Alternate History Thread V

I read this ("What if Kennedy had lived?") just now and it was an interesting counterpoint to what usually gets trotted out, although it glosses over JFK's health issues. Not sure how factual it really is, and it doesn't go very far in implications.

It seems very laudatory, to the point of seeming suspicious: like the authors just read one pro-Kennedy book or something and then decided to assume that this is what would have been. I'm hardly an expert on the time period, but it seems to me that Kennedy was a good politician and a bad/inconsistent statesman. He has vacillated plenty of times, going back and forth, and the people who believe he was consistently peaceful and cautious need to explain the Bay of Pigs invasion. :p I do not believe that his foreign policy would've been all that different from LBJ's, all things considered - maybe he would've struggled more against the currents, but events would probably have forced his hand.

Also, in 1964, Khruschev will have lost power; how Kennedy would have dealt with Brezhnev and Kosygin would be a whole different question. They certainly were less eager and less free to compromise on regional conflicts than their predecessor.
 
I thought the whole hawk/dove thing was pretty outlandishly overblown, too. If I follow the authors' reasoning, they believed that because Kennedy made 'dovish' (non-interventionary?) decisions more frequently than a certain limited sample of other statesmen, he would have made 'dovish' decisions in almost all other circumstances going forward, regardless of context.

This seems like a dubious assertion to me, but I probably know even less than das does about the sixties, so.
 
He has vacillated plenty of times, going back and forth, and the people who believe he was consistently peaceful and cautious need to explain the Bay of Pigs invasion. :p
This, at least, is fairly easy to field: he was sworn in Jan. 20, 1961, and was briefed on the plan on Jan. 28 (Nixon had prevented him from being briefed during the campaign), when he approved it. It went forward in April. He inherited Ike's program, had taken a hard line on Cuba, and was wet behind the ears and probably assumed it'd go off like Guatemala in 1954. Without being an expert on JFK by any means, it's pretty obvious the actual results are what soured him on subsequent military options and made him a skeptic in the first place.

Considering the weird nature of the Gulf of Tonkin Incident which really kicked off Vietnam (i.e., nothing actually really happened) and the later bizarre sabotage of the Paris Peace Accords by Nixon, Watergate, etc., I think keeping Kennedy alive is easily a big enough butterfly to tremendously alter the trajectory of the next 20 years even if he isn't as big a peacenik as they paint him. He did have a remarkable consistency in not listening to the military after Bay of Pigs though, which is I think their most interesting point. Whether he would've continued it or not is an open question though.
 
Point taken re: the Bay of Pigs. Still, I'm not convinced that things in Vietnam would have gone that differently. Wasn't he already consistently increasing American involvement there? And if the South Vietnamese situation continued to deteriorate, wouldn't he still have had to intervene more strongly, whatever his reservations? I really don't see him pulling out of Vietnam in response to the North Vietnamese continuing to make gains, the way the writers seem to do; that seems like it would have been political suicide at the time and in any case an option that is a lot more attractive in retrospect.

I suppose the article's main weakness is doesn't really seem to take into account the fact that the situations described continued to develop after Kennedy's death. Even assuming that he was a consistent dove, his policies did not exist in a vacuum.
 
I suppose the article's main weakness is doesn't really seem to take into account the fact that the situations described continued to develop after Kennedy's death. Even assuming that he was a consistent dove, his policies did not exist in a vacuum.
There's debate on the topic. Apparently there's some serious evidence JFK was at least contemplating a full withdrawal, and I don't think Noam Chomsky is the most credible person to be rebutting it.

Even if he didn't, JFK ad a serious thing for special forces (which were a large part of what he sent into Vietnam to begin with) and didn't seem to have a proclivity for micromanaging military ops like LBJ ultimately did. Of course, McNamara was still there with the Whiz Kids, so who knows. I feel the conduct of the war would've gone at least somewhat differently.
 
OOC: It seems my segments keep getting longer and longer. Hopefully this isn't too tedious; but I felt that with that build-up and the interest expressed in the thread, this episode of Russia's history probably deserves more details. The next one should hopefully be shorter though.

I'm disappointed at my inability to find the right version of Lyubo, bratsi, lyubo to go with this on Youtube.

IC:

Pushkin A.S. said:
God preserve us from seeing a Russian rebellion, senseless and merciless.

We may have to resign ourselves to the idea that we may never learn the true identity of the man who was Alexander. Although Burtsev’s Prikaz began to investigate his identity as soon as the news of his first “official” appearance in Kizlyar (in northeastern Caucasus) first reached St. Petersburg, the Republic’s agents’ reach was limited in the countryside even without being caught up in the midst of a major rebellion. The chaos that had come to reign there since last year made it harder than ever to track the movements of individual peasants or Cossacks. Burtsev’s spies also were distracted by their pursuit of red herrings: for the longest time they seemed to assume that he was either a Cossack or, more absurdly, a nobleman. While no one in the Republic’s higher echelons believed or would have admitted to believe the Kizlyar Pretender to be the real Alexander, the temptation to assume that they were dealing with a sinister counter-revolutionary aristocratic conspiracy was too great. They also searched assiduously for any sign of Metternich’s meddling, or that of the British. In the end, it took them months to first fall on the trial of what is now considered to be Alexander the Blessed’s most likely origin, barring him being the real deal: that he may have been one of the soldiers in the southern military settlements, who had fled during the chaos following their disbandment and Pestel’s revolt – or possibly just deserted even earlier. Sadly, that very chaos, coupled with Ivan Osipovich Witt’s nasty habit of “losing” all sorts of valuable documentation pertinent to the settlements, made a proper investigation nigh impossible even in later years.

It did not help that, as mentioned, a sufficient number of the Kizlyar Tsar’s followers appeared to be convinced of his claim. He had some things going for him. Like all true Romanovs, he was of above average height, and his overall build appeared to resemble that of the late Emperor – certainly those of his followers who had seen him before in Taganrog or St. Petersburg or during military parades were willing to vouch for it. Miraculously for a popular imposter, Pseudo-Alexander even appeared to possess basic literacy and grasp of mathematics, though that may if anything be a better argument for him being a former soldier. But he also had a certain authoritativeness to him, a certain charisma that helped him win over reluctant allies and perhaps was crucial in selling his legend to the masses. The incongruities: the facial hair, the Ukrainian accent, the fact that Alexander had received an official (if rushed and generally suspicious, which in retrospect can’t have helped) burial, all seemed to fall by the wayside.

Still, be that as it may, it was at first glance hard to see how even a very charismatic leader could threaten Pestel’s military supremacy. Certainly both the European observers and the authorities in St. Petersburg had vastly underestimated the uprising’s military potential. The latter were all the more foolish, considering Pugachev’s example. Part of the reason for their dismissiveness was that at first they mostly picked up on the association between Alexander and the sects, neglecting the rest of his supporters. The Dukhobors (they who wrestle alongside the Holy Spirit) and their surprisingly successful offshoots, the Molokans (they who drink of the spiritual milk of the Bible) were heterodox sects that somewhat resembled the more radical of English Dissenters (the Quakers were particularly quick to pick up on the similarities, rightly or not). They despised rituals, icons and all the trappings of the official Church that Pestel tried to uphold, preached the priesthood of all believers, and had prominent missionary efforts and a strong communal organisation guided by the elders. Those elders could wield immense authority and influence, which was somewhat undercut by their tendency towards corruption. This they countered with increasingly frantic preaching of the failure of the world around them and the approaching Kingdom of Christ, to arise in southern Russia. There will be no church, no property, no army and no statehood. Pestel has always despised them. His comrades, always fond of historical analogies, now likened him to Cromwell and the sect members to Levellers. Even if they were to cast off their pacifist beliefs, how much of a threat could they be?

Yet though the elders of the Dukhobors and the Molokans had played a major part in proclaiming Alexander the Blessed’s return as an omen of the Apocalypse, and even though they had, in fact, rallied their followers to form undisciplined, poorly armed, yet fanatical and huge mobs and wage a guerrilla war against Pestel’s forces, they were hardly the mainstay of the once and future Tsar’s support base. Deserters and mutinying soldiers, including many of the remnants of Yermolov’s Caucasian garrisons; ex-military settlers who had failed to adapt to civilian life; and, of course, the southern Cossack hosts, traditionally disgruntled and disinclined to trust their new government – all those formed the core of an army that, while far from being on par with professional forces, was also miles ahead of the mobs formed by the sects and expected by the republicans. And with the issues plaguing their own forces – uncertain morale and political allegiances, loose coordination between the armies, supply issues, desertion – one could hardly say that Pestel’s generals were in an enviable position when facing this rebellion, even when it was in its incipient, vulnerable state.

To their credit, the generals did not waste any time in trying to contain the insurrection. Diebitsh paid close attention to the developments in the countryside, and picked up on the first rumours of Alexander’s miraculous return back in June 1827. He was alarmed, being mindful of historical precedent – Pugachev, who had claimed to be Peter III, in particular looming large in his mind, but how exactly does one make war against a rumour or arrest a phantom? He and Paskevich continued their policy of de facto military occupation of Central and Little Russian countryside, only to receive a double-shock when the pretender fnally showed his face. The site he picked, Kizlyar, was a frontier city on the brink of loosely government-controlled territory in Caucasus; originally founded as a fortress for the Terek Host, it has since experienced a rapid boom and outgrew its original purpose, despite still being a vital Cossack centre. Since the revolution, even more people came to seek refuge there – fleeing north from the gazawat or south from the anarchy. There weren’t many nobles there – they preferred something closer to Europe and the European seas where possible – but plenty of Caucasian Christians, traders and Russian peasants, including sect members who have previously been used by the Imperial government to speed up the colonisation of the southern territories won from Turkey since the ascension of Catherine the Great. Even if the centre was relatively under control, the south was even more explosive than it was when Pestel left it. And yet it was Pestel’s own blunder that first lit the flame.

As a military man, Pestel considered the Cossacks indispensible as excellent irregular cavalry; as a fan of discipline and uniformity, he could not help but be irritated by their intransigent insistence on autonomy and privileges. In any case, as a statesman operating in the here and now, he found their wary, distant, calculating attitude towards the Republic as deeply suspect. By some accounts the Supreme Ruler may also have worried about the possibility of a Cossack uprising, perhaps coordinated with an Austro-Prussian invasion. If so, his forceful attempts to carry out a census of the Cossacks (starting with the ones in Europe), while sometimes considered nothing other than yet another example of a self-fulfilling prophecy may have been more along the lines of a controlled burn – triggering a premature rebellion that could be crushed before anyone else has a chance to use it. In any case, the revolutionary authorities have overplayed their hand. The Don Cossacks, mindful of Paskevich’s army, accepted the military instructors sullenly, but compliantly. The Astrakhan Host vacillated for the moment. The Terek and Black Sea Hosts, after remarkably little discussion and with no apparent coordination, arrested the inspectors and killed some of the soldiers that came with them. Their next step was not nearly as unanimous.

After the question of his true identity, there probably is no aspect of the Kizlyar Tsar’s story that is as widely debated among historians as the specific circumstances of his public emergence. The only point of agreement seems to be that there is no chance of such a convincing imposter (or even the actual Tsar) simply happening to show up at the wrong place in the wrong time, throwing a wrench in the works. Chipping away at the more outlandish versions – that it was a British plot carried out to some inscrutably British end, that it was Witt’s attempt to bring down Pestel, that Pestel had deliberately provoked the whole prising so as to have the opportunity to crush it, Cossacks and all – leaves the two main options. One was that he had been taken in by a group of Molokans earlier, who, led by a charismatic preacher named Lukyan Sokolov, had travelled to Kyzlyar and decided to make use of the developing situation to strike a blow against the government, by then seen as both an act of self-defense and an opportunity to guide Russia towards the kingdom of Heaven on Earth, an idea that certainly does not seem to have been out of character for Sokolov. A different version states that Alexander was either a Cossack or someone enjoying the hospitality of Ivan Nezlobov, one of the more radical Cossack leaders. Whichever faction decided to have him show his face in the Cossack quarter of Kizlyar in the midst of fierce debate on the Terek Host’s future course of action, the other was quick to make use of it. Sokolov and his followers came out in droves to acclaim the Tsar, surprising and alarming the Cossacks and other Kizlyarites with their numbers and fervour. Nezlobov and his supporters, until then close to being outargued by the old Cossack leadership that wished to exchange hostages and forestall rebellion for a variety of concessions and guarantees from the government, pointed this out as their trump card. The deciding moment was when many of the younger and the poorer Cossacks, already sympathetic towards Nezlobov, rallied outside to salute their Tsar. The Tsar himself said little at this point, but smiled serenely and took things in stride, convincing many of the more impressionable people present of his regal nature.

In the end, the Krug (circle; an assembly of the Cossacks, the first proper one since the days of Peter the Great) made its decision, despite the opposition from the elders. The Cossacks of the Terek Host would throw in with Alexander, and make war on Pestel and Yermolov, the latter being regarded by them as a tyrant and a traitor who had subverted many of their traditional freedoms. Alexander finally spoke, condemning the evil courtiers and generals who had perverted his will and kept him in the dark. He had escaped to live among the people, but upon hearing of how the generals turned against his brother and arrested him, knew that his duty would not allow him to retire. He promised to restore to the Cossacks all of their old glory and freedom, and abolished the positions of appointed commanders created by Yermolov, restoring the various elected positions he abolished. The younger Cossacks threw their hats in the air and saluted him with their swords; the elders were more restrained. They were however remarkably eager to nominate Nezlobov as the new ataman, as if to say: “you dragged us into this, now you will have to win or pay for this with your life”. Nezlobov likely felt this sentiment all too strongly; still, he did not refuse to lead. His reputation was based largely on defiance towards the Republic, but this has simply overshadowed the resourcefulness and courage he showed while fighting in the south under Yermolov. At the same time, Lukyan Sokolov, a life-long Molokan preacher and a man who had previously escaped from exile in Siberia to continue spreading the good word throughout southern Russia, finally had his big break. He told his gathered followers and the huddled refugees that the end of days was upon them, and that Alexander the Blessed’s return was the forerunner of the return of Christ. Control over Russia had been seized by nefarious, Antichristian, German forces. And though they were peaceful in all other things, true Spiritual Christians were permitted and, indeed, obliged to resist with force if necessary, when faced by those who wished for their destruction and enslavement. Just what he had in mind would become apparent in the months to come.

It would soon transpire that there was no great love lost between Nezlobov, the first military leader of the uprising, and Sokolov, who would go on to monopolise his position as its spiritual leader. But though the former would never admit it, the two had much in common: both were brave, good with words, already mildly infamous with authorities to the point of being above suspicion when it came to charges of cooperating with them, and also both of them were more disturbing to the leaders of their respective societies than to the enemies they fought. The Dukhobor and Molokan elders at large either did not care for Sokolov’s apocalyptic preaching or were annoyed by how some jumped-up peasant was threatening to usurp their positions and following. But usurp them he did, and now many of them were faced with the choice of principled resistance to rebellion, at the risk of alienating their followers and also playing to the tune of a government they despised and were similarly despised by, or… No, not recognising Sokolov as their leader, of course. But trying to outbid him, and take control of the revolts that still simmered in the Russian countryside lest they overtake them and flock to him. As the word of Alexander’s miraculous return and his supposed promises to give all land to the peasants spread, more and more of them found their hands forced. As one elder would later explain, he had every reason to believe that Pestel would arrest and execute him for treason anyway, whether he actually rebelled or not – and so he did. The republicans had largely been able to keep some semblance of order in the northern and central regions, not without some heavy-handed measures such as demonstrative hangings of rebels. In the Tambov and Voronezh guberniyas though, and further south, where both sectarian beliefs and the traditions of what used to be a steppe frontier were strong, and displaced and disgruntled populations were numerous, the government forces sent to suppress the Terek Host’s rebellion soon found themselves facing a religious uprising that, in its own way, was no less fierce than the gazawat.

The original gazawat, it must be noted, was not sleeping. By the end of July, the Russian presence south of the Kuban and Terek rivers was all but gone. The forces behind the gazawat were not united, however. The Circassians, allied with the Ottomans, were completely separate from Ghazi Mullah’s movement in Chechnya and Dagestan, and had their own local religious leaders resisting his influence; and the latter itself began to show fault-lines, as Ghazi Mullah’s attempts to establish the Imamate and strictly impose the norms of the sharia over the pre-Islamic adat clan law ran into resistance from many elements of the old clan elites. While the Chechens could not care less about the Ottoman push into Georgia and Armenia, the Safavid advance into southern Dagestan has posed a distinct challenge that has also been used as a new common threat to rally against in the absence of Russians. The Terek Cossacks and the Black Sea Host (which has by then declared for Tsar Alexander as well) managed to take advantage of those conflicts. The Black Sea Host’s ataman Grigoriy Matveyev negotiated a truce and a prisoner exchange with the Circassians, subtly assisted in this by the Ottomans who were only too happy to add to Russia’s troubles at the time. The Terek Cossacks, also, were able to reach a similar and more extensive agreement with the Imamate – in exchange for allowing the return of Russian and Cossack prisoners, hold-out soldiers and colonists, they allowed Imam Ghazi to take possession of the remaining fortresses, most notably Grozny, and even let him keep a good portion of the local artillery and munitions. With this edge, the Imamate’s opponents were temporarily cowed into rallying around it to stop the Persian invasion. The local khans, previously weakened by Yermolov’s policies aimed at breaking their local power and autonomy, now had to fall in line under an Islamic theocracy – a cruel reversal both from his and from their points of view.

Once free, the returned soldiers and Cossacks were grateful to be relieved and for the most part did not care for or recognise the Provisional Supreme Government. In any case, they swore no oaths to it – but did swear an oath to Alexander. The officers were much more ambivalent – but then, the most high-ranking ones were either dead or with Yermolov. Those who refused to recognise Alexander were put under arrest, but not harmed, on the Tsar’s personal insistence. But a not-insignificant number of lower-ranking officers, especially those of humbler origins, had agreed to join Alexander – though many of them harboured doubts about his identity, they did owe him a debt of gratitude, which was more than what they could say for Pestel or Yermolov by this point. A few sought vengeance or a new, faster career; Major Vikentiy Kozlovsky, who was to emerge as the leader of the “Caucasians” in Alexander’s forces, was more clearminded than this and had assumed from the start that their rebellion would ultimately fail. But he had a duty to his soldiers… and so he lended his resourcefulness and vigour to the Kizlyar Pretender, working to reorganise the non-Cossack soldiers that came under his command into a fighting force. With the Astrakhan Host likewise declaring for the Tsar, by the time August was over the uprising had become a legitimately formidable force, if just in its southwestern corner of the country.

Paskevich and Diebitsch have been stalled. The Voronezh and Tambov guberniyas that they respectively have been trying to pacify were aflame. Of course, the Molokan and Dukhobor rebellions were not a serious military threat to their forces. But their attacks on the remaining landlords and officials, their massacres of isolated garrisons and their destruction of key infrastructure and warehouses threw the entire area into anarchy that could not easily resolved – and any attempts to crush them only resulted in their mob-like armies scattering for a while and then reforming again. Banditry, both connected and unconnected to the rebellions, was rife in the armies’ rear, and Diebitsch for one was not about to push on with an unending peasant war behind his lines. Paskevich decided on a solution. Leaving Diebitsch with the ungrateful task of trying to suppress the rebellions, he quickly moved his forces to the Don Cossack Host’s lands, nipping a local Alexandrist conspiracy in the bud and mobilising the Host. Then he invaded the Astrakhan guberniya. At first glance, it seemed a lot more quiescent then Tambov and Voronezh. The local Cossacks, miraculously, did not forget their duty to hunt bandits and keep the peace. But as he advanced through the steppe, the resistance intensified. Cossacks and and the local Kalmyks, who after some hesitation also threw in with the Tsar, harassed his army’s advance – the Don Cossacks limited the effectiveness of this harassment considerably, but as they were fighting on the enemy’s turf, there was only so much that they could do. Irate, Paskevich implemented scorched earth tactics as he moved down the Volga, razing the Cossack stanitsas to break the Astrakhan Host’s resistance. He also succeeded in capturing the strategic fortress of Yenotaevsk. But that delay, plus the stiffened resistance he encountered from the Cossacks and the region’s numerous Molokans, proved fatal. By the time he got to Astrakhan, it was thoroughly fortified and prepared for a siege. Sokolov, who had travelled there prior to the siege, was able to whip up the city’s Russian population into a religious frenzy, ransacking the churches and executing officials, nobles and clergy – once again the Tsar had to intervene to keep him from attacking their families as well. Yet Sokolov’s zeal paid off now that the city was under siege – unlike the previous times when that city rebelled against the central government, no one dared openly suggest capitulation, and Paskevich’s spies were soon rooted out and executed in the sight of his army, as were a good few other people. Moreover, Paskevich’s efforts to cut Astrakhan off from Kizlyar had only very limited success. While he was able to win most of his skirmishes with the Alexandrists, every victory he achieved was impermanent and yet strained at his resources. Finally, in October, Paskevich was forced to retreat upon the news of a Dukhobor rebellion in eastern Ukraine and the Don Cossack lands. While Diebitsch had by then been able to once again restore peace in much of Tambov and Voronezh, it still preoccupied too much of his forces. The rebellion would not be crushed so quickly.
 
Needless to say, Pestel and his allies were livid. They were also frightened. The scale of the potential disaster was starting to become apparent as new uprisings appeared further up the Volga and throughout the Urals and Siberia. Admittedly, those were not so much organised rebellions as the local authorities losing what semblance of control they had previously been able to retain by bluffing… but once they lost control, would not the Kizlyar Tsar or some other local leader easily fill the vacuum? A holy place is never empty, as the Russian proverb went. Among the revolutionaries there was also a great deal of paranoia as to the actions of Paskevich. Faddey Bulgarin – once a soldier in Napoleon’s Polish legions, now one of the most prominent Russian journalists and publishers – muddled the waters by spreading rumours and accusations that the general was seeking to betray the Repubic and join up with the Imposter (he was a little more restrained in his journals, wary of Pestel’s censorship; the radical pamphlets distributed by the underground had no such concerns, accusing both Paskevich and Pestel of treason). The fact that he had abandoned the siege of Astrakhan without a major battle seemed to give at least some credence to this view. Pestel was able to keep a cold head, as always. Even if there was something to the rumours, antagonising Paskevich at this point would push him into the rebel camp if he was not there already, and the consequences of that would make an already unacceptably bad situation into a catastrophe. This levelheadedness came at the price of pushing away some of the more radical revolutionaries.

It must be admitted that despite spreading paranoia about the Russian generals, the rebellion was not without its political advantages for the Supreme Ruler. The pillars of the old order, the survivors of the provincial aristocracy, officials, wealthy merchants and the Russian Orthodox Church, were frightened by the spectre of Pugachev and the massacres that took place in rebel territories, exaggerated though their understanding of those massacres was. Their cooperation with the government was now assured. And even as the radicals chaffed at Pestel’s new order and alliance with the fragments of the old, the moderates, including Trubetskoy and even Burtsev, now were more committed to an alliance with him than ever. While Trubetskoy would have preferred to restore a constitutional monarchy to ensure that Europe does not stab Pestel’s Russia in the back, he proved willing to defer to Pestel’s leadership for now and to organise the liberal ex-nobility in the major cities to support the new government. To his credit, Pestel himself does not appear to have been pleased by the rebellion’s benign side-effects. While political unity was well and good, he saw that this rebellion had not only delayed the implementation of his reforms but also badly endangered Russia’s southern frontier. This, and the loss of life and disruption of economy involved, had made him all the more determined to stop the rebellion as soon as possible. In 1828, he dispatched Yermolov to keep the rebellion from spreading to the Urals, even as his other two generals focused on containing it in European Russia.

The holding action that the Alexandrists carried out at Astrakhan was critical. It gave Nezlobov and Kozlovsky the time they needed to organise their forces, sort out their supply situation, restore order in the areas they occupied and make plans for the new year. Diebitsch and Paskevich had focused on securing their rear and logistics; they did not dare to attack again before the spring. By then the rebels were ready to face them. Paskevich and his forces had retreated to the Don, to deal with uprisings there. In spring, the one-time rising star of the Emperor’s army was prepared to attack the mutinous Black Sea Host. Diebitsch had taken over Tsaritsyn and prepared for another go at Astrakhan. And Yermolov was now heading down the long path to Ural River. Their timing and coordination wasn’t perfect, but they had the advantage in numbers, training and equipment, and the overall strategic plan, loose though it was, bore the mark of Pestel’s characteristic ruthless thoroughness. The rebellion will be contained and snuffed out. It will be pushed back into Kizlyar and then crushed.

Alexander’s faithful subjects took stock of their own advantages. Those were: high morale; a superior number of irregular cavalry, both Cossack and steppe nomad; overwhelming popular support in many parts of southern Russia; a willingness to bargain with non-Russian groups on the frontier; surprisingly good organisation and coordination, the sects aside; and, apparently, either good spies or informers within enemy ranks. While their foreknowledge of enemy movements was far from perfect, it was enough for Alexander’s officers to put together an audacious plan. It was risky, but the alternative was to let the republicans retake the initiative for good. And Nezlobov – by now firmly acknowledged as something of a first among equals among the rebel leaders, if still second after the largely passive Tsar – had a well-deserved reputation as a gambler. He was perfectly willing to stake the rebellion’s success on this campaign.

Paskevich was the first to run into trouble. He had marched down to the Kuban, intent on repeating his scorched earth tactics on the Cossack stanitsas to cow them into surrendering. Those tactics had the secondary goal of drawing out Alexander’s main forces. In this, Paskevich had succeeded far beyond his expectations. After a series of skirmishes with ataman Matveyev’s forces, the republican army laid siege to Yekaterinodar, the Black Sea Host’s central fortress. During the siege, Paskevich learned that Nezlobov was moving from the east with a large rebel army. Suspecting this to be a feint, the government commander continued the siege, hoping to take the fortress by storm before responding to this provocation. However, his assault preparations were unexpectedly disrupted by a large-scale Circassian raid: while not outright allied with the Cossacks, the Circassians allowed themselves to be bribed into making some use of this chaos – not without some Ottoman involvement. Despite having fought off the raid, Paskevich soon found that his position was far from secure. Black Sea Host Cossacks and Circassians threatened his flanks, and the sectarian resistance still simmered in his rear. If Nezlobov’s army attacked, he could still drive it off – but with considerable losses. Contrary to Matveyev’s hopes and expectations, Paskevich still stormed Yekaterinodar in early April, once again proving his competence as an artillery general, razing the stanitsa and publicly executing some of the rebel leaders (but not Matveyev himself, who managed to get away in time). He repeated this with several other Cossack settlements before pulling back, holding off Nezlobov’s forces in rearguard skirmishes. By then, however, much of the Imposter’s forces had already shifted to the east.

Yermolov, who had set out for the Urals very eartly in the year, was torn. The old general was not pleased to follow the orders of a whippersnapper like Pestel, especially after the power struggle had cost him – and Russia – all of his gains in Caucasus. His ambition demanded that should either seize power or at least disobey. But his sense of self-preservation argued that this may not work out for him. Between Burtsev, Kiselyov and Pestel himself, the new rulers were hard to conspire against. Witt may have been an ally, but he was a coward – and Yermolov himself found the man personally distasteful. And besides, he did have a sense of duty before his Fatherland as well. A coup, he decided, would have to wait until after the Russian state’s survival was assured… even as he felt the opportunities slip away.

By the time he reached his destination, the Urals were already in the throes of a rebellion. Nevertheless, for once, things were not as bad as the St. Petersburg government had feared. True, several factories have been taken over by rebels, and control over the countryside was all but lost. The Old Believer-dominated Ural Cossack Host – once the Yaik Host that had supported Pugachev – had, after much deliberation, acknowledged the return of Alexander the Blessed, arrested their appointed commanders and rose up against the Republic, though its leadership had no real ties with Kizlyar as of yet and did not seem to be in any hurry to establish such. The Bashkirs, however, were still waiting on the sidelines. And government forces retained control over most of the non-Cossack fortresses and cities in the region. This was at least partly the accomplishment of the imperial governor of the Perm guberniya, Kirill Yakovlevich Tyufyaev, who had proved to be an unexpectedly useful and vigorous ally to the Republic. Between him and Yermolov, the disorganised rebel-slash-bandit gangs in the countryside proved fairly easy to suppress. By the end of spring most of the factories were retaken and the most persistent pockets of rebellion were isolated; also, in a major coup reminiscent of his divide-and-conquer policies in the Caucasus, Yermolov has succeeded in making the Bashkirs join his side in exchange for some rather vague promises and the more important guarantee that their previous hesitation will not be held against them. While Pestel had expected Yermolov to stay on the defensive at first, the old man had no intent of holding back and came up with a plan for a pincer move past Astrakhan and towards Kizlyar itself. Left on their own and deprived of Kizlyar’s support, the Ural Cossacks fought hard, but without much planning or organisation. In late June of 1828, Yermolov seized Uralsk, the centre of the Ural Host. Resistance was not broken, but it was reeling.

And it was then that, in one of those great accidents that drastically change history, the conqueror of Caucasus fell prey to the cholera epidemic that had been previously devastating both his opponents and his own troops, and died a couple of days later. As a contemporary commented, neither the young nor the old, neither the great nor the small were exempt from the nation’s second, greater yet less mentioned tragedy. (Of course, a general of an army operating near the shore of the Caspian Sea where cholera had first entered Russia and where it never really appeared to abate was particularly susceptible.) The people in the Caucasus did not celebrate the news of his death, because they did not believe them. Elsewhere in Russia, the Republic’s military mourned, as did many of the revolutionaries. It’s hard to say what Pestel felt about it. He can’t have been ignorant of the potential challenge that Yermolov still posed to his government. But on the other hand, the loss of such a capable commander was a blow – and one that came at a bad time. While Yermolov’s most trusted lieutenant, Aleksey Aleksandrovich Velyaminov, had soon asserted control of his Caucasian Corps, the organisational and morale problems that he was soon swamped with had delayed him, and in any case the opportunity for a strike west was lost. By then the strategic situation had developed in an unanticipated fashion.

The second siege of Astrakhan was a grandiose undertaking. Diebitsch had seemingly gone out of his way to ensure that he could not be accused of being half-hearted in his efforts to quell the insurrection. The rebellion’s irregulars made every effort to disrupt the siege, with broadly the same forces and tactics as during Paskevich’s first effort; however, Diebitsch had come more prepared and managed to establish an effective blockade of the city. The outbreak of cholera, related to the one that claimed Yermolov, hurt forces on both side of the blockade, and turned Astrakhan into a hellscape. But Sokolov’s stubborn refusal to fall ill only added to his own reputation as a holy man, and the defenders remained as stalwart as always. Diebitsch’s situation developed for the worse, however, when Nezlobov and Matveyev returned with the main Alexandrist army from the west. They had done so quicker than he had expected – and it seemed that neither Paskevich nor Yermolov were about to relieve him. Suddenly Diebitsch was faced with the prospect of taking on a rebel army that was actually slightly larger than his – that being without including Astrakhan’s fanatical defenders, the Kalmyks and Astrakhan Cossacks that harried his flanks, and the remnants of sectarian rebels and bandits to his north. Further, the cholera had sapped his forces, while Nezlobov’s army was as yet mostly untouched. Thus, when Nezlobov laid siege to Yenotaevsk, threatening Diebitsch’s army, the German general found no choice but to pull back. In the fierce battle that followed, he managed to repel the attack despite his army’s adverse situation – but not to rout Nezlobov, whose forces had simply retreated. Impressed by his enemy’s organisation and horrified by his losses from cholera and the fighting, Diebitsch was forced to abandon the plan to renew the siege of Astrakhan.

But the rebel pressure was not going to let up. Even as the epidemic began to collect its heavy toll from Nezlobov’s main army, the ataman regrouped his forces, linking up with the Astrakhan Cossacks and Kalmyks, and prepared to attack Yenotaevsk again – only to find a small garrison left behind by Diebitsch as the latter pulled back to Tsaritsyn. The fortress did not hold out long, but lasted enough for the republicans to leave their pursuers behind. However, Diebitsch had underestimated his enemy’s resolve. Not content with reclaiming the Astrakhan guberniya, the Alexandrists pushed further north to besiege Tsaritsyn. Though no longer a proper fortress, Tsaritsyn did have the advantage in Diebitsch’s eyes of having a considerable population of German colonists as well as the more well-to-do, orthodox Russian urban dwellers that had plenty to lose at the hands of a horde of the heretical, murderous poor. The merchants and “notable persons” (i.e. nobles) organised a militia to help Diebitsch defend the city. Two attempts to take it in a headstrong assault had failed, but Kozlovsky was able to set up a more organised siege. Even with what they had been able to take from the Caucasus and southern garrisons, however, the rebels lacked for artillery, and their logistical situation was not much better than Diebitsch’s. Accordingly, their best bet was to ransack the countryside and launch raids further into the Saratov guberniya, which was understood by some of the Cossacks to be a sort of retaliation against Paskevich’s earlier scorched earth tactics. In early July, Diebitsch was able to sally out and temporarily break the siege, but the rebels, despite a momentary breakdown, managed to not only successfully regroup on the eastern side of the river, but also besiege the smaller garrison and militia that remained in Tsaritsyn. It was around then that Diebitsch had learned of Yermolov’s death.

As Pestel received the reports of the situation, he did his best to suppress his extreme displeasure at the way his overall strategic plan utterly fell apart. Still, it seemed that the situation still favoured the government forces. Diebitsch was in position to land a decisive blow at Nezlobov’s army, one from which the Alexandrist cause would probably not recover. While Paskevich’s tardiness was not appreciated, it allowed the Cossack nobleman to conserve his forces and now put him into position to strike at Astrakhan or Kizlyar more or less at will. And if that was not enough, Velyaminov’s army was still in place to outflank the rebels from the east. This archaic uprising had gone on for too long – but looking at the strategic situation in the south, there were no reasons to expect it to get any further or to last beyond the year.

There were, however, several factors elsewhere that had not been accounted for. Despite not suffering any actual defeats, and despite Pestel’s best efforts to keep the military’s retreats out of public knowledge, the government’s failure to suppress the uprising had let those who despised it raise their heads again. A new round of rural dissent now kicked off in northern European Russia, as cholera, hunger, millenialist agitation and popular unease with a republican government all spurned the people to start attacking officials, notables and priests. It spilled out into the cities – including St. Petersburg. Alarmed, Pestel sent in the military to suppress the riots – against Burtsev’s and Trubetskoy’s protests. While order was soon restored, it was not done without a fair amount of bloodshed. The radicals now felt even more alienated from Pestel. The pamphlet campaign that started after Paskevich’s initial failure to crush the rebellion was now intensified and changed its focus somewhat. Pestel was called “Tsar Pavel II”, and accused of being an enemy of the people who had tried to fool them with the pretense of the republic while allying with their old tormentors. On the 17th of July, a group of conspirators nominally led by the poet Wilhelm Kuchelbekker (a veteran Northerner and another German patriot of everything Russian) had attacked the members of the Duma on their way to the Admiralty Building. Their initial plan was to make an “infernal machine”, but after the explosive failure of their early efforts, they had decided to stick to guns. Kuchelbekker, who had been a distant acquaintance, managed to get close to Pestel. He was of a nervous disposition and his hands shook as he made the attempt. He fired… at Witt, who felt that something was wrong and tried to stop him. His second shot barely grazed Pestel. Some of his co-conspirators managed to use the chaos and get the Supreme Ruler twice, once in the shoulder and once in the leg, before being dragged away by the city police. The rest were stopped by the garrison that stood watch at the building. Pestel received swift medical assistance, only to discover that his wounds, while major, were not life-threatening (he would go on to walk with a noticeable limp for the rest of his life). Witt died within the half-hour.

Of course, this was not enough to cause an actual crisis. If anything, many of Pestel’s supporters were only glad to be rid of Witt. He was a consummate immoralist with contempt for revolutionary ideals, loyalty to the throne, honour and basic decency as his contemporaries understood it. He flouted his ill-begotten wealth, kept nigh-explicit concubines and made no secret of supporting Pestel solely for his own political benefit. And yet his support had been critical back in 1826; without his help, Pestel would never have been able to get as far as he did. Perhaps the revolutionaries were also glad to be rid of the reminder. For his part, Pestel attended his funeral, and then appointed the dead man’s rival Burtsev to replace him in the Duma. Burtsev, however, had other problems. Firstly, Witt’s spy network proved impossible to salvage, having been held up by him alone. To compound the issue, most of his documents had been destroyed or hidden. Secondly, the few reports that Burtsev was able to find hinted at a large-scale monarchist conspiracy that had somehow evaded the detection of the Prikaz. And thirdly, he had to deal with the rumours about the assassination. In St. Petersburg, they were focused on the question of who was really behind it all. Further away, in places like Riga and Novgorod, people began to claim that he was much more heavily injured than the government had claimed. And in Moscow and further away, the prevailing notion was that he was dead and the capital was in chaos. The riots that other radicals had tried to organise did nothing to dispel the latter notion. It did not take very long for Burtsev to suppress those riots and then carry out a crackdown on the radical societies and underground publishers. As Pushkin, watching the situation develop from the capital, had observed, the radical boogeymen had turned out to be wholly impotent, no more intimidating than the Jacobin Club in the last few weeks of its existence. But the government feared those who were like it; it feared to stumble, through negligence, into the same situation that brought down the Romanovs; and perhaps this also spoke to its unspoken guilt, about its rebellion and about having turned from rebels into tyrants.

Be that as it may, the illusion of anarchy, however brief, at this critical moment had proved to be the last straw or the final push for many of the observers, confirming their fears or their wishful thinking. In early August 1828, two deeply troubling reports reached St. Petersburg. The first indicated that, despairing at their plot to free the Tsar having been discovered yet also encouraged by the chaos in the capital, the monarchists had finally made their move. They chose the Ostzean guberniyas, or Baltic provinces, as a base, seeking to turn it into a Russian Vendée. That was overly optimistic, as the monarchist cause could not gather any serious popular support among the peasants there, and did not even try; still, the Baltic provinces, with their entrenched German aristocracy and their various legal and administrative peculiarities that Pestel had not yet properly tackled, were indeed fertile ground for a counter-revolutionary uprising. Furthermore, the monarchists had hoped to receive Prussia’s assistance – although Frederick William III was reluctant to start another war when he was already engaged in stomping out surprisingly fierce Polish resistance, they believed that he could be persuaded by their early successes. They did accomplish some things worth boasting about in August: subverting a number of sympathetic officials and officers including two out of three Baltic governors and most of the local garrison commanders, as well as inviting Prince Fabian Gottlieb von der Osten-Sacken, a Russian general of some accomplishment who had previously seemed willing to work with the new government, to take command of their makeshift army. Still, the defection of a few minor garrisons was deemed by Pestel to be the least of his problems. The second bit of news was a lot more disturbing and outrageous. Pestel’s gamble of trusting the old regime generals to put the interests of the state over their own political sympathies or ambitions had finally failed, though he could not yet be sure how.

Hans Karl von Diebitsch had worked out a deal with Nezlobov. He did not suddenly turn around and declare for the Tsar in Kizlyar. Instead, he bargained for the Cossacks to let his forces leave Tsaritsyn and retreat in peace, getting out of their way and leaving the path wide open further up the Volga, potentially going all the way to Moscow. The rebels were greatly tempted to take advantage of the situation. However, they were having problems of their own: conflicts between the soldiers and the Cossacks, the ever-present cholera epidemic and Paskevich, who even now was heading for Kizlyar itself. In the end, a compromise decision was reached. Raids were sent out to scout out the north, make sure that Diebitsch does not renege on the deal and spread chaos among the heretofore relatively peaceful provinces. The larger part of the army, however, headed south. It arrived just in time to confront Paskevich, whose siege of Kizlyar was frustrated by the actions of the nearby highlander clans. While not really allied with Alexander, the Chechens and the Ingush were only too happy to make Paskevich’s life harder, raiding his camp and carrying on a brisk trade with the besieged. Paskevich himself had been injured during one particularly daring Ingush raid. Thus the arrival of Nezlobov’s forces came at a bad time, when the usually decisive and quick-thinking commander was convalescing. The ensuing fight was a close-ran thing. No matter how precarious their position or how dreadful the toll the war and the epidemic had been taking from them, Paskevich’s soldiers were still among the best in the Russian army, and a good deal more disciplined than the opposition. Nezlobov’s army, in the meantime, still had high spirits from earlier successes, but was also tired from its long march and was far from unscathed. Yet in the end, what happened was the rebellion’s first major tactical victory. The republican lines were broken and the army was routed – only to be pursued by the rebel irregulars, taking heavy casualties. Paskevich was only barely able to regain some measure of control and save some of his forces by pulling out northwards, but with the bloody nose he got, there was now no question of trying to go on the offensive again.

The rebel position should not be overestimated. Despite all their clever tactics, all their diplomacy and all their good luck, their principal weaknesses were just starting to emerge. Going on the offensive required far better logistics than they couldmanage, and many of the Cossacks began to chafe at the centralised command. The Tsar had to keep Sokolov and newly-promoted General Kozlovsky off each others’ throats. The Dukhobor elders increasingly seemed displeased with the actions and teachings of the Molokan leaders, especially as Sokolov’s followers, younger and more charismatic rather than elderly, experienced and thoughtful, began to take over the sect as a whole, edging out its earlier leadership. The socio-economic experiments of communal property were also progressing with unclear effectiveness and reminded some outsiders of military settlements – though Nezlobov had been able to turn the system to his own use to partly mitigate the Alexandrist supply problems. Thus the rebels ended up using the autumn to resolve some of their issues and sweep the others under the rug. Nezlobov was getting impatient, though. He introduced an equivalent of conscription to fill up his army’s ranks, something that was not as resisted as one might expect because staying at home was an increasingly risky prposition for many of the peasants. And in December, despite the many arguments against it, the Tsar’s ataman insisted on starting a new northern campaign. This proved to be a wise choice, as it took the government forces by surprise. By the time of Catholic Christmas, the rebels defeated the smaller army sent to prevent their advance up the Volga and seized Samara. While Velyaminov had managed to keep them from moving on Kazan, Nezlobov swerved to the west and took Tambov, to the joy of the local populace. The pro-rebel sentiments were much weaker in Ryazan, but the small force sent out there under Denis Vasilyevich Davydov (himself a legend of 1812, and also Yermolov’s cousin) was only able to deny the city to the rebels until the start of February. After that, the rebels, though exhausted and reduced to living off the land despite Nezlobov’s best efforts, came within sight of Moscow. And this time, the Tsar himself was with them.

Returning for a bit to autumn 1827, rebel successes, Diebitsch’s apparent betrayal and the monarchist uprising in Riga had caused a panic in the capital. The people who were previously sure that the rebellion may ravage the south but never spread past that had suddenly become convinced that the Republic was going to fall in a matter of days. Again, Pestel’s secrecy had worked against him, and the scale of the reverses suffered was greatly exaggerated. The notables from all over northwestern Russia flooded to St. Petersburg – and to Riga, where they expected Grand Duke Michael to arrive and either restore his brother to the throne or take it for himself. A fair amount of the well-to-do left St. Petersburg for Riga or points further west as well, despite the government’s efforts to stop them. Even among Pestel’s loyalists, there was discussion on whether it would not be better to make peace with the rebels and let them have the south. After all, that wild land was more trouble than it was worth to civilise; it was full of strange dialects, stranger sects, and Cossacks, and Muslims, and pagans who would not easily submit to the Republic. Why not let the Imposter have them? Pestel would hear none of it, though. Russia was big, but still not big enough for two different governments; and besides, on some level he was sure that whoever was really in charge on the enemy side felt that way too. Instead, he tightened up the screws, putting the major cities under his control on wartime standing and suppressing the nascent newspapers. He deliberately sent out paltry forces to deal with the rebellion. Partly it was because he did not expect them to be able to get to Moscow any time soon, but partly it was because protecting St. Petersburg was by far the bigger priority for him. Burtsev was sent to reprise his role as a military commander by organising a new Republican Guard, now that the radical influences had been purged to Pestel’s momentary satisfaction. And Sergey Volkonsky was given command over much of the Second Army that was stationed at St. Petersburg itself.
 
By then the monarchist conspiracy was already starting to run into problems. Both the Prussians and Metternich continued to vacillate on the degree of support that they were willing to provide. Without a guarantee of being able to secure St. Petersburg, Grand Duke Michael remained in Berlin – a wise decision in many ways, but one that could not help but damage the rebellion’s credibility. The monarchist forces on the ground were now coopted by Otto Reinhold Johann von Rosen, a leader of Estlandic nobility, even though von der Osten-Sacken remained the putative military commander. They also had limited success in trying to recruit support beyond the Baltic provinces. Some of the Lithuanian nobles were willing to throw in with them, but the monarchists had failed to realise that in the eyes of much of surviving Russian nobility further east, Pestel was the lesser evil in defending against neo-Pugachevists, while Michael’s efforts, how ever well-intentioned, were a potential threat to their survival. The Swedish aristocracy of Finland, too, found that it had little in common with the Baltic Germans; while annoyed by Pestel’s centralising and anti-aristocratic policies, they felt, for now, that they were much less threatened by them than the Germans. The one attempt to start a counter-revolutionary conspiracy in Vyborg, promising due to its proximity to St. Petersburg, was quickly snuffed out by the Prikaz. While rumours of Hans Karl von Diebitsch, whom the monarchists had previously tried to recruit to their side, leaving Tsaritsyn were probably welcome news, his intentions, outside of moving towards the capital with his entire army, were still unclear. And above all, of course, the news of Pestel’s death and St. Petersburg being thrown into anarchy proved to be badly exaggerated, which put something of a dampener on their initial plan of simply marching in and restoring order.

The republicans were likewise unclear as to Diebitsch’s intentions. However, they did not feel as though they could afford the luxury of doubt. Instead they decided to operate on the assumption that he intended to join up with von der Osten-Sacken. Burtsev and Volkonsky thus decided to waste no time in countering the Baltic army.

Ultimately the monarchists’ greatest weakness proved to be the division in their command. While Osten-Sacken, more cautious, insisted on taking his own forces to besiege Pskov, Rosen, anxious that their hesitation may have already cost them their greatest opportunity to behead the serpent of the revolution, struck out towards the capital with the monarchist garrisons and the Baltic militia. Rosen’s forces successfully took Narva, but were stopped decisively at Gatchina by Burtsev’s Republican Guard. Despite the disorganisation of the newly-formed paramilitary unit, Burtsev was able to give chase, stopping only after retaking Narva. In the meantime, on the 10th of October, Osten-Sacken – already frustrated by the resistance of the local militia – was confronted by Volkonsky. He put up a brave fight against the numerically-superior government forces, but in the end was forced to retreat, suffering numerous desertions along the way. While the Baltic German leaders had every intention to fight on, the notion of a rapid counter-revolution was dead in the water.

Hans Karl von Diebitsch was the greater threat. After his initial maneuvering and efforts to secure supplies, he finally struck towards St. Petersburg in December, occupying Novgorod along the way. Volkonsky, who was trying to give chase to Osten-Sacken’s army after yet another victory, was forced to pull out of Livonia and move to face the traitorous commander. Burtsev’s forces had tried to halt Diebitsch at Tosna, on the way to St. Petersburg, but were repelled. Soon, the capital itself was under siege. Notably, though, despite the road there being wide open, Diebitsch made no effort to free the Tsar and his family in Schlisselburg to the east. Perhaps he did not wish to waste his time storming a fortress on an island, how ever lightly-guarded. Or perhaps he simply thought the Tsar of little importance himself. Pestel, for his part, resisted the cries for the Imperial family to be executed – while some attribute this to Trubetskoy’s pleading, it is not impossible that he wished to leave some room for later maneuver.

The siege of St. Petersburg dragged on into the new year. It seems likely that Diebitsch wished to repeat what Pestel himself did when he seized power. In that case, however, he was to be disappointed. While the Republican Guard was unable to stand against him in a straightforward battle, all his attempts to push into the city inevitably ran into fierce resistance. The street battles of the early revolution were reprised – except, unlike Miloradovich, Diebitsch had failed to secure any lasting footholds inside the city, if just barely so. On the 18th of January, Diebitsch learned of Volkonsky approaching to put him between the hammer and the anvil. What happened next had marked the end of a very short, but crucial era in Russian history. Diebitsch’s attempt to launch one more desperate assault on the city was faced with a mutiny. When it was harshly suppressed, the assault went ahead and actually had some early successes, but eventually crawled to a halt. And when Diebitsch tried to renew it, his own subordinates shot him and surrendered to Volkonsky. Diebitsch and Yermolov were gone; Paskevich was, at least for the moment, marginalised; Osten-Sacken, while successful in reasserting his control over the Baltic provinces, was not a force on the imperial scale. Pestel was in control. The age of warlords, when a general could act as an independent political force without the support of any other groups or institutions, was over. In a centralised empire, the main remaining conflict was between the central government and the rebellious periphery.

It was not long before the latter reminded the triumphant republicans of its existence. Celebrations of the successful defense of St. Petersburg were interrupted by the news of Moscow falling into rebel hands in February 19th, assisted by a spontaneous uprising of the city poor. Hardly fifteen years had passed since the old capital last burned during the war with Napoleon. The Cossacks and sectarians had arguably managed to do even greater damage, dealing a killing blow to any plans to return the capital to Moscow that some of the liberalists entertained. Even the Tsar and Kozlovsky could not stop their looting spree, further augmented by the iconoclastic tendencies of some of the sect leaders (Sokolov, for once, tried to rein them in somewhat despite having no fondness for the icons, but found that by now even he could only do so much). While many nobles and priests were able to escape, the loss to their ranks was still considerable; the most famous victim of the attackers was Philaret, the Metropolitian of Moscow, who had previously opposed Pestel but supported the emancipation of the serfs, and who refused to flee before the uprising or the attack on the city. Nezlobov demanded that the Metropolitian acknowledge the returned Tsar. Philaret stared him down and refused. Before the Tsar could say anything, Nezlobov, who was tired of compromises, cut the Metropolitian down on the spot, and told his Cossacks to finish him off. What need had they for such a bankrupt, treasonous Church? Was not God’s favour clearly revealed in their conquest of Moscow?

It was true that the rebels had come further than any peasant rebellions in Russia’s past. Time and again, the unsettled lands of south and southeast would become the bases for major uprisings that would lunge towards Moscow… and sputter out along the way, weakened by internal dissension and crushed by the overwhelming force of government armies. This time was different, though. The government itself had been divided and unsettled. The loyalty of its armies was not assured, as Diebitsch’s episode seemed to prove. And the rebels, for all their bickering, maintained remarkable cohesion. And yet… Taking Moscow was not enough – and the conviction of many of the rebels that it was, in fact, enough, was something of a weakness in its own right. The Alexandrist army’s cohesion weakened, as its warriors were first let loose on the capital, and then allowed to maraud in the countryside to punish it for its rebellion against the Tsar and to get more supplies. As they ranged further to the north and west, they encountered stronger resistance from the local militias that the notables and village elders had been able to put together – to them, this was not a holy army that came to free them from an ungodly, Tsarless government, but a bunch of bandits and marauders that were no better than Tartars or Frenchmen. And the attempts to push beyond Moscow, when they were undertaken, soon revealed that the republicans were far from beaten. While Velyaminov’s own attempt to retake Moscow in early March was forced back, he proved able to retain both Kazan and Vladimir. And in May, Volkonsky arrived from the northwest (Pestel having rightly deemed the Baltic rebellion to be a spent force that could be safely allowed to fester) and Paskevich, who had finally managed to secure reinforcements, moved from the southwest. The rebellion had failed to spread to Little Russia or the Don Cossacks – an accomplishment of Paskevich that his critics overlooked, focusing on his martial record during the southern campaign, though the local liberal governors certainly helped as well. The Ural Cossacks did rise again, but their contribution to the war effort was limited due to a renewed feud with the Bashkirs. Tyufyaev’s militias had managed to keep the Urals factories that could be used to make additional artillery and ammunition out of rebels’ hands – a blow that in Kozlovsky’s view was fatal, though his comrades failed to realise that.

The summer of 1828 proved to be the highest point of the Alexandrist uprising. It had spread as far to the north as the Tver and Smolensk guberniyas, even if its attempts to expand to the west and east have both been pretty much checked. Northern Caucasus and southern Volga were under its undisputed control. The conquered territories were administered by local assemblies – dumas, radas, krugs and everything in between; the Cossack hosts effortlessly reestablished their communal self-governance as soon as they broke loose of central control; the sects were subtle influence in both; and the Tsar had his envoys in most of those self-government institutions as well, though their importance varied greatly. The military struggle continued through the summer. Volkonsky stopped an Alexandrist advance force at Volokolamsk and inflicted a sharp defeat on Nezlobov’s main army in a battle on the river Klyazma. The Cossacks were forced to pull back to Moscow itself, but had one more laugh at Paskevich’s expensive when they repelled his attempt to cut it off from the south at Danilovo. Their pursuit of his forces further south, however, ended in a costly loss near the scenic post-medieval ghost town of Khatun’. The arrival of a new army under Aleksandr Ivanovich Osterman-Tolstoy, the one-armed veteran of the 1812 campaign, from the west, and Veliaminov’s August maneuver to retake Nizhniy Novgorod and cut off the ideal rebel retreat path, appeared to seal the rebellion’s fate strategically. Still, its army, though reeling, was still willing to fight for its gains.

Paskevich’s second campaign in September encountered moderate resistance and led him almost to the gates of Moscow itself before he paused to make camp. Thus he set the stage for the third and final great mystery of the rebellion. According to official sources, Pseudo-Alexander, realising that the jig was up, travelled to the small nearby village of Ochakovo to negotiate the terms of his surrender with Paskevich late in the evening of the 2nd of October. On the way back from the clandestine meeting, however, his own followers turned on him and killed him, wishing to continue the war to the end. Given that in republican circles and pro-Pestel historiography Sokolov and Nezlobov had the reputation of an insane religious fanatic and a callous, bloodthirsty bandit respectively, that was not hard for them to believe. There were other claims though. For instance, some said that Paskevich had him killed on Pestel’s orders; others, that Paskevich had previously negotiated the possibility of joining the rebellion, but after its more recent reverses, took advantage of the meeting to kill the most important witness. Some allege an internal power struggle among the rebels, or even an accidental attack by some bandits or overzealous pro-government militias that roamed around Moscow. And others still claimed that the Tsar was not dead, that he was hidden by the rebels, or that perhaps he simply walked away into the night, disgusted with the actions being done in his name…

Whatever the case, the rebel figurehead was gone. And the chance for negotiations, if it ever existed, was gone too. The rebels still scored one last big victory by sallying out of Moscow before the ring could be closed around it and then beating back Veliaminov’s vanguard in the Battle of Goose River (near where that tributary entered Oka), but afterwards, with Paskevich harrying their retreat and Volkonsky biting at their heels, the Alexandrist army began to disintegrate. In November, they tried to rally and turn the tables on their pursuers, but by now their loss of morale and numerical superiority, augmented by the desertion of many of their conscripts, led to a catastrophic defeat in the Battle of Saratov. Nezlobov and a small detachment of loyal Cossacks were caught and massacred near the village of Proleyka while trying to cross the Volga and continue the fight in the Urals. Kozlovsky and Matveyev tried to continue resistance with their remaining forces in the northern Caucasus, but with the sects having fallen into infighting and with several different imposters throughout Russia now claiming the name of Alexander the Blessed, their efforts were badly disrupted. Astrakhan surrendered early in 1829; Kozlovsky was finally defeated at Chogray, surrendering soon after. Remaining diehards among the Cossacks continued resisting well into 1830, however; and the southern frontier and vast, sparsely populated, poorly controlled eastern expanses of Russia remained a very tricky area for the new government to reclaim for many years to come. But the rebellion had run its course. With Osten-Sacken being pushed beyond the Western Dvina and capitulating before the Prussians could make up their mind on whether or not to intervene, the Republic was secure. What this security meant for both Russia and Europe in the long term remained to be seen.
 
Das you need to get published.
 
OOC: This is rather all over the place, but hopefully not as obscure as the previous segment. :p I'd only welcome questions and criticism at this point.

IC:

Pestel P.I. said:
It proceeds from everything that has been said above that for the correct and positive Establishment of Boundaries one must follow the consideration that the Right of Nationality must predominate for those Peoples that can freely make use of autonomous political independence, while the right of convenience must predominate for those Peoples that cannot [due to their weakness and small size] make use of this autonomous political independence and so must necessarily be under the rule of some stronger State.

Historians, starting with contemporary observers and moving on into the future, would struggle to reach a consensus on the importance of the Alexandrist rebellion. For many, especially early on and especially outside of Russia, it was easy to downplay those events as either the final salvo of the revolution or a painful interlude between Pestel’s assumption of supreme power and the execution of his planned reforms. This denied the rebellion much individual importance, making it look like a doomed and failed attempt to turn back the clock of history that has only succeeded in slowing down and disrupting the inevitable. A somewhat different perspective was initially championed by Faddey Bulgarin, some other Western-minded intellectuals and the survivors of provincial and Moscow aristocracy: they regarded the rebellion as a great tragedy, a new peasant war on par with that of Pugachev, compounded by its bad timing – that it would start just as the new government started to address the grievances of the populace! It was viewed as a tragic inevitability that ravaged many of the core regions of Russia, and that may have become an even greater disaster if not for the decisive actions of Pestel and his supporters that managed to avert this catastrophe. This has been called the great victory of Europe over Asia, civilisation over barbarity and reason over superstition – a claim that the few European observers present tended to take with a grain of salt, especially when aware of the draconian measures used by republican generals to suppress the lingering rural dissent. Nevertheless, and for obvious reasons, a modified version of this view would come to predominate as the official, government viewpoint on the matter for much of the century. A third perspective, to emerge later, was more sympathetic to the rebels; while their ideology was misguided, their grievances were very real, while Pestel’s agrarian policy was still ultimately that of compromise – one that favoured the peasants a lot more than the liberalist program, but woefully inadequate from the standpoint of the rural poor. This view regarded the Alexandrist uprising as an organic part of the revolution that failed because society was not prepared for it, but that nonetheless can be considered a harbinger of future political and social radicalism in the Russian Republic.

Be that as it may, the end of the peasant rebellion also marked the end of the revolution. Pestel’s authority in the core areas of Russia, especially in the north, west and centre of European Russia, was secure, and his actions to protect law and order against rebellion granted him some measure of legitimacy and grudging support among the provincial elites. On the other hand, it’s worth recounting the negative consequences of the rebellion. The south, northern Caucasus, Siberia and the Far East remained very much unsettled, with banditry, diehard Cossack resistance, nomadic raids, agrarian dissent and sectarian subversion continuing to undermine the government’s authority. The entire length of the southern border was effectively in a lawless state, with everything the late Romanovs have done to bring them into order having disappeared with the dynasty. While none of the new pretenders have been able to amass any significant or long-lasting following, the new Alexandrist sects would go on to add to an already confusing hodgepodge of Spiritual Christian sects in the south, continuously subverting the government’s moralist and centralist initiatives. And back in St. Petersburg and other major cities, Pestel had succeeded in alienating everyone on his left, while also burning the bridge to reconciliation with the monarchists by defeating their uprising and expelling the Imperial Family to Tobolsk in Siberia. While the liberalists and some pragmatic conservatives and non-revolutionary liberals remained on his side, this did not bode well for the new Republic’s political pluralism. Then again, Pestel himself was never a huge fan of too great a plurality of opinions, and the conspiracies against him from far left and far right have only confirmed him in his prejudice.

The question of the Republic’s post-revolution political organisation has been repeatedly put off for the future since Pestel’s takeover. With the last obstacle to his overall control of Russia gone, the Provisional Supreme Ruler could no longer continue to dodge this question – even if his original plan called for the Provisional Supreme Government to retain power for ten or fifteen years, it was now clear that such a long period of indecision would be politically hazardous. Although he and a few of his close allies (not including his fellow quintumvirs) had taken the time to refine his older constitutional project, he proved willing to call together a constituent assembly in 1830, perhaps wishing to decrease the appearance of autocratic rule that he had so often been accused of, or perhaps simply making another concession to liberal opinion, similar to the one in which he did not simply have the Imperial Family killed. Despite the assembly being made up of delegates elected from different administrative units based on universal manhood suffrage, Pestel’s detractors would later claim that it was deeply flawed from the start – that far from all the people in the “troubled” or simply distant parts of Russia had a chance to vote; that illiterate peasants were often tricked or coerced by their landlords to elect them or their favoured candidates; and that Pestel made full use of his military to intimidate the delegates into toeing the line. Be it as it may, the assembly ended up accepting Pestel’s constitutional project with a few modifications.

A number of contentious provisions was involved. Trubetskoy and his allies would have preferred to see, if not a constitutional monarchy, then a federal, parliamentary republic. Pestel, however, insisted on a strong, unitary state with a strong executive branch. This did not run into many objections except from the western parts of Russia; intimidated or not, the delegates were also more used to central authority and were easily convinced as to its necessity when faced with numerous internal and external threats. There was no question of autonomy in Finland or the Baltic provinces, and both were to be brought in line with the political institutions in the rest of the Republic. The Cossack Hosts were granted some leeway in the territories they occupied, however – this was both a crucial concession, offered in addition to amnesty in order to make peace with the Cossacks still fighting against the central government from the periphery, and necessary in the light of the need to re-secure the southern frontier. They were allowed to retain their own democratically-elected (but strictly separated by the constitution) peacetime and wartime leaders, and to keep all their lands in common property. Universal manhood suffrage for the elections of regional parliaments and the supreme government was a matter of surprisingly little controversy – while many St. Petersburg republicans would have preferred to restrict it by wealth or literacy, the nation as a whole proved willing to support Pestel’s proposal (which some have taken to validate the view that the delegates, most of whom were of aristocratic origins, supported the provision because the provincial aristocracy believed that illiterate, poor peasants would be more easily coerced to support its interests in the new Republic). The one concession to the liberals’ qualms was that literacy was still required to hold public office.

Despite Pestel’s continued efforts to shore up the Russian Orthodox Church as a national church of the Republic, no confessional requirement was added for holding public office – not solely a self-serving measure, as even after the Revolution Pestel was far from the only Lutheran in Russia’s political class. The Jews and Old Believers, now freed from most of their previous restrictions, could hypothetically take part in public life too, but ones that did so with any measure of success were, for now, far and few in between. In any case, far from all of them greeted the Republic with enthusiasm, considering that the other side of the coin involved forceful Russification measures and attempts to dismantle their preexisting communal institutions and judicial autonomy. Then again, among the Jews there was a fair amount of people who chafed at both the restrictions they faced under the Tsars and the predominance of a few wealthy individuals in aforesaid traditional institutions; to them, the reforms were a welcome break, though one that would only start fully paying off later. Similar restlessness and ambivalence could be found in Finland and the Baltic provinces, encouraged by the maimed landed elites that increasingly looked away from the Romanovs and towards Sweden and the German Confederation respectively.

With regards to the actual political institutions, both Pestel and his critics in the government were agreed on the need of a democratically-elected, representative parliament, but were less agreed on its precise form. Different projects of bicameralism were considered. In the end, it was decided to concentrate the legislative power in the hands of the Narodnoye veche, which the foreigners took to calling either the People’s Parliament or the Veche, whose members would be elected for five years. Parallel to this, the Sobor, sometimes mistranslated as the Senate, was to be elected for life and had the functions of Napoleon’s Sénat conservateur, watching over the proper workings of the government and observance of the Constitution. Executive authority was to be vested in the Supreme Council – Verkhovniy sovet, which was to be elected by the Veche for a five year term. However, in a change from his previous plans, the position of the chairman of the Council was vested in the Perviy sovetnik or First Councillor, who was to retain this position for the entire five year term and who was in effect granted extensive powers, especially during war or in a state of emergency. This could not fail to draw criticism, which Pestel refrained from punishing. The Supreme Council itself was also expanded from five men to seven, which was seen as diluting the power of the other Councillors, but which also lent itself well to their specialisation as de facto ministers or overseers of actual ministers, focusing on different spheres of governance.

Needless to say, when the elections (once again, marred by the disorder and communications breakdown in many parts of Russia) finally took place in 1831, the Veche was dominated by Pestel’s supporters or the undecideds who did not dare to resist them, and the Supreme Council was made up of his allies under his leadership. Kiselyov, Kankrin and Burtsev remained. Trubetskoy left the government, abandoning his hopes of influencing it towards his views for the nonce. He was replaced by Turgenev, Glinka and Aleksandr Sergeyevich Griboyedov, the latter having been charged with rebuilding the diplomatic corps – perhaps the most badly-damaged part of the Imperial state machine after the turmoil of the previous years, given its ties to the court and to the foreign aristocracy. Despite the previous successes, including the one that won him this position, Griboyedov was to have his hands full.

The 1820s proved to be an unexpectedly and disappointingly exciting period of time in Europe. Certainly it was not as eventful as the Napoleonic Era, despite some initial fears – but it was still enough to shake up the balance of power in a way that, though it may have seemed relatively subtle on the map, nonetheless had some serious implications for the future. A new wave of liberalism and nationalism swept through Europe, causing spontaneous and uncoordinated conflagrations of political violence in different corners of the continent. Uncoordinated they may have been, but neither the revolutionaries nor the champions of order saw them as wholly unconnected. One uprising inspired another, and generally was able to secure the sympathy if not the outright support of like-minded dissidents in other kingdoms. Likewise, although different combinations of carrot and stick methods had been applied by different European governments at first, the Holy Alliance, championed by Metternich and Alexander I, had consistently striven to fight against the revolutionary tendencies on a continental level, coordinating their actions and staging interventions against uprisings that seemed likely to prevail. From the start, this policy faced opposition from the United Kingdom. Increasingly more lenient at home, the British were also rather unsympathetic towards the continental Great Powers and their reactionary policies, helping thwart Spain’s attempts to regain control over its New World colonies and also consistently opposing interventions back in Europe.

The greatest failure of the Holy Alliance’s policies before 1826 was in Greece. The Greek uprising against the Ottoman Empire that started in 1821 and then dragged on for just under a decade was definitely an example of revolutionary activity and was poorly received by all the important governments in Europe – even, initially, that of the United Kingdom. But it put the Great Powers in an awkward position. Greece was remote, and its geography would’ve made the rebels hard to suppress. What’s more, between pan-Christian sympathy and Philhellenism, the Greek cause inspired a great deal of sympathy among the European public. If anything, of course, it made the uprising all the more dangerous – the volunteers and backers that rushed to the rebels’ assistance were bound to spread a bad example and encourage similar rebellions elsewhere, especially in Italy and Russia. But it also made both intervention and simple inaction similarly risky, as it pitted the governments directly against what increasingly seemed like a popular and heroic cause. And then there was the British factor – after the early concerns about the integrity of the Ottoman Empire had subsided, Canning, the new Foreign Secretary, began to vocally and proactively support the Greeks, pushing for the Great Powers to act in concert to force the Ottoman Empire to let go of the province – an increasingly plausible possibility in their state of indecision, despite Metternich’s opposition and Alexander’s reluctance.

All those calculations were overturned by the Russian Revolution of 1826. While at first it seemed to be a greater blow to Metternich, the wily Austrian chancellor soon managed to recover from it, as described before – this was done by strengthening his bonds with France and Prussia, and focusing on preserving the monarchic order west of the Russian and Turkish borders. British foreign policy, meanwhile, was in shambles – unwilling to approach the radical Russian republicans, outplayed by Metternich elsewhere in Europe and increasingly troubled by the death of many of its key members, the Tory government had lost all influence it may have had over the situation on the mainland, only starting to recover its footing after 1828 when reformed under the Duke of Wellington. This applied not only to Greece – now thrown to the wolves – but also to Poland’s March Republic, whose moderate leaders had hoped to secure British backing and mediation. Things had in fact worked out very well for Metternich – with Britain paralyzed and Russia too distracted by internal turmoil, his bid to focus on suppressing Poland and dissent in the remaining Holy Alliance countries had apparently payed off, while the Greek insurgents were slowly but surely being pounded into oblivion by the Turkish and Egyptian forces, effectively taking care of the problem as far as he was concerned. While later blasted as short-sighted, the draconian new laws introduced in France had helped the Ultras maintain control – despite some very precarious moments during 1828 and 1829 when a series of uprisings had to be suppressed in Paris, Lyon and other major French cities. French forces also played a key part in suppressing rebellions in Italy and Belgium. In Germany, which also faced a lesser wave of dissent throughout this time (partly inspired by sympathy towards the Poles), Metternich had judged it more prudent to use Austrian forces against the uprisings.

Defeating Poland while the international situation remained favourable nonetheless remained a chief priority for the Holy Alliance. While the March Republic managed to muster a surprising amount of martial competence under Michał Gedeon Radziwiłł, having both a fairly experienced regular army and a large patriotic militia, the military outcome of the campaign was never truly in doubt after the failure of Adam Jerzy Czartoryski’s diplomatic offensive. With much of the Austrian forces tied up keeping the peace in the German Confederation, Prussia took the lead in attacking the March Republic in the spring of 1827. Under the command of Gneiseneu and Clausewitz, the Prussians managed to push through towards Warsaw despite stiff resistance, scoring a number of close-ran victories against the Poles, but failing to rout their army. The Austrians struck from the south later in the same year, with rather less success, but still accomplishing Metternich’s immediate goal of preventing an uprising in Galicia and securing Krakow (up to then a free city). In 1828, Czartoryski made one more bid for peace, trying to persuade the Austrians to let Poland survive as a free kingdom, perhaps under a Wettin or a Hapsburg. While the damaging partisan activities behind their lines may have made this offer tempting to the German commanders, Metternich rejected it out of hand (and neither Francis I nor Frederick William III saw any merit in disagreeing). After all, even an autonomous Poland under the Russian Empire proved very easily subverted by rebellious nationalists – and an independent Poland, no matter how dependable its government, would also inspire nationalist sentiment in Prussia’s and Austria’s own Polish territories.

This may have been a moot point anyway, as Czartoryski and Radziwiłł were increasingly forced to give in to radical pressure lest they be overthrown and their rebellion collapse into factionalism, as had happened in Greece. A series of concessions culminating in formal recognition for some of the more politically unsavoury partisan and militia commanders and the promise of abolition of serfdom at once prolonged the rebellion and sealed its fate, burning whatever bridges may have still existed. While peasants and the urban poor now fought with for the Republic with renewed enthusiasm, the more conservative-minded aristocrats increasingly started to defect and support the invaders. The fighting continued throughout 1828, and despite some success in starting an uprising back in Prussia, the Poles soon suffered a decisive defeat at Błonie, followed by a costly, but ultimately successful Austro-Prussian assault on Warsaw in September. While the civil government surrendered at this point, accepting exile or retirement somewhere far from Poland, the military and the radicals made an effort to fight on from Bialystok, seized from the Russian chaos at the beginning of the revolt. Antoni Jabłonowski actually had his day in the sun, forming a new, more radical government there. Ultimately, though, it was all for naught – Poland was not nearly as frustrating to fight in as Greece, the armies fighting against it were a good deal more organised, and the spirit of centralised resistance had been broken with the fall of Warsaw. By 1829, Poland was occupied, even as rebellions continued to rage behind the lines. It was soon decided to redivide it along the lines of the Third Partition of Poland, except for Prussia gaining more of the territory between the Vistula and the Bug, granting Austria a smoother northern border and fewer Poles to worry about. The cholera epidemic that spread in from Russia next year effectively dealt the killing blow to this decentralised resistance, although it took its terrible toll on the invading forces and their homelands as well.

In the meantime, the Greek rebellion was also starting to wind down. As official Western assistance failed to materialise and the unofficial help began to run out of steam (and into trouble with their own authorities courtesy of Metternich), the scattered Greek forces were put decisively on the defensive. Despite the Turks bearing down on them from the north and the Egyptians landing on the Peloponnesian peninsula, the rebels actually performed exceedingly well in delaying their advance on the land, making their enemies pay in blood for every valley they retook. Nonetheless, the rebellion’s cohesion was pretty much gone by 1828; between the fall of Athens and Missolonghi and the complete naval superiority of the Egyptian fleet, the Greeks were reduced to a few pockets of fierce, but isolated resistance that were to be systematically reduced over the next several months. And, of course, the Ottomans and the Egyptians were by this point only too happy to carry out bloody reprisals, often to the extent of localised ethnic cleansing.

It was only in 1829 that the Greeks were unexpectedly saved from what may well have been their extermination as a people in their native land. Their true saviour was a partial shift in political conjecture; it was personified, however, by rather unlikely and reluctant mortal statesmen. While Wellington and his government were, by basic inclination, a good deal more leery of supporting radicals and rebels than their predecessors, they were also operating in a somewhat less paranoid political climate. For all the distaste that they still felt towards the Russian Republic, they could not help but see that Pestel was neither a Robespierre nor a Napoleon – at least, not yet. In fact, he seemed like someone they could deal with, rather like Latin American republican leaders. The parallel was if anything only strengthened by the fact that a formal recognition of the new Russian government both frustrated the Holy Alliance (while also allaying fears of diplomatic isolation on the continent) and served Britain’s economic interests. Indeed, while the volume of Russian-British trade fell considerably since the beginning of political turmoil in Russia, further shifting the United Kingdom’s commercial priorities towards the New World, the significance of the trade remained high – especially given the need for the two economies to recover, Russia’s from civil war and Britain’s from financial crisis. It was here that Griboyedov, returning to his diplomatic career under a new regime, was first able to shine – working out an agreement through intermediaries for Britain to recognise Pestel’s government and sign a trade agreement, helping normalise the relations between the two and granting Britain most favoured nation status in the Republic. Metternich was obviously none too pleased by Russia gaining official recognition from one of the Great Powers, but what worried him even more was what the treaty left unsaid. Even though openly collaborating with a Republic to thwart Austria was a bit too much for Wellington, the creation of a certain London-St. Petersburg axis allowed the two great outsiders of European politics to team up to apply pressure on the Ottoman Empire. British public opinion, after all, still demanded some kind of action to support the Greeks – while its governing classes found that in the face of Russia’s weakness and the Ottoman Empire’s apparent revitalisation, supporting the latter was no longer anywhere near as obvious a policy, especially in the light of Austria’s growing influence in Constantinople.

Seeing the phantom of Canning return to imperil peace in South-Eastern Europe once more, Metternich realised that swift and audacious action was necessary. As the British resumed making threatening noises, Metternich called together a new conference in Zagreb (obviously the Russians were not invited, while an Ottoman representative was, though not as a proper member of the conference) and surprised everyone by pledging himself to the cause of – not the liberation of Greece, but the end of bloodshed in the Balkans. Feeling betrayed by this rather equivocal statement, but nonetheless unwilling to risk a confrontation with both Austria and Britain, the Ottomans accepted Metternich’s mediation. Greece received autonomy along Serbian lines in a relatively small territory south of Thessaly, under the leadership of Theodoros Kolokotronis, one of the last unbowed Greek commanders. Crete and Cyprus passed to Muhammed Ali of Egypt, as per the previous agreement. Also, Wallachia and Moldavia received certain assurances of resumed autonomy, effectively passing under a joint Austro-Turkish protectorate, the local divans/i] being allowed to elect rulers from among their native nobility, replacing the Phanariot rule of the previous century. It was undoubtedly very awkward for Metternich (or, to a lesser extent, Emperor Francis) to pose as a defender of Balkan Christians, even more so considering that they were overwhelmingly Orthodox and quite rebellious. But the alternative was worse – the unholy alliance of Church and Republic in Russia seemed bound to inspire revolutionary sentiment in Turkey-in-Europe. As indeed it had – but Metternich’s hope was that this tendency could at least be somewhat deflated by Austrian diplomacy actively striving to defuse conflicts, supporting the Ottoman Empire as such while also keeping it from provoking a general rebellion.

It is unclear whether Mahmud II was feeling very grateful about Metternich’s intervention, even though in the end it did seem to benefit the Ottomans. Indeed, even though he was forced to back down from crushing the rebels entirely, the Sultan was still left in what at first appeared to be a far improved position at the end of the 1820s. The Greek rebellion was effectively defeated, having only won symbolic concessions and a devastated country. Even more importantly, the Russian threat that hanged like the Sword of Damocles since Catherine’s time was at least temporarily neutralised. This freed the Sultan up to carry out extensive reforms. Back in 1826, when the revolution in Russia was only just beginning, Mahmud II had crushed the Janissary Corps – perhaps, some speculate, alarmed by how easily the Imperial Guard ended up trying to play kingmaker in the Ottoman Empire’s northern neighbour. He suppressed the provincial Janissary uprisings and crushed the autonomy and privileges of most regional elites, culminating in the abolition of the timar system of land-holding throughout the Empire in 1830. In its place, a new, more modern and loyal army was created – with assistance from Prussia, Austria and France, which provided it with weapons, advisors and training. After this reform was completed, it seemed that Turkey was very much on the rebound, despite the lingering unrest in the Balkans and the growing hostility of Britain.

However, Mahmud II was all too aware of a different and in his mind much more critical threat developing at the south of his empire. Muhammed Ali, the governor and self-declared Khedive (viceroy) of Egypt, was a loyal subject in name, but an ambitious independent ruler in deed. Much like Mahmud, Muhammed Ali was also keen on modernising his corner of the Ottoman Empire and crushing the entrenched opposition of the old elite; unlike Mahmud, Muhammed Ali had a significant head start. At the cost of high taxation and conscription of the population for public works, industrial projects and military adventures, Muhammed Ali transformed Egypt into a prominent regional power in its own right, not held back by internal weaknesses and actively expanding outwards. Not only was the Sublime Porte powerless to bring him to heel, but it was forced to rely on his assistance upon running into trouble with the Greeks. Despite taking many casualties, the Egyptians walked away from the Greek campaign victorious, claiming Crete and Cyprus as their trophies. The alliance between Constantinople and Cairo almost immediately began to deteriorate after this. Muhammed Ali worked to expand his influence into Greater Syria, subverting Ottoman authority in the region in the process. In the meantime, the Ottomans, alarmed by their supposed vassal’s powerful fleet, began an effort to modernise and build up their own navy under French supervision. This led to an arms race between the two, with Egypt being increasingly supported by Britain even as the Holy Alliance backed the Turks. This was a profound change from their earlier attitude towards the Albanian upstart; though it should be noted that their earlier antagonism did not disappear overnight, the British being particularly displeased by the Khedive’s economical protectionism and the Khedive in turn being wary of their efforts to subvert his rule.
 
By the beginning of the 1830s, therefore, the battle-lines had been drawn – but the confrontation was delayed. The 1830s were, on the whole, a quieter time. In Europe, it seemed that Metternich and his allies had weathered the storm. Charles X, despite retaining some pretences of constitutionalism, effectively established rule by decree, assisted by a freshly reorganised secret police (ironically, just like Pestel learned from Fouche, the French were now learning from both Metternich and Pestel). He went through a number of prime ministers after a falling out with Jean-Baptiste de Villèle – Jules de Polignac oversaw the entrenchment of the new regime, but was later replaced by the cynical Francois de la Bourdonnaye, under whom the harsh controls were loosened somewhat, while the monarchy also strove to raise its prestige with the conquest of Algeria – a genuinely popular adventure. In the meantime, finances were stabilised and industrial growth encouraged, doubtless also contributing to a certain weary social peace. The sudden death of Charles X in 1834 put a sudden end to de la Bourdonnaye’s regime, despite his successful efforts to secure a general amnesty for political prisoners on the occasion of Louis XIX’s ascension to the throne. While a radical attempt to repeat the St. Petersburg scenario by staging an anti-monarchist uprising in Paris failed to get off the ground, an unlikely coalition of moderate statesmen and military officers fed up with the rule of reactionary cabinets and de la Bourdonnaye’s perceived corruption soon managed to stage a mini-putsch, persuading Louis XIX to restore the parliament (if in a rather weakened form), reaffirm the Charter and remove de la Bourdonnaye from power, restoring the government of François-René de Chateaubriand. Despite Metternich’s initial panic, however, the new regime proved to be little other than a partial loosening and liberalisation of the previous one. Both Chateaubriand and Louis XIX proved all too willing to support the Holy Alliance abroad, even as they engaged in repealing some of the more odious legislation of the previous reign at home. While Vienna was not too thrilled with the restoration of free press, it had come to appreciate the new French regime as an altogether less precarious one. Franco-Austrian cooperation proved key to suppressing new uprisings in the Netherlands and Italy, in spite of British meddling.

An altogether more complicated situation emerged in the Iberian Peninsula. Since the early 1820s, Portugal was in a state of chronic constitutional and dynastic crisis, as liberal and absolutist factions strove for power and supported rival claimants to the throne. The conflict escalated further with John VI’s death in 1826. Dom Pedro, already the first emperor of independent Brazil, briefly inherited the Portuguese throne as well as Peter IV, only to abdicate in the favour of his daughter Maria II two years later. While both Pedro and Maria were aligned with the liberals, Miguel, John VI’s other son and the putative regent for seven-year-old Maria, was firmly in the reactionary camp – and a personal friend of Metternich to boot. With the help of reactionary military and aristocratic elements, Miguel seized power as Michael I. The Holy Alliance and Spain were quick to support him, but in Portugal itself opinion was split, as the king was soon forced to fight off several liberal uprisings loyal to Maria and the constitution. The British, annoyed by his mistreatment of their subjects during his efforts to suppress the opposition, provided support to the rebels and refused to recognise Michael, instead supporting the liberal government that fled to the Azores. While the initial French and Spanish intervention ensured the decisive defeat of the rebellion in mainland Portugal, events took a new turn when Ferdinand VII of Spain, a reliable client of the Holy Alliance, died in 1833. In preparation for this moment, he had the Cortes change the succession law to allow his three-year-old daughter Isabella to succeed (perhaps in a bid to outdo the Portuguese in terms of underage female rulers), under the regency of his last wife, Maria Christina. The previous heir presumptive, Don Carlos, was understandably displeased. As the reactionary and regionalist elements (especially Basque and Catalonian) rallied around him, Maria Christina found herself siding – however reluctantly – with the liberals and the centralisers. The liberal takeover of Spain was rapid; soon, a conservative constitution was accepted and the Spanish army left Portugal. Louis de Bourmont, the French commander in Portugal, soon also found himself in an awkward situation – cut off from home and from supplies, and coincidentally, unable to block the moderate military conspiracy back home.

The Holy Alliance’s reaction was delayed by a number of factors. The power struggle in France, though it was kept from getting out of hand, was definitely one of them. But the apparent strength – and legitimacy – of Isabella’s cause had also complicated matters. Invading Spain to overthrow a legitimate ruler while facing the opposition of both liberals and conservatives short of Don Carlos himself was not something that either Metternich or Chateaubriand was willing to do lightly. Britain’s prompt recognition of the new government did not help matters.

Carlos, in any case, did not wait for official support from abroad. His rebellion soon spread throughout the country. His main strongholds were in the north and north-east, but lesser uprisings started in the south and centre as well. Reactionaries and ethnic separatists alike rallied to his banner – and so did sympathetic adventurers from abroad, especially from France. Likewise, though, the liberals were supported by local volunteers, revolutionary-minded militias and British adventurers – often with London’s tacit endorsement. Tomás de Zumalacárregui, a Basque commander of pronounced Royalist sympathies and remarkable talent, soon became the leading commander of the Carlist cause, forging a remarkably strong army in the north out of disparate volunteers, Basque militias and prisoners from the opposing forces. While he performed exceedingly well in defeating the liberals in Navarre and its vicinity, he was held back by Carlos and his court insisting on waiting for the Holy Alliance’s support. A decisive development came elsewhere in 1835, when the Portuguese government – already the first to acknowledge Carlos – officially intervened on his behalf. The Portuguese by themselves may not have meant much, especially considering how unreliable many of their troops and officers were; but in addition to this, de Bourmont decided to not wait for orders and lend assistance to the Carlist cause in person. Joined by a smaller local Carlist force, the tripartite army crushed the liberal forces in the Battle of Aznalcazar, moving on to secure much of Andalusia. While the French government was none too happy with this show of initiative, the victory proved decisive in showing that the Carlists had a real chance to win – and also, cutting off the liberals from promised British support in the south. France, Prussia and Austria recognized Don Carlos, and starting with 1836 another French army invaded from the north, occupying Catalonia. His flanks secure, Zumalacárregui was free to move on Madrid, his ranks swelling as he and Don Carlos moved on.

While the liberals and their supporters put up a bitter fight, their ranks were weakened by internal infighting – and the help that Britain was willing and able to provide, at least on an official level, shrank quickly. The public was not willing to support another Peninsular War, with the rest of Europe west of Russia on the French side – and ultimately, neither was the cabinet. British protests about French and Portuguese involvement and the mistreatment of British subjects caught up in the war were ultimately ineffectual when running into the stone wall of Metternich’s alliance system. Embittered, the British backed away to focus on other matters; but the Peninsular Crisis still had the significant effect of injuring the island kingdom’s pride and spurring it further towards closer relations with the United States and Russia. As for Spain, the liberals were finally defeated in 1838, allowing Don Carlos to come to power as Charles V of Spain while Maria Christina and her daughter ended up fleeing to Britain. The old succession laws, regional autonomy and privileges and the Inquisition were all restored (though the significance of the latter event was grossly overstated). The Portuguese government in the Azores was dislodged in the next year and fled to Brazil, where Pedro remained engaged in his own bitter struggle with local separatists.

Despite those political setbacks in continental Europe, Britain continued to thrive elsewhere. Under William IV, who came to power in 1830, the Whigs temporarily prevailed in the House of Commons, with their leader, Charles Gray, forming a new government. Vigorous reforms at home (including the abolition of slavery throughout the British Empire, the removal of the British East India Company’s trade monopolies and a series of parliamentary reforms to extend voting rights and redraw voting districts to liquidate rotten boroughs) was combined with an active foreign policy carried out by Viscount Palmerstone – perhaps too active for his and the government’s own good. Palmerstone proved a lot more willing to cooperate with Russia and to support liberal and revolutionary forces on the continent – as seen above. His policies outside of Europe had mixed results. As a committed imperialist and free trader, Palmerstone could not help but chafe at the restrictions that British commerce ran into in Egypt, Turkey and China; still, even as he antagonised the latter two, he continued to work closely with the former, winning some limited concessions in exchange for providing Muhammed Ali with decisive assistance in building up his modern navy, ensuring Egypt’s status as the dominant naval power of the Eastern Mediterranean. He also secured the purchase of Russian America in 1836 – unlike some of their colleagues, Pestel and Kankrin valued Alaska much less than they did good relations with Britain and additional funding for continued reforms.

That was to be his last success for now, however, as the Peninsular Crisis succeeded in driving Charles Gray into retirement and the Parliament into a reelection. The Tories, revitalised under Robert Peel’s leadership (and now increasingly referred to as the Conservatives), managed to form the government with Peel as Prime Minister and the Duke of Wellington as Foreign Secretary. More moderate reforms continued, despite the Whigs teaming up with the Irish Radicals to undermine them when possible. The foreign policy was also scaled back somewhat, but the closer ties with Russia and Egypt remained. Tensions with China over the opium trade continued, but the new government was not in a hurry to force the issue. Partly this was due to being somewhat preoccupied with the nationalistic and dictatorial aspirations of some of the Latin American leaders at the time, particularly de Rosas in Argentina and Santa Anna in Mexico (the latter having fortified his regime after defeating a series of separatist uprisings). The death of William IV and the ascension of Queen Victoria in 1839, followed by the return of the Whigs to power under John Russell, had put an end to this relatively quiet period – but by then, new events were already afoot.

Returning to Russia, it must be noted that the first period of Pestel’s constitutional government was likewise rather quiet – largely because most people wanted it that way. With the monarchist cause in retreat, the threat posed by the Holy Alliance and aristocratic conspirators likewise receded – though it was not until 1836 that France recognised the new government, while the rest of the Holy Alliance stubbornly refused to recognise it even later. The land reforms continued apace, helping pacify the countryside somewhat, even though the state of the peasantry post-reform was still much worse than was hoped and somewhat worse than was reported. Renewed trade with Britain greatly assisted in revitalising the economy. In the south, military campaigns against lingering rebel and bandit presences continued throughout the decade – Pestel prioritised the economic recovery of the region, believing that – after an efficient and dispersed secret police and a powerful military – it was a key priority in restoring Russia as a Great Power. The military also had to be reorganised, both to deal with its growing discipline problems and as an aftermath of a brief radical conspiracy in 1835 that was duly unmasked by the Prikaz. While on the whole Pestel continued to rule with an iron fist in a velvet glove, even permitting a certain liberalisation of the judicial and penal systems during the extensive legal reforms of this time, the political repressions nonetheless steadily became more common. Foreign missionaries were expelled and a variety of political clubs were shut down, as were all attempts to organise formal political parties; likewise, the Freemasons, though permitted after the Revolution, were once again forbidden in 1835 and driven underground. The censorship in Russia was ironically far stricter than that in France under Louis XIX. Actual arrests and exiles remained fairly rare, however. Griboyedov carried out a series of negotiations that resulted in a new agreement with Qajar Persia and the Imamate; the latter was allowed to control Chechnya and Northern Dagestan as a buffer state, while Aizerbadjan, southern Dagestan, Armenia and eastern Georgia were recognised as Persian territory. Russia was, however, acknowledged as a protector of Christians under Persian rule – a concession that was only meaningful inasmuch as the Persians were willing to While neither Pestel nor Griboyedov (who had personal connections in Tiflis) were particularly thrilled with this agreement, they saw it as vital to both stabilising trade in the south and forging a new anti-Ottoman alliance. In addition to Shah Abbas IV (as Abbas Mirza was officially called since 1834), the Russians reached out to Muhammed Ali; while they had relatively little to offer him compared to the British at the moment, the Khedive nonetheless fully understood the utility of encircling the Ottomans.

The election of 1836 (altogether more well-organised and representative than the first one) did not fundamentally upset the political order. If anything, its new composition was rather more conservative; but it was easily persuaded to allow Pestel’s government to remain in power and continue its policies, especially inasmuch as Pestel’s supporters had managed to make him seem at once a bulwark against the threat of radicalism (by now largely extinguished, at least from the left) and a defender of Russian interests against Muslims and Catholics of all stripes. The old liberalism, as per Trubetskoy’s lament, was in decline, despite the lingering British influences in St. Petersburg; nationalistic and patriotic sentiments, however, were on the rise, and the government was only too happy to play towards them. Establishing a new Russian, Orthodox, national education was deemed a key priority, especially in areas that were less than perfectly Russian or Orthodox; also, a new bout of Church reforms was carried out, mostly aimed at housecleaning and weeding out corruption, but also involving the further weakening of monastic elements and the state-sponsored translation of the Bible to Russian (although Church Slavonic liturgy was for now left intact). Such reforms annoyed both freethinkers and traditionalists, the latter accusing Pestel of trying to stealthily “Lutheranise” the Russian Church; however, they encountered support from a considerable part of the white clergy and the urban middle class. The government also paid a great deal of attention to trying to keep up with the technological developments in the West. A mix of overall protectionism and specific concessions, coupled with a surfeit of cheap labour, allowed for the Industrial Revolution to come to Russia – or, rather, to a few specific clusters in its European part. Likewise, the earlier efforts at reducing internal economic restrictions to a minimum led to a boom in private enterprise – still rather threadbare by British or American standards, but nonetheless impressive. The flipside of this was the undeniable growth of socio-economic differentiation and impoverishment of a large part of peasantry, despite Pestel’s efforts to avert it by supporting the communal landholding institutions. Local corruption and a variety of natural factors severely undermined the efficiency of those policies – and in any case, an increasing amount of peasants saw their future in the factories, the cities or, increasingly, the army.

The military reforms continued throughout the decade. The navy was rebuilt and modernised, not without British help; its ranks included steam frigates, though those were still very much a new and experimental kind of vessel. The main focus of Pestel’s government, however, was the army. While its size was for a time sharply reduced after the revolution, the 1830s saw a steady and extensive buildup, motivated only partly by the need to control the southern border. Continuing to rely on conscription for its soldiers was semi-jokingly called by some the most efficient form of government poverty relief in Russia, while officer academies continued to attract the scions of formerly aristocratic families, eager to compensate their relative loss of status with military accomplishments. A new charter of military regulations was issued, with the aim of both bolstering discipline and imparting standard tactics and doctrine; it was based on a combination of French Revolutionary thinking and the teachings of Suvorov, strongly emphasising the offensive. Corporal punishments were considerably reduced, though not yet abolished outright. Efforts at further technological innovation were also made, though for now they did not bear that much fruit. Neither Kiselyov nor Pestel nor anyone else in Europe could have anticipated how soon the effectiveness of those reforms would be tested.
 
Das you should add in pictures
 
The genetic opposite of color-blindness.

I like this last installment; it actually has interesting applications as preparation for Crezth's NES in the later stages. :p

I find it interesting that Pestel has kept the Romanovs in exile rather than simply killing them off as Lenin did, and I can't help think that his lack of ruthlessness may come to bite him later on.
 
I find it interesting that Pestel has kept the Romanovs in exile rather than simply killing them off as Lenin did, and I can't help think that his lack of ruthlessness may come to bite him later on.
all hail her imperial highness marya vladimirovna romanova, empress and autocrat of all the russias

oh wait

i will have a more coherent take on this once my workload slows down a bit
 
I find it interesting that Pestel has kept the Romanovs in exile rather than simply killing them off as Lenin did, and I can't help think that his lack of ruthlessness may come to bite him later on.

It might. At the time the main considerations were that he did not want to bait the conservative nobles that made common cause with him more than absolutely necessary and to avoid burning bridges with Britain. The importance of keeping Constantine, etc. alive to both those causes might be somewhat debatable, but every little bit helped. At the same time, after the initial crisis had passed, putting the Imperial Family in Tobolsk seemed fairly safe. Obviously they would be kept under strict surveillance in their exile. Still, it's definitely something that might backfire in the future if the political climate changes.

It's worth noting that he couldn't kill all the Romanovs even if he wanted to, since a large part of them ended up in Berlin, and later in Vienna. :p If he could end them in one stroke, that may well have seemed to be a preferable option. As it is, holding one part of the family hostage may well be thought of as a measure to give the other part some pause.
 
I now think I may have erred in not giving Shah Abbas IV a bigger write-up, as that may have made things more exciting. But I'm sure I'll have more time for that later. Still, Turkey, Persia and Egypt are all in the hands of pragmatic, energetic, reformist rulers. A shame the Near East is probably too small for the three of them.
 
Sorry, I found myself in the middle of this. Where does it start?
 
I assume THIS althist doesn't begin in page 1 and, quite frankly, I have no idea how many pages back I should go. If only you'd be so kind... forget it, I don't think you would be.
 
I like to be helpful, when the question isn't just silly. To answer it would necessitate someone else doing the exact amount of work you would have to do to simply find it. Tldr; a few pages back.

Advanced pro-tip: Use the thread search for something like 'Pestel' or 'Russia' and look for the earliest likely das post on the topic. Seriously Joan. This is baby stuff.
 
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