Peak Oil

[Borachio]

Well, here's a topic and no mistake.

Peak oil, an event based on M. King Hubbert's theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline.[1] Peak oil theory is based on the observed rise, peak, (sometimes rapid) fall, and depletion of aggregate production rate in oil fields over time. Mostly due to the development of new production techniques and the exploitation of unconventional supplies, Hubbert's original predictions for world production proved too conservative. Peak oil is often confused with oil depletion; peak oil is the point of maximum production, while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply.

Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, predict negative global economy implications following a post-peak production decline and oil price increase because of the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural, and industrial systems on the low cost and high availability of oil. Predictions vary greatly as to what exactly these negative effects would be.

Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin after 2020, and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis, without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming nations. These models show the price of oil at first escalating and then retreating as other types of fuel and energy sources are used.[2] Pessimistic predictions of future oil production made after 2007 stated either that the peak had already occurred,[3][4][5][6] that oil production was on the cusp of the peak, or that it would occur shortly

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

There doesn't seem to be much of a consensus on whether peak oil is a thing, nor whether it's already happened or not.

Wiser heads than mine will have to tell me all about it.

 

[Kozmos]

I think we have a long-running thread concerning Oil discussions.

 

[BenitoChavez]

Peak oil has to be a thing. There is only a limited amount of everything, including oil, on planet earth. At some point we will no longer be able to extract it anymore. When that will occur is certainly important but what is usually glossed over is the environmental impact of getting and burning said oil.

 

[timtofly]

Is peak oil an economic term?

 

[Borachio]

I think we have a long-running thread concerning Oil discussions.

And here it is.

 

[Antilogic]

Peak oil has to be a thing. There is only a limited amount of everything, including oil, on planet earth. At some point we will no longer be able to extract it anymore. When that will occur is certainly important but what is usually glossed over is the environmental impact of getting and burning said oil.

This. If you have continuously improving extraction technology on any finite resource, there will be a peak.

 

[Borachio]

The question remains when, though.

It may be so far in the future that either, to all intents and purposes, the resource is infinite, or the requirement for the resource becomes met by an alternative technology. In both cases the notion of the peak resource is moot.

 

[onejayhawk]

It has almost certainly not happened yet. Extraction techniques are still primitive

 

[crabapple]

All discussions about peak oil, shouldnt be about when or if it happens, but on how we as a society can change, how can our economy system change so we are not affected by peak oil. We need a less growth focused economy

 

[CavLancer]

Peak oil has been delayed by peak extraction. You heard it here first.

Correct me if I'm wrong but they're setting explosives at the bottom of the well somehow and the boom is called fracking? Then the oil flows out of all the little cracks, yes? If that's correct are there any estimates as to how long it will flow?

To me peak oil is pretty close to the end of industrial civilizations. Almost all the fertilizer comes from oil, lots of houses heat with oil and the food gets to market not on the backs of animals but in trucks requiring fuel. Animals don't plow the fields or collect the harvest in many places. When the fuel starts becoming depleted, bad things happen. People don't starve or freeze peacefully...

Yes?

 

[Borachio]

Afaik, frakking involves pumping down a pressurized liquid rather than an explosive; but never mind, it probably amounts to the same thing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic_fracturing

There are considerable resources trapped in the shale. Some percentage of which could be successfully extracted.

Whether the environmental costs - both direct (e.g. pollution of water tables) and long term (climate change) - will be worth it, is a matter of debate.

But as long as the demand for energy remains high - and there's no reason to think that it won't - then shale gas/oil is very likely to be heavily exploited, imo.

 

[LamaGT]

Couldn't there be an oil plateau instead of a peak instead? So that while conventional methods for extraction provide scarcer and scarcer results alternative methods rise up to make up for it... For a while. I'm not an engineer of course but it kind of makes sense IMHO.

 

[CavLancer]

Afaik, frakking involves pumping down a pressurized liquid rather than an explosive; but never mind, it probably amounts to the same thing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic_fracturing

There are considerable resources trapped in the shale. Some percentage of which could be successfully extracted.

Whether the environmental costs - both direct (e.g. pollution of water tables) and long term (climate change) - will be worth it, is a matter of debate.

But as long as the demand for energy remains high - and there's no reason to think that it won't - then shale gas/oil is very likely to be heavily exploited, imo.

Thank you Borachio. I read somewhere that the US will soon become an oil exporting nation. Don't know if that's true or perhaps no more imports from outside North America. That's amazing to me. Ever since the 70's the US has been fighting this addiction and now, everything has changed. I was in those gas lines in the 70s, I regretted the way the US had lost its energy freedom.

Richard Heinberg is controversial, he wrote 'The End of Growth". He's been warning about peak oil for a long time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SvdTCys54Y

 

[El_Machinae]

Peak Oil is, as said upthread, a physical certainty.
So, to me, it's a question of how wisely we invest in the meantime. As it is, we're turning oil into human quality-of-life at a certain ratio. (Canada is currently at $5.7/kg of oil). Some of that is spent on progress (roughly 2% of the total) and the rest is either spent on living or on luxuries.

That said, there was a recent author who pointed out that we cannot even burn all of our oil (nevermind natural gas and coal) without crossing tipping points on the climate change front. So, ostensibly, we shouldn't come close to tapping all of the proven reserves.

 

[caketastydelish]

I hope we stop using oil far before it actually has run out. It doesn't take a genius to tell it's ruining our environment.

 

[Whomp]

I said in the old thread and believe another peak trend people continue to not pay much attention to is the driving boom is over in the US (and probably in Canada and EU). Miles driven have been declining going on eight years now and fewer per person then we did at the end of Bill Clinton's first term. In 99 out of 100 cities the proportion of workers commuting by private vehicle is down since 2000. Households without a car increased in 84 of 100 cities. The opposite is occurring in bikes, car sharing, transit etc.

This alone slows the peak oil trend.

 

[El_Machinae]

Are we driving less because oil has gotten more expensive?

 

[Whomp]

Actually, the correlation to gas prices and miles driven is pretty weak and even weaker since 2007. Aging population/less driving, more remote working and a generation that doesn't have the desire to drive like the boomers did.

Another interesting note is the largest urban areas that were the least affected by the recession have the biggest drop off in driving. Tipping point?

 

[Borachio]

Yes. It seems likely that car travel is becoming slightly less.

Meanwhile, air travel, and air freight, is on the increase.

From 1992 to 2005, passenger kilometers increased 5.2% per year, even with the disruptions of 9/11 and two significant wars. Since the onset of the current recession:
"During the first three quarters of 2010, air travel markets expanded at an annualized rate approaching 10%. This is similar to the rate seen in the rapid expansion prior to the recession. November’s results mean the annualized rate of growth so far in Q4 drops back to around 6%. But this is still in line with long run rates of traffic growth seen historically. The level of international air travel is now 4% above the pre-recession peak of early 2008 and the current expansion looks to have further to run."[20]
"Air freight reached a new high point in May (2010) but, following the end of inventory restocking activity, volumes have slipped back to settle at a similar level seen just before the onset of recession. Even so, that means an expansion of air freight during 2010 of 5-6% on an annualized basis – close to historical trend. With the stimulus of inventory restocking activity removed, further growth in air freight demand will be driven by end consumer demand for goods which utilize the air transport supply chain. ... The end of the inventory cycle does not mean the end of volume expansion but markets are entering a slower growth phase."[20]

In a 2008 presentation[6] and paper [21] Professor Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research showed how continued aviation growth in the UK threatens the ability of that nation to meet CO2 emission reduction goals necessary to contain the century-end temperature increase to even 4 or 6C°. (See also: the 4 Degrees and Beyond International Climate Conference (2009)[22] and its proceedings.)[23] His charts show the projected domestic aviation carbon emission increase for the UK as growing from 11 MT in 2006 to 17 MT in 2012, at the UK's historic annual emission growth rate of 7%. Beyond 2012 if the growth rate were reduced to 3% yearly, carbon emissions in 2030 would be 28 MT, which is 70% of the UK's entire carbon emissions budget that year for all sectors of society. This work also suggests the foreseeable future which confronts many other nations that have high dependency on aviation. "Hypermobile Travelers,"[24] an academic study by Stefan Gössling et al. (2009) in the book "Climate Change and Aviation,"[25] also points to the dilemma caused by the increasing hypermobility of air travelers both in particular nations and globally.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_aviation

 

[Arachnofiend]

Science has generally outperformed the expectations of doomsday theorists. We should be sleeping in piles on the stairs, all transportation reserved for the wealthiest of the wealthy, and eating people in green squares by now but science just keeps getting better and outrunning society's needs. Though oil is a finite resource we have every reason to believe that we will have functionally replaced it by the time that is a real threat. There's a lot of money in it.