Zards Political Theories In Action

[Zardnaar]

And actual England. Since leaving the EU we are FPTP at all levels (except the lords).

Fptp seems better than electoral college.

Whoever wins usually gets popular vote as well?

 

[Samson]

Whoever wins usually gets popular vote as well?

Plurality but usually far from majority



I cannot find a graph of vote share to seat share, I may have to make one. It will be stark.

Spoiler What I was looking for but for the dems in the US :

Does this not say they usually get an advantage?

 

[Arwon]

ACT need to change their name, they're infringing on our territory

 

[Arwon]

Plurality but usually far from majority



I cannot find a graph of vote share to seat share, I may have to make one. It will be stark.

Spoiler What I was looking for but for the dems in the US :

Does this not say they usually get an advantage?

And of course a key reason US legislative vote shares even track seat shares as well as they do is the essentially total absence of other party votes.

In the UK and Canada the extra parties are a powerful chaos factor making the results wildly unproportional.

 

[Zardnaar]

ACT need to change their name, they're infringing on our territory

Heh tgat as well you had it first.

They were founded by ex Labour members from the 80s when Labourexploded into factions. ACT and Greens are last ones left from that process, NZ First was birthed out of National.

 

[Zardnaar]

Plurality but usually far from majority



I cannot find a graph of vote share to seat share, I may have to make one. It will be stark.

Spoiler What I was looking for but for the dems in the US :

Does this not say they usually get an advantage?

Something similar here its how we ended up with MMP.

 

[Valka D'Ur]

In the UK and Canada the extra parties are a powerful chaos factor making the results wildly unproportional.

What "extra" parties? Do you mean everything not Liberal and whatever the right wing is calling itself this time around, and the rest are "extra"? The NDP and Greens have been around for decades. They run candidates in every riding across the country. They are not "extra."

I consider the Bloc Quebecois to be "extra" because they only run in Quebec, their attitude is that they only care about Quebec, the ROC (Rest of Canada) is evil and wants to exterminate French (blissfully aware that this is the effect that some of their language laws are having on the anglophones living in Quebec and the businesses that have left that province due to language laws), and so on. It's bizarre that for a few weeks in 1993 (until they got the vote recounts done in some close ridings) the BQ was in second place - that a party that includes separatists formed Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

"Extra" are the fringe right-wing batch of parties with just one or two issues and they only run in a handful of ridings. I had SEVEN choices on my federal ballot last time, and only the Liberals and NDP were not blatantly right-wing.

 

[Zardnaar]

What "extra" parties? Do you mean everything not Liberal and whatever the right wing is calling itself this time around, and the rest are "extra"? The NDP and Greens have been around for decades. They run candidates in every riding across the country. They are not "extra."

I consider the Bloc Quebecois to be "extra" because they only run in Quebec, their attitude is that they only care about Quebec, the ROC (Rest of Canada) is evil and wants to exterminate French (blissfully aware that this is the effect that some of their language laws are having on the anglophones living in Quebec and the businesses that have left that province due to language laws), and so on. It's bizarre that for a few weeks in 1993 (until they got the vote recounts done in some close ridings) the BQ was in second place - that a party that includes separatists formed Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

"Extra" are the fringe right-wing batch of parties with just one or two issues and they only run in a handful of ridings. I had SEVEN choices on my federal ballot last time, and only the Liberals and NDP were not blatantly right-wing.

French joke time?

Idk enough about Canadian internal politics. Not as progressive as tge internet assumes perhaps (Canadians are nice, those clowns to the south).

US, Aussie, UK gave Murdoch media iirc idk about Canada.

 

[bene_legionary]

It seems every right-wing billboard not promoting a local constituent candidate is rather about crime, especially ACTs billboards. Doesn't help that almost every night One News runs some sort of segment on ram raids with the same video of that Hamilton mall getting robbed by about 20 kids driving cars inside the mall – so certainly Labour looks very weak on policing.

A couple weeks ago I saw a billboard with Winston's "Let's Take Back Our Country" (seeps trumpish, but there you go) with the O, R, and Y crossed out. Winnie is a political naked molerat and exists only to collect his salary, I don't know how he rebounded after last election's no-show from NZ First, or what anybody sees of him? Who does he even advocate for? What has he ever been responsible for that has actually improved peoples' lives? Not something I'd know since I've been in NZ only slightly more than a decade. In any case my family has personal history with Winnie so I can't say I'm not biased.

I popped over to Dunedin and back on Tuesday (was _only_ a 5 hour ride each way, but whatever – it was for business) and on my way in noticed a couple of youths defacing the ACT and National placards that you see coming in from the state highway. Was quite a nice day and sunny, didn't stay the night as planned though.

My b. dad who lives in Canada does not pay attention to the politics in Ontario but it seems like Ontario is sliding back – one example he gave was of premier Doug Ford deciding to forgo provincial celebrations of a holiday about respecting first nations. I took a look at their last election; sure enough FPTP skewed the results with more of the votes going to the left-wing parties but the "Progressive Conservatives" winning most of the constituencies, because the sparcely populated rural constituencies outnumber the densely populated urban constituencies. Not that I know much either, I got that from wikipedia.

 

[Zardnaar]

It seems every right-wing billboard not promoting a local constituent candidate is rather about crime, especially ACTs billboards. Doesn't help that almost every night One News runs some sort of segment on ram raids with the same video of that Hamilton mall getting robbed by about 20 kids driving cars inside the mall – so certainly Labour looks very weak on policing.

A couple weeks ago I saw a billboard with Winston's "Let's Take Back Our Country" (seeps trumpish, but there you go) with the O, R, and Y crossed out. Winnie is a political naked molerat and exists only to collect his salary, I don't know how he rebounded after last election's no-show from NZ First, or what anybody sees of him? Who does he even advocate for? What has he ever been responsible for that has actually improved peoples' lives? Not something I'd know since I've been in NZ only slightly more than a decade. In any case my family has personal history with Winnie so I can't say I'm not biased.

I popped over to Dunedin and back on Tuesday (was _only_ a 5 hour ride each way, but whatever – it was for business) and on my way in noticed a couple of youths defacing the ACT and National placards that you see coming in from the state highway. Was quite a nice day and sunny, didn't stay the night as planned though.

My b. dad who lives in Canada does not pay attention to the politics in Ontario but it seems like Ontario is sliding back – one example he gave was of premier Doug Ford deciding to forgo provincial celebrations of a holiday about respecting first nations. I took a look at their last election; sure enough FPTP skewed the results with a plurality of votes going to the left-wing parties but the "Progressive Conservatives" winning most of the constituencies, because the sparcely populated rural constituencies outnumber the densely populated urban constituencies. Not that I know much either, I got that from wikipedia.

Yeah Labour's getting destroyed on 3 Waters and soft on crime.

Was there lots of 3 waters signs out?

Winston's very good at pushing buttons he's the archetypal politician in a smokey room stereotype.

Winston has seen off 5 Labour prime ministers and 5 National ones.

Oldies love him and he tends to attract votes from left or right to undermine the others if the elections a wash (United Future in 2002 and Labour 2020 pulled that off as well).

He's more mouth and Winston First than any coherent political ideology. Handpicked by Muldoon back in 1979.

He campaigned on getting rid of National in 1996 then went into coalition with them. He's very good at pushing buttons and can carry a policy pledge over the line eg gold card vs Labour and their build 100 000 homes policy.

Helen Clark dealt with him via minister of foreign affairs. Apparently he did well go figure.

 

[Valka D'Ur]

French joke time?

Idk enough about Canadian internal politics. Not as progressive as tge internet assumes perhaps (Canadians are nice, those clowns to the south).

US, Aussie, UK gave Murdoch media iirc idk about Canada.

I'd start a thread about it if there were more than about 3 Canadians here who post even semi-regularly. Even over on TrekBBS where they're more active (there's a whole thread dedicated to Canada), it's like talking to myself, or the people who reply are from Ontario and know little to nothing about the western provinces.

The joke about the BQ becoming Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is that the separatist element of that party has no loyalty to Canada, just as the separatists out here in Alberta have no loyalty to Canada.

Canadians tend to be nice to non-Canadians. But when it comes to politics and how we behave to each other, it's very often not nice. Covid's back, another round of vaccines are going to be available in a couple of weeks, and the premier decided to cut back on funding for the pharmacists who provide the vaccines. Her support based is mostly anti-vaxxers, anti-maskers, and they don't see a problem with the decreasing supply of doctors and even emergency departments.

 

[Zardnaar]

I'd start a thread about it if there were more than about 3 Canadians here who post even semi-regularly. Even over on TrekBBS where they're more active (there's a whole thread dedicated to Canada), it's like talking to myself, or the people who reply are from Ontario and know little to nothing about the western provinces.

The joke about the BQ becoming Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is that the separatist element of that party has no loyalty to Canada, just as the separatists out here in Alberta have no loyalty to Canada.

Canadians tend to be nice to non-Canadians. But when it comes to politics and how we behave to each other, it's very often not nice. Covid's back, another round of vaccines are going to be available in a couple of weeks, and the premier decided to cut back on funding for the pharmacists who provide the vaccines. Her support based is mostly anti-vaxxers, anti-maskers, and they don't see a problem with the decreasing supply of doctors and even emergency departments.

Sounds worse than here. Looks like we might get that experience though going by the vetting process in ACT/National/Greens.

 

[bene_legionary]

I haven't heard much about 3 Waters recently really, probably because of the rebrand. My stepdad hated it a couple months back because 'Maori own too much already' (even though the crown promised control of resources to Maori in the Treaty, but w/e, he's had experiences with aboriginals in Queensland) and now doesn't even talk about it, last time I heard of it was when Luxon pointed out on the first TV debate and even then nobody made another mention of it. But that comes under broader co-governance which has really, really hammered Labour (and something else ACT likes pointing out). I don't think the Maori Health Authority has given Labour any points given ACT likes to call it apartheid. Good thing they prefer equality by making it worse for everyone.

I got a good laugh when Luxon said National invented co-governance back on the first debate, and talked about how a coalition with the Maori Party was like allying with the gangs. He likes to point that $300m payment to the gangs out, too – certainly bad look for Labour.

 

[Valka D'Ur]

My b. dad who lives in Canada does not pay attention to the politics in Ontario but it seems like Ontario is sliding back – one example he gave was of premier Doug Ford deciding to forgo provincial celebrations of a holiday about respecting first nations. I took a look at their last election; sure enough FPTP skewed the results with more of the votes going to the left-wing parties but the "Progressive Conservatives" winning most of the constituencies, because the sparcely populated rural constituencies outnumber the densely populated urban constituencies. Not that I know much either, I got that from wikipedia.

I hadn't heard that. There was some kerfuffle about Ford, but there always is, so I didn't read it.

A premier blowing off Truth and Reconciliation/Orange Shirt Day is a premier who is openly saying that indigenous/FN issues don't matter. That's not going to garner him/his party votes from the people for whom indigenous issues are part of their reasons for voting for some parties. Even the sociopath who's running Alberta made a pious speech about it, all the while supporting cabinet ministers who have come out with some rather openly bigoted actions.

 

[Arwon]

What "extra" parties? Do you mean everything not Liberal and whatever the right wing is calling itself this time around, and the rest are "extra"? The NDP and Greens have been around for decades. They run candidates in every riding across the country. They are not "extra."

I consider the Bloc Quebecois to be "extra" because they only run in Quebec, their attitude is that they only care about Quebec, the ROC (Rest of Canada) is evil and wants to exterminate French (blissfully aware that this is the effect that some of their language laws are having on the anglophones living in Quebec and the businesses that have left that province due to language laws), and so on. It's bizarre that for a few weeks in 1993 (until they got the vote recounts done in some close ridings) the BQ was in second place - that a party that includes separatists formed Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

"Extra" are the fringe right-wing batch of parties with just one or two issues and they only run in a handful of ridings. I had SEVEN choices on my federal ballot last time, and only the Liberals and NDP were not blatantly right-wing.

In the United States nearly every electorate sees about 99% votes for the two big parties. That minimises the distortions caused by FPTP, and leaves only the inherent representation and proportionality problems inherent to single member districts.

In Canada and the UK by contrast, most electorates have a lot more than 1 or 2 percent of votes going to candidates other than the top two, so the direct FPTP distortions are much greater.

Those countries can have the two leading candidates in many seats only get something like 35 and 30 percent, or worse, which leads to all sorts of wildly unrepresentative and ambiguous outcomes, like a party winning a seat when most voters would have definitely preferred a specific other winner (the classic example being a seat where NDP and Libs get most of the vote between them, but the Tories skate through with like a third of the vote).

Those sorts of perverse individual seat outcomes are basically not seen in almost purely two party US elections. Instead, there, most of the undemocratic results are due to vote suppression and gerrymandering, since the actual vote tallies are usually 99% Dem plus GOP.

This is all to say nothing of the way FPTP systems with more than 2 viable parties have crippling tactical voting dilemmas and produce wildly disproportionate and unrepresentative results in kinda random ways, something that again the truly 2 party US doesn't really experience.

 

[Valka D'Ur]

In the United States nearly every electorate sees about 99% votes for the two big parties. That minimises the distortions caused by FPTP, and leaves only the inherent representation and proportionality problems inherent to single member districts.

In Canada and the UK by contrast, most electorates have a lot more than 1 or 2 percent of votes going to candidates other than the top two, so the direct FPTP distortions are much greater.

Those countries can have the two leading candidates in many seats only get something like 35 and 30 percent, or worse, which leads to all sorts of wildly unrepresentative and ambiguous outcomes, like a party winning a seat when most voters would have definitely preferred a specific other winner (the classic example being a seat where NDP and Libs get most of the vote between them, but the Tories skate through with like a third of the vote).

Those sorts of perverse individual seat outcomes are basically not seen in almost purely two party US elections. Instead, there, most of the undemocratic results are due to vote suppression and gerrymandering, since the actual vote tallies are usually 99% Dem plus GOP.

This is all to say nothing of the way FPTP systems with more than 2 viable parties have crippling tactical voting dilemmas and produce wildly disproportionate and unrepresentative results in kinda random ways, something that again the truly 2 party US doesn't really experience.

Strategic voting is what's been happening now for a very long time. We (the non-CPC supporters) were desperate to get rid of Harper in 2015. He's just sneaked the UnFair Elections Act in, and who knows how much further he'd have gone if he'd "won" again?

I say "won" in quotation marks, because not once did he actually honestly win an election without some sort of shenanigans, whether it was manipulation at the riding level, or robocalls or robocards (the VICs containing a suspicious amount of incorrect information designed to send the voter on a wild goose chase or be disqualified for their VIC not matching the rest of what they used for ID), or even yahoos at the advance polling stations in non-Conservative ridings doing crap like pulling the fire alarm when voters were in the building.

ABC (Anybody But Conservative) is being talked about again in Alberta. It's got a better chance of working here, since the Liberal party is effectively dead in this province. The only viable parties are the NDP and the UCP, and whatever fringe parties there are (ie. the separatists) would siphon votes from the UCP, not the NDP.

 

[Hygro]

In the USA in traditionally conservative districts who had elected Democrats in 2008 re-elected the Democrats who voted for the ACA and voted our Democrats who played to their districts center who voted against it. These would be adjacent Congressional districts.

I think it was 2022 when Ocasio-Cortez was offering help to Democratic candidates in conservative areas. The ones who regarded her as a bad association and refused help basically all lost and the ones who took her help basically all won.

The fight between Democrats and Republicans in America isn't decided by compromise, it's done by being the best of itself the party member can be. Democrats win by being better Democrats. Ocasio-Cortez is not only good on issues, but relatedly, is smarter and knows how to win elections systematically. Going by "well the center is here and you're not it" is doubly stupid, both for mistaking where people want their leaders, and second, for thinking that position overrides intelligent campaigning and use of resources.

 

[schlaufuchs]

Well that and winning is irrelevant if all that win goes towards is further grinding your heel into the faces of those suffering and saying “we’re terribly sorry, but this is the best we can do at this time. we’ll lose if we appear to care too much about you.”

Too many moderate liberals fall victim to this wonky Harry Potter virtue ethics where they think of themselves as fundamentally “the good guys” and therefore their mere holding of office is a good per se, even if consequentially it doesn’t end up meaning much for us whichever side wins. And then they get aggrieved when we point this out.

 

[Crezth]

Sigh.

Stuff

i.stuff.co.nz

Apparently we're all violent as well according to obe of the co leaders.

Not necessarily violent, but on average perhaps the kinds of people to go “well I’d be okay under Hitler because I wouldn’t be murdered.”

 

[Zardnaar]

Not necessarily violent, but on average perhaps the kinds of people to go “well I’d be okay under Hitler because I wouldn’t be murdered.”

Well your the one who wants violent revolution.

It wouldn't be an election in NZ without the Greens shooting themselves in their foot.