SGOTM 21 - Xteam

[Dhoomstriker]

Actually, Willem's expanded Cultural Borders make things easier, as his Cultural Borders do some fog-busting for us.

We can just leave Warrior 3 in place on the G Riv square (SW + W + W + W of the G Corn), since he gives us good visibility of the area in case Shaka sneaks toward us from the north and he provides good fog-busting across of the River, while also spawn-busting the north for Barb Galleys.

By replacing Willem's second City in the test game with a City of our own, then giving our City 10 Culture, we can see roughly which squares will be fog-busted (it's not necessarily 100% accurate, since Hills or Peaks may be different in the real game, but it's a close approximation).

Anyway, if we keep Warrior 3 in place, then Warrior 2 can target being on the TH Riv For square that is 1W of the G Riv Horse as his final spawn-busting destination.

How we get him there is the tricky part, thanks to the Barb Warrior showing up, but Archer 1 should be able to guide him well enough.


So:
T71:
Warrior 3 stays in place on the G Riv (SW + W + W + W of the G Corn) for a long time
Warrior 2 stays in place on the GH Riv (NW + W of the G Cow) this turn
Archer 1 moves 1NE GH

T72:
If the Barb Warrior went 1NE TH For:
Warrior 2 moves 1SE GH (1W of the G Cow)
Archer 1 stays in place on the GH (SW + W of the G Cow)

If the Barb Warrior went 1E G:
Warrior 2 stays in place on the GH Riv (NW + W of G Cow)
Archer 1 stays in place on the GH (SW + W of G Cow)

If the Barb Warrior 1SE G Riv:
Warrior 2 can move 1SW TH For, but be prepared to run away on future turns if the Barb Warrior might attack our Warrior
Archer 1 stays in place on the GH (SW + W of G Cow)

If the Barb Warrior went 1N, 1NW, 1W, 1SW, or 1S:
Warrior 2 moves 1SW TH For (1W of the G Cow)
Archer 1 moves 1NW TH For (1W of the G Cow)
If the Barb Warrior seems to be going for City 3 next turn, the Archer can move back 1SE GH, otherwise the Archer can help to escort our Warrior to the target spawn-busting square, which is the TH Riv For that is 1W of the G Riv Horse

It's hard to say what to do next, as it depends upon what the Barb Warrior does, but try to get the Barb Warrior to attack our Archer while our Archer is on a square with some Defensive bonus, such as on a Hills square (Archers get a 50% Defensive bonus on Hills squares) or in a Forest.

 

[Folket]

I personally think defending against barb warrior on forested hills is good enough for a warrior.

I will need to sleep now, but consider warrior SW and archer SW/NE.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I personally think defending against barb warrior on forested hills is good enough for a warrior.

It's a bit hard to model 100% accurately, since our Warrior has somewhere between 1.91 and 1.99 Health, but, with a 1.9 Health Warrior on a TH For square:
the Barb Warrior has a 4.1% chance of winning

Even if we do win the fight with our Warrior, though, the wrong unit will get the Promotion.

It will be much better if we can get Guerilla I on our Archer, as then it will be even easier to win fights against Barb Archers and get more experience points for our Archer 1.

Our units are spawn-busters, and the Barb Warrior also acts as a spawn-buster, so I'm not sure why we need to rush into battle.

If we safely get a Promotion on our Archer 1, that fact will be great.

But, if the Barb Warrior doesn't rush us and wanders off, then it's better to have him exist as a spawn-buster out there somewhere than to have a Barb Axeman spawn.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

These ten questions can be asked, in any order you chose:

1.) Where are the female Leaders?

Elizabeth
2.) Task#1
3.) Task#2
4.) Task#3

Isabella
5.) Task#1
6.) Task#2
7.) Task#3

Cathrine
8.) Task#1
9.) Task#2
10.) Task#3

Does anyone want to provide their input on their suggested order of tasks for us to request, so that when the time comes, we'll have a decided-upon order of requests to ask of BSPollux?

 

[leif erikson]

We know where Lizzie is and can more easily plan for a task we need to do for her, so perhaps she comes first. When we find the others, we can decide who is next.

How's that for a stab in the dark.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

You are the active player. You control the computer mouse. Ultimately, we are relying on you to make the best decisions.

I can only give you feedback and suggestions. If you want to gamble with our Military Unit, that is your right as the active player. If we lose, we'll figure out a solution.

I would prefer a safer approach for now, but with no one else really commenting, there isn't strong support either way, so the decision is ultimately yours.

The most important thing to remember is to gift Code of Laws this turn, so that we can trade Civil Service to Willem as soon as he learns Monarchy. Doing so gives him a chance to research Paper for us. I don't think that there would be any better tech choice for him to pick than Paper, as we want that tech soon, but only after we have researched a few other techs first, meaning that he has some time to research it, even if his research pace is slow.

 

[Folket]

Mitt internet har varit nere på morgonen. Hoppas det fungerar ikväll.

 

[Folket]

At least it gives us a few more posts to discuss our options.

Regarding spawnbusting. Warrior 3 spawn- and fog- busts all tiles between us an William. Only reason to have warrior 2 is to find Shakas stack sooner. Moving warrior SE and archer NW looks very safe to me. 4% of loss and then the archer can finish of the barb. 96% chance of faster intel of our SW, better spawnbusting and we can have our archer in the NE to scout for Shakas stack and able to retreat in front of it to help with defence.

I'm willing to go for task 2 with Catherine to help us determine of long game we should aim for.

 

[leif erikson]

It's a bit hard to model 100% accurately, since our Warrior has somewhere between 1.91 and 1.99 Health, but, with a 1.9 Health Warrior on a TH For square:
the Barb Warrior has a 4.1% chance of winning

Even if we do win the fight with our Warrior, though, the wrong unit will get the Promotion.

It will be much better if we can get Guerilla I on our Archer, as then it will be even easier to win fights against Barb Archers and get more experience points for our Archer 1.

Our units are spawn-busters, and the Barb Warrior also acts as a spawn-buster, so I'm not sure why we need to rush into battle.

If we safely get a Promotion on our Archer 1, that fact will be great.

But, if the Barb Warrior doesn't rush us and wanders off, then it's better to have him exist as a spawn-buster out there somewhere than to have a Barb Axeman spawn.

This is a pretty darn good explanation of things. While comfortable with a 4% chance of loss, using a Barb Warrior as a spawn buster instead of waiting for a Barb Axe to appear is certainly worth consideration. Especially since we have little to counter a Barb Axe.

Need to think really hard about a trade for IW, even if it costs us. Am very uncomfortable with nothing to fight with but a club and some arrows.

 

[Folket]

Leif, I'm going to take it that you support being very conservative with our units?

 

[leif erikson]

Don't know if I would put it that way.

I think we should use our units to achieve aims. If it is to our advantage to avoid a fight, then why fight. In this specific case, Dhoom laid out the case that not fighting would provide a better chance of avoiding an Axe showing up. If that is indeed the case, then I'm all for allowing a Warrior to hang out to prevent an Axe coming to call.

If that Warrior needs to die in order to make safe space for a Settler to move forward, then the chance needs to be taken. So let us evaluate a case by case to see what might produce for us the greatest advantage.

 

[Folket]

I do not see that the barb spawnbusts that much. At most one tile W of fur. Our warrior spawnbusts nothing at all.

Minor detail anyhow.

 

[leif erikson]

As the mouse holder, it is your decision. We only give advice.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Okay, so we want Elizabeth 1 or 2 (which one?), and we want Catherine 2 as our first tasks.


RE: Barb Warrior
Right now, we don't know if it is the last part of the Barb Rush or if it appeared after the Barb Rush and is wandering normally.

If it is part of the Barb Rush, it is likely to come at Archer 1 and suicide on Archer 1, whether we stay in place on the G Riv or whether we move 1NE GH and then fight the Barb Warrior there. I prefer taking the better odds of fighting on the GH.


On the other hand, if it is a wandering Barb Warrior and he heads westward, he will be spawn-busting the west for us, even if we have retreated our Archer to the east.

So, temporarily, no further Barbs will spawn in the nearby area, which gives us time to get our spawn-buster and explorer to where they want to be without worrying about new Barbs appearing.


Thus, either the Barb Warrior rushes us and is likely to attack our adjacent unit, in which case I'd rather get better odds on the GH, and I'd rather that this easy win go to our Archer 1 instead of to a Warrior that will likely later just be used as a Military Police unit.

Or, the Barb Warrior will randomly wander away westward and we won't have lost any spawn-busting by temporarily retreating NE. In this case, we can send the Archer through the Forests so that if we meet the Barb Warrior again, it will be a nearly-guaranteed victory.


RE: Tech Trading
Nearly every AI will get Iron Working before they go for a tech like Metal Casting. So, we will get Iron Working in trade from someone.

Mansa will trade Iron Working now, but only if we first gift him a tech and then sell him some other tech, which opens up the chance for him duplicating our research on Alphabet without us knowing about it.

Also, it opens up the chance of him Demanding/Requesting Alphabet from us.

Also, it means that we'll have less techs to trade to him later if he goes for a tech like Horseback Riding, Metal Casting, or Compass.

Also, giving him Writing unlocks a bunch of other techs that he might go for, but ideally, he will be "blocked" or at least "deterred" from going for some of those techs by not knowing Writing and will instead research one of those 3 techs that I just mentioned, which would be great as we don't have plans to research those techs for a while, but we would love for Mansa to research any one of those three techs, as he will trade us such a tech without any other AI needing to know that same tech.

Thus, for now, trading with Mansa is more harmful than helpful, and it's better to wait to get a tech from him that no other AI is likely to research for a while (such as Metal Casting) than it is to get a tech that other AIs will be learning pretty soon (such as Iron Working).


EDIT: What I forgot to add was that if we rely on our Warrior to do the fighting and we send our Archer to the south, what will we do against the Barb Warrior who wins, Promotes to Combat I, and comes to Pillage our G Cow? Our Archer will not be able to come back in time. I'm not really comfortable with this approach.

That's the other reason why I suggest Archer 1 goes NE and Warrior 2 stays in place, so that we can assess what type of Barb Warrior we have, can deal with it safely if it is part of the Barb Rush, and can then deal with it appropriately once we know what type of behaviour the Barb Warrior has.

 

[Cactus Pete]

It's a close call on moving the warrior, taking small risk of loss or an axe replacement. I'd probably do it, if I were playing, but either way is fine by me, Folket.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

EDIT: If we learn each of:
Paper, Education, Aesthetics, Calendar (hopefully from a trade), Iron Working (from a trade), Metal Casting (hopefully from a trade), and Compass (hopefully from a trade)
AND we learn BOTH of Meditation + Philosophy
AND we do not learn Machinery, we can Lightbulb (at least part of) Liberalism

After that, if we do learn Machinery, our next Lightbulbs will go toward Printing Press, then Optics.

Note that I edited my quoted message above. I forgot to include Printing Press, which gets unlocked when we learn Paper + Machinery.

So, the Lightbulbing preferences are slightly different than I thought, with us essentially able to use Great Scientists on techs in this order:
Education -> Philosophy if we mess up and get Meditation in trade without getting Philosophy via a tech steal or an unlikely tech trade -> Liberalism if we get Philosophy and we avoid Machinery, otherwise it won't be Lightbulbable -> Printing Press (which matches well with Bureaucracy + an Academy + Oxford University + improved Cottages in the capital) -> Optics -> Astronomy (although, presumably, we'll be using Liberalism on Astronomy)

Of course, this list requires us to get certain other techs along the way, but most of those techs are already on our planned research path or can come in trade.

I just wanted to make it clear that we won't have a way to quickly Lightbulb Optics, but since we have the option to Lightbulb most of Liberalism, we can put the Flasks that would have been used to self-tech most of Liberalism toward self-teching Optics, and then less Lightbulbable Flasks get wasted, since Optics costs less than the total Flasks that a Great Scientist's Lightbulb can provide, but Liberalism costs more than a Great Scientist's Lightbulb can provide, so we'd earn more total Flasks from the Great Scientist.


Either way, if we plan for using 2 Great Scientists to Lightbulb Education and we put 0 Flasks into that tech ourselves, then after Music, while we wait for those Great Scientists to be generated, we can work on self-teching the techs that we can't get in trade from AIs out of:
Compass, Metal Casting, Machinery, Optics, and Calendar.

I'm hopeful that we'll get at least two of Compass, Metal Casting, and Calendar in trade or via Espionage.

Then, it will just come down to a decision of:
1. Do we want to wait for a 3rd Great Scientist (Great Person #5) to appear before learning Machinery
OR
2. Do we learn Machinery before that time and forget about Lightbulbing part of Liberalism
OR
3. Do we not even try for 3 Great Scientists and hope for a Great Merchant out of Cap so that we can use a Trade Mission to fund further manual research

It's not a decision that we can really make yet, as it will depend upon what the AIs tech, and which Cities will be in a good position to generate Great People at the time of learning Music.

For example, if Mansa learns Metal Casting and we get it from him in trade, we could potentially choose to gift Metal Casting to Willem in hopes that he techs Machinery for us.

Or, if the AIs are all very unhelpful, we might be stuck spending so much time self-teching each of Metal Casting, Compass, and Calendar that we'd get a Great Scientist for part of Liberalism even before we had the option to research Machinery.

 

[Folket]

T71
With the support of Cactus Pete I lead my armies towards the barbarians.
I give away CoL to William.

T72
Our warrior defeats the barb warrior.
Bought Monarchy from William.
Revolted to Confucianism.

T73
The dutch starts to research Theology.

T74

Spoiler :

Turn 71, 1160 BC: You have trained a Settler in X-opolis. Work has now begun on a Spy.
Turn 71, 1160 BC: Barbarian's Warrior (2.00) vs Pericles's Warrior 2 (Gems) (3.43)
Turn 71, 1160 BC: Combat Odds: 3.5%
Turn 71, 1160 BC: (Plot Defense: +75%)
Turn 71, 1160 BC: Pericles's Warrior 2 (Gems) is hit for 15 (83/100HP)
Turn 71, 1160 BC: Barbarian's Warrior is hit for 26 (74/100HP)
Turn 71, 1160 BC: Pericles's Warrior 2 (Gems) is hit for 15 (68/100HP)
Turn 71, 1160 BC: Pericles's Warrior 2 (Gems) is hit for 15 (53/100HP)
Turn 71, 1160 BC: Barbarian's Warrior is hit for 26 (48/100HP)
Turn 71, 1160 BC: Barbarian's Warrior is hit for 26 (22/100HP)
Turn 71, 1160 BC: Barbarian's Warrior is hit for 26 (0/100HP)
Turn 71, 1160 BC: Pericles's Warrior 2 (Gems) has defeated Barbarian's Warrior!

Turn 72, 1120 BC: X-opolis can hurry Spy for 1⇴ with 13ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 22 turns.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: Elizabeth is the worst enemy of Isabella.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: Isabella will trade Meditation
Turn 72, 1120 BC: Willem van Oranje will trade Monarchy
Turn 72, 1120 BC: Mansa Musa will trade Pig
Turn 72, 1120 BC: You have discovered Monarchy!
Turn 72, 1120 BC: Gems will grow to size 5 on the next turn.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: The revolution has begun!!!
Turn 72, 1120 BC: Pericles converts to Confucianism!
Turn 72, 1120 BC: The anarchy is over! Your government is re-established.

Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gems can hurry Barracks for 2⇴ with 24ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 10 turns.
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Surfin' Turf can hurry Archer for 1⇴ with 15ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 16 turns.
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Isabella won't trade Meditation
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Confucianism has spread in Surfin' Turf.
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gems will grow to size 5 on the next turn.
Turn 73, 1080 BC: You have trained a Worker in X-opolis. Work has now begun on a Spy.
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Shaka has founded kwaDukuza in a distant land.

Turn 74, 1040 BC: X-opolis can hurry Spy for 1⇴ with 13ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 20 turns.
Turn 74, 1040 BC: Gems has grown to size 5.
Turn 74, 1040 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 13 ℤ for City 4.
Turn 74, 1040 BC: Athens has been founded.

http://gotm.civfanatics.net/download.php?file=Xteam_SG021_BC1040_01.CivBeyondSwordSave

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Great work, Folket!

Our warrior defeats the barb warrior.

I'm glad that we dodged that bullet. Are we thinking Woodsman I to help the Warrior better survive while spawn-busting or are we thinking Combat I for the long term? I could go either way.

T73
The dutch starts to research Theology.

That's probably the second-best tech that he could have gone for (Paper being the best). Knowing Civil Service + Theology will give him (or us) a discount on researching Paper and will mean that one of our neighbours will have the tech to unlock The Apostolic Palace. Great!


So, it does sound like we will be gifting Willem our City 4 after getting some Catapults, Spies, and units to feed the Catapults some experience points.

That way, we can steal Theology from him before declaring war, then we can recapture our City after declaring war. Recapturing a City of ours with high Culture in it should give us around a 99% chance of keeping the Granary, if not higher.


The City-gifting is actually not going to be that far away, as we'll need to research the rest of Currency, save up some Gold to learn a couple of tasks, then research Construction.


Then the question will become: Can we get a Settler built in time to gift him a second City to become his new capital? I'm thinking of us putting a City by the northern Fish and gifting him that City at the same time as gifting City 4, and Willem can keep the northern Fish City for a long period of time.

Hopefully, he'll build us a Work Boat there.

Also, him keeping that City should hopefully encourage him to send more of his Archers + Chariots toward our empire to help guard that City, so that we can pick off his units in the field on the way to that City.

We could probably put a G Riv Cottage NE + N of City 4 (1SW of Northern Fish City) so that Willem's first citizen is likely to work that improved square, rather than working a P For square, meaning that it will take him longer to slow-build Archers.


We might have to reveal a Coastal route to Elizabeth that goes around Willem's Culture, or we might be fine if we can reveal a route via the south toward Shaka.

Turn 72, 1120 BC: Elizabeth is the worst enemy of Isabella.

We will probably end up having to Refuse to Stop Trading with some Worst Enemies on future turns.

Turn 73, 1080 BC: Shaka has founded kwaDukuza in a distant land.

Shaka having an army makes it easier for him to City-spam.

Turn 72, 1120 BC: You have discovered Monarchy!

Testing will also have to tell us when will be the best time to switch into Hereditary Rule.

 

[leif erikson]

Things are looking great Folket!

Are we planning to allow Willem to build the AP, or do we hope he will do so, before we try to take it?

Why not gift him a city for his new capital located 1 north of the sheep in the east?

Like a city sited 2 west of the Whales near Surfin' Turf? Want some Horses!

Anyone figure out where Izzie is located?

 

[Cactus Pete]

Looking good, Folket.

Dhoom, tell me how in the world do you know this:"Recapturing a City of ours with high Culture in it should give us around a 99% chance of keeping the Granary, if not higher." Is this true in Vanilla?