[RD] The Republican nomination

[Sommerswerd]

It seems that Trump just does uncharacteristically badly in caucuses.

edit: Excluding Nevada, for some reason.

"some reason"



There is no "Nevada" there is only Las Vegas. Nevada has about 2.8 million residents and 1.8 of those are in Clark County... in other words, the Greater Las Vegas Metro Area. And that lovely above-depicted collection of golden glass and steel is right smack in the middle of it. Las Vegas is Trump Country, and Nevada is essentially the Las Vegas area surrounded by 300 miles of desert in every direction. Trump's win in Nevada is no inexplicable anomaly.

 

[Antilogic]

At this point, why even bother with the pretense? Just set a delegate amount nobody can possibly reach, like say a supermajority, and pick a nominee at the convention. Either be in it to stop Trump or not. The voters crave strong leadership, so give them what they want. Anything less just looks pathetic.

I suspect this might happen. If the RNC is serious about #NeverTrump, they will force it.

Maybe that's just because a brokered convention seems unlikely in the first place, but I just cannot imagine any of the current candidates becoming the nominee. I'd consider Ryan a likely outsider.

I agree on the former, but I disagree on the latter--Romney is the more likely 11th hour savior. He has at least won the majority of delegates four years ago, and thus has a bit of a claim to the position that Ryan doesn't have.

In any case, these things used to be decided by senior party members and insiders. Who knows which candidate Priebus or the big donors prefer in a brokered convention?

This is interesting. There's now a non-trivial chance that the Republican Party could split apart entirely between their business-friendly establishment and the right-wing populists that make up a large proportion of their base, maybe just for this election, maybe more permanently. Obviously for this election that means Hillary wins in a cakewalk, but the future after that becomes very uncertain. For the first time ever, I could fairly easily imagine a situation where we have three significant parties, with a right wing populist party and an establishment conservative party.

If the Trump split does cause permanent damage to the GOP, he will be my new political hero.

It's likely to remain split for only one, maybe two election cycles before the parties realign, largely because all of those factions want to win the big prize in a FPTP system.

Well, we're definitely at the "anger" stage of grief now. Took a long time, but the GOP is very good at denial - it's practically what they do for a living. Next up, some interesting bargains will be made after March 15.

Cruz is going to try to force Rubio out of the race to make it a two-man race between him and Trump. But that means handing Florida to Trump.

This plan does not seem wise.

After tonight's results, I think it is basically Trump v. Cruz with a few hangers on. And yes, it is looking like a Trump nomination at the moment.

Regardless, Rubio is going to finish 3rd or 4th everywhere tonight. Can't wait to hear his victory speech.

Gotta love that guy. He gives a victory speech after every loss, and the only time he won a state he had already given a victory speech.

 

[Martin Alvito]

"Early returns" sounds like a more likely explanation than "caucus" to me.

And yet Cruz wins.

So, the germane questions on the table based on tonight's results would appear to be:

1) Where do Rubio's voters go?

2) Do those voters defect early given that he's a dead man walking?

3) Can Cruz force Kasich out by taking enough Ohio votes?

4) Would that actually help Cruz?

This territory is sufficiently uncharted that I don't know that a good answer exists to any of those questions.

After tonight's results, I think it is basically Trump v. Cruz with a few hangers on. And yes, it is looking like a Trump nomination at the moment.

I'm not sure that either point is correct. Kasich is headed into the part of the calendar that favors him, but he simply must win Ohio to stay in. I'm also not sure that Trump wins a straight Trump-Cruz fight or a Trump-Cruz-Kasich fight. I'm not even sure which of Trump-Cruz or Trump-Cruz-Kasich favors Trump. The only thing that I'd be willing to say with confidence is that the Carson box very likely contained a lot of Cruz voters.

 

[metalhead]

Rubio voters could defect to Cruz as the only realistic "Stop Trump" candidate, but Kasich seems a more natural fit. I don't know if they defect before Rubio quits next Tuesday, but it's really difficult to see how anyone could come over TO him at this point.

Cruz won't be nominated at a brokered convention, so anything that gets him more delegates helps him.

 

[Antilogic]

I'm not sure that either point is correct. Kasich is headed into the part of the calendar that favors him, but he simply must win Ohio to stay in. I'm also not sure that Trump wins a straight Trump-Cruz fight or a Trump-Cruz-Kasich fight. I'm not even sure which of Trump-Cruz or Trump-Cruz-Kasich favors Trump. The only thing that I'd be willing to say with confidence is that the Carson box very likely contained a lot of Cruz voters.

Favors him means he wins 20% instead of 10%? He's sitting with 20-some delegates before tonight, even Rubio had 4-5 times that number.

Kasich will be useful for promoting the brokered convention idea if he blocks Trump in Ohio, but that's about it.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Kasich actually beat Rubio in Maine and may end up beating him in Kansas as well (they are tied right now with 48% reporting). I too am looking forward to Rubio's victory speech.

Again, props to J for being one of the first to recognize Cruz as a contender, when almost everyone was saying he was at the bottom of the barrel.

Maybe my wildest dreams of Cruz winning first ballot (and Trump gracefully bowing out to endorse him as he promised) can still come true??

 

[Archbob]

Can Cruz pull out KY?

 

[ls612]

Can Cruz pull out KY?

He's gaining by the minute he might just pull it off. I can't believe that Trump's rise honestly has me rooting for Ted Cruz at this point.

 

[Camikaze]

Rubio is in serious trouble. Cruz's victories don't really do anything much to further the idea that he would be the nominee - he still would need to win a majority of delegates for that, and that's still not a likely scenario. All it does is prevent Trump from getting the delegates, forcing a contested convention in which someone other than Trump or Cruz can prevail. Perhaps we're overlooking the possibility that the Republican establishment could decide to anoint Cruz rather than go with Trump, but that still seems pretty far-fetched. Perhaps they'd do it safe in the knowledge that he wouldn't win, and could thus be blamed for failing to win, preserving the hopes of the 'moderates' for 2020.

 

[Lexicus]

Rubio is in serious trouble. Cruz's victories don't really do anything much to further the idea that he would be the nominee - he still would need to win a majority of delegates for that, and that's still not a likely scenario. All it does is prevent Trump from getting the delegates, forcing a contested convention in which someone other than Trump or Cruz can prevail. Perhaps we're overlooking the possibility that the Republican establishment could decide to anoint Cruz rather than go with Trump, but that still seems pretty far-fetched. Perhaps they'd do it safe in the knowledge that he wouldn't win, and could thus be blamed for failing to win, preserving the hopes of the 'moderates' for 2020.

I think Cruz is probably the only person on Earth the Republican establishment likes less than Trump. Which is why the fact that he's emerged as the only credible opposition to Trump is so delicious

 

[Martin Alvito]

Favors him means he wins 20% instead of 10%? He's sitting with 20-some delegates before tonight, even Rubio had 4-5 times that number.

See, here's the thing:

Rubio voters could defect to Cruz as the only realistic "Stop Trump" candidate, but Kasich seems a more natural fit.

Kasich's game always boiled down to: Win Ohio, hope Rubio crashes and burns, get a majority of his voters on fit and become a player in the ideological match states. If you poll 20% naturally in a four-way and grab most of Rubio's support, you can prospectively win 35-30-30 in states like NJ, MD, PA, NY, and CA. In the latter three cases you probably don't sweep the delegates because they're winner-take-all by district and votes don't distribute as cleanly as you'd like, but a 35-30-30 statewide winner is probably still likely to walk away with a disproportionate delegate share.

The universe where Kasich gets 1,237 doesn't exist (given where we're already at in the race), but it may not be that unlikely that we live in the one where he walks away with the nomination after he blocks Trump from reaching 1,237 along with Cruz. That's probably a poison pill since Trump then goes third party, but I doubt that such a loss would hurt him with regard to his likely Senate aspirations once his gubernatorial term is up.

 

[Sommerswerd]

The universe where Kasich gets 1,237 doesn't exist (given where we're already at in the race), but it may not be that unlikely that we live in the one where he walks away with the nomination after he blocks Trump from reaching 1,237 along with Cruz. That's probably a poison pill since Trump then goes third party, but I doubt that such a loss would hurt him with regard to his likely Senate aspirations once his gubernatorial term is up.

Senate is a step down from governor

 

[Antilogic]

Can Cruz pull out KY?

I don't know, it seems like a pretty slippery situation if you ask me.

Rubio is in serious trouble. Cruz's victories don't really do anything much to further the idea that he would be the nominee - he still would need to win a majority of delegates for that, and that's still not a likely scenario. All it does is prevent Trump from getting the delegates, forcing a contested convention in which someone other than Trump or Cruz can prevail. Perhaps we're overlooking the possibility that the Republican establishment could decide to anoint Cruz rather than go with Trump, but that still seems pretty far-fetched. Perhaps they'd do it safe in the knowledge that he wouldn't win, and could thus be blamed for failing to win, preserving the hopes of the 'moderates' for 2020.

In terms of convention balloting strategy, if Rubio was a closer 3rd or in 2nd place, he could conceivably try to build support over two or three ballots to win the nomination. But he's starting so far back I think he can't reach it with ferocious Trump and Cruz partisans comprising the majority of the floor. I think he'll build up for a round, then ultimately fade as an 11th hour savior enters on the third or fourth ballot.

See, here's the thing:



Kasich's game always boiled down to: Win Ohio, hope Rubio crashes and burns, get a majority of his voters on fit and become a player in the ideological match states. If you poll 20% naturally in a four-way and grab most of Rubio's support, you can prospectively win 35-30-30 in states like NJ, MD, PA, NY, and CA. In the latter three cases you probably don't sweep the delegates because they're winner-take-all by district and votes don't distribute as cleanly as you'd like, but a 35-30-30 statewide winner is probably still likely to walk away with a disproportionate delegate share.

The universe where Kasich gets 1,237 doesn't exist (given where we're already at in the race), but it may not be that unlikely that we live in the one where he walks away with the nomination after he blocks Trump from reaching 1,237 along with Cruz. That's probably a poison pill since Trump then goes third party, but I doubt that such a loss would hurt him with regard to his likely Senate aspirations once his gubernatorial term is up.

I understand the logic, but Rubio at the moment is sticking in until the same day that Ohio votes, and by the end of the day on March 15th, 1,545 GOP delegates will already have been selected (I should note I just ran through a primary schedule adding stuff on my phone, including some nonbinding contests, so the actual delegate count will likely vary a bit that evening). That's 62.5% of the total number of delegates.

Mathematically, I don't think he ends up with a plurality in your scenario (although I'm tempted to run it through RCP's calculacker). He could end up in the contested Rubio scenario I described up-post, but he's starting with an extra deficit of around 100 delegates.

 

[onejayhawk]

Rubio is in serious trouble. Cruz's victories don't really do anything much to further the idea that he would be the nominee - he still would need to win a majority of delegates for that, and that's still not a likely scenario. All it does is prevent Trump from getting the delegates, forcing a contested convention in which someone other than Trump or Cruz can prevail. Perhaps we're overlooking the possibility that the Republican establishment could decide to anoint Cruz rather than go with Trump, but that still seems pretty far-fetched. Perhaps they'd do it safe in the knowledge that he wouldn't win, and could thus be blamed for failing to win, preserving the hopes of the 'moderates' for 2020.

One of the knocks on Rubio all along was no organization. One of Cruz' strengths was his organization. Concerning Trump in caucuses. Most caucus states are close. Without crossovers from independents and sometimes Democrats, Trump has issues.

I am very surprised at the LA results. Nothing I had seen even hinted it would be close. Cruz kicked ass in the debate Friday and then won the day on Saturday. Will it be enough? Michigan Tuesday is becoming a very big deal. It keeps looking like Trump will land the knockout blow but Cruz keeps staying alive.

J

 

[Archbob]

Yeah, I don't think the establishment will actually rally around Cruz. The establishment basically has the nightmare choice of choosing between Trump and Cruz.

Caucuses and closed primary seem to really favor Cruz. Open Primaries seem to favor Trump by a lot. How many winner-take-all states are open and how many are closed?

 

[Martin Alvito]

Senate is a step down from governor

Term limits. Not disagreeing with your thesis.

Mathematically, I don't think he ends up with a plurality in your scenario (although I'm tempted to run it through RCP's calculacker). He could end up in the contested Rubio scenario I described up-post, but he's starting with an extra deficit of around 100 delegates.

He doesn't need a plurality to be the nominee. He just needs Trump to fall short, to be the leading candidate not named Trump or Cruz and to bring a non-laughable number of delegates to the table.

In general, the delegates (no matter who they're bound to on the first ballot) are going to be hardcore Republican Party activists and it should be very easy for the party to line them up behind the candidate the party deems acceptable on the second ballot. ('Vote for Kasich or be forever banished, your call.')

 

[Camikaze]

Hasn't Kasich publicly stated that he's not aiming for a majority of delegates, but hopes to win in a contested convention? I think once such a convention comes around, the difference between 15% of the delegates and 25% of the delegates isn't all that significant.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Hasn't Kasich publicly stated that he's not aiming for a majority of delegates, but hopes to win in a contested convention? I think once such a convention comes around, the difference between 15% of the delegates and 25% of the delegates isn't all that significant.

I actually disagree with that somewhat, in that as Kasich has fewer delegates it becomes harder for the party to justify giving him the nomination. If it's something like 40-35-25 for Trump/Cruz/Kasich then throwing Kasich the nomination doesn't look as bad as if it's 45-40-15. It still looks bad (Kasich cleaning up the left-leaning states and finishing in second over Cruz is ideal for the party), but it doesn't scream 'undemocratic' to quite the same degree.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Well if they are goading Trump to run 3rd party it doesn't matter how it looks

 

[Camikaze]

I don't disagree that it would be hard, but I'm not really sure I agree on the marginal difference between justifying e.g. 15% and 25% - in both cases it's patently undemocratic, and will be widely decried as such. If the GOP is going to be subject to that criticism in any case, surely they'd prefer the better candidate (and surely the only reason they went with Rubio over Kasich is that he was performing significantly better early on).

Certainly the lower Kasich's count is, the more impractical it becomes to sway the necessary delegates compared to his rivals. But I don't think the marginal problem would be with justification.