Is Carlos Beltran a HoF?

[onejayhawk]

By some measures he's well short. By others, he's already over. Beltran is a remarkable player whose best years came after age 30. Does he deserve enshinement?

J

 

[EgonSpengler]

I think a good case can be made.

Beltran's career WAR: 70
Current Hall of Famers with a WAR around 70: Frankie Frisch, Ron Santo, Barry Larkin, Bobby Wallace, Gary Carter, Ed Delahanty.
Average WAR for HoF Hitter: 69

Frisch, Santo, Larkin and Wallace were all infielders and Carter was a catcher, and Delahanty played in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Some might expect more from a 21st-century outfielder to warrant the HoF, but then somebody else would point out that position-weighting is notoriously inconsistent (there are very few catchers in the Hall, most famously).

Beltran's career OPS: .845
Average OPS for HoF: .839

Beltran's career OPS+: 121
Average OPS+ for HoF: ???

I like WAR and OPS+ because they compares a player to his peers. OPS+ only measures his 'theoretical' offense, with no accounting for what his hitting actually accomplished for his teams, nor his baserunning or defense. I can't find a list of Hall-of-Famers by OPS+. His raw OPS slots him in among guys from earlier eras: Reggie Jackson, Carl Yastrzemski, Kirby Puckett, Tony Gwynn, Tony Lazzeri.

Reggie's raw OPS is .846 to Beltran's .845, but Reggie's OPS+ is 139. Yaz's OPS is 'only' .841 but his OPS+ is 130.

And then there's the question of peak years. How do we weigh a consistently-good player who never won an MVP, never led the league in anything, never had a 1.000 OPS, never had 350 total bases, and whose best single-season WAR is tied with 17 others for 234th all-time? If seasons went into the Hall of Fame, Beltran wouldn't have even 1, in my view.

Still, though, he's a solid, all-around player. Of course being a great fantasy-baseball pick isn't the same as being a Hall of Famer, but again, I think a case can be made.

 

[onejayhawk]

I find it interesting that most of his comparables are gun armed RF, Winfield, Evans, Dawson. Except for Dewey Evans, all are HoF. Beltran was a quality CF, so he brings more defensive chops than this list of GG winners.

All this begs a second question, should Evans be in the HoF?

J

 

[EgonSpengler]

I find it interesting that most of his comparables are gun armed RF, Winfield, Evans, Dawson. Except for Dewey Evans, all are HoF. Beltran was a quality CF, so he brings more defensive chops than this list of GG winners.

All this begs a second question, should Evans be in the HoF?

J

That's a good question. Here's some food for thought:

Career WAR, all-time:

83. Ryne Sandberg - 67.5
84. Ernie Banks - 67.4
85. Dwight Evans - 66.9
86. Roberto Alomar - 66.8
87. Duke Snider - 66.5

Dewey's the only one not in the Hall.

 

[EgonSpengler]

Ooh, there's another name: Scott Rolen. 70.0 WAR, just above Gary Carter's 69.9 and just below Carlos Beltran's 70.1, and of course better than those 5 guys I listed above. Rolen was better than Sandberg and Banks? That'll get you killed in parts of Chicago.

 

[EgonSpengler]

I did some nerding out last night, and I've backed away from an OPS+ of 120-130 as being worthy of the Hall of Fame. Ellis Burks, Paul O'Neill, Bobby Bonilla, Shawn Green, Lance Berkman, Moises Alou, Brian Giles, Will Clark. I could keep going. All solid guys that any team would have been happy to have in their primes, but the Hall of Fame?

 

[onejayhawk]

Ooh, there's another name: Scott Rolen. 70.0 WAR, just above Gary Carter's 69.9 and just below Carlos Beltran's 70.1, and of course better than those 5 guys I listed above. Rolen was better than Sandberg and Banks? That'll get you killed in parts of Chicago.

Rolen is the reason Adrain Beltre does not have more Gold Gloves. Beltre finished second in the voting to Rolen multiple times. Up until about 2013 they were very even. I remember similar discussions then. Now Adrien Beltre is a no brainer.

Cubs fans would like to kill me, but Sandberg is overrated. Outstanding all-around player, but the park is a large factor in his stats, his career was fairly short, and his peak was much higher than his normal years. He does not hold a candle to, say, Joe Morgon. I am not sure he's better than Robinson Cano.

I did some nerding out last night, and I've backed away from an OPS+ of 120-130 as being worthy of the Hall of Fame. Ellis Burks, Paul O'Neill, Bobby Bonilla, Shawn Green, Lance Berkman, Moises Alou, Brian Giles, Will Clark. I could keep going. All solid guys that any team would have been happy to have in their primes, but the Hall of Fame?

There is a huge defense and baserunning factor on several of those names. A quality MI or CF that hit like Lance Berkman would be one of the ten best players ever at his position. Bobby Bonilla had no position defensively. Even the OF are suspect fielders, much less CF. I am also not convinced OPS+ is the best stat. Why not WAR which at least has a defense element?

J

 

[EgonSpengler]

I am also not convinced OPS+ is the best stat. Why not WAR which at least has a defense element?

By itself, you mean? I guess I'm reluctant to use a single metric for something like the HoF. I guess I also use MVP/Cy Young awards, and the so-called "black ink" measure, too (leading the league in a stat category).

On another subject: Ozzie Smith. 87 career OPS+, 76.5 WAR, good for 70th all-time. That's just ridiculous.

 

[onejayhawk]

By itself, you mean? I guess I'm reluctant to use a single metric for something like the HoF. I guess I also use MVP/Cy Young awards, and the so-called "black ink" measure, too (leading the league in a stat category).

On another subject: Ozzie Smith. 87 career OPS+, 76.5 WAR, good for 70th all-time. That's just ridiculous.

Was Ozzie a better defensive player than Andrelton Simmons? If so, it would not be by much. Offensively, he was also not much better. Is Andrelton Simmons a budding HoF SS? I love the Wizard, but he was a poor hitter for the first half of his career and never had any power. He's the 1980s version of Rabbit Moranville, which is fine. We should recognize true glove genius. Just don't imagine Ozzie as a balanced player, especially in his 20s.

J

 

[EgonSpengler]

Was Ozzie a better defensive player than Andrelton Simmons? If so, it would not be by much. Offensively, he was also not much better. Is Andrelton Simmons a budding HoF SS? I love the Wizard, but he was a poor hitter for the first half of his career and never had any power. He's the 1980s version of Rabbit Moranville, which is fine. We should recognize true glove genius. Just don't imagine Ozzie as a balanced player, especially in his 20s.

J

That was my point, yes. As for Simmons, if consistency is a virtue then yes, if he keeps this up for another 12+ years I think we would have to consider him for the Hall. If he averages a WAR of 4.5, he'll hit 75 late in the 2028 season, around his 38th birthday. If he puts up a few seasons of 5.5-6 in his late 20s and early 30s, he'll be on his way. Whether he plays 18-20 years will be a big factor.

Of course, Ozzie was also incredibly well-known and popular, and got a lot of national exposure. By that measure, Simmons is nowhere. The Angels would have to turn things around soon, otherwise he'll continue to toil in obscurity.

 

[Martin Alvito]

On another subject: Ozzie Smith. 87 career OPS+, 76.5 WAR, good for 70th all-time. That's just ridiculous.

Well, obviously Ozzie didn't get in strictly on the merits. It's been observed that it's the Hall of Fame.

As far as Beltran goes - I feel like he's one of those dreaded longevity candidates. The difference between barely being in the top 100 on WAR and being mired down near 200 is six fairly mediocre seasons. A less than 2:3 BB/SO ratio is kind of ghastly when coupled with a .282 BA, and his OBP and slugging just don't make up for it. Add in the fact that he never even sniffed an MVP and the current backlog of quality candidates, and I'd find it very hard indeed to vote for him if the election were today.

To put it another way, if Edmonds drops off the first ballot, where does that leave Beltran (who compares unfavorably on a lot of measures)? Great player, but short of Cooperstown in my estimation.

 

[onejayhawk]

I think his point was that Ozzie was better than his career WAR.

That's a reasonable counter argument. Edmonds is an interesting comparison because both were stellar fielders. As you say, longevity. Beltran was good MUCH longer.

J

 

[onejayhawk]

I chanced across a mention of Beltran in an article on Adrian Beltre. Beltre is a no-brainer HoF player to SABR types, but not so much to many casual fans (such as the writers who vote). Beltre was one of 10 players who was below the HoF average for projected WAR but over for actual WAR. In his case, it was from being the second best defensive 3B in history, after Brooks Robinson.

Beltan was another of the 10 players. Again, this is possibly because his defense is under-rated by his hardware. He was the best defensive CF at least three times when he did not win the GG. The article is over a year old, so both players added outstanding seasons to their resume.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/adrian-beltre-is-hall-of-fame-worthy/

J

 

[EgonSpengler]

I knew that Beltre was a good player, but I guess I underestimated him, because his WAR surprised me. 90.2! 45th all-time. And his 2016 vaulted him to 3rd-best among Texas Rangers. If he plays until he's 40, he should become the Greatest Ranger Ever (by WAR), although the Rangers haven't really had their signature, 1-franchise player yet.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Beltran should get in, but the HoF hasn't relaxed standards at all even though we have more teams and players from when the current ones were instituted. Besdies his counting stats, from a 'story' stand point, the dude has a phenomenal postseason record.

 

[onejayhawk]

I knew that Beltre was a good player, but I guess I underestimated him, because his WAR surprised me. 90.2! 45th all-time. And his 2016 vaulted him to 3rd-best among Texas Rangers. If he plays until he's 40, he should become the Greatest Ranger Ever (by WAR), although the Rangers haven't really had their signature, 1-franchise player yet.

Frankly, that underestimates Beltre. He belongs in the discussion for best ever at the position. When you say he's a better defender than Eric Chavez, Buddy Bell, and Gary Gaetti it does not turn heads. When the names are Scott Rolen and Mike Schmidt it says more.

As a hitter, he will get 3000 hits to go with 1500 R, 1500 RBI and 450 HR. That's just 2017. He should top 500 HR before he's done. As a hitter, he's Eddie Murray or Andre Dawson. Now that the counting stats are starting to pile high, he's a first ballot candidate. The question is whether he is better than Boggs, Brett, or Jones for the #2 spot behind Schmidt?

J

 

[onejayhawk]

Carlos Beltran hangs them up. He gets (finally) a World Series win with the Astros. In a 20 year career, he was 9x an All-Star, .279/.350/.486 batting line, 435 HR, 1,587 RBI, 312 SB, and 2,725 hits.

J

 

[schlaufuchs]

I like WAR and OPS+ because they compares a player to his peers. OPS+ only measures his 'theoretical' offense, with no accounting for what his hitting actually accomplished for his teams, nor his baserunning or defense. I can't find a list of Hall-of-Famers by OPS+. His raw OPS slots him in among guys from earlier eras: Reggie Jackson, Carl Yastrzemski, Kirby Puckett, Tony Gwynn, Tony Lazzeri.

Reggie's raw OPS is .846 to Beltran's .845, but Reggie's OPS+ is 139. Yaz's OPS is 'only' .841 but his OPS+ is 130.

And then there's the question of peak years. How do we weigh a consistently-good player who never won an MVP, never led the league in anything, never had a 1.000 OPS, never had 350 total bases, and whose best single-season WAR is tied with 17 others for 234th all-time? If seasons went into the Hall of Fame, Beltran wouldn't have even 1, in my view.

Still, though, he's a solid, all-around player. Of course being a great fantasy-baseball pick isn't the same as being a Hall of Famer, but again, I think a case can be made.

I mean, you could just grab the csv from fangraphs, convert it to an excel, delete non-HOFs, and then look at wRC+ as a proxy since wRC+ and OPS+ are more or less the same.

 

[onejayhawk]

I think the thing that would tip me as a voter is the defense. For five years he was a Gold Glove caliber CF and an above average OF for 15 years. If you look at this comps on baseball-reference.com, Andre Dawson is by far the closest. Also in the mix are Dave Winfield, Al Kaline and Dwight Evans--all GG RF with big arms. Five of his top 10 comps are HoF, two are not eligible and Dwight Evans should be.

On the Jaws rankings, Beltran will finish #8. All seven ahead of him are in the HoF, as well as twelve who are behind. By these rankings, Beltran is not only a reasonable HoF candidate, he would be right in the middle of the ones already enshrined. He is, for example, a clearly better player than Kirby Puckett.

J

 

[onejayhawk]

It's not really the right place for this, but Adrian Beltre became the all-time leader in hits by a player not born in the 50 states, passing Ichiro. The player with 3000 hits are Beltre Ichiro, Rod Carew, Albert Pujols, Rafael Palmero, and Roberto Clemente. Beltran with 2725 hits ranks 10th.

J