Recent content by Moriarte

Your impulse of being skeptical of overhype is probably correct. At the same time I feel that, given quite obvious and fast advances in the field, we're not that far off from AI getting autonomy (through robotics) thus enabling possibility of big cross-domain breakthrough. So far AI is a set of...

So do we. When knowledge fields overlap we can find something new on the edge of the overlap. And so can AI. Recent examples being antibiotics and enzymes discovered through use of various forms of machine learning. The difference between human and AI applying their brains/neural networks...

I think chess holds the best analogy as to where this can take us. As stockfish algorithm progressed in efficiency and benefitted from constant growth of compute, chess "intelligence" grew past 2800 ELO, current level of best humans, and off into 4000 ELO, where it resides now. So, with more...

I don't think they're insulted. I think they feel they're onto something after acting president did a 180 backward flip from "yeah, I'd definitely release those if I win" to "who the hell still wants those files?" after he won. As I understand, he is in the Position to just say no, as president...

All brands are at serious risk right now. BYD is one of the rare brands, which continues increasing vehicle deliveries, even through ongoing slump in worldwide electric car market. But even they, eventually, won't be able to resist saturation caused by intense worldwide competition of the past...

Economic isolationism is here to stay. It is going to be harder to convince average voter to spend money on other countries again, unless there's widely supported reasoning for it, left and right. Tariffs may be altered by the next administration, but they will ultimately be deemed useful (when...

So far EU is condemning China and preparing "countermeasures" against Chinese rare earth restrictions, provoked by el Donald's tariffs. (China introduced requirement to obtain rare earth licenses for everyone, not just USA, so EU is caught in collateral fire). Buying from China is, at least...

To threaten "like the Chinese" Europeans need their own rare earth monopoly or a comparable threat that can cause an immediate change of narrative. So far they've struggled to find one. Donald is trying to get EU off Apple/Google/Microsoft's back. In return for promise to not pursue...

Techno-libertarianism, if I had to guess. (I haven’t seen anything official yet) Deregulation, limited government, debt reduction. High spending on innovation, fixing birth rates.

I think Musk feels he’s untouchable, having pentagon, nasa, sda friends … but more importantly dominant position in Launch business. He’s currently launching half of annual worldwide rocket fleet. In terms of cargo delivered to orbit - he is at 80-90% global throughout today. His customers are...

Chinese themselves don’t believe they are communists yet. Communist sticker on the name of their party reflects their aspirations more than actual reality if you want my opinion. I simply used that sticker to point out directionality. I believe that China’s model of universal access to...

Do you see definitive signs of anyone about to break western monopoly in chip architecture design, AI, software in the coming decades? I see some of those US monopolists (Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon) so intertwined with western way of life - strains the mind to imagine anyone breaking their reign...

No, they can not. China holds under 3% of total US debt and falling. Interest payments will be growing, but so will the economy. 10 years from now US debt to GDP will be 150%. Today it's 122%. Still a far cry from Japan, which stands at 250%. Provided you eventually bring costs down under...

The bill was passed.

I reckon it’ll take longer than 6 months to replenish missile stocks of both countries and to rebuild/replace the smashed AA defences. This war served Netanyahu well in continuing to divert attention, in the same vein the attention was conveniently directed away from LA protests. So, I guess...