Eccentric Billionaire Unleashes His Inner Trump

Here's the thing though - we actually have not seen the impact of re-usability on launch prices. SpaceX's cost reductions to date have been purely in improvements to the manufacturing and test process, a willingness to take risks and the use of non-aerospace parts providers. Their launch costs are already rock bottom for the industry and they've only just begun reflying boosters. These boosters that they are reflying are already out of date - the newest version (block 5) will be much faster to recycle as they will require less inspections and tear downs. Because their costs are already so low they do not currently have to give big discounts on reflown rockets. That will come only when other reusable rockets from Blue Origin and China come on the market.

I think launch costs could go as low as $10 million with block 5 in a few years. BFR will likely break the sub-$1 million launch cost barrier. Currently launch costs for a large geostationary satellite are sitting at about $60 million, for reference. That's about half of what most other providers can offer. The Russians, Indians and Chinese can go lower but there are a lot of caveats with those providers I won't get into.

I do think the uses of outer space are relatively unknown right now. Resource extraction is the obvious low-hanging fruit but we have done very little research into in-space manufacturing. There will be all sorts of novel drugs, computer chips and super materials that can be made only in 0 g that we don't know about right now simply because it's been to expensive to get up there and experiment. The ISS was supposed to be the place to figure this stuff out but for a whole host of reasons it has fallen short to the point where the NASA office that coordinates research on the ISS has fallen under criticism for the under-utilization of the facility for research.

We are not going to find unobtanium in space. We will find instead invent new processes for manufacturing drugs and materials that are only possible in 0g that will improve life on Earth substantially. Eventually, as we build up our in-space industrial capacity (which is currently 0), we will begin moving down the economic ladder and producing more ordinary materials and extracting resources in space as it avoids all of the industrial impact and pollution that has thus far greatly harmed the Earth.

I do agree that there is nothing economically attractive about colonizing Mars until the colony itself develops an economy which is probably something that will take many decades.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.space.com/40781-spacex-used-rocket-ses-12-satellite-launch.html

Except, no, you are just factually wrong. We are seeing rockets being reused, this has already been done and is being done more and more, so, yes, reuse is factually happening and, yes, it is dramatically driving down costs. This is why France is sniveling about how it's Araine rockets can't compete and why Russia's space launch industry is in a nose dive. Fact.
 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.space.com/40781-spacex-used-rocket-ses-12-satellite-launch.html

Except, no, you are just factually wrong. We are seeing rockets being reused, this has already been done and is being done more and more, so, yes, reuse is factually happening and, yes, it is dramatically driving down costs. This is why France is sniveling about how it's Araine rockets can't compete and why Russia's space launch industry is in a nose dive. Fact.
You are aware hobbs used to work for SpaceX and still works designing rockets?
 
It's almost like he didn't read what I actually wrote and instead attacked something else entirely...
 
SpaceX is not currently offering the deep discounts they initially talked about since their prices are already rock bottom. The first couple likely got sweetheart deals to take the risk of being first but SpaceX has publicly backed off the 30%+ discounts they initially talked about. But other than that they simply do not have to offer the reusability discount since they are already market leaders. Moreover, Block 3 and 4 re-use is labor intensive as the boosters had to be partially torn down and inspected in ways Block 5 won't which meant they weren't actually saving heaps of money relaunching them. They do save a ton of time though (tear downs may not be cheap but they are faster than building new boosters from scratch) which is a big saver.

Russia's problems currently have way more to do with Russian Quality Control issues than they do with SpaceX's price. They actually can compete with SpaceX on cost alone but have a tendency to drop payloads in the ocean and other technical problems related to launch locations and Ukrainian suppliers.

Arianespace is currently feeling the pain though and their recent launch problem was a bad stain on their record they really didn't need at this critical time.

I am the last person to claim expertise - just recently I ate a huge helping of humble pie in the space cadets thread - but generally it's helpful if you read and understand the points that were made before attempting to tear someone down. And the funny thing is from your tenor I take it you think I'm a SpaceX hater which is seriously wrong.
 
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Russia's problems currently have way more to do with Russian Quality Control issues than they do with SpaceX's price. They actually can compete with SpaceX on cost alone but have a tendency to drop payloads in the ocean and other technical problems related to launch locations and Ukrainian suppliers.
If Russia's space industry keeps this up; they will be world leaders in deep-oceanic exploration.
 
You can keep making up all the excuses you want but the hard reality is Space X really is driving down launch prices and other providers really are having trouble competing with those much reduced prices. Fact.
 
You can keep making up all the excuses you want but the hard reality is Space X really is driving down launch prices and other providers really are having trouble competing with those much reduced prices. Fact.
Kinda like Ford with the Model T.
 
You can keep making up all the excuses you want but the hard reality is Space X really is driving down launch prices and other providers really are having trouble competing with those much reduced prices. Fact.
Again you aren't actually reading what I have said.


SpaceX is not currently offering the deep discounts they initially talked about since their prices are already rock bottom.

You're not even trying
 
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