SGOTM 03 - Short Straw

[ungy]

Some MM --Moscow needs to work the fish and get more hammers--inc. the uranium. Since it has the bonus it should max hammers and grow a bit.

Fire all the specs since we are done with GP and set all cities to max food to prevent more from being hired.

 

[ungy]

Trades: my thinking is sell phil around. We can get banking for sci method--I'm leaning against doing that. While it is obviously pretty lopsided, MM may go for bio which would be nice and in any case won't trade it around so it's not terrible. I would like to get econ from MM but I think it makes sense to try and get banking elsewhere and econ from mm for sci method later.

 

[Lmtoops]

The other big question I have is should we tech for chem? The argument for is that we can't accomplish what we need to in the 50 turns to UN so we need the military help.

That may be true, but to be honest I think we have not built up properly. Specifically we need to whip--not like last game but we need those hammers.
The argument is pretty basic--we need about 60% of the pop. So if we add 2.5 pop that is the same as taking one pop from the opposing column to our column. Also we need more food to grow cities bigger but even forgetting about that efect 2.5 pop whips at 55 per (at least) or 138 hammers. If we build 138 hammers worth of units we take considerably more than one pop--likely 1/2 a city with say 8 pop. So it's not really a close call.

If we have to change civics that will slow our research, and we likely need to conquer 5 or 6 civs if we get the allies. I guess I'm not convinced that we need gren but I'm up in the air--if you guys think we should get chem I'll research it immediately.

I didn't follow all of your pop..whip analysis. I'm sure it's all correct.

I think we can research Chem. without delaying our overall victory. I don't know if we will need Granadiers, but it would be nice to have them.

ON THE OTHER HAND
We could skip Chem, now. If we need it after MM, we could research it quicker. We would have more cities, more pop, and more beakers.
After getting Chem, we shutdown our research to do massive upgrades. In which case we will have Grans with the city attacker upgrade.

Hmmm....so now I think we should wait on Chem.

 

[ungy]

As for Chem, Grog expressed my thoughts. I sure we can get Chem, and not delay our overall time. I am approx. 80% sure we will get MM before the other civs. I know with the new AI, they value the UN more, so it's possible someone else gets UN.

I think it's a virtual certainty that we get Mass Media first even with the detour. Like you say, if not we're going to be sec general anyway so doesn't matter.

 

[ungy]

I didn't follow all of your pop..whip analysis. I'm sure it's all correct.

I think we can research Chem. without delaying our overall victory. I don't know if we will need Granadiers, but it would be nice to have them.

ON THE OTHER HAND
We could skip Chem, now. If we need it after MM, we could research it quicker. We would have more cities, more pop, and more beakers.
After getting Chem, we shutdown our research to do massive upgrades. In which case we will have Grans with the city attacker upgrade.

Hmmm....so now I think we should wait on Chem.

I think if we're going to do it it should be soon. The only reason not to do it immediately if we're going to do it is the likelyhood of being able to trade for gunpowder fairly soon. If we're going that route, that is the tradeoff--wait and get gunpowder in trade or get it all sooner by self research.

 

[Grogs]

Trades: my thinking is sell phil around. We can get banking for sci method--I'm leaning against doing that. While it is obviously pretty lopsided, MM may go for bio which would be nice and in any case won't trade it around so it's not terrible. I would like to get econ from MM but I think it makes sense to try and get banking elsewhere and econ from mm for sci method later.

You should be able to make the deal Mansa offered me earlier, Phil+110g or so for Banking. If he's willing to trade Economics, you can get the gold back the next turn with a Sci. Method for Econ trade. Except for the possibility of building relations with Mansa, I don't think we'll get much out of Free Market (most of the extra trade routes will be with ourselves.)

EDIT: The only reason I didn't trade phil around earlier is because it's on the path to Mil. Tradition and Democracy.

 

[Grogs]

OK--here's my thoughts.

On the big picture--who do we attack next, we need to answer the question are we trying to get some votes or do a self-vote?

If we want allies, the plan I think needs to be to keep MM and Hattie as happy as possible as they are our candidates. We can get civic bonuses as well as religion which are substantial for those two. I think we should be able to get +8 for religion and +2 for civic (free market) from MM. Hattie is +6 and +3. I'm also not sure how long it takes to get the full bonuses. Free market is OK as a civic, but all the rest hurt us quite a bit. We also lose the turns of revolution.

We can also likely bribe them into a war late on to pick up another +1.

We are currently +6 with Hattie and +4 with MM--this needs to get to +8.

So if we get +10 from civic/rel then we can only take -6 with MM in vassals and DOW my friend. That restricts us somewhat but I think the prospect of picking up 2 of the larger civs is worth it.

So I think this path would be JC first. If we go Gandhi next (better map wise), we take another -1. Each vassal is also -1 so we may want to avoid vassalizing in a few cases. Leapfroging to Toku would avoid that hit.

I think I'm leaning toward this path--it would certainly make the game feel more like a diplomatic victory than a dom.

I do hate burning my bridges and closing off options, but...

The religion thing is a bit of a crap-shoot. Assuming we trade him philosophy, Mansa is 1 tech away from free religion. We could spend 70 turns building up the +religion modifiers only to see them vanish on the next turn when Mansa or Hatty switch to Free Religion (I think Hatty will stick the religion out, but I think there's a good chance Mansa will switch.)

The civics bonus is agonizingly slow to build up from my experience. I seem to recall it taking maybe 10-15 turns per +1. That means if we want to max them out, we need to trade for econ ASAP, and take the 4-5 turns of anarchy, switching to free trade, organized religion, and Confucianism.

I guess at the end of the day, I look at it like this: We can bend over backwards to please MM and Hatty by eating anarchy, conquering a couple of civs wholesale rather than vassalizing, and maybe come out better, or, quite possibly getting screwed.

So I'm going to throw my hat in for self-vote. It's a known quantity: take over x civs in the fastest manner possible and we win.

EDIT: Are we sure the vassal penalty is always just -1? I had a test game the other day, admittedly not real-world at all (I had a vassal in 3800 BC,) but I was getting -5 penalties.

 

[ungy]

You should be able to make the deal Mansa offered me earlier, Phil+110g or so for Banking. If he's willing to trade Economics, you can get the gold back the next turn with a Sci. Method for Econ trade. Except for the possibility of building relations with Mansa, I don't think we'll get much out of Free Market (most of the extra trade routes will be with ourselves.)

EDIT: The only reason I didn't trade phil around earlier is because it's on the path to Mil. Tradition and Democracy.

It's kind of surprising that it hasn't gotten around more by now. Seems like a decent time to pull the trigger.

I agree about FM--I think they will pretty much all be with ourselves. Still, we'll have more cities soon and we need it for Mali relations.
I think if I can get the deal you were offered I'll take it.

 

[Grogs]

On chem...

It seems like we all agree that we're military limited. Radio and Mass Media are both absolutely useless techs, save for the UN, which is just why it seems reasonable to research something useful while we're waiting for our pop. to catch up.

One thing to keep in mind is, if we vassalize we can direct their research and assuming we can keep them happy, we could trade for it. So in theory, we could vassalize Caesar, trade him up to chem, and have him research steel for us (assuming we could get him to trade it to us.) Of course we might just be able to get GP and Chem for us while we're teching towards MM. I'm afraid I just lack the experience to say if this works or not.

 

[Grogs]

Here are the world population figures.

Us 108
HC 108
Ghandi 76
Mansa 69
Hatty 73
Louis 49
JC 69
Monte 70
Toku 68
Vic 45
Cyrus 41
Washington 48
KK 50
Saladin 47
Mao 27
Frederick 17
Isabella 28
Total 993

I just eyeballed these numbers, so they're not 100% accurate, but they should be close. Actual world population is 1002, so just divide by 10 and you get the approximate % each civ has. We need at least 6, but probably 7 or even 8 AI's (one way or another) to get the vote.

 

[Lmtoops]

As Grog mentioned, this has happened to me: Trading up the vassal...and then the vassal refuses to trade the new tech. I figured the trade would be automatic...but not so.

I think I'll find more information on vassalage. The civilopedia is not much help.

 

[ungy]

I do hate burning my bridges and closing off options, but...

The religion thing is a bit of a crap-shoot. Assuming we trade him philosophy, Mansa is 1 tech away from free religion. We could spend 70 turns building up the +religion modifiers only to see them vanish on the next turn when Mansa or Hatty switch to Free Religion (I think Hatty will stick the religion out, but I think there's a good chance Mansa will switch.)

The civics bonus is agonizingly slow to build up from my experience. I seem to recall it taking maybe 10-15 turns per +1. That means if we want to max them out, we need to trade for econ ASAP, and take the 4-5 turns of anarchy, switching to free trade, organized religion, and Confucianism.

I guess at the end of the day, I look at it like this: We can bend over backwards to please MM and Hatty by eating anarchy, conquering a couple of civs wholesale rather than vassalizing, and maybe come out better, or, quite possibly getting screwed.

So I'm going to throw my hat in for self-vote. It's a known quantity: take over x civs in the fastest manner possible and we win.

You make good points. We definately pay some pretty high costs to maybe get the two votes. I'm happy to go the self vote route but I'll let some other people weigh in.

I like the plan of going for JC and keeping rolling in that direction.

I think I'm on board the chemistry detour--I agree we can't get the votes we need quick enough.

As for defense, once we get a vassal I think nobody will dare backstab us so the warriors are fine and we can use the LB's for front line defense.

 

[ungy]

I'm pretty sure if we take the chem detour we will end up tech limited. I think we'll get moving pretty fast.

Unless there's some objection I'll take out JC and research chem, trade around phil. Try and get econ from MM--I think FM is worth taking 1 turn anarchy for--won't do if it's 2. Pause after JC caps.

 

[Lmtoops]

The thread listed below has some good information on vassalage:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=193747&page=2

The relationship penalty is a max. of -1. The AI takes other factors into account (not sure but I think vassal strength, and attitude towards the vassal)....so there may be no penalty. In any case, the thread indicates the penalty is a maximum of -1.

The vassal cities count towards the # of cities maintenance costs (no distance penalty). Since there is a cap on this penalty, at some point there will be no additional costs.

In my experience (1 game ) the vassal will not trade techs (they are still pissed at you). So do not count on getting any techs from the vassal. I wonder...can you direct the vassal to research gold??? We can then trade for the gold.

Also, in my one game experience, my economy and research improved significantly after vassalage. I know that the vassal did not directly help with gold and beakers, but the reduced WW (due to war ending) and the addtional happiness helped considerably.

 

[mushroomshirt]

In my experience (1 game ) the vassal will not trade techs (they are still pissed at you). So do not count on getting any techs from the vassal. I wonder...can you direct the vassal to research gold??? We can then trade for the gold.

Generally my experience, too although they can quickly become friendly again particularly in this game where we will not have relationship penalties for city razing. After just one war with lots of other positives things can be OK - we will get the bonuses for defensive pact and mutual military struggle quickly. Big problem I think is that the vassals will tech sloooowly since they will be down to just a few crappy cities by the time we are able to capitulate them.

I like the idea of getting chemistry now if we are going to get it at all. Might as well get the benefit of building come grenadiers and possibly opening up a second front somewhere. Hard to see that we will need steel unless someone else is able to tech to chem or rifling. Grenadiers and a stack of cats for bombarding (not for collateral damage) work very nicely against LBs and muskets I think.

 

[RobertTheBruce]

Looking at Grogs pop figures, I think the self vote is probably our most realistic option. We have to avoid attacking H.C. to avoid voting against a Confucian ally and lose time to anarchy to get 2 sets of votes. Without attacking H.C., its hard to attack Monte and suddenly we need to attack a lot of garbage civs to win the vote.

Logistically, it would be easier to just spin around our island and vassalize every civ. Leave the outlying civs and Monte would be the only remaining enemy with >50 population.

Leaving Monte (70), Kublai(50), Louis (49), Washington (48), Saladin(47), Cyrus (41), Isabella(28) and Fred(17) gives us 650 out of 1000 votes. Allowing for population loss in conquered cities, this is probably a little bit short. If we have Mansa and Hatty as allies, we have to leave H.C. as well and attack two or three other civs to replace his votes.

I prefer not to self-vote diplomatic wins but the population splits and layout just make it tough.

I'm not sure about the research order but I'm leaning toward Chemistry early. If we are looking at attacking 9 civs, a superior unit will go a long way. I don't think we can fight quickly enough with maces and trebs against longbows for a beeline to Mass Media to be worthwhile.

ungy - your plan looks good. Hopefully, we can fund our research with cash from conquest and not be tech limited.

Edit: I've never been able to get a vassal to research anything other than filler techs for me. Either they are too mad to trade or so crippled that they can't research any expensive tech. I wouldn't give Chemistry to Caesar since he might trade it to his Hindu friends.

 

[ungy]

OK here we go

1184--start assembling invasion force.
Trade mission in timbuktu=1950
MM wants too much gold for banking--trade phil around.
leave forest by shanghai--I think we might want that for the UN?
whip galleon in Sparta

1190 disband a distant trireme.
Whip galleon in Athens. Mos treb-treb. Ros cat-treb.

1196 JC has astro.

1202 moving into position.
IBT gunpowder in--chem.

1208 Mos treb-gal

IBT cyrus cancels OB
Monte demands edu-Ha!
Caesar has a galleon in range of our crab.

1214 DOW JC. I actually thought I had DOW'd him when I wrote this and I lose most of a turn here. Kill his galleon and land part of the force.

1220 partially reduce pisae. Hat will give banking for edu. I think I'll wait a few turns.
IBT lose galley to caravel. 18 units land by Pisae. In retrospect this was a mistake--should have taken Rome first.

1226 Galleon kills caravel. Hastings forge-bar.
JC whips knight in Pisae. We attack Pisae and take it with no losses. JC has 11 units in Rome tho.

IBT counterattack treb retreats from our LB

1232 start to reduce Rome.

IBT counterattack kills XBow in Pisae, JC loses mace, treb. Chem in

1238 Louis and MM have Nat. JC has banking. Whip ch in Yar.

1244 Assault Rome. JC 9 units--2 LB. Lose 1 suicide cat! (but our army is pretty beaten up). 2 galleons and 2 caravels die in Rome.

1250 Move on Cumae.

1256 reduce cumae. Scout Bangalore, Bombay 3 units each.
IBT Hattie asks for Sci Meth-no thanks.
Vic wants to trade banking+ gold for edu--not yet.
HC-Free market.

1262 Scout Delhi 4 LB, 1 pike. Capture Cumae (4 units) no losses!
Bad news no capitulation. More bad news--4 ships just outside Cumae-2 Gal and 2 car.

Stop here for a break.

Save is here:

http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/civ4sgotm3/Short_Straw_SG003_AD1262_01.CivWarlordsSave

I'll post some thoughts in the AM.

 

[mushroomshirt]

ungy - looking good. Seems like ravenna antium and mediolanum may be work keeping - by then JC should definitely be willing to capitulate & hopefully after taking Antium.

When enough grenadiers pop maybe we should consider opening up a second front against Cyrus or Frederick? We could use them as warm-ups for taking on HC while we use our mighty army of macemen to take out Gandhi and Vic.

I think we may not be tech limited as you were posting earlier if we are going for a self-vote. We are 35 turns away from MM at 100% research and 56 turns away at break-even. That's an average 4-6 turns each to capitulate 9 civs. Even with two fronts, that will be tough. Maybe we should consider a break after electricity to upgrade our macemen to grenadiers to speed up conquest?

 

[Grogs]

ungy,

Good job kicking off our warmongering phase. Yeah, I had hoped Caesar would just throw in the towel, but I guess that was expecting too much this early. Hopefully once we've got 2-3 vassals helping us dogpile the civs (and a really massive military, the capitulations will come easier.For now, I'd say we need to keep pushing onwards against Caesar for as long as we can possibly do so. Sooner or later he'll capitulate (or we'll wipe him out.)

Right now, I would use 3 of our galleons to build a wall just east of Cumae. That way (if he even has troops on board) he'll have to land them right where he is, or else make a low% attack against our galleons. As the current round of grenadiers finishes, we should build some frigates to support our operations and protect our galleons. We could lose the equivalent of 3 frigates' worth of hammers if a galleon full of troops gets sunk, plus frigates can help bombard and defend our homeland from opportunistic civs. Once we know his navy isn't a threat, we can move the bulk of our land forces against either Ravenna or Antium. BTW, there's nothing that says we can't give a city back to Caesar after he capitulates is there? If one of the cities we take is being crushed by Caesar's culture, I think we're better off giving it back.

 

[Grogs]

A few MM things:

- I know you said you were cancelling the specs, and I agree we won't really get much out of more GP, but it doesn't make sense to me to *not* run engineers in low production / high food cities. In Athens, for example, we're at +5 food even after the -6 we're losing for happiness/health issues. The next citizen will probably starve off if WW increases. I would say the same for Yarl, Hastings, and (maybe) Beijing.

- I wouldn't build any more cottages from here on out. I don't think we'll have time to develop them past hamlets, so we're better off building things like workshops & farms, unless a cottage is the only thing a city can work on that tile.

- If we decide we want to go with Athens for the UN (see below) I think we should make at least a couple of the farms into workshops. We'd get an extra 6 hammers and still be at +8 food.

For the UN build, 2 choices stand out for me at the moment: Shanghai or Athens. Our GE will give us 750h + 30h/pop in the city, so we need a very large city or else we'll have a whole lot to build by hand. Rushing is incredibly nerfed with the UN apparently - we only get ~11h per population point. This means that the smallest city that can build the UN in a single turn is size 22 - 1410h from the engineer + a 9 pop whip to finish.

Getting a city that large (or close) won't be easy. Looking at Athens, we've got 13 happiness and 12 health and those need to get much higher to support a city that large. For the health, we'll get pigs from Rome (+1), +3 from a harbor (half-price for us) and +2 from an aqueduct. We can also take Toku's wheat by force for another +2, bringing the total to 21. For happiness, we'll get +1 for each vassal, so maybe +5 total. That brings us 18, but we have to plan for 2-3 points of WW for the rest of the game, so call it 16. We'll need at least a market (+3), and maybe a theater or colliseum as well.

Looking at the two cities, I tend to favor Athens. The downside is it needs to build more infrastructure than Shanghai, but it lacks the 'motherland' penalty of Shanghai and has a lot more production. In order to get it growing though, we probably need to take it off military production as soon as the current galleon finishes and get started on a harbour and then a market.