Turn 1, I settled on the PH wine, for a 2/2/2 city tile. This allows building warriors in 3 turns while working the plains hill forest (PHF from now on). I worked the PHF for quite some time, as you'll see.
Research is set to hunting-archery, while I start to explore to the west.
Turn 7, I produced 2 warriors, for 3 total and I start production on a 4th. Some of them will make it to medic, some will die trying or get disbanded later on, when units start to cost money. The second warrior started exploring to the east. the 3rd warrior fortifies, to build up an extra 25% defense bonus, as will the 4th.
Turn 10, my 4th and last warrior is complete, and I start a work boat, still working the PHF. Hopefully at least 1 of the exploring warriors will make it back to the capital. 3 warriors should hold off barbs until I get my first archer.
Turn 11, Buddism FIDL, I'm about done exploring until spies or axemen.
Some thoughts about early commerce:
Early commerce will be hard on this map. A 2nd city cannot be settled along the capital's river, so no river trade routes. The river to the south has no hill to settle on (50% extra defense bonus for archers is almost required to hold of axemen and swordsmen later on). Hopefully there is seafood @ the furs to the north, or I'll probably go sailing to work coast tiles with lighthouse.
Having said that, I decide to explore 1 more turn with my warriors.
Hello mr. Archer! Fortunately, he moved next to me, instead of me ending next to him. No need to explore further and die now, I start rushing back to the capital to help defend it until I have archers.
Turn 15: Archery is in! Even though the fishing boat is 1 turn from completion, I start an archer. I want to keep working the PHF until my first archer is done anyway. My first archer will be ready in 5 turns, if I can keep the PHF free of barbs. Also, I'm about to have my city attacked by a warrior.
Turn 16: First blood is drawn!!! Let's check the odds here:
Even on Deity, we recieve a bonus against Barbs: an extra 25% Barb City Defense bonus! Added up, our warrior has a 120% defense bonus, meaning even quite favorable odds against archers!
So, I don't agree to the general thoughts here of warriors playing no role at all.
Also, you can see my warrior is hit twice, bringing him down to 1.5/2.0 health, but he will immediately heal 20% damage, so he'll be at 1.9/2.0 health when it is my turn again.
Turn 18, I win the 2nd fight, getting my first promo towards medic, namely Combat I.
A barb archer is approaching, but my archer will be ready just in time (inbetween turns, my unit is produced BEFORE enemy units can attack.
Turn 20, the first archer attacks. Protective archers on hills, even without XP, already have a whopping 165% defense bonus!
He didn't stand a chance. Well, at least not on his own. Did I mention I like drill promo's? Here's why. Look at above picture again.
You see, even though the attacking archer had 0.0% odds, he actually DID do damage to my archer. even with a strength ratio of 2.65 : 1, my archer is at 52 / 100 HP, leaving him at 1.5 strength.
If I promote him up the city garrison (CG2/CG3/Guerilla1) line, the strength ratio's will become
2.65 : 1 @ CG1
2.90 : 1 @ CG2
3.20 : 1 @ CG3
3.40 : 1 @ Guerilla1 + CG3
So all this promorions do, is increasing the 165% defense bonus to 240% defense bonus.
Vs a strength 3 Barb archer, his strength will be 10.20. That means, the attacker will have 0.0% odds to defeat our archer.... wait... didn't he already have 0.0% when he was just CG I??? But he still came out of the battle heavily damaged! If there had been a 2nd barb archer, his strength would have been 1.5 * 165 = 4. While still favourable VS a strength 3 archer, I wouldn't want it to be my last line of defense!
Now check out what Drill IV would have done here (in this particular fight):
With all of drill I, II, III and IV, you have +3 first strikes, and +3 first strike CHANCES. Together with the archers free 1 first strike, he'll have 4 to 7 first strikes. This is determined randomly, I believe each of the possibilities (4,5,6 or 7 first strikes) have equal odds of happening, 25% each.
Now look at the screenshot again. It looks like my archer lost battle rounds 1,2, then won the 3rd, lost the 4th, won the 5th, lost the 6th, and then won the 7th and 8th and defeated the Barb Archer.
This is not entirely true. To have one first strike (remember, our archer is unpromoted) means, that he CANNOT be damaged in the the first battle round. He can still LOSE the first battle round, doing no damage to the enemy, but he WILL NOT take damage from losing that battle round.
This means our defending archer actually DID lose the first battle round, but the combat log doesn't report that round, because no damage is being dealt to either archer!
So, in fact our archer lost battle rounds 1,2,3,5 and 7 before eventually defeating the enemy. Since our archer has 1 free first strike (which has nothing to do with the drill promo's, we'll ignore the first round.
So, our archer took 4 hits, losing 48 HP, half his strength. Had he have been Drill IV, He would have had (1 +) 3 free strikes, meaning he wouldn't have taken damage in round (1 and) 2 and 3. So he would have at least ended up with 88 HP (about 2.6/3 strength). There is even a 33% chance he would have defeated the barb archer WITHOUT TAKING A SCRATCH!
He'd be in way better shape to face additional attackers then a CG3 archer! It's almost comparable to a defensive blitz promo: Can defeat multiple attackers per turn!
Convinced already? Let's continue with the game, shall we? Let's see how this Drill thing plays out into practice.
Our archer has defeated the first barb archer, but there's another one coming up. I'm afraid my 1.6 str archer might be selected to defend over a 2 str. warrior, so I move him out of the city:
This means, our combat 1 warrior will be facing the barb archer. While it might be dangerous, there are 2 more (unpromoted) warriors backing him up. Go get him, boy! We'll wait over here, behind this wall... right... Lets see how hee fares:
Well, that shall be the cliffhanger for the next episode!