COVID-19 virus thread (formerly Wuhan coronavirus)

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Much as many Remainers wish to see him as an evil Rasputin
figure, I think he has little influence outside of the Brexit matter.

In case you have not noticed Boris Johnson is taking advice
from the Chief Scientific Officer and medics etc re Covid 19.

This is the same Government advisor who was glib enough to remark that perhaps old people dying was a price worth paying
 
Much as many Remainers wish to see him as an evil Rasputin
figure, I think he has little influence outside of the Brexit matter.
I don't see him as anything more than he is, but I don't excuse what power he does exercise. You can Google the relevant events this month that are central to both him and government policy, if you'd like. It's funny that you don't "think" he has much influence (as Chief Advisor to the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom), but unfortunately for you recorded events contradict that.
 
For some reason I thought the lockdown had started sooner, around March 1 or 2 instead of March 9 when it actually occurred. I found an article showing cases in Lodi (locked down Feb 24) vs Bergamo (no lockdown until Mar 9), In Lodi, the lockdown seems to have reduced R0 to approximately 1, with linear growth instead of exponential growth since then. That's good, but they're really going to have to get to substantially less than 1 for this to subside in a reasonable amount of time, as will everyone else of course. The more restrictive lockdown recently imposed in Lombardy might help bring R0 enough below 1 though. I do expect at least a reduction in the rate of new case detection in the next week but I don't know that the prevention of disease spread in Europe or the US is going to be anywhere near as effective as in most of East Asia, at least until the number of cases is far higher still.

Europe needs to scale up production of masks and have everyone using one during social interactions, to avoid spread by diagnoses people. It'd does not have to be a fancy mask to filter out supersized particles, only enough to prevent droplets being spread: well within the production capability of regular textile industries. That should help get R0 down. In several east asian countries use of face masks became a social norm when one suspects disease, I suspect it has a lot to do with their success in containing this. I'm saying Europe because it's where I've been watching foot-dragging on this, but it applies to other places where this problem is starting.
And to really get rid of this, split the problem and deal with clearing it in each region. Otherwise cross-region infections from other places still not cleared will prevent getting back to semi-normal life. I've given up on trying to influence public policy here, did what I could and will from now on stay safely away from this mess. The border control issue was simply too hard to push in time, people really liked open borders. Now there's awareness of it building up but it was so slow, dammit.
 
Those advisors were saying, and Boris was believing, that 70% of the population should get infected! The "herd immunity" thing was government policy, until it wasn't. It was incompetents advising fools.

Do we have a little more context on this? One could say that fully 100% of the population should be infected with the measles. They're called vaccinations. And the fact is, if we fast-forward to the point where 70% of the population has been exposed (and has thus built some degree of immunity), it's possible that that removes critical mass, where pandemic-level community transmission no longer occurs on a wide scale. Say what you will about the road to get there, but....
 
Trump got accused of Xenophobia when stopped Chinese traveller's.

It's about the only thing he did right.

Both ideologies are going to get kicked in the face (neo liberal economics, liberals in general).
 
Do we have a little more context on this? One could say that fully 100% of the population should be infected with the measles. They're called vaccinations. And the fact is, if we fast-forward to the point where 70% of the population has been exposed (and has thus built some degree of immunity), it's possible that that removes critical mass, where pandemic-level community transmission no longer occurs on a wide scale. Say what you will about the road to get there, but....
This is a no-vaccine herd immunity. Which means it's basically "survival of the fittest". Say what you will about the road to get there, but that's just eugenics.
 
This is the same Government advisor who was glib enough to remark that perhaps old people dying was a price worth paying

This is so hard, since I work so hard to see things mathematically. I've been begging people here for years to reduce their leisure activities so that we could help slow the death rate of old people. I'm usually brushed off. Often told the cost isn't worth it.

But now suddenly, everyone is willing to. And if we start worrying about the net cost of doing so, the anger about analysing such things gets us yelled at.
 
If the R0 is 20, you need 95% vaccinated people to get an effective R of 1.0
(100% - 95%) * 20 = 1.0
With the R0 of measles somewhere 15-18, 95% is just enough to get a R slightly lower than 1.0

Covid has a R0 of approx 3-4 (not precisely established yet)
For an effective steady state R of 1.0
At R0 of 3 the vaccinated herd needs to be 67%
At 4 the vaccinated herd needs to be 75%
 
This is a no-vaccine herd immunity. Which means it's basically "survival of the fittest". Say what you will about the road to get there, but that's just eugenics.

We might have to do that anyway. We can't lock down for more than a few months.

As I said earlier we might have to go back to the 1930s just to function. State intervention in the economy, women getting drummed out of non essential jobs etc.
 
Trump got accused of Xenophobia when stopped Chinese traveller's.

It's about the only thing he did right.
Actaully he was being xenophobic on two fronts:
a) he still insists it's about ‘Chinese’ which sounds almost the same as my criticisms of the mishandling of the crisis by the Chinese, except that I mean the government and he just means any yellow-skinned slit-eyed people form Over There,
b) he banned travel from China and from Europe minus the UK which was, as was posted one or two pages ago, proceeding with a strategy of infecting as amny people as possible.

Insult and injury, 2 in 1.
 
Actaully he was being xenophobic on two fronts:
a) he still insists it's about ‘Chinese’ which sounds almost the same as my criticisms of the mishandling of the crisis by the Chinese, except that I mean the government and he just means any yellow-skinned slit-eyed people form Over There,
b) he banned travel from China and from Europe minus the UK which was, as was posted one or two pages ago, proceeding with a strategy of infecting as amny people as possible.

Insult and injury, 2 in 1.

Our government banned Chinese travel Feb 2. Language was a bit more polite.
 
A random anecdote from Ireland is that newly confirmed cases are reporting fewer contacts when they speak to the contact tracking people - the isolation message is getting through somewhat.

There are still plenty of geniuses ignoring it too though.
 
Negotiations over an economic stimulus package seemed to have stalled. The Democrats were able to expand unemployment benefits which the Republicans fought them on, but have been unable to include restrictions on future stock buy-backs for companies now about to receive bailouts. The Republicans strategy it seems has been focused on placing as many limits on assistance to individuals that they can while removing said limits for businesses. I wish that was hyperbolic caricaturing but that really seems to be the crux of the disagreement on the aid package. Everyone recognizes it has to be huge, bipartisan and executed quickly. The GOP seems ready to die on the hill of corporate socialism.
 
because our regular textile industries were closed down long ago, in favour of cheaper imports.

Was done here also, ironically EU-fomented austerity arrested the process before it completely wiped out the industry, as it crushed wages and make it "economical" to keep producing here. I heard that factories have already started to produce these simpler but still useful masks. But it may be hard to persuade people to wear them systematically I think.

Negotiations over an economic stimulus package seemed to have stalled. The Democrats were able to expand unemployment benefits which the Republicans fought them on, but have been unable to include restrictions on future stock buy-backs for companies now about to receive bailouts. The Republicans strategy it seems has been focused on placing as many limits on assistance to individuals that they can while removing said limits for businesses. I wish that was hyperbolic caricaturing but that really seems to be the crux of the disagreement on the aid package. Everyone recognizes it has to be huge, bipartisan and executed quickly. The GOP seems ready to die on the hill of corporate socialism.

A virus on them... :rolleyes: edit: apparently there's one less vote already due to it?
 
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Sen Rand Paul tested positive.
So they'll close down the Senate then? Will Mitch McConnell declare himself to be the Senate?
There are still plenty of geniuses ignoring it too though.
A bus came in all the way from Brazil. The driver and passengers wanted to avoid being isolated so they just changed the sign that, as mandated by law, announces origin and destination, and four of them have been arrested.
 
Negotiations over an economic stimulus package seemed to have stalled. The Democrats were able to expand unemployment benefits which the Republicans fought them on, but have been unable to include restrictions on future stock buy-backs for companies now about to receive bailouts. The Republicans strategy it seems has been focused on placing as many limits on assistance to individuals that they can while removing said limits for businesses. I wish that was hyperbolic caricaturing but that really seems to be the crux of the disagreement on the aid package. Everyone recognizes it has to be huge, bipartisan and executed quickly. The GOP seems ready to die on the hill of corporate socialism.

I'm not sure I'm down with restricting stock buy-backs in general. The compelling argument I've seen is that airlines would go bankrupt even if they had stockpiled all of their stock buy-back cash, so given that the government has to regularly bail them out anyway, the appropriate action isn't to make bailouts contingent on banning buy-backs, it's to make bailouts contingent on nationalizing those airlines.

Restricting buy-backs basically just means airlines will split their profits between higher executive pay and dividends instead.
 
Dont worry the first 3000 dead americans dont count if your a Republican. Italy went from nothing to over 4k dead, because it basicly was caught completely unprepared and it looks like the US is basicly making all the same mistakes

Your article said:

By the end of January and beginning of February, a majority of the intelligence contained in Trump's daily briefings was about the coronavirus, according to The Post.

That was when Trump banned flights from China while some politician was urging Italians to hug Chinese people.

In the Libertarian fantasy world, Corporations would have calculated that a few million dead is a small price to pay to save the stock market
The Free market would have efficently dug mass graves in no time. Crisis SOLVED !

Corporations wouldn't exist in a libertarian fantasy world

Business Insider is clickbait trash. Focus on staying healthy, give politics a rest. I did.

I dont know how they could argue Trump did nothing when he was accused of hysterical xenophobia and other malfeasance for a travel ban from ground zero. He does something and they complain and then accuse him of doing nothing. Partisanship aint helping.

The Republicans administration was slow to act because they were reluctant to take measures which would be perceived as unfriendly to business.

Was a travel ban friendly to business?

On a brighter note, spare a thought for the libertarians out there watching this crisis annihilate their whole ideology lol

I'm not sure any ideology guarantees the freedom to travel with contagions
 
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