Firstly, the idea is that it must be a recognizable earth- distinct and divergent from what we inhabit, but it must be plausible and preferably appear even likely. So maybe not near-future, but certainly, importantly, recognizable.
Well, if we're talking about likelihood, I'd say that Humans, which generally will pick a leader in any group larger than about 7, and which generally build ever more ornate power structures beyond any group larger than about 150, will continue to likely organize themselves into states, which have existed for about 5,500 years. I see no reason to believe they won't continue existing somewhere for another 5,500 years.
Stephenson's Phyles are really at their core a twist on the idea of states. They still have differentiated leadership structures, ideologies, strategic goals and agendas, and indeed territory, it's just that those things are decentralized rather than centralized around the idea of national territory. Citizenship is ideological (and racial) rather than territorial. Phyles are in many ways just states translated through the current idea of "the Cloud," although that phrase didn't exist when he wrote the book. They aren't remotely as radical as say, sovereign citizen movements or other ideas of individuals being sovereign, and in fact are directly antithetical to them.
The most realistic way to get from a territorial state to an aterritorial state-like entity is more or less a straight line, perhaps jagged, rather than a discontinuity.
Secondly, I want to develop a world that is post-cyberpunk.
Well, as I said,
this world is Postcyberpunk. As it exists, this scenario goes Postcyberpunk→Decay into Cyberpunk→Revolution→Postcyberpunk. It's a circle. You are already at the destination you intend to reach. You could make it an alternate history starting in the 1980s where the 1980s vision of the future came to pass instead of our own, and eventually that was overthrown. But we in the year 2014 have already bypassed it. It's somewhat like saying you want a post-
Jetsons future, or a post-
2001: A Space Odyssey future. We are already in that future. We are already in the Postcyberpunk future.
Cyberpunk is often characterized by rebel characters fighting an oppressive tyranny, as you say, an overused trope such as the megacorps fits with that.
I think it's important to unpack this because I don't think it's being used correctly. The "Cyber-" bit of Cyberpunk refers to the setting; the "-punk" refers to the focus on the outsiders, Others, etc. whom exist in opposition to the established order. When we say Postcyberpunk, we're really saying "Cyber post-punk," or a return to focus on characters
within the established order, just in a futuristic ("cyber") setting. You don't need one to get to the other, they're different perspectives of similar (sometimes identical) material. (What someone in the American Midwest considers a perfectly fine bucolic existence, someone highly educated from the Atlantic Rim might consider some sort of Farmpunk hell to rebel against.)
Cyberpunk was a reaction to the New Wave which was itself a reaction to the Golden Age. Postcyberpunk was one of many reactions to Cyberpunk. Another example might be how superheroes went from being brightly colored power fantasies from the 30s-to-70s to dark, ultra-violent, Xtreme gritty antihero chronicles in the 80s and 90s only to return somewhat to form but different as a result of that era. You don't need to go back through the entire history of the movement to arrive at its current terminus, because we've already done that in real life, as I outlined above.
Thirdly, I want to explore the concept that capitalism is inherently anti-democratic, preferably exploring large-scale and functional societies based on communalism, democratic economics and other ‘alternatives’ to free-market capitalism. This is just a personal preference.
That's fine, but realistically if you want to do that you still need capitalism around as a thing to explore. Killing it off thirty years prior puts it on the ash heap of history full of junk nobody cares about. Generally speaking, nobody today is going around talking about Goldwater-Nichols Act and US service joint operations because it's a done deal and ancient history by now. Likewise, if the major conflict you want to investigate in a work has
already happened, unless your work is a (future-)historical account or something, it's a non-issue by then. To give an example, you wouldn't write a novel (or make a game, or direct a movie, or...) about WWII where the setting is the Vietnam War.
Fourthly, I want to explore early colonization of space, in particular the use of the moon to help power H3-based fusion reactors.
I would suggest picking up
High Frontier,
Transhuman Space (as hilarious as its timeline can be) or Ben Bova's
Grand Tour (also sometimes funny) if that's your real goal. Bova makes note in both
Moonrise and
Moonwar that extracting He-3 from regolith is likely to be more difficult than anticipated. There are
some thoughts on the difficulty that differ, but the bigger problem is the size of the
supply; you'd have to strip-mine the whole surface of the Moon to power Earth for much more than 20 years.
I disagree that they make a boring setting. Perhaps in a truly post-scarcity world they would have no reason to interact but prior to that, they still need to compete. Consider a race for the H3 of the moon (since I mentioned that earlier).
How often do corporations engage in shooting wars with one another? Decentralization on the one hand makes phyles somewhat less vulnerable than states against things like decapitating strikes, but on the other it makes them more vulnerable since their presence is much more diffuse and hard to guard. Imagine having to guard, say, Washington D.C., vs. all the McDonald's franchises in the world at the same time. What makes decentralization like that appealing is an environment of less risk. Now, if you have alternatives to direct armed conflict as points of interest, then sure, it's still viable as competition is still going on. If armed conflict is a focus though, the scenario itself is stacked against it.
My thoughts were based something on social apathy driving failure of democracy in the face of capitalist wealth and its influence, leading to revolution.
Well, if the people are so apathetic about things, why do they one day suddenly revolt? Happiness
is as synthetic as it is real. People adapt. Conversion of dissatisfaction into discontent requires a catalyst and potential reward that would offset whatever risks one runs of upsetting the status quo. Indeed, the primary way the system legitimizes itself and maintains the status quo is by helping manufacture synthetic happiness; that's the fundamental basis of consumer capitalism.
There's no real reason given for the people to become less vocal and active (if anything, the internet and social media have made it easier for them to be
more of both), and also no reason given for them to suddenly stop. If the process was to start, there's little reason to believe it would stop in a sudden fashion; it'd be the creation of a behavior sink. (The applicability of studies into
behavioral sinks to Humans is questionable but the first time I
read "Other males, a group Calhoun termed “the beautiful ones,” never sought sex and never fought—they just ate, slept, and groomed, wrapped in narcissistic introspection" I immediately thought of
Hikikomori.)
Like I said, the simplest thing is to forego any crisis entirely and just assume a slow, gradual, disorganized rising political consciousness.
I am inclined to agree with everything you wrote. Do you have suggestions regarding what to use instead, especially as a veil between ‘cyberpunk’ (or immediate future) and ‘post cyberpunk’ or future I have outlined in the goals I set out above? Megacorps are easy- I agree- and not particularly original- I agree. But new ideas are HARD. So… what is not only plausible but serves the same function.
I think I've already made that clear piecemeal, but: a failure of neoliberal institutionalism (e.g., EU implosion, more countries walking away like
Iceland did, growing regionalized economic systems, etc.) coupled with emerging technologies and social shifts leads to a diminished focus on nation-states in the public consciousness, eventually producing something like supra-national associations with nation-states either becoming somewhat irrelevant or dissolving.