SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

[shyuhe]

Ras, Dhoom, and mdy had a number of test saves but I don't know what the PPP's for any of them are. My run(s) sucked.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Good work with the mini-turnset! We now know not to speculate about a potential third Seafood Resource around the Marble island. We also have found another path to the west and thus have saved a couple of turns in terms of westward exploration!

Next Steps for the WB Explorers

T70
wb-gold-nw mv N-S (almost certainly dead-end), else NW
wb-gold-s, if wb-nw dead-end, mv E-SE, else W-E

Now that the first of these two Work Boats has found a passage to the SW of Gold island and is the "further west" of the two Work Boats, will we be using this western-most WB Explorer for our push westward, while the WB Explorer that is currently to the SE of Gold island will be used for netting Gold island's Fish Resource?

wb-e mv NW, defogs 2clam site, then eastward, Vickie-ward

How far to the northwest do we plan to go? The test saved game had multiple dot map options for the Silk + Desert island, so it was hard to tell which option we intend to use.

Out of the possible options that I see, only one of them would block us from settling a second City on Desert + Silk island (the red dot in my image, which is the northern-most dot, 1E of the Plains Hills square, for those of you who may be partially colour blind).

I suggest that as long as we want to pick one of three southern settling locations (which I think are better anyway, since we'd get 1 or 2 Clams within our initial 9-square radius), then we should immediately head east with our eastern-most Work Boat.

Otherwise, if we plan to settle such that we'd only be able to fit one City on the Desert + Silk island, i.e by settling on that northern-most red dot, we should explore around the Silk now, to see if doing so would mess up another potential City location by the Silk (i.e. check we should for Seafood Resources up by the Silk now).

My preference is to go directly east, since the northern-most settling location only really gains us a flatland Grassland square and, in my opinion, won't be as good as settling a location that allows us to net a Clam on the turn that this City gets founded.



Research Slider

T72
0% research

In this case it doesn't really matter, since we're pretty much agreed on Writing (with being able to squeeze in Hunting first with plenty of time to do so), but in future when we play these mini-turnsets, perhaps we should consider setting our Research Slider to 0% on the first turn of the turnset, to keep our options open.

As I said, it does not matter in this case, so it is not a criticism, but just a potential idea to keep in mind for the future.


A Question about the Submission Graphs
Oh, it was mentioned (I think by LC) that the Ducks did not go for Writing. How do we know that? Note that this question comes from someone who is not very good at interpreting the submission graph data, so I'm not even sure if we'd get this info from the Power Graph or the Score Graph.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

OK. So nothing major has changed. We have one proposal on the table from LC (post 793):

Oracle/MC in Gold City T105 1375BC (1400BC game log)

Research: hunting-writing-myst-masonry-medit-priest (poly instead of medit 1t later)

Perhaps the PPP should go up until we learn Mysticism, at which point more people might be willing to play the then-updated test game forwards to see if we'd rather Lightbulb Philosophy or skip Philosophy?

Note that this date may or may not fall a turn earlier than in the test saved game if we get Foreign Intercontinental Trade Routes before then.

This idea seems logical, but to be honest, I think that the actual pausing point should come when the first of two things happens:
1. We learn Mysticism
OR
2. We are about to complete Settler 3 and we need to figure out where to position our Galley to best pick it up (going to Fur? going elsewhere?)


Looking at LC's test saved game, assuming that we go with his suggestion of generating two Great Scientists in the capital, and assuming that we do not fire either of the currently-hired 2 Scientists during any of the interim turns, that means that we will get:
Great Person #1 on Turn 122, 950 BC (Turn 105 + 17 turns = Turn 122)
Great Person #2 on Turn 172, 20 BC (Turn 105 + 17 turns + 50 turns = Turn 172)

However, we will need to manually research Compass, Machinery, and Optics, in addition to a host of other techs, such as:
Animal Husbandry (that's what we're researching in his test saved game, anyway), Alphabet (to hopefully get Math for free), Currency, and possibly other techs.

Can we do it in time? I guess that someone will have to play out his test game to find out.


The Lightbulb-Philosophy approach would PROBABLY work best with Cities where we could hire a lot of Specialists, so that we'd have the option of using Caste System. Losing Gold City as a possible Great Person Farm definitely calls into question the value of Pacifism + Caste System, since it's one of our best more-than-2-Specialist Great Person Farms.

So, it seems to me that we will probably be "automatically" deciding to go for the 2-Great-Scientist-no-Pacifism option if we put the Oracle in Gold City. It's not a bad plan, but we just have to realise that we'll very shortly be committing to the non-Pacifism approach. There should be no misunderstandings later about wanting to switch tracks before play proceeds.

As I suggest above, probably the last point that we can consider changing the plan is when the first of "learning Mysticism" or "getting Galley 1 in place to pick up Settler 3" occurs.


I'm not sure if I'll be able to fit in time for further testing, but I will try.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Micromanagement question: building the Lighthouse before Settler 3

So, what's the best way to do so?

Should we switch the Corn to a GH Mine while we're still at City Size 4 for a turn?

Should we switch the Corn to either a Grassland Cottage or a non-Lighthouse-Coast while at City Size 5 for a turn?

Should we "work" a 3-Food Corn when we grow into Unhappiness (that's essentially what happens since the 6th citizen "eats" 2 Food when not building a Settler) but while no longer having Unhealthiness (thanks to netting the Fish) at City Size 6?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Micromanagement question: building the Lighthouse before Settler 3

So, what's the best way to do so?

To help answer the question, here are our main options and the resulting Total Food, Total Hammers, and additional Flasks as of Turn 80, 2000 BC--a turn on which we are at Size 6 in every scenario.

Trial Name: Food on Turn 80, Hammers on Turn 80, Extra Flasks on Turn 80
A) Corn -> GH Mine on Turn 72: 24 F, 22 H (22 H added to the Work Boat), 0 Fl
B) Corn -> GH Mine on Turn 73: 22 F, 28 H (11 H added to the Work Boat, 17 H in the Settler), 0 Fl
C) Corn -> GH Mine on Turn 74: 29 F, 25 H (8 H added to the Work Boat, 17 H in the Settler), 0 Fl
D) Grow to Size 6 -> Lighthouse: 28 F, 22 H in the Settler, 0 Fl
E) Corn -> Cottage on Turn 77*: 28 F, 22 H in the Settler, 1 Fl, 1 turn of Cottage growth
F) Corn -> Coast on Turn 77*: 27 F, 22 H in the Settler, 3 Fl (we get an extra Flask for passing a Research breakpoint)
EDIT: G) Grow to within 1 turn of Size 6 -> Build a Settler while at Size 5 on Turn 77 -> Switch to building (but not completing) the Lighthouse on Turn 79: 24 F, 27 H (30 H in the Settler but short 3 base Hammers = short 6 final Hammers in the Lighthouse), 0 Fl

* Switch the Cottage or the Coast back to the Corn on Turn 78 so that we can grow to Size 6 at the same time as completing the Lighthouse with as much excess Food as possible.


Analysis
Scenarios A) and B) suck, as they only give us 24 + 22 = 46 and 22 + 28 = 50 total Food plus Hammers, respectively.

Scenario C) is better than both of them, in that it gives us 29 + 25 = 54 total Food plus Hammers.

EDIT: Scenario G) gives us 24 + 27 = 51 total Food plus Hammers. That's certainly worse than what we get with Scenario C).

In fact, we will fall another 4 Food behind Scenario C) due to not working a Lighthouse on Turn 80 nor again on Turn 81, so really, Scenario C) comes ahead of Scenario G) by: 54 - 51 = 3 + 4 = 7 total Food plus Hammers, making it the second worst Scenario to follow.

Scenario D), where we essentially "do nothing," isn't amazing either, in that it gives us 28 + 22 = 50 total Food plus Hammers.

Relative to Scenario D), scenarios E) and F) are better, in that they either get +1 Flask with 1 turn of Cottage growth or -1 Food and +3 Flasks, respectively. However, both of these scenarios fall behind Scenario C), since:
Scenario C) = 29 + 25 + 0 = 54 total Food + Hammers + extra Flasks
Scenario E) = 28 + 22 + 1 = 51 total Food + Hammers + extra Flasks
Scenario F) = 27 + 22 + 3 = 52 total Food + Hammers + extra Flasks


Now, even if you want to value Flasks as being better than Food + Hammers (which is not likely at this early stage of the game), but say that you did, you might be tempted to pick Scenario F).

However, what's interesting is that when we 3-pop-whip down to Size 3, we will need 39 Food to grow back to Size 4. At that time, we will certainly be working 2 Clams plus the Corn, which gives us a total of 11 surplus Food.

Scenario C) 29 F + 11 F = 40/39 F = growth to Size 4 in 1 turn when building the build item that comes after Settler 3
Scenario E) 28 F + 11 F = 39/39 F = growth to Size 4 in 1 turn when building the build item that comes after Settler 3
Scenario F) 27 F + 11 F = 38/39 F = not enough Food to grow to Size 4 in 1 turn when building the item that comes after Settler 3

Thus, Scenario C) definitely comes out as the winner.

EDIT: Scenario G) 24 F + 11 F = 35/39 F = not enough Food to grow to Size 4 in 1 turn when building the build item that comes after Settler 3 (which, in this case, is the Lighthouse). So, Scenario G) loses 1 turn worth of working a GH Mine in the future, putting it even further behind Scenario C).


So, we only need to remember to switch the Corn to the GH Mine on Turn 74 and we're golden. Incidentally, the City will still grow to Size 5 on this turn regardless of whether we work the Corn or the GH Mine, which I think, combined with the earlier Lighthouse, plus the lack of building a non-Settler build item when we are at Size 6, is how we end up coming ahead of the "do nothing" Scenario D) by 4 total Food + Hammers.


The only potential downside to Scenario C) is that 8 of our Hammers were invested in the Work Boat instead of directly into Settler 3. However, Settler 3 can still be 3-pop-whipped as early as Turn 80, 2000 BC.

If we plan to overflow Settler 3's Hammers into the Work Boat, then we're fine. I guess it might matter if the build item after Settler 3 were supposed to be something else, such as if we plan to overflow the Hammers into a Library or something--I can't really tell from LC's message #798 what build item he plans to overflow the Hammers into.

Having more Hammers in the Work Boat instead of the Settler might also affect the precise amount of overflow Hammers available when 3-pop-whipping Settler 3, if we were to try to maximize the overflow Hammers possible, but it sounds like LC whips when we have 17 Hammers invested in Settler 3 (at least in his "Oracle in Paris" run--I can't be sure about his "Oracle in Gold City" run), which means that he doesn't care about maximizing Hammer overflow and it also means that he's probably already following Scenario C).

So, maybe I just wasted my time in terms of trying to improve upon his approach (or else I at least validated that for this micromanagement decision, his approach is a good one ). Hopefully, someone benefited from the analysis.

 

[mdy]

The Lightbulb-Philosophy approach would PROBABLY work best with Cities where we could hire a lot of Specialists, so that we'd have the option of using Caste System. Losing Gold City as a possible Great Person Farm definitely calls into question the value of Pacifism + Caste System, since it's one of our best more-than-2-Specialist Great Person Farms.

So, it seems to me that we will probably be "automatically" deciding to go for the 2-Great-Scientist-no-Pacifism option if we put the Oracle in Gold City. It's not a bad plan, but we just have to realise that we'll very shortly be committing to the non-Pacifism approach. There should be no misunderstandings later about wanting to switch tracks before play proceeds.

As I suggest above, probably the last point that we can consider changing the plan is when the first of "learning Mysticism" or "getting Galley 1 in place to pick up Settler 3" occurs.

This is the main reason why I want to build the Oracle in marble, though assuming our third city is there I think the point of no return is just after we discover priesthood, so we probably have a little more time to decide.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Actually, Dhoom, you have to do it all over again... I was switching a clam to gh on T74...

I never even tried corn instead of clam. Not sure why, but either I didn't thnk of it or I automatically preferred 1 to 2. Nice of you to crunch the number though.

In general, I'm overflowing the hammers into whatever is available techwise, based on the priorities I set, which are:

1. Fur wb
2. Gold wb2
3. Library
4. Monument

It's not that I don't care about maximizing settler OF, it's that I'm seeking a balance between making hte galley available to transport the worker and maximizing the OF. In this case, I needed to transport the worker from Gold to Fur a turn sooner to not finish the Gold chop a turn too late. If we decide to go Polytheism instead of Meditation, then we have another worker-turn available and we could add 17h to the OF. That would of course delay the +1 fur happiness 1t. (All of this plays a role, when you actually test things out. )

--------------

Dhoom, there's no hard-and-fast rule on "setting our Research Slider to 0% on the first turn of the turnset, to keep our options open." Sometimes yes, sometimes no. In this case, my tests tell me exactly how much to set it to 0%. This affects when Writing gets done, for example.

 

[LowtherCastle]

This is the main reason why I want to build the Oracle in marble, though assuming our third city is there I think the point of no return is just after we discover priesthood, so we probably have a little more time to decide.

Actually, I think Dhoom is kind of right, simply because if we're going to build the Oracle in Marble, it has to be City #3 (before Furs City).

I must say that I have a problem with the whole Philo discussion -- it hasn't been tested out, not even once, that I've seen. In theory, it sounds great, but how does it play out in practice? Do we really get our cities developed enough? Is it really faster? Do all those turns of anarchy slow it down too much?

For that matter, maybe all-out REX is the best solution and skip the Oracle altogether. Build the Pyramids instead and combine that with a late Philo push. It's hard to know without at least trying it.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Actually, Dhoom, you have to do it all over again... I was switching a clam to gh on T74...

I never even tried corn instead of clam. Not sure why, but either I didn't thnk of it or I automatically preferred 1 to 2. Nice of you to crunch the number though.

Hmmm, I see the "" and the "" but I'm not really sure how much you are joking about having to do it all over again!

I just confirmed that your 1 extra Food from working the Corn instead of working a Netted Clam does not allow us to grow to Size 5 any faster, nor does it allow us to grow to Size 6 any faster, nor does it (as I already showed) allow us to regrow from whipped-Size-3 to Size 4 any faster. I'm not going to check any further than that.

So, that 1 Food MAY help somewhere down the road, but it's far enough off that you might as well take the 2 Commerce instead of 1 Food, right?

Even if you're sticking with your method (at least let me know which option you plan to choose--working the Clam or working the Corn for that 1 turn--so that I can do the same in my testing), then it probably doesn't matter, since switching EITHER a Netted Clam or the Corn to the GH Mine on Turn 74 seems to give us good efficiency compared to other timings of building the Lighthouse.

In this case, my tests tell me exactly how much to set it to 0%. This affects when Writing gets done, for example.

Okay, do you mind elaborating a bit on which turns you plan to set the research slider to which value?

For example, we get an interesting situation when we settle Gold City for a few turns while Gold City is at City Size 1: we are making exactly 20 Commerce.

As such, we can set the Science Slider to any percentage without losing any Commerce due to BtS' fractional calculations.

So, for a few turns there, an opportunity exists to potentially make a better rate of return on our Flasks due to meeting certain bonus Flask breakpoints.

If you gave me a plan of only your Science Slider values, say, for the first 10 turns of play, as well as a target date on which you absoluately want us to learn Writing (say, when you need to start building a Library), then I could see if I could work out a way to gain us a few free Flasks.

We are still at at early enough stage in the game for a few free Flasks to potentially matter. I wouldn't want to do so for the rest of the turnset, where it's going to be easiest just to run Binary Science and not care, particularly when a Library gets thrown into the mix, but before then, why not squeeze out what efficiency we possibly can?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I must say that I have a problem with the whole Philo discussion -- it hasn't been tested out, not even once, that I've seen. In theory, it sounds great, but how does it play out in practice? Do we really get our cities developed enough? Is it really faster? Do all those turns of anarchy slow it down too much?

I have finally had a chance to look at everyone's saved games. There are some interesting plays with a late Oracle, whether it be for Machinery or Philosophy. If we're not willing to risk a late Oracle, though, then our options are quite limited.

In that sense, I think that I am willing to follow LC's Gold -> Fur -> Marble approach.

His plan is a good path, it should still get us Astronomy around the same time that a Philosophy approach would (sure, we'd probably have Code of Laws and Philosophy in addition to Astronomy with a Philosophy approach, but without a late-Oracle as an option on the table, it's tough to make that plan work efficiently), and his plan does keep us flexible in terms of what we can research after Priesthood.

Spoilered, you can find my "essay" on how I came to these conclusions.

Spoiler :

Several saves show that building the Oracle in the capital is an option.

However, many of those games are low in Happiness.

So, I appreciate the idea that, at least early on, it's going to be a lot easier to run Scientists in the capital, because:
a) We have a Warrior there for Happiness purposes
AND
b) We have a Palace there for extra Happiness
AND
c) We have some established infrastructure

I do like the idea of working the Fur early on for that extra bit of Happiness.


Then there's the whole "do we settle on the Marble or next to it" decision. On it seems to make for a 3-Hammer-per-turn City, so slow-building the Oracle there doesn't seem to be all that viable of an option, meaning that if we want to build the Oracle in the Marble City, we're probably best settling next to the Marble.

But then, it takes us a while to get the Marble improved and for us to learn Priesthood. I really feel that I want to delay Writing just to be able to build the Oracle here. That means, though, delaying our Libraries in other Cities, and possibly not getting Foreign Trade Routes for a while--I say "possibly" since, if we don't find Vicky soon, we might not get them even WITH Writing. To be honest, Foreign Trade Routes aren't all that big of a deal for now... +3 Commerce instead of Domestic +2 Commerce.

Getting the earlier positive Diplo modifier for Open Borders probably doesn't matter too much, either, for a Conquest/Domination game.

We'll probably even help the AIs tech faster by giving them Open Borders sooner (say that Vicky settles on the same landmass that she started on, then she'll go from +1 Commerce to +3 Commerce per Trade Route).

But, then, in order for us to make up for the delay in getting a Library, we almost have to do something like Oracle Philosophy, otherwise how do we make up for the lost turns not spent generating GPP?


So, then we're back to "probably researching Writing first," which means getting a slow Oracle if we don't build the Oracle in either Gold City or the capital.

Building the Oracle in either one does make it a whole lot harder to really justify Philosophy.


Thus, I guess what I am saying is that since it's probably safe to build the Oracle earlier than not at all, and in so doing we pretty much have to put it in either the capital or Gold City, then what the heck, why not put it in Gold City?

It does give us a nice border expansion, while the capital is in a better position to start on a Library earlier (and thus on generating a Great Scientist earlier).


Still, it does beg the question as to whether we should consider building Marble City as our 3rd City and placing it to the SW of the Marble instead of on the Marble. We do get 2 so-so Cities this way, in that one will be Clam + Marble (which is a 1 Food, 3 Hammers, 2 Commerce square), while the other will be Clam + GH Mine.

But, it takes a good number of turns for us to develop the Marble, as we are researching Writing instead of Mysticism -> Masonry.

So, then, going for a City where we can improve it faster (Stone, even Pig + Magical Fish with a Netted Fish and a lot of whipping, or Fur all being options) seems to be a decent approach to follow. But, in so doing, we pretty much have to settle Marble City on the Marble if we want an early Oracle.


Out of those other options for a 3rd City, I suppose that is nice that Fur City can actually work 2 improved squares reasonably quickly, whereas the other choices won't be able to do so (no Animal Husbandry for the Pig, while Stone City will grow so slowly that it won't be able to have a 2nd citizen for a while). I mean, if we are going to build Marble City as our 4th City such that it will be "handicapped" anyway... i.e. it will not have an improved square to work until after it builds itself a Monument and waits for a long time... then it doesn't really matter that Marble City will suck for a while, as the only way to not make it suck for a while is to build it as our third City or to accept a late date on the Oracle.


And although I could equally make the claim that I don't think that anyone has played out a 2-Great-Scientist game until we need to Lightbulb Astronomy, I'm not going to put that kind of pressure on anyone, since it really isn't that much fun to play the game out to so far when you're just starting with 1 City.

I mean, there are so many things that we can choose to do differently, with so many settling options, and we might even end up changing our minds about getting Astronomy (I'm sold on the idea but maybe others aren't).

There's a good reason why people were stopping their games after building the Oracle--there are just a lot of unknowns and it's really hard to play out the game to around 1 AD if you feel that your whole test run might get scrapped or ignored... and it might just get ignored because you had a number of inefficiencies, but you end up not being able to make the test run really efficient because there's only so much efficiency that you can build into a test run when you play one for so long and then after a while either you feel that you have to just play it out without too much thinking towards efficiency or you feel like your head is going to explode!

For that matter, maybe all-out REX is the best solution and skip the Oracle altogether. Build the Pyramids instead and combine that with a late Philo push. It's hard to know without at least trying it.

Maybe. But, with an Oracle built in either the capital or Gold City, we tend to get an earlier Oracle, which improves our chances of getting it, and more importantly, we don't have to worry about having a bad City 3 as our Marble City, should the Oracle be built by an AI extremely early.

In other words, it won't hurt us too much if the Oracle is built by an AI when we're trying to build it in either the capital or in Gold City.

Also, while The Pyramids are tempting, general wisdom is that you'll use them for Representation. I, personally, like them for Police State, but honestly, we might be far better off just building a stack of Military Units.

At least that way, we will have the flexibility of trying to grab a Wonder or an additional Happiness Resource or even just razing all of one AI's Cities and making our Conquest go faster.

The Oracle's cost is quite low for what we will get for it, even by building it early on, particularly when we make Marble City our 4th City instead of our 3rd City, such that we'll still have 3 decent Cities set up.


I'm really not convinced that this map is a great one for Representation. I am even less convinced that we can justify the production investment to build The Pyramids. I WOULD like to target capturing The Pyramids at some point, should an AI kindly build it for us. I mean, we could even be really sneaky and do something like:
- Beeline Alphabet after Priesthood (if we're Oracling Metal Casting and if we aren't going for Philosophy, other than a possible detour to Animal Husbandry, it seems like a good choice as our next tech)
- Even if Vicky won't trade with us, we can trade with HER, gifting her Masonry and STONE
- Maybe she'll build us a Wonder


Then there's the whole "if we can possibly capture The Great Lighthouse, then we're so up for doing it" approach... yes, it's probably on some far-off continent that we won't be able to reach until after Astronomy, but even then, we figure that we can get Astronomy reasonably early with just 2 Great Scientists, right?

I mean, the whole THEORY behind the Philosophy approach was that we'd probably have about the same amount of techs to research but would also have Code of Laws and Philosophy under our belts. It's nice to be up a couple of techs, but the only feasible ways of doing so seem to be:
a) Risking a later Oracle date
OR
b) Skipping Writing for now, but even then not getting a really early Oracle
OR
c) Doing something that we didn't discuss, which is risk getting a Great Prophet instead of a Great Scientist (which is not a plan that I really want to follow)

While option a) probably seems like the best out of those choices, I think that a good portion of the team is concerned about the risk of missing the Oracle altogether, which makes me feel like we probably won't agree on following any of those approaches.


So, I guess I'll be fine with skipping Philosophy, since the intent wasn't that we'd really be that much AHEAD with it, just "about at the same place," but with a couple of Religions and Religious techs under our belts. Sure, those things would be nice to have, but the tradeoff of getting a late Oracle date doesn't seem to be in the cards, so in order to pull it off properly, we're looking at a real struggle just to make it happen... thus, I'm fine with passing on Philosophy.

An early Code of Laws, if we don't see ourselves justifying building many Courthouses, doesn't do all that much for us, either.

Sure, +1 Happiness for a Religion is nice, but maybe +1 Happiness from capturing an AI's City earlier would be just as nice, without totally screwing up the Diplo game like Religion would. It would be REALLY NICE if we could have the option to bribe an AI or two into wars with each other. We might not exercise this option, but getting a Religion and making it our State Religion will almost certainly spoil this possibility.

 

[LowtherCastle]

@Dhoom
1. I'd swap the corn with the mine, I think. The extra 2 coins might make it possible to get writing a turn earlier. It's borderline as it is.
2. I'd have to flesh out the PPP to give you the exact research slider shifts. I think it's 0% for 2t while we have -1gpt for supply costs. Then 0% for 2t when we finish writing. BUt there might be an optimization to get PH a turn sooner that I haven't studied yet. Then there's the question of Poly or Medit. That's the REAL decision point in the 2-GS or Philo debate, because we do want to go CoL-CS eventually.

I still don't see GOld+Oracle as ruling out the Philo path. We have these possible GP Farms:

                    minimum       req'd   total
      max  max      req'd         pop     turns
City  food #sci pop infra         whipd   req'd
----  ---- ---- --- ------------  -----   -----
Paris +11f  5    8  lib             3
Gold  +10f  5    9  lh/gran/lib     4      ?
Pigs  +10f  5    7  gran/lh         3      32t (38t w/library) 
Marb   +8f  4    6  monu/lh/gran    3      ?
2Clam  +8f  4    6  lh/gran         3      ?

It's a balancing act. THe Philo path is not necessarily as simple as the pictures you guys have painted, because there's also possible warring against Vickie (we need a 10XP unit for HE, either by experience or attaching a 20XP-GG), which requires some military production. Where will we produce those units? Most likely we'll poprush them somewhere. Most likely wherever we build our forge first. Most likely Paris and/or Gold, along with a little help from Stone perhaps. But poprushing a forge and units again lowers the population back down and delays GP Farming.

So the overall balance for a good philo run could easily be using Gold for early mobilization and Paris+Pigs+Marble for GPs.

Don't forget that Gold CIty requires +9 to run 5sci, including any whip unhappiness.

.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Demo screen update

bbp's last report

AI_CRE built 2nd city T59, grew to pop2 on T66
AI_GLH built 2nd city T63, grew to pop2 on T71 hence, it didn't found Hinduism
AI_UNK1 built 2nd city T67 and founded Hinduism in it T68.
AI_UNK2 hasn't built a city
AI_VIC hasn't built a city
AI_ISO built 2nd city T71 and has bronzeworking At most one other AI has it.

Izzy founded Buddhism, maybe Hinduism also, maybe not.
Buddhism is in a pop5 city and hasn't spread. Not close to any other AI???
Hindusim is in a pop1 city and hasn't spread.

-------------------------

Does any of this confirm mdy's contention that Oracle will be built more slowly on this map? My main concern would be Izzy, the GLH AI, and any industrious AI. It seems likely that the GLH AI did not found Hinduism, so maybe hasn't researched Mysticism yet.

mdy's philo plan, with the Oracle in Marble looks pretty good. Note that we'd also have to get Alpha+Math before we could bulb Optics. Math might come in trade, we'd probably have to research Alpha. Furthermore, researching Alpha and CoL kind of conflict with each other. Alpha gives us IW+Math in trade sooner, but delays the Philo bulb. Not sure if that's an issue, though, because I doubt we'd revolt to CS+Pacifism before about 500BC anyway, which is still workable.

The question on this would be, can we get Oracle in Marble by 1300BC, as mdy suggests, without hurting our REX too much?

 

[LowtherCastle]

Or should we consider Dhoom's idea of running a GA if the Gold/Oracle GP is a Prophet? After Gold has a library and a forge it can produce 11gppt, which might produce the second GP soon enough to precede our revolt to CS.

 

[mdy]

It's a balancing act. THe Philo path is not necessarily as simple as the pictures you guys have painted, because there's also possible warring against Vickie (we need a 10XP unit for HE, either by experience or attaching a 20XP-GG)

The chances of us getting literature before astro are effectively 0, so I think we can forget the heroic epic as a factor.

So the overall balance for a good philo run could easily be using Gold for early mobilization and Paris+Pigs+Marble for GPs.

We might be able to use marble to replace Gold if we decided to settle directly on it, but this would mean focusing marble on being able to run 2 scientists ASAP. I would prefer not to do this as it would allow us to skip the library and use this city to support our rex.

Or should we consider Dhoom's idea of running a GA if the Gold/Oracle GP is a Prophet? After Gold has a library and a forge it can produce 11gppt, which might produce the second GP soon enough to precede our revolt to CS.

This idea has some merit, however the real attraction of the many GP plan to me is that it would allow us to go to war after astronomy with maces not swords. I doubt a golden age would accomplish this.

I did play a very quick game out to around 350 BC to get a feel of how a many GP game might go. I will post my observations in a few hours when I have more time.

 

[LowtherCastle]

@mdy
1. Literature would definitely be after Astro and Civil Service, but could come soon after. HE+Bureau+forge(+Moai) would crank out a lot of maces.
2. The purpose of the golden age would be to avoid the 3t of anarchy and 100% GP multiplier. It's not ideal, but it's a back-up plan for Gold producing a GProphet. So it leads to the same purpose of Astro+maces.
3. The one aspect of my Gold/Oracle I dislike is stunting Gold's development. I'd rather build the Oracle in Marble, but I'm not sure how to do it without stunting our overall REX (or delaying the Paris library).

 

[mdy]

1. Literature would definitely be after Astro and Civil Service, but could come soon after. HE+Bureau+forge(+Moai) would crank out a lot of maces.

What techs do you think we would need to research after CS? My big concern with the 2GP plan has always been that we would still have so much research to do after astro that it would severely limit the amount of fighting we could do, especially as we would be doing it with obsolete units.

Observation on a game played out to 380BC with a machinery sling, played to maximise GP's.

1)If we didn't Oracle philosophy we would need to bulb it fairly soon for the religion(for border pops/happies)/pacifism.

2) The AI's tech must slower than I thought they would. The only useful techs (before this time) that I was able to trade were maths, ironworking, hunting, and animal husbandry. Waiting for maths to become available to trade was a big mistake as it delayed philosophy for too long, and the lack of animal husbandry stunted pigs/fish development. If we decide to settle furs/copper early as well we may not be able to trade for anything except poytheism/monarchy as in our game the AI's tech progress is likely to be even slower. This means while we could probably get CS by 1AD engineering is out of the question.

3) We would probably want to settle pigs fish as the fourth/fifth city and research animal husbandry early if we want to build a lot of infrastructure there and get it ready to be a GP farm.

4) Extra WB's for gold city need to be prioritised more than I did if we want to whip any more significant infrastructure there.

5) Barb galleys were much less of a problem than expected. I only ever saw one.

6) If we wanted to build the pyramids in stone city it would need a border pop fairly soon, so ideally we would found it as city four and hope a religion gets founded there.

7) We would need to revolt to CS around 500BC.

8) We can rex to all known available "reasonable" city sites, though obvioulsy the development of the newer cities is significantly ******ed compared to the case where we stayed in slavery. We would also have to sacrifice a couple of expensive buildings in the older cities which we could otherwise have built.

8) Getting 5GP's before 1AD is fairly easy with this strategy.

Based on this I would like to propose Oracling philosophy, building the Oracle in marble city. We then generate 3 GS and 2GM using the previously outlined locations to bulb astronomy, optics, and civil service. This plan has the following advantages:

1) The chances of us losing the Oracle are smaller compared to machinery
2) We don't have to research maths, we could afford to wait for the AI.
3) 2 very early religions will make dealing with border pops easier.
4) We can abort to a MC slingshot if we wanted too far later than we could with a Machinery sling.

 

[LowtherCastle]

How soon do you think we can slingshot Philo? Could you try to optimize this?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

AI_UNK1 built 2nd city T67 and founded Hinduism in it T68.
Izzy founded Buddhism, maybe Hinduism also, maybe not.
Buddhism is in a pop5 city and hasn't spread.

-------------------------

Does any of this confirm mdy's contention that Oracle will be built more slowly on this map? My main concern would be Izzy, the GLH AI, and any industrious AI. It seems likely that the GLH AI did not found Hinduism, so maybe hasn't researched Mysticism yet.

Well, the AI that is potentially closest to building the Oracle is the one that picked up Buddhism, in that it's likely the only AI to have had a POSSIBILITY of researching Priesthood at this point.

When multiple AIs race for Buddhism or Hinduism, the "loser" of the race will give up... temporarily... and will later complete the tech. Often, however, they will delay the completion of the tech until after Alphabet. You can see this effect when you try and trade an AI a tech like Buddhism or Hinduism and they won't even give you Fishing in return... it's because they have invested a lot of Flasks into the relevant Religious tech and thus they would only need a few turns to complete research on it.

Another potential "concern" would be an AI that starts with access to Marble, but that's a concern that we can't possibly verify using any data-analysis that I know about, so it's just one more possible risk factor.

A further thought is that the English women love building the Oracle. In our game, Vicky hasn't founded either early Religion, so, while she likes building that Wonder, she's unlikely to do so for a long time in our game, particularly since she only has 1 City (and I can't say that I've ever seen an AI try to build the Oracle with only 1 City--it might be possible, but it would indeed be a very rare thing to have happen).

Still, my overall sense is that many early-game Wonders will come relatively late but that Stonehenge and/or The Great Wall may be built early. I base these claims on the AIs' City quantities more than anything... only having 1 City at this late date often implies that an AI is gunning for one of Stonehenge or The Great Wall before building a Settler.

Although it is possible, but unlikely, that the AIs are island-locked like we are, if they are, then there's an even greater chance that they'll delay building "mid-Ancient-era" Wonders like the Oracle.

I do think that dates in the 1000 ADs or 900 ADs would be pushing our luck too much.

From the message that you referenced:

We build the Oracle in marble city, taking either MC around 1300BC, or machinery just after 1100BC.

1100 BC is probably my "cut off" date for what I'd feel comfortable accepting. In too many games I have seen the Oracle built in 1075 BC, 1050 BC, etc, but bumping things back to 1100 BC is a date that I could accept us trying for.


Now, if we were to miss building the Oracle, we'd still have Metal Casting, but we'd be short Machinery and we wouldn't be anywhere near Philosophy. On the other hand, if we were to try for Philosophy instead of Machinery with his same build order and were to also fail to get the Oracle, then we'd at least be able to Lightbulb Philosophy with our first Great Scientist.


So, if we're going to go with an 1100 BC Oracle, then I'd suggest trying to Oracle Philosophy.

The question on this would be, can we get Oracle in Marble by 1300BC, as mdy suggests, without hurting our REX too much?

If you'd only feel comfortable going with a date closer to 1300 BC, then we'd by default take Metal Casting (should we not fail to build the Oracle) but would be able to have put much of our manual research towards Code of Laws and thus would still be able to Lightbulb Philosophy should we manage to miss building the Oracle.


Early Alphabet when Vicky is isolated would only be useful for gifting her techs. Since we start at Cautious and not at Pleased, we would be very unlikely to get her up to Friendly even with Open Borders, Tech Gifting, and Resource Gifting (not that she wants any of our current Resources anyway), and thus tech trading with her wouldn't work.

AI_ISO built 2nd city T71 and has bronzeworking At most one other AI has it.

Besides, even if we meet other AIs, with only 1 to 2 of them apparently knowing Bronze Working, how likely is it that we'll have met an AI who has learned Iron Working and also knows 1 to 2 other AIs that have learned Iron Working (probably about that many AIs will be required to know a tech before we can get it in trade).

So, I don't see a need to beeline Alphabet and thus we could certainly go for Code of Laws as our next "big" tech (i.e. "big" meaning that I don't care if we detour to Animal Husbandry first if we feel that we can use it, say, for the Pig).

Not sure if that's an issue, though, because I doubt we'd revolt to CS+Pacifism before about 500BC anyway, which is still workable.

Well, I don't see a strong benefit to an early Alphabet, particularly since we will have self-teched the "Monopoly tradeable" techs like Fishing and Animal Husbandry by then... i.e. the techs that an AI will trade even if it believes it is the only player in the world to know such a tech.

However, I do see a benefit to Oracling or Lightbulbing Philosophy early on, since:
a) We don't have a different Religious Civic to run
AND
b) Until we spam Military Units, running Pacifism might actually save us a Gold per Turn or two early on, due to slightly lower Civic Upkeep costs
AND
c) It gives us flexibility in getting our first couple of Specialists working as optimally as they would work under Caste System + Pacifism... Caste System doesn't make them stronger but just allows us to run more of them... it's Pacifism that really gives the Specialists the nice boost

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Waiting for maths to become available to trade was a big mistake as it delayed philosophy for too long

Ahhhh, okay, I missed this fact. I just checked and confirmed that in order to Lightbulb Philosophy, we would need to know Code of Laws, Alphabet, and Math (which you guys apparently already knew).

This fact makes Oracling Philosophy appear to be even stronger than waiting to Lightbulb it and definitely makes Oracling Philosophy look more attractive than Oracling Machinery.

6) If we wanted to build the pyramids in stone city it would need a border pop fairly soon, so ideally we would found it as city four and hope a religion gets founded there.

You can control the founding of a Religion if you settle a single City on the turn that the Religion is founded. In that instance, the Religion is guaranteed to be founded in the City that you just built.

I'm not sure if the timing of City 4 or City 5 will co-incide with the founding of a Religion, though.

We then generate 3 GS and 2GM using the previously outlined locations to bulb astronomy, optics, and civil service.

Two Great Merchants on Civil Service feels like it would be overkill. The tech costs less than 1900 Flasks and 1500 Flasks plus 3 Flask per population point would come from a single Great Merchant.

An early Great Merchant COULD Lightbulb Metal Casting, but I don't foresee us getting a Great Merchant early enough to do so.

A second Great Merchant could be used for a Trade Mission in order to support unit-upgrading, so it's not necessarily a bad Great Person type to try for.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Okay, why not the "best" of all worlds?

1. Primary focus on REX, researching Mysticism and settling Stone first (after Gold of course), to build monument-Pyramids.
2. Next settler (build before library) goes to Marble, to build the ORacle asap and take MC. Research Masonry next.
3. Build a second worker to quarry the stone.
4. Research hunting-AH.
5. Build settlers for Furs and Pigs.
6. Research to PH, then writing.
7. Build libraries (maybe forges first, depending on the timing of MC here).

The idea here is to front-load REX. We'll still bulb Philo, after researching CoL+math, but we're not in such a hurry. When we finally revolt to pacifism+CS+Rep, we'll easily be running ~20 specs (5+5+5+4+1), with at least 3 libraries (+Pigs). So Rep will give us:

15sci * 25t * 4.5b/t = 1680b
 5sci * 25t * 3.0b/t =  375b
               Total = 2055b

Any beakers we miss from the late Paris library are easily regained when we do our CS push.