2020 US Election (Part Two)

[Velegon]

Fwiw, Chuck Grassley, next in line after Pelosi, isn't up in 2020. I don't think succession rules will come into play though because the 20th Amendment appears to overrule it. So if all running Congress members are out, Dems likely control Congress for the vote or if not, they'd need, what, 3 Reps in the Senate to hate Trump enough to vote for Biden? Or would they need to get to 60?

If the election is still in dispute as of Jan 6 after the votes for the Electoral College - the 20th amendment has the House vote for the President by STATE (current House is 26 states majority republicans, 23 states majority democrat and 1 other according to the article linked below but that is before the current election) - first of the top 3 presidential candidates to get to a majority vote of 26 wins. The Senate would elect the vice president by majority vote.

https://law.stackexchange.com/questions/53763/if-the-u-s-congress-chooses-the-president-vp#:~:text=The newly elected Congress does all of the,in Joint Session to count the electoral votes.

There was a CNN article a few months back which openly wondered whether Trump advisors and the Republicans were aiming to cause the election to be in dispute long enough to force this House vote by state.

 

[EnglishEdward]

The way I see it Boris set the precedent for cancelling electons due to Covid in the English speaking world.

In my opinion, he should merely have postponed them for a few weeks to better enable postal voting.

His problem now is that if he holds elections after a long delay, they become a quasi referendum on his handling of the Covid pandemic.

 

[Ferocitus]

The way I see it Boris set the precedent for cancelling electons due to Covid in the English speaking world.

In my opinion, he should merely have postponed them for a few weeks to better enable postal voting.

His problem now is that if he holds elections after a long delay, they become a quasi referendum on his handling of the Covid pandemic.

Dominic Cummings, the human uranium enrichment centrifuge, could easily spin that into a winner for Boris.

 

[RobAnybody]

If the election is still in dispute as of Jan 6 after the votes for the Electoral College...

Right, but that last part is key - *after the votes for the Electoral College*. I'm assuming that doesn't happen* in which case the 20th Amendment dictates how things proceed, not succession rules - Congress decides who is basically "President" until an actual election can be held.

*granted, there's nothing stopping states from assigning Electoral delegates however they see fit even absent an election using whatever random criteria they come up with. But enough states have split legislatures that neither candidate could secure enough Electoral votes

 

[rah]

So will Trump abolishing the AFFH rule help him in the suburbs for being outright racist or hurt him since the suburbs are starting to lean more left and supporting equality.

I would bet it will not help him.

 

[GenMarshall]

So will Trump abolishing the AFFH rule help him in the suburbs for being outright racist or hurt him since the suburbs are starting to lean more left and supporting equality.

I would bet it will not help him.

I hate to rehash and twist an old meme but.
It’s gonna hurt Trump politically .

 

[RobAnybody]

So will Trump abolishing the AFFH rule help him in the suburbs for being outright racist or hurt him since the suburbs are starting to lean more left and supporting equality.

My guess, & just a guess based on how trends have been going, is that it will hurt him. The suburbs have been abandoning him because they no longer trust him (&/or are ashamed of voting for him, but more importantly the former for this point). So they'll actually look into his tweet because they have no idea *what the AFFH is* (i.e. initial reaction: wtf?), & discover it was not to prevent "poor people" from being discriminated against, but to prevent black people from being discriminated against. Maybe my optimism is showing, but I think the initial reaction of "WTF is that?" is near universal & the people who don't default to "Trump Did It=Good" will at least ask what that was & when they find out be (further) repulsed.

EDIT: I'm not saying it will sway a whole lot of people, just that those still waffling will be put off by it

 

[El_Machinae]

But when the constitution is clear that Trump can no longer be President after Jan 20... that excuse would be gone at Jan 20.
Or not ?

This team's whole channel is quite good, and I really recommend it. Here's their analysis of the election concern. I recommend using 1.25 speed on Youtube for these kinds of things.
Basically, learn while you're folding laundry

Edit: I also found the one on Flynn super-fascinating and I was sooooo ahead of the ball on that one after getting their briefing.

 

[Socrates99]

This team's whole channel is quite good, and I really recommend it. Here's their analysis of the election concern. I recommend using 1.25 speed on Youtube for these kinds of things.
Basically, learn while you're folding laundry

Edit: I also found the one on Flynn super-fascinating and I was sooooo ahead of the ball on that one after getting their briefing.

That's a good channel, I've watched...er listened to his videos while commuting.

 

[Lexicus]

My guess, & just a guess based on how trends have been going, is that it will hurt him. The suburbs have been abandoning him because they no longer trust him (&/or are ashamed of voting for him, but more importantly the former for this point). So they'll actually look into his tweet because they have no idea *what the AFFH is* (i.e. initial reaction: wtf?), & discover it was not to prevent "poor people" from being discriminated against, but to prevent black people from being discriminated against. Maybe my optimism is showing, but I think the initial reaction of "WTF is that?" is near universal & the people who don't default to "Trump Did It=Good" will at least ask what that was & when they find out be (further) repulsed.

These are the same suburban voters who supposedly believe Bernie Sanders' modest agenda is SOVIET COMMUNISM HARDCORE!!!!!1111111eleven????

This will count against him with anyone who has a shred of human decency, but those people have already abandoned him. The point of this isn't to win anyone in the suburbs over, it's to inflame the whole culture war, cause people to accuse the administration and the Republicans of being racist, then the racist white people get super-triggered about it and the culture war ratchets to a higher intensity notch yet again.

 

[Sommerswerd]

This team's whole channel is quite good, and I really recommend it. Here's their analysis of the election concern. I recommend using 1.25 speed on Youtube for these kinds of things.
Basically, learn while you're folding laundry

Edit: I also found the one on Flynn super-fascinating and I was sooooo ahead of the ball on that one after getting their briefing.

TL;DR - Its either going to be Pat Leahy (D)VT that takes over as POTUS from the Senate's President Pro Tempore position, or Nancy Pelosi (D)CA who takes over as POTUS from the Speaker of the House position.

How we get there is fully explained in the video. Very well done as usual by Legal Eagle.

 

[mitsho]

The way I see it Boris set the precedent for cancelling electons due to Covid in the English speaking world.

I am sorry, but you are overestimating the UKs influence wildly. You do add the caveat of the english speaking world, but why should this matter? Elections have been postponed and then held all over the World, i.e. France comes to mind. England just isn‘t that important, I‘m sorry to tell you.

—

The whole successio discussion is very interesting, but it just shows how crazy the US system actually is. And how so very 1777. It‘s time for reform and a little bit more democracy. In the short run, however, capturing public opinion counts. And the question, what to do with the Donald afterwards.

 

[EnglishEdward]

I am sorry, but you are overestimating the UKs influence wildly.

Well I know that, I am just being very rhetorical.

And trying to put the question of Covid 19 and elections in a wider international context.

The whole succession discussion is very interesting, but it just shows how crazy the US system actually is. And how so very 1777.

Quite, but I am not sure this is the thread to compare US and UK crazyness.

It‘s time for reform and a little bit more democracy. In the short run, however, capturing public opinion counts.

I suspect that state public opinion will move very much against the creeping federalism over there.
The decision to send the various federal police like forces, without the request or permission of state legislatures
and governors, may provoke a genuine states rights (unrelated to the historic slavery context) backlash.

And the question, what to do with the Donald afterwards.

Nothing, just ignore him. Let him play golf and fade/tweet away.

 

[IglooDame]

Nothing, just ignore him. Let him play golf and fade/tweet away.

I think Donald's tweeting to the 20% of the electorate that are Trump Superfans, for whom he could shoot someone on Sixth Ave and they'd cheer him, or will believe him when he tells them the Deep State fixed the 2020 election, is going to cause untold misery to the GOP in 2022 and 2024, a lot more than the BernieBro contingent currently is for Dems.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Thinking a bit more about the Legal Eagle video @El_Machinae posted... if a canceled election basically guarantees that legally the Democrats gain control of the Senate, Presidency and potentially the House as well, the Congressional Republicans have zero incentive to back any attempt by Trump to cancel the election, since an election gives them a good chance of keeping the Senate and at least the potential of retaining the Presidency. Trump would only attempt to cancel and/or postpone the election if it was going to allow him to stay in office. If Congressional Republicans aren't going to go along with letting him stay in office, he won't bother.

Trump's plan at this point seems to be to declare that the polls showing him behind are all unreliable, and that any election that includes mail-in ballots, which obviously, this election will... is fraudulent. So in other words, he is setting himself up to refuse to acknowledge the election result if he loses.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I think Donald's tweeting to the 20% 40% of the electorate that are Trump Superfans

FTFY

 

[IglooDame]

FTFY

I know, but I expect a lot of them to get gradually less enthusiastic and more disillusioned over the next six months.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I know, but I expect a lot of them to get gradually less enthusiastic and more disillusioned over the next six three months.

FTFY

 

[IglooDame]

FTFY

Nah. They're going to be waiting for all the fakenews polls to be proven wrong, or for Trump to ignore the rigged election results (Sad!) and just stay on as president. It will be Biden's inauguration that puts the stake in their hopes, which is why I'm calling it February.

 

[mitsho]

I can see Trump wanting to be everywhere, on every tv show and news outlet. Maybe he will promote something new, a business opportunity. I see three questions here then: How far will the other Republicans follow him? How much will his family want to reign him in (since they have to deal with it after his death)? And most importantly: How much energy will the new Department of Justice put into investigating the corruption? The answer to that third question of course has a really big impact on the other two, meaning how active Trump will be afterwards. And I'm quite pessimistic that there will be any semblance of peace and a good governance in process terms anytime soon. And I put that at 2-4 years at least, not months.