[RD] Russia invades Ukraine V: The Turning Tide

[El_Machinae]

Perhaps some omnicidal maniac with a lab could engineer a weaponized virus that could be as dangerous as a nuclear war but I consider that a more-or-less fanciful scenario. A nuclear war is not a fanciful scenario.

I think you're missing both the Law of Large numbers and deflationary trends in biotechnology.

If people are thinking existential risks, and some of this thread is that, then people are missing something if they're ignoring bioweapons.

I think Putin's risk is nuclear extortion being tolerated, and its ongoing influence on realpolitik, than actual nuclear annihilation

 

[Yeekim]

And yet I'm hearing from others in this thread that Russian public support for the war is broad and deep. Which is it?

The support was broad and deep, as long as no risk of bring press-ganged to the front existed. We'll see how much it changes things. Anecdotally, those dodging draft by escaping abroad don't necessarily condemn the war.

 

[Lexicus]

The support for war is pretty broad. It's another matter that those who support it start to hide and flee when they might need to go to the frotlines. Ironic.

The support was broad and deep, as long as no risk of bring press-ganged to the front existed. We'll see how much it changes things. Anecdotally, those dodging draft by escaping abroad don't necessarily condemn the war.

It's not too surprising. But if the attitude is "war is good, as long as I don't have to go fight it," why would we expect the draft to reduce support for the war in the abstract? People fleeing the draft is good but it doesn't seem to translate into the kind of opposition people seem to be hoping for in terms of the Russian people making the prosecution of the war impossible through acts of resistance and disobedience.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Mr. Putin’s war effort has generated pressures that present the biggest threat to his 23-year rule in Russia. They include the bite of Western sanctions, shrinking government revenue, an exhausted military and a public irked by a widening conflict in Ukraine in which few wanted to fight.

And yet I'm hearing from others in this thread that Russian public support for the war is broad and deep. Which is it?

Perhaps the support for going to war was thin, but once started he gained support? I don't know the true answer to your question. I found Putin's hope that winter will solve his problems most interesting. Invaders have struggled against Russia's winters, but in this case, it is Russia that is the invader.

I wonder how global warming has affected winter in the Ukraine I recent years.

 

[AmazonQueen]

I'm not convinced the support is that deep.
There have been protests which have been vigorously suppressed as has independent Russian media.
These aren't the actions of a government secure in the strength of its support.

 

[Lexicus]

I wonder how global warming has affected winter in the Ukraine I recent years

Warmer winters = longer mud time, and mud time means a big debuff to unit movement speeds.

To the extent that Ukraine is still trying to advance and Russia still trying to hold its positions, winter ought to help Putin in the short term. Beyond that it's hard to tell - will Ukraine still be trying to move forward in a few months' time? I'd guess not, but obviously I don't know a damn thing.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Despite the setbacks, Putin's goals seem to be expanding. It now appears, at least from the news-media I am consuming, that he is now declaring openly that he wishes to completely annex the entirety of Ukraine. It's kind of a head scratcher for me because the news is also reporting that the Russian military is losing some of their gains, being beaten back and in full retreat in some places. It seems a little far-fetched to me that Ukraine would launch a major counter-invasion of Russia, even if they could, especially with winter coming but I don't see any indications that Russia would be able to overrun the entirety of Ukraine any time soon.

 

[Yeekim]

It's not too surprising. But if the attitude is "war is good, as long as I don't have to go fight it," why would we expect the draft to reduce support for the war in the abstract? People fleeing the draft is good but it doesn't seem to translate into the kind of opposition people seem to be hoping for in terms of the Russian people making the prosecution of the war impossible through acts of resistance and disobedience.

Well, it quite dramatically increases the number of people, who risk getting drafted, or having their family members drafted.
Perhaps even more crucially, it increases the number of people who can witness firsthand the corruption and incompetence in Russian army. Last time Russia attempted to prosecute a war like this, "revolutionary soldiers' councils" ended up shooting the Czar.

 

[Akka]

Despite the setbacks, Putin's goals seem to be expanding. It now appears, at least from the news-media I am consuming, that he is now declaring openly that he wishes to completely annex the entirety of Ukraine. It's kind of a head scratcher for me because the news is also reporting that the Russian military is losing some of their gains, being beaten back and in full retreat in some places. It seems a little far-fetched to me that Ukraine would launch a major counter-invasion of Russia, even if they could, especially with winter coming but I don't see any indications that Russia would be able to overrun the entirety of Ukraine any time soon.

Because the more dire the invasion situation is, the more Putin's support lies in the hands of the ultra-nationalist, who are the ones willing to go all the way. As such, he's somewhat forced to go more and more ultra in the rhetorics, even as his actual means are deteriorating.
That's the problem of relying on extremists.

 

[Farm Boy]

Despite the setbacks, Putin's goals seem to be expanding. It now appears, at least from the news-media I am consuming, that he is now declaring openly that he wishes to completely annex the entirety of Ukraine. It's kind of a head scratcher for me because the news is also reporting that the Russian military is losing some of their gains, being beaten back and in full retreat in some places. It seems a little far-fetched to me that Ukraine would launch a major counter-invasion of Russia, even if they could, especially with winter coming but I don't see any indications that Russia would be able to overrun the entirety of Ukraine any time soon.

The UN was almost driven into the sea when the communists played this game in Korea. They still haven't given up the official policy of murder. North Korean artillery seems at least somewhat back in vogue.

 

[Lexicus]

Saw this in a compilation of "posts that haven't aged well"

 

[saamohod]

Saw this in a compilation of "posts that haven't aged well" View attachment 642593

Any patriotic Russian will tell you that this statement still stands, because there is no war in Russia.

 

[Verbose]

It's not too surprising. But if the attitude is "war is good, as long as I don't have to go fight it," why would we expect the draft to reduce support for the war in the abstract? People fleeing the draft is good but it doesn't seem to translate into the kind of opposition people seem to be hoping for in terms of the Russian people making the prosecution of the war impossible through acts of resistance and disobedience.

I think it's more an attitude of "It is good the Russia is a powerful country, a great power" – implicitly it is assumed bad things happens to small and weak countries. Don't be one of those. That would be bad for Russians. To quote Putin: "The weak get beaten."

Starting wars and defeating weak countries is one of these things powerful countries do. Ukraine by definition cannot be an equal to Russia, it's subordinate.

 

[9gkj548hkm20vk79dj689bnj4]

if putin had the capacity to do earlier what he claims he can do now, I think we would have seen it earlier.
right?

maybe he just likes to surround himself with people to whom he can tell than a full 180 in Ukraine is possible and inevitable. sort of like cushions for his psyche.

 

[Lexicus]

Any patriotic Russian will tell you that this statement still stands, because there is no war in Russia.

An interesting point. Just a few problems: if they're claiming the parts of Ukraine they hold (especially Crimea) are actually Russia, then there damn sure is war in Russia. Second, there have been some Ukrainian operations on actual Russian territory (or in Russian airpsace) afaik?

 

[saamohod]

An interesting point. Just a few problems: if they're claiming the parts of Ukraine they hold (especially Crimea) are actually Russia, then there damn sure is war in Russia. Second, there have been some Ukrainian operations on actual Russian territory (or in Russian airpsace) afaik?

For cases like this their answer will be "There is still no war; it's a Special Military Operation". Calling it a war is a big no-no inside Russia.

 

[Lexicus]

For cases like this their answer will be "There is still no war; it's a Special Military Operation". Calling it a war is a big no-no inside Russia.

(ignore the lack of "N", the text limit was pretty short)

 

[r16]

russia will not lose to people whose political creed starts with the letter N . (This odd statement requires proof that's not available as of yet) It is a Russian tradition from hell to get beaten beyond belief , before the referee counts up to 10 . High hopes for a harsh winter , the Rich starting to feel the heat . Contrary to claims of pandering to the ultranationalists who in Russia somehow happen to be prime recruiting venue for those very same N letter people , Putin increases the scope of his claims , because of some weird sense of assuredness . And to spite all those people who plot for a coup in Russia , the approach also assures Putin's safety . If Victory is within grasp , you gotta be a traitor to get Putin down and deny his "proper" war aims .

 

[r16]

ugh , 30 Democrats from Congress supposedly called for negatitions with Putin . Supposedly radicals .
Moderator Action: Link: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/24/politics/congress-democrats-reaction-ukraine-strategy/index.html

 

[IgrOK[SU]]

Kyiv today (sorry, 2019):