You forgot the 25% extra when you're building 'Research'. You get (for example) 30
with Forge instead of 24
without Forge. It's means every 5 turns without Forge you lose a turn building
That's how you compensate my lose of turns building the Forge
and don't forget that you can't build a University early, because you don't have the knowlege of Education yet. so you get a University and so on earlier. maybe you lose a few turn with the library
Actually, I did mention the bonus for building research; I said it would count as part of the 600 hammer break-even point, or as part of the benefit after the break-even point (I'm referring to breaking even on hammers here, but the opportunity costs I mentioned before would still be an issue).
The thing is, the bonus for building research is largely irrelevent, because it delays even further the completion of the research multiplier buildings - weren't they the milestones we were meant to be using? If you're building research, you're not finishing off your observatory (or whatever), so the problem I mentioned gets even worse. Assuming you have more commerce than hammers (this was meant to be a commerce city), it's not sensible to build research with a 25% bonus when you could be building a library to give yourself a 25% bonus to commerce. Every turn you spend building research now, is a turn you've lost the 25% commerce bonus on later. In fact, it's even worse than that - you're also delaying the other research buildings. Therefore, delaying the library means you're delaying the situation where you have 100% research bonus to commerce, delaying the university means you're delaying an eventual 75% bonus, etc.
Your point about not having the prerequisites for the later buildings is perfectly valid though. The opportunity cost I mentioned will apply to all the stuff you building while waiting for Education, Astronomy, etc, but we're assuming that we're only interested in building the research multipleir buildings. I suppose if you plan to spend the downtime building research, you're better off with a forge. However, I think you'd be even better off if you built the library and *then* the forge, assuming you can finish the forge before the university is available. That way, you get the bonus on the commerce while you're building the forge.
If you're interested in building stuff other than the research multiplier buildings while you wait for the right technologies (courthouses, temples, etc), then it's a judgement call - is it a problem if you delay *those* while you build a forge, or are they relatively unimportant compared to getting the research multipliers in place quickly once you do get the techs?
Don't get me wrong, I agree with your conclusions, but the opportunity cost issue does mean your figures are slightly flawed - it's only the downtime you experience while waiting for the right techs for unis etc. that really supports your case.