SGOTM 13 - Gypsy Kings

3) I'm not sure accelerating everyone with tech trades for gold is the right way to go. Sure priesthood for Joao's 60 gold and phood for Ragnar's 30 gold. But do we want to give away literature without more certainty on the music race? Do we want to accelerate everyone by trading away currency for a smallish amount of gold? We might want to wait to trade currency for when we can trade for a significant tech or trade it away when we might be able to get a sizable amount from failure gold from someone who gets beaten to a wonder like when we build the Great Library or for when someone else builds the Parthenon.
I agree with this.
 
Some assorted observations.

I did some cleanup and additions to the map signage. New uploaded save here. I've still "got it".

A few things to consider about teching construction and hitting on Vicki.

I like the idea but I have a few concerns

1) switching to construction probably means we lose the music race (vicki has had literature for 9 turns already she might well be close right now.) To assess how close she is it would be nice to know when she teched Alphabet and Metal Casting and if she appeared to trade for them.

Sure. On turn 159 (i.e. start of Griff's set), Vicky had none of Literature, Alphabet or MC. So we need him to look at his saved games to find out.

If we get 90:gold: out of trading, I estimate Music would take 14 turns and Construction 7. If we get 180:gold: out of trading, Music would take 13 turns and Construction 6.

@Griff, when did Vicki learn Alphabet and Metal Casting? Did it seem like she traded for them or did she tech one of them recently?

2) If we go to war we wouldn't be able to trade away both copper and iron (not a big loss but still something to consider since we do want several warrior MP if possible)

True. A later war would also allow us to organize more troops. Say, two galleys with four catapults to land on the forest north of London, while most of the ground troops walk in from the SW or NE.

Or, an opening attack landing about five catapults next to Nottingham which bomb while land troops walk in from the south towards both Nottingham and London, and an axe pillages the iron road (no horses around). Suicide one cat on Nottingham, which falls immediately. Four cats board two galleys that turn, to be dumped next to London while the land troops reorganize next turn to apply the necessary force on London. Timing might suggest using only three cats total.

3) I'm not sure accelerating everyone with tech trades for gold is the right way to go. Sure priesthood for Joao's 60 gold and phood for Ragnar's 30 gold. But do we want to give away literature without more certainty on the music race? Do we want to accelerate everyone by trading away currency for a smallish amount of gold? We might want to wait to trade currency for when we can trade for a significant tech or trade it away when we might be able to get a sizable amount from failure gold from someone who gets beaten to a wonder like when we build the Great Library or for when someone else builds the Parthenon.

I'd suggest getting Vicky's 90:gold: for Maths. Certainly we should hang onto Currency until there's something worthwhile to get. If we beeline Music, then I'm not worried about retaining Literature, and 190 more :gold: is nearly four turns' speed-up on Music. If we use Priesthood, Literature and Maths as necessary to get the AIs 370:gold: we can have Music in 10 turns.

I'm not sure whether there is some merit in having the Academy in place before the Golden Age. Certain tiles produce more stuff, and :gp: are doubled during Golden Age, but does anyone know the details?

Also, Music actually gives us a Great Artist, which we might save for a few turns before starting the Golden Age when it suits us. For example, we might not have organized our tech position suitably to get all our revolts done during the GAge. Deferring the Golden Age a bit to grow CC a bit to run more specialists for double :gp: during the GAge might be wise also.

4) we don't know what she will build in the optimistically ~11-12 turns it would take to land troops next to London. (However we would have Magellan the spy to tell us about that).

I'm guessing not too much. She's got four units defending already...

If we do the attack.
It looked like she only had that 1 iron mined. It would be nice to land an axe there to destroy that mine on the 2nd turn after the attack as well.
Also I think it makes sense to sharpen our swords on wandering barbarians and on Hittite archers so that we can have significantly promoted units to hit Vicki with. The catapults will take some time to arrange so we would have time for this if we are willing to accept that a sword could die doing it. (but this risk could be minimized if we can kill a barb archer in the open before taking on the fortified ones in Hittite).

Sure, a later war does combine with some of this sort of thing. There was an archer wandering around on Vicky's island SW of her five turns ago. We could send a trireme to find it ahead of the swordsmen galley.

We might also settle next to the ivory to provide access to York directly through the south. That would let us land the sharpen swords from Hittite next to York in a reasonable time frame. York is a more fortified city (hill and holy city so culture might be higher). But if we took York and landed an axe on the northern Iron we could take away iron from her and take London at our leisure.

Yeah, that's quite reasonable. York+lighthouse is quite useful. The larger inland water body is actually not fresh water, which is good because it means York has a lighthouse, which means the fresh water lake tiles are its food supply. London has 60% culture, and York 40%+hill. I'd think we need to plan for the axeman for the iron, at least two cats on York for bombing, with two more en route for London, and about four offensive units to plan to take out 2-3 archers in York with minimal downtime before moving on London.

Also reasonable is a three-prong move on London. Axeman to pillage the iron and walk in, four cats land on the forest to bomb (four bombardments that turn, two bombardments next turn while the other two walk onto the hill, then the final two bombardments leaving two for the suicide runs avoiding the river-crossing penalty), while axe+four swords walk from three tiles to London's SW in time to attack after the two suicide runs. This means most of our navy is heading home to pick up the next wave. London's a sure thing and we will have enough stuff left to move on York immediately.

I worldbuildered this scenario in the test game to see how it looks. I assumed no builds from Vicky, and allowing for 5 turns for fortification and correct 60% culture defence, against archer CD1+C1, archer CD1, archer and spear C1 per current status. After bombardment, a CR1 cat with/without river crossing is 29.81%/36.88% (which suggests not bothering about the river crossing if it's inconvenient), and CR1 sword is 64.74%. So, at least one suicide cat seems indicated. After one suicide cat (which does the same damage to the rest of the stack, whether or not it dies), assuming that it does enough damage to the lead archer that the next archer moves to be the prime defender, our CR1 swords are at 84.19% and 93.72% on the next two archers. So we'd certainly want to bring five attacking units. After two suicide cats (the second CR1 cat with/without river crossing is 53.80%/73.38%), swords start at 96%, so we'll probably get away with just four attacking units. Also plausible is just three cats on the forest north of London, which all bombard for two turns while the swords move in, and on the last turn we bombard one to get down to 5%, and judge whether to bombard once and suicide once, or suicide twice.

In practice, having two suicide cats and five attacking units available will provide insurance against Vicky sneaking out an axeman in the interim. So that means 3-4 cats, two axemen and four swords is the force we'd need to bring right now for near-certain success. It doesn't seem right to accept much risk, either. The insurance units for London will be units we'll need next for York, so no big deal.

If we trade for all the :gold:, then Music+Construction will take 20 turns. Then, the way to set this scenario up is to organize the 6+ axes and swords onto Vicky's island during the teching (heaps of time for an axe to walk to near the iron tile). Set up our galleys to chain out of BF through PC so that we can whip and galley-chain four catapults to the front line of the navy over four turns, and then escort two galleys and trireme to a tile near London in another four turns. Then DOW, and take three turns to capture London. Each extra galley we build probably shaves a turn off that, through lengthening the galley chain.

On the whipping issues, I really think it would be beneficial if we can get closer to maxing our overflows if possible. We can stack units in the que that are partially built, and let overflow finish them quickly. This may also delay the amount of time we have to pay maintenance on the units.

Yep, jugging build queues to save maintenance is worthwhile, unless we have a pressing need for only one type of unit. So, in the short term we can probably only do this in PC with sword and axe. Later, once we've got our opening cats, we can juggle between sword, axe, cat and maybe archer.

Maxing overflow is not a desirable objective of itself. They're just hammers. Delaying a whip so that two units build back-to-back to save :gold: on unit maintenance is a desirable objective, but the larger overflow is the mechanism to achieve the objective, not the objective itself. Delaying whipping a build that we want to use right now just to achieve maximum overflow is clearly wrong.

Looking at the save now....and I have some ideas.

Coast tiles are actually decent tiles for us now that we have the Colossus. I am going to work with the idea of using some coast tiles in strategic places for specific reasons.

PC,
If we switch off the PMine and work a coast this turn, we will grow to size 5 and still be able to 2 pop whip the sword the next turn. The benefit here is that after the whip, we never lose use of the IMine and we get a bit more overflow. The archer :hammers: will not decay, as we saw earlier, we get the warning, but they don't actually go anywhere for a while yet. Another option here is to finish the archer this turn while we grow to size 5, and then 2 pop whip the sword next turn, again, never losing the Imine.

Yeah, as I said, I agonized over this last turn. It was not possible for us to organize two swords onto a galley on T171 without compromising tile usage of PC. PC had to be whipped on T169 or T170 to achieve that, and I judged it best to whip T170. So, if we want to send two swords ASAP to CGT, then we'll need to give up one turn on the Imine. If we decide not to beeline swords to CGT, then I agree that we should proceed along the lines you suggest.

GH,
Similar to PC, if we grow to size 4 and then switch to a lighthouse for a few turns, we leave the granary at 44/90 :hammers: until we get closer to 1 of 3 goals. I played around with these ideas in my testing. 1, we wait to switch back for the 2 pop granary until we can immediately grow back to size 3 so we don't lose the gold mine for more than 1 turn. 2, we time the whip so we are almost exactly 1/2 full food bar, this is most "efficient", but costs us turns on the gold. 3, an option I don't like as well as the first 2, but still relevant maybe is to actually grow to size 5 before whipping so we never lose the gold mine.

To clarify, for those of us less experienced with the granary mechanism, the granary accumulates "virtual" food up to half the size of the current food bin (rounded down). Subsequent food are discarded. Then, upon growth that virtual food gets converted to actual food. So once the granary is full of virtual food, the food required for growth is about halved. A newly-built granary starts with zero virtual food. For example, at size 5 we need 45 food to grow. The granary has size 22, so if we have anywhere from 0-23 food when we build the granary, then it will be full by the time we grow to size 6. However, any point in time in that 0-23 range is just as good as any other. The difference is either not accumulating virtual food yet, or discarding virtual food once the granary is full - so no difference. So, if the rate of whipping is irrelevant, timing the whip of the granary so that after the whip there's

[pre]floor((30+size*3)/2)[/pre]

food in the bin gives us full use of the granary and maximum use of the tiles at the higher population before we whipped the granary.

The conflict between working good tiles and whipping a granary at the efficient time also creates windows where building a cheap lighthouse first is correct, which is why I was pushing that for MC and PC. It was probably right for GH, too, but I didn't have my spreadsheet up-to-date to prove it.

Anyway, since a 2-whip is also desirable, then switching off the granary at 44:hammers: and onto something else (e.g. lighthouse) seems good. However, Ron's three options all omit the fact that we will build the lighthouse the turn after the granary from the overflow. Every turn of delay whipping the granary costs 2:food: from the lighthouse, and that has significant long-term effects. So I think we should do option 4...

4) In two turns we'll be at 44 hammers on the granary and size 4, and we should 2-whip then to get our lighthouse ASAP.

MC,
Similar to both above, but we don't have a great 3rd tile to use, so not as critical. I would think here we just look to whip the granary so the food bar is near 1/2 full when it is complete. Interim build here could be many things.

Yes, we already have the lighthouse, so we just whip as we get near to half full. For an interim build, I suggest workboat, since we'll need at least three of these in the next little while.

BF needs to be our navy yard IMO, we can whip our galley chain here. PC already has our barracks and we can whip from 5-3, or from 6-4 here and be very efficient with our hammers.

True. Another trireme or two will be useful for exploring and warring, and so will another galley or two. After that, we'll probably want some fast cats, and courthouses before the Caste switch. Also, SM should get some turns on the fish so it is also in with a chance of whipping a courthouse after its granary.

The trade route thing is indeed a bit weird. Not sure how we get the route without the :traderoute:, but also strange that we don't have :traderoute: given that we have a clear route from the north. I'm sure 1 more turn going SW will give us more routes.

The city we do have a trade route with is Bjorgvin, next to Utrecht. We have a sailing route to it. Perhaps Ragnar has no sailing route or road route from it to his capital yet, and we are also a tile short of a sailing route to his coastal cities on the eastern side of his island.

We also want to cancel some fish deals to get :gold: for them.

I think FH should build another galley for the nascent English invasion plans, rather than its current choice of workboat (which has zero hammers committed).
 
All the above was by way of food for team thought from me thinking out loud.

I will work on a PPP that does a naval and military build-up from the east, Duckweeds a settler in CC, and infrastructure in the east. If we do decide to go for the war on Vicky after Music+Construction, then there is really not time for a CGT effort, but we should try to get a sword sharpened on an archer on Vicky's island if we see one. It'll be useful whatever we do.
 
I'm not sure whether there is some merit in having the Academy in place before the Golden Age. Certain tiles produce more stuff, and are doubled during Golden Age, but does anyone know the details?
Any tile that produces 1 or more hammers produces 1 more, and any tile that produces 1 or more commerce produces 1 more. And as you said the :gp: are doubled.

Originally Posted by bcool
4) we don't know what she will build in the optimistically ~11-12 turns it would take to land troops next to London. (However we would have Magellan the spy to tell us about that).
I'm guessing not too much. She's got four units defending already...

Vicki is in war prep mode. I don't know for sure what this actually makes the AI do, but aren't they building military units for x turns and then examining if they have built up enough military for an attack? So I'm assuming Vicki is building military units with most of her cities.

Our assault would also have to take into consideration that Vicki would likely whip out a few defenders. (A whipped axe would put a big wrench in any of the proposed plans). She would at least whip out an archer in any threatened city if we don't take it down almost immediately.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by bcool
We might also settle next to the ivory to provide access to York directly through the south. That would let us land the sharpen swords from Hittite next to York in a reasonable time frame. York is a more fortified city (hill and holy city so culture might be higher). But if we took York and landed an axe on the northern Iron we could take away iron from her and take London at our leisure.
Yeah, that's quite reasonable. York+lighthouse is quite useful. The larger inland water body is actually not fresh water, which is good because it means York has a lighthouse, which means the fresh water lake tiles are its food supply. London has 60% culture, and York 40%+hill. I'd think we need to plan for the axeman for the iron, at least two cats on York for bombing, with two more en route for London, and about four offensive units to plan to take out 2-3 archers in York with minimal downtime before moving on London.

Also reasonable is a three-prong move on London. Axeman to pillage the iron and walk in, four cats land on the forest to bomb (four bombardments that turn, two bombardments next turn while the other two walk onto the hill, then the final two bombardments leaving two for the suicide runs avoiding the river-crossing penalty), while axe+four swords walk from three tiles to London's SW in time to attack after the two suicide runs. This means most of our navy is heading home to pick up the next wave. London's a sure thing and we will have enough stuff left to move on York immediately.

I worldbuildered this scenario in the test game to see how it looks. I assumed no builds from Vicky, and allowing for 5 turns for fortification and correct 60% culture defence, against archer CD1+C1, archer CD1, archer and spear C1 per current status. After bombardment, a CR1 cat with/without river crossing is 29.81%/36.88% (which suggests not bothering about the river crossing if it's inconvenient), and CR1 sword is 64.74%. So, at least one suicide cat seems indicated. After one suicide cat (which does the same damage to the rest of the stack, whether or not it dies), assuming that it does enough damage to the lead archer that the next archer moves to be the prime defender, our CR1 swords are at 84.19% and 93.72% on the next two archers. So we'd certainly want to bring five attacking units. After two suicide cats (the second CR1 cat with/without river crossing is 53.80%/73.38%), swords start at 96%, so we'll probably get away with just four attacking units. Also plausible is just three cats on the forest north of London, which all bombard for two turns while the swords move in, and on the last turn we bombard one to get down to 5%, and judge whether to bombard once and suicide once, or suicide twice.

In practice, having two suicide cats and five attacking units available will provide insurance against Vicky sneaking out an axeman in the interim. So that means 3-4 cats, two axemen and four swords is the force we'd need to bring right now for near-certain success. It doesn't seem right to accept much risk, either. The insurance units for London will be units we'll need next for York, so no big deal.

If we trade for all the , then Music+Construction will take 20 turns. Then, the way to set this scenario up is to organize the 6+ axes and swords onto Vicky's island during the teching (heaps of time for an axe to walk to near the iron tile). Set up our galleys to chain out of BF through PC so that we can whip and galley-chain four catapults to the front line of the navy over four turns, and then escort two galleys and trireme to a tile near London in another four turns. Then DOW, and take three turns to capture London. Each extra galley we build probably shaves a turn off that, through lengthening the galley chain.

If we take ~27 turns to organize the assault, I would expect we would have to deal with the other iron she has East of York.
 
Here's some of my thinking out loud...

We really need to simulate these attacks with a better test game. I don't think we will be able to model war prep mode, but I'm thinking we build a test game with Vicky's lands and cities as they are now and give her the techs she has and hopefully give her a few turns to switch into slavery and start a few builds of her choice.

Then we set her up as she is T170, then advance the game to turn we expect to launch an attack. Then world build in the units and actually try out the various battle plans to completion. o I'm guessing we are underestimating how quickly she could build and whip units out in defense.

Especially if we wait 20+ turns she will likely have construction as well. Since that probably will become trade bait soon.
 
If we are planing on a strike on Vicky, do we still want to settle the CGT site early? I think if we are going in the Vicky direction, we should concentrate on building a more substantial force. We don't want to come up a few units short, or have no healthy defenders.

I agree with bc, since she is in war prep mode, she will be building more units for sure. For this reason, I would NOT trade her Math, no reason to speed her towards Construction.

food in the bin gives us full use of the granary and maximum use of the tiles at the higher population before we whipped the granary.
This is actually why I was thinking along the lines I was. I think we are at the point now with Colossus in place that we want to grow our pops. Especially if we are anticipating a golden age, coastal tiles are equivalent to working villages. Population is 1 of the key factors in making a GA worth while. All GA benefits are tied to pop, so more = better! :)

4) In two turns we'll be at 44 hammers on the granary and size 4, and we should 2-whip then to get our lighthouse ASAP.
This is an option for sure, I played around with some ideas, but eventually decided that to wait to grow back to size 3 the turn after the whip was the idea I liked best. I may be off in my thinking here, I didn't have time to test all of the options.
 
I haven't looked at the save lately, so I don't have any specific comments. What I *do* like is an attack on Vicky! I'm pretty keen to get the bloodshed started :mwaha:

Something I can help with:
I'm not sure whether there is some merit in having the Academy in place before the Golden Age. Certain tiles produce more stuff, and are doubled during Golden Age, but does anyone know the details?
:gp: production is +100%. Not necessairly doubled for cities with NE or Pacifism.
Any tile that produces at least 1:commerce: gets an additional 1:commerce: (ie, coast will now produce 5:commerce:. Again, it's not doubled. Edited: Fixed typo "not" = "now"
Same story for :hammers:. No bonus to food, hence it's generally smart to grow cities before the golden age, and sometimes smart to run a food deficit during the golden age if it means working more tiles/specialists.

As for the effect on the Academy: If the city is running mostly specialist scientists (for the :gp: boost) then the golden age gets little difference from the Academy. If we're working coastal or other :commerce: tiles then they do get multiplied provided our slider is converting the :commerce: to :science:.

This all assumes we even have an Academy. We might also consider that we end up with a GMerchant (thanks to Colossus) or GEngineer (there was an Engineer assigned?) out of CC.
 
Our coast will get 4:commerce: because of Colossus!
 
If we are planing on a strike on Vicky, do we still want to settle the CGT site early?

I think we have to choose one, do it, and then do the other. If we're not going to be hitting Vicky for 25-30 turns even without doing much about CGT, we can't afford to wait another 15 turns... she can research Feudalism as it is...

I agree with bc, since she is in war prep mode, she will be building more units for sure. For this reason, I would NOT trade her Math, no reason to speed her towards Construction.

Why do we care about her building catapults? Each catapult she builds is an axeman she didn't build...

This is actually why I was thinking along the lines I was. I think we are at the point now with Colossus in place that we want to grow our pops. Especially if we are anticipating a golden age, coastal tiles are equivalent to working villages. Population is 1 of the key factors in making a GA worth while. All GA benefits are tied to pop, so more = better! :)

Anybody growing their population will be quarantined from whipping, so that means we need a demarcation of which cities are building an army and which are not. We will have to whip courthouses at some point, however.

This is an option for sure, I played around with some ideas, but eventually decided that to wait to grow back to size 3 the turn after the whip was the idea I liked best. I may be off in my thinking here, I didn't have time to test all of the options.

I'll spreadsheet-test when I get some time.

I haven't looked at the save lately, so I don't have any specific comments. What I *do* like is an attack on Vicky! I'm pretty keen to get the bloodshed started :mwaha:

Something I can help with:

:gp: production is +100%. Not necessairly doubled for cities with NE or Pacifism.
Any tile that produces at least 1:commerce: gets an additional 1:commerce: (ie, coast will not produce 4:commerce:. Again, it's not doubled.
Same story for :hammers:. No bonus to food, hence it's generally smart to grow cities before the golden age, and sometimes smart to run a food deficit during the golden age if it means working more tiles/specialists.

As for the effect on the Academy: If the city is running mostly specialist scientists (for the :gp: boost) then the golden age gets little difference from the Academy. If we're working coastal or other :commerce: tiles then they do get multiplied provided our slider is converting the :commerce: to :science:.

OK, so because the :science: doesn't matter, and the slider position doesn't matter, the academy is immaterial for a Golden Age.

This all assumes we even have an Academy. We might also consider that we end up with a GMerchant (thanks to Colossus) or GEngineer (there was an Engineer assigned?) out of CC.

No engineer worked - it was assigned by the game after a growth. We have 10-12 turns until GLib, so by the time we get that GPerson it'll be about 60% scientist.
 
Anybody growing their population will be quarantined from whipping, so that means we need a demarcation of which cities are building an army and which are not. We will have to whip courthouses at some point, however.
Not necessarily...maybe just whipping at higher pops! If we whip every 15 turns, but grow every 6-8 we gain ground. Likewise if we whip sooner, but grow faster, we are still gaining pop in the long run.
 
OK, people, we need an idea of our strategic direction for the next little while. Hitting Vicky is reasonable, but it's gotta be done hard and fast before she uses much of her iron, or gets Feudalism. I do not think we have time to mess around with CGT before that, because it occupies a trireme and galley and that costs us at least a turn in kicking off the main attack because the galley chain is shorter.

There's no point me producing a PPP before we agree on strategic direction.

Here are some options I suggest. We need people to speak up about what they think is right, with variations as necessary. Please do suggest a new option if you think something else is best.

  1. Ignore CGT and gear up for maximum war on Vicky, taking London fast. Tech Music then Construction. Save the Great Artist for once we've grown the population a bit. Spy with Magellan. Spend the time while teching up to Construction putting a maximally-large force of axes and swords onto Vicky's land mass that will walk overland to London from the SW. Lurk an axe near any connected iron to disconnect it ASAP at kickoff time. Organize PC and BF to whip out at least four catapults ASAP after Construction, and our galleys and triremes to galley-chain those catapults for a landing probably north of London. Farm some XP out of Vicky's barbs while waiting.
  2. As for 1), but settle near Vicky's Ivory and hit York first
  3. As for 1), but take and settle CGT first
  4. Ignore Vicky for the moment, take and settle the CGT site ASAP, expanding peacefully but with a view to killing someone with maces and trebs soon. Trade away our metals to get some warrior MPs.

In any of the above, I think we save the Great Artist until we can anticipate having CoL and/or religion+Philo and our populations have grown a bit, to get highest value from the Golden Age.

I like either option 1) or 4), but prefer 1) over 4).
 
I prefer 4) at the moment. I think we are overestimating how effective we will be by the time we are in a position to hit Vicky.

I'm sorry I didn't have time to make the test game I was proposing to demonstrate that hitting Vicky hard and fast would be more difficult than we are imagining. The map I made for the proposed new test game could be modified for this test relatively easily. I might have time in ~20 hours to play around with that if other people think it would be useful.
 
I hope to learn more from my test games, but if we did go to war I would want to skip music and just go for construction.

Re: Music for the great artist just to run a GA

Yes it is nice but raw bonus hammers and commerce from the GA rarely pays for the research of music itself even if you factor in the saved turns from switching during the GA. If you factor in the trades that you could make with Music then yes it is a nice play.

However if we are going to war I think time is of the essence, so I would go straight for construction assuming that we could conceivable whip out enough non-catapults by the time we get construction.

Obviously simulating the various outcomes is something to simulate if possible.

This belief that we need construction for a productive war and would probably lose the music race is one reason that I favor option 4. I also think we could conceivably trade for construction with music, but this isn't something we could depend on for war plans. Delaying the war for maceman/catapults (or trebs) would likely allow us to trade for construction at our leisure.
 
My option would be for 1)

I am generally more in favour of an early war. I understand the protests that it could fall flat and ultimately prove to be a longer course of action than a Cannon/Galleon approach, but that's a risk. There is also a chance things go swimmingly and Cannons/Galleons are complete overkill: an easy, non-risky victory when perhaps other teams took the more direct route.

I'm also not convinced of the benefit of Music before Construction. The sooner we hit Vicky, the less time she has to defend herself, and also less time for her to spawn new cities.
 
I would favor option 1 right now.

I would also favor skipping Music in favor of early Construction.

If we get lucky and no one is close to Music after we get Construction, then it is still an option.
 
bc is quite right about the payoff from the Golden Age. Music is 1404:science:. To get a baseline for the value of the Golden Age, right now we're working 10 non-city tiles that return 2+:hammers:, 17 tiles that return 2+:commerce: and getting 6:gp:. Having just tested, we also get +1:hammers: +1:commerce: in each of our nine city tiles. So our minimum return from 10 turns of a Golden Age is 190:hammers:260:commerce:60:gp:. If we magically doubled our population, then we'd still be behind the game until we got decent trading value for Music or gained a turn or two from free civics changes.
 
OK so if we traded for all the :gold: that is out there, except Vicky (because for some reason nobody's explained some people don't want her to have Maths...) we can get Construction in 6 turns. About 8 turns after that we can have four cats and be ready to DOW. We'd probably not have to worry about the second iron in that time frame - she needs to choose to do it, spend 1 turn moving onto a hill, 3+3 turns on roads, and probably 6 turns on the mine. We'd have to take the axe from FH and use the current pile of overflow to get another sword. Hopefully that axe can get sent to disconnect the iron mine. We'd have to take the sword and archer from PC, and get out about another four swords from PC and BF leaving enough population to get the four cats out after that.

Just taking London and not having an immediate follow-up plan is acceptable, IMO. London will have a pile of decent tiles to work, no culture pressure from anywhere, and will be perfectly defensible if we keep a raiding force on the other iron.

I'll set up my spreadsheets and see if I can achieve the necessary production.
 
bc is quite right about the payoff from the Golden Age. Music is 1404. To get a baseline for the value of the Golden Age, right now we're working 10 non-city tiles that return 2+, 17 tiles that return 2+ and getting 6. Having just tested, we also get +1 +1 in each of our nine city tiles. So our minimum return from 10 turns of a Golden Age is 19026060. If we magically doubled our population, then we'd still be behind the game until we got decent trading value for Music or gained a turn or two from free civics changes.

I think that is quite a low estimate. By the time we trigger the Golden Age we would have the Great Library I would think. That adds 8 :gp: a turn. or 80 more than you estimated. Those :gp: at least equate to 3 :science: per 1 :gp:. Plus I would expect we could run at least 2 scientists in the capital for 6 more :gp: per turn. That's another 60 :gp: That is a total of an additional 140 :gp: over the course of the Golden age.

Also music is listed at 1404, but you must factor in the 20% prereq discount right? So it is really 1170 invested science for us. With the minimum of 200 :gp: 190 :hammers: and 260 :commerce: you estimated Music's GA pays almost pays for itself. (~600 :science: from :gp: + ~450 :science: from commerce and hammers) So 1170 cost compared to 1050 gain.

Then factor in what we would save by avoiding the 2? turns of anarchy when we switch to Caste system and I think we are a bit ahead by researching music and using the GA for a golden age.
 
OK so if we traded for all the :gold: that is out there, except Vicky (because for some reason nobody's explained some people don't want her to have Maths...) we can get Construction in 6 turns. About 8 turns after that we can have four cats and be ready to DOW. We'd probably not have to worry about the second iron in that time frame - she needs to choose to do it, spend 1 turn moving onto a hill, 3+3 turns on roads, and probably 6 turns on the mine. We'd have to take the axe from FH and use the current pile of overflow to get another sword. Hopefully that axe can get sent to disconnect the iron mine. We'd have to take the sword and archer from PC, and get out about another four swords from PC and BF leaving enough population to get the four cats out after that.

Just taking London and not having an immediate follow-up plan is acceptable, IMO. London will have a pile of decent tiles to work, no culture pressure from anywhere, and will be perfectly defensible if we keep a raiding force on the other iron.

I'll set up my spreadsheets and see if I can achieve the necessary production.
This all looks really great to me. I for one see no problem trading Maths to Vicky if we get a good pile of gold out of it
 
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