 12
Militaristic: 8
Religious: 7

With one city state of unknown colour-type combination seen. Based on this, unless a city state has been removed for some unknown reason, there is no way that there could be a 12-12-12-8-8 split of the city states. As such we don't know exactly what the make up of them would be. My guess would be that there is still a religious city state coming and at least one more cultured city state to make it 12-14-12-8-8 (in the order of the previous list). Why they would make it this particularly combination, I'm not entirely sure, but they have always had round numbers before, and I doubt they'd just have 13 cultured city states for a laugh. There is also a chance that there are a significant number of new city states still to come, we'll see though.

Thanks again for the CS analysis Menzies, you're the beast on this. If we get a third expansion I'll know who to turn to.

Menzies said:

My guess would be that there is still a religious city state coming and at least one more cultured city state to make it 12-14-12-8-8 (in the order of the previous list). Why they would make it this particularly combination, I'm not entirely sure, but they have always had round numbers before, and I doubt they'd just have 13 cultured city states for a laugh.

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I see no reason to believe that we will have different numbers of Maritime, Cultured and Mercantile. Like you say, Mogadishu has been seen and would be likely to be either Maritime or Mercantile, so I guess we'll have more coming that we haven't seen yet for a total of 14-14-14-8-8, although 13-13-13-8-8 would also be a possibility (13/8 is closer to the old ratio of 10/6 than 14/8).

kaspergm said:

I see no reason to believe that we will have different numbers of Maritime, Cultured and Mercantile. Like you say, Mogadishu has been seen and would be likely to be either Maritime or Mercantile, so I guess we'll have more coming that we haven't seen yet for a total of 14-14-14-8-8, although 13-13-13-8-8 would also be a possibility (13/8 is closer to the old ratio of 10/6 than 14/8).

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5 yet to be seen city states seems like a lot at this point, but always possible. If it's 13-13-13-8-8 it's only two though. Maybe they might have gone for an odd number?

As for the ratio. It was ~14.3% Militaristic and Religious in Gods & Kings, whilst for 13 of Mercantile, Maritime and Cultured it would be ~14.5% and 13.8% for 14.

Another way of looking at it would be Major types to Minor types ratio. That is, the fraction that is Militaristic and Religious (Minor Types). Here is a quick table:

Vanilla: 28.6%
Gods & Kings: 28.6%
12 Majors: 30.8% <- Already ruled out
13 Majors: 29.1%
14 Majors: 27.6%

So yes, having it 13-13-13-8-8 would be the closest to the Gods & Kings and Vanilla ratio in that case. In fact, this pretty much answers the old question about why they changed the ratio between Vanilla and Gods & Kings though. About as close as they could get in fact. Other ratios that could get close are:

10 Majors, 6 Minors: 28.6% < - Staying the same
15 Majors, 9 Minors: 28.6%
13 Majors, 8 Minors: 29.1%
11 Majors, 7 Minors: 28.0%

15-15-15-9-9 would have worked perfectly if in the aim was to keep the ratio the same, but 13-13-13-8-8 gets pretty close. Not sure they would have wanted to add 21 new city states though. Could still be the case though, that would be 9 unknown new city states remaining if it were the case, but statistically I don't see that happening as we really should have seen more new city states if that were the case. Of the 42 returning city states (replacements included), we've only not seen 5 of them, which would be 11.9%. We'd expect to see a similar number for the new city states as well, and as there are so far 11 of them (Mogadishu included) then we'd expect one or so more.

Another thought occurs though. Whilst 13-13-13-8-8 doesn't exactly conserve the ratio, 14-13-13-8-8 does, so that is another possibility. Anyhow, if this is the case, we'd expect:

15-15-15-9-9: 9 new city states <- Match for the old ratio
14-13-13-8-8: 3 new city states <- Match for the old ratio
13-13-13-8-8: 2 new city states
13-12-12-8-8: No new city states

With what is discussed above in mind, I'd have a guess between 14-13-13-8-8 and 13-13-13-8-8, I'd actually think that 14-13-13-8-8 could be quite likely in fact.

I would still say 13-13-13-8-8 then. I don't see them making a different number of either Cultural, Maritime or Commercial just to retain that final digit on the percentage, it would seem much more likely to accept a slight shift. But certainly, 2 or 3 new CS is by no means impossible, just in the last bunch of screenshots we got information on two new ones, if I'm not mistaken.

kaspergm said:

I would still say 13-13-13-8-8 then. I don't see them making a different number of either Cultural, Maritime or Commercial just to retain that final digit on the percentage, it would seem much more likely to accept a slight shift. But certainly, 2 or 3 new CS is by no means impossible, just in the last bunch of screenshots we got information on two new ones, if I'm not mistaken.

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We saw one new one and got information on one we already knew about. 1 or 2 would be about what is expected from here based on the number of total city states we've seen.

Well, there's no big difference between 1 or 2 additonal ones or 3, is there? And if I'm right we only need 3 to reach 13-13-13-8-8, do we? So, both seem about equally probable. And 4 to reach 14-13-13-8-8.

You can't predict things that are so close to each other, that's too much, simply. :wink:

I'm still grasping on my hope that there ratio are requal for once. xD

mitsho said:

Well, there's no big difference between 1 or 2 additonal ones or 3, is there? And if I'm right we only need 3 to reach 13-13-13-8-8, do we? So, both seem about equally probable. And 4 to reach 14-13-13-8-8.

You can't predict things that are so close to each other, that's too much, simply. :wink:

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Two to 13-13-13-8-8 and 3 to 13-14-13-8-8. We currently have 12-13-12-8-7, and know of one more, so we only need to see two to make it 13-13-13-8-8.

TheKingOfBigOz said:

I'm still grasping on my hope that there ratio are requal for once. xD

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Why, they clearly have the ratio for a reason.

Menzies said:

Two to 13-13-13-8-8 and 3 to 13-14-13-8-8. We currently have 12-13-12-8-7, and know of one more, so we only need to see two to make it 13-13-13-8-8.



Why, they clearly have the ratio for a reason.

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Because I'm borderline O.C.D (if not actually O.C.D) and I have to establish my cities within 3 tiles of my other cities, so yes, I want The Five types to have equal number of cities

It's just one of those litlte things, I'm half sarcastic anyway

Has anyone posted the screenshots of the newly revealed city states in a format a mac user can see?

j51 said:

Has anyone posted the screenshots of the newly revealed city states in a format a mac user can see?

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I am so sorry.

I hope its more 15-9

More variety is good, and there are at least 21 'out of game' civs for Mil civs to choose UU from (They should give them all 2 UU in different eras)

Menzies said:

I am so sorry.

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Is that sarcasm?

Either way, it's not a big deal - just curious.