Departamento da Forças Armadas

Looking good :) Don't know if the workers were worth giving up the surprise but I guess the power graph never lie... :)

Beware of plako's immortal in the border with MS in the far west... it could steal some of our precious workers next turn...

Cheers,
Ras

PS: great job doing this Slaze! :)
 
Off topic, but I swear if we won this war Memphus will eat his jokes (i think he didn't miss one occasion since a year...) :hammer:
see his last comment in the server thread...
 
Annoyingly lucky... they are :mad: We should not move lonely units again imo...

OT: nice sig Calis ;)
 
I don't think this is really winnable how it's going. It looks like we lost our window, they're about to catch up in military tech and and we can't do much alter their golden age. I'm sure they more than capable to run another GA right after this one.

Maybe what we should do is abandon the attack Sancta plan, turn the army around and take out Saturn while getting the navy up and running. That may be enough to turn the economic tide against sancta and then we can deal with them with modern weapons. We're still completely tied into Kaz's researching power and this would force that case even more so, although it would piss them off. Saturn MFG is dirt (look at turn 152 demo graph) although they would have rifles etc too.

We would have to force kaz to research to combustion (which Sancta could probably beat us to) and then we should be able to control them enough to spread them out. As long as MS stays loyal that should be ok.

We could continue on the path we're on but there's a decent chance they'd have drafted rifles when we finally make it - things are looking close enough as is, drafted rifles could decimate our stack, and then where'd we be.

It would just be so much easier to play defense, and go after the sure thing. The scenarios I'm looking at are that Sancta will get those 12 v 12 knight v cannon, and then we're at the mercy of the RNG and who knows if we'll be able to keep enough or be able to promote them back to fighting strength. I'd feel alot better if kaz would give me their numbers for their units at the time of attack (those bastards), we still probably have a overwhelming force between the two of us, I guess I'll ask them and take this turn by turn.

Sancta has 4 turns of "seeing us coming". As soon as we step onto the plains hill 2 SW of TKY we've vulnerable to them out-flanking us to porta nina, but i don't think they'd do that.

The navy's beginning to get going. The ivory city (cabo de ...) will finish dry dock in 2 turns, forbidden palace city is like 5. Zhou and fur city have been all units/no drydock up until now as well as capitol but would make good production centers for navy. Of course sancta's cities too and they'll dominate the seas if they can get their dykes up.

We could probably take TKY as planed but with heavy losses and it would be difficult to defend. But It would be much more efficient to take out saturns juicy commerce cities and that would have a better negative affect to sancta than taking out zero/TKY.
 
But maybe Kaz is going to insist in this war as they are expecting some of SANCTAs cities as a kind of loot from ths war!? I think if they want to go on, we should be at their side as planned, even with worse odds. But maybe you are able to convince them that it might be better to go after Saturn. AND there has to come the time when the RNG luck leaves SANCTA!!
 
About holding TKY: with G2 rifles and cannons, we could either raze it :)D) or take it with a 2 move unit then leave it empty for our cannons to strike again. Their option would be to flank us on a hill... you prolly vetoed that already, but... :)
 
I've consider many, many options, and razing it isn't out of the question. I've been seeing threads in Strategy and Tips where a city taken that has National Wonders still retains them if the conqueror doesn't have those already. Without Globe, 6 drafts will make that city useless for some time (although a significant HR stack could nullify a good amount of unhappy. Alot of these decisions need to be made as things play out (whether they attack, whether we get to attack, Whether they fall back to Dragon tears/avoid the fight, whether we can gather enough money to properly defend it with upgrades etc.).

I think their best move is to give us the city, upgrade all knights to Calvary, and pounce while we're stuck in the city (taking our cannon out of the fight) but we'll have to wait to see what actually happens. Even if that happens we should be able to put up a good defense with Kaz's force.

But who knows, they could put up a decent defence if they stay tucked in TKY. I think we just barely come out in favor of taking it, although it looks like it's going to be close.
 
Good points...
I think all cultural buildings/National wonders get destroyed when you take a city. Buildings remain when it's a trade/gift.
Can't wait the few next turns :)
 
I don't know what to say about their luck. I knew that if they attacked they could do some damage, maybe their second rifle could win a fight against a knight or the units at the end of the battle would win some. But this is how it broke down.

Spoiler :

our unit v their unit, our strength v their strength, their odds, our result

rifle v cat, 24.5 v 5, 0.0%, win, although they get 2 hits before our 3, we're at 80/100
rifle v cat, 19.6 v 5, 0.1%, win
rifle v rifle, 22.4 v 15.4, 10.9%, lose
pike v knight, 13.37 v 10, 21.7%, lose
pike v knight, 13.37 v 11, 26.6%, lose
knight v rifle, 10.23 v 14, 79.5%, lose
WE v knight, 12.51 v 12, 47.5%, lose
pike v knight, 12.05 v 11, 44.6%, lose
knight v spear, 5.5 v 4.4, 24.7%, lose
WE v HA, 11.42 v 6, 5.0%, withdrawl (30% rate)
knight v knight, 11.16 v 11, 49.3%, lose
knight v knight, 10.32 v 12, 71.2%, lose
knight v knight, 10.23 v 10, 48.8% lose
WE v axe, 4.03 v 5, 85.2%, lose

Going by the game odds(which i've heard aren't the most accurate) and not counting the catapults, multiplying all these percentages yeilds about a 1 in 100,000 chance for them to win all these battles.

They also killed the two workers and pillaged the road by deleting a chariot.
 
Those are the listed odds from the battle logs? We lost every single fight except the two catapults, or were there more you didn't put in?
 
That was everything, the whole stack on the graas hill dead. I saw the kaz PM, posted it and then went ingame to see what he was talking about. I've also PMed Sullla.
 
Omitting the catapult hits at the top of the list and the horse archer battle (since withdrawal complicates things), we should have had a 99.996% chance of winning at least one of those, going by the listed odds.

If there are a bunch of victories you didn't list, it's not that crazy.
 
OK saw your post. Holy crap, then. I thought when I saw the message you posted from cav_scout that it was just sour grapes, but oh my god.
 
1 chance in 25,000 to do that well, and that's not counting the off-odds HA withdrawal. I don't know how they could cheat like that! It seems impossible. But those odds are just beyond freakish. You could play a whole civ career and not get a 1-in-25000 battle outcome like that. (Might lose at those odds in individual battles a few times, but when it's a full-stack outcome you're talking about many fewer rolls of the dice to play with, if you know what I mean.)
 
I remember reading in some multiplayer thread about some rude/arrogant gamespy player swearing that some multiplayer players could go into the game code and cheat. People confronted him and he couldn't present any evidence, only say he's seen units move like 4 times in a turn and stuff like that.

But i spent alot of time calculating this all out. I knew that if they had a second rifle (dragon tears was 1 tile too far for a third) we'd probably lose that - i even promoted a knight to pinch as sort of sacrifice in case they attacked. For the most part I got the battles i wanted, they just won ALL OF THEM. And in my math i get a 1 in 87263 chance to win them all.
 
With a Pseudo-RNG like the one CIV is using the chance is even smaller, since PRNG is inherently designed to avoid overly long streaks of good/bad luck.
 
Yeah, that's definitely the same ballpark as me, since I just omitted that one HA retreat.

Man, I don't know. I'm really not one to complain about freakish outcomes in general. I don't have that much invested in this game anymore to be upset at a bad loss. If this was a 2% or a 5% victory, I wouldn't even blink. But 0.00x%? Really? I'm just boggled. No matter what actually happened.
 
I don't think I have anything invested anymore either. I don't trust that we're on a level playing field. It's fake.
 
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