Recent content by utgotye

Congrats to Obama. Unfortunately for him, his victory was a weak one and thanks to the GOP retaining the House, we can expect more of the same for the next 2-4 years. It would seem to be what the people majority of the people want. Obama is going to have to decide if he wants to emulate...

That may be but past reliability is not indicative of present/future performance.

Again, my problem with Silver is that his model is only as good as the data he feeds it. Garbage in, garbage out. I have already given one recent example of a poll being changed to get the desired result, that there could be more is certainly within the realm of possibility. Should be an...

http://www.sltrib.com/csp/cms/sites/sltrib/pages/printerfriendly.csp?id=55214122 Not saying anything other than: don't tell me it doesn't happen.

Source?

I have ZERO idea. I'm not saying 2010 is the place to start either. But I'm betting if you take the average of 2004 and 2008, it would at least be in the ballpark for the most part. Anyone care to guess as to what that might do to some of these polls? ;) Time to pass out. Don't have a...

Biblical consequences and implications aside, I would agree with you in the main. The nanosecond 50.1% of the voters are no longer responsible for their own lives/livelihood, we are all screwed. You think the federal government is worthless now? You thought it was hard to vote out an...

Looking at upgrading to that exact CPU as soon as I find a good deal. Still running a Athlon x2 so if you're happy I'm sure I'll be stoked. :goodjob:

If their idea for lower turnout is level with, or greater than, 2008, then they are still starting with a faulty premise. As I said, the only people that think that is realistic are people in the Obama camp and even that isn't certain.

D+3.5 is winnable for Romney if he wins independents like is expected. And that's fine, I'm not expecting you to, I'm simply wondering why you and others seem to just believe the result without examining the internals of the poll and judging for yourself if is a valid representation of...

I'm not saying there isn't any at all. I'm saying you and him and all of the pollsters and the people who believe the polls mindlessly because they seem to support their guy haven't provided it. Common sense, voter registration, early voting numbers, their own polling numbers (at times), would...

Never attribute to malice what can just as easily be explained by stupidity. Or in this case, faulty assumptions. Don't misunderstand, I have ZERO problem with seemingly intelligent people voting for "the other team", though in light of the last four years I would at least wonder why. For...

Who said anything about a conspiracy? People can be wrong without being malicious. What's circular about it? If the polls are accurate, how the hell can we legitimately expect Obama to be ahead when he's losing Independents by 7ish pts and double digits in many polls? If the polls are...

That's the thing, there's no reason to believe most of the polls are right, unless Obama gets the kind of support he got in 2008, something no one outside of the Obama camp (and apparently a bunch of people here) believes and something for which they have no (known) evidence to support...

Yep. Went back and forth on IA and ended up just flipping a coin since it didn't matter at that point as far as who won. IA could be a bit strange since the polls there close later than the surrounding states. Iowa is just strange in general though. :lol: