Strategy discussion

Anyone have any idea about the new rebalancing of units? It seems Daodun Swordswen were nerfed quite a bit, making the AI Guardian spam alot more effective. Throwing Crossbowmen at them seems to work, but that invariably leaves me with high war weariness and carries the risk of not having enough troops to mop up. Cavalry would be a great solution, but my legions can only do so much at once and regular cavalry doesn't stand a chance.
I guess that attrition is becoming more and more necessary, unless you have multiple legions attacking a single city.
 
1. Stay in Corvee until you have a decent amount of land (read: most of Cao Cao's land)
2. Finish off Yuan Shu easily (with the use of crossbows and then mopping up with Guan Yu and Zhang Fei). Declare on Bai Bo, open borders with Cao, traverse Cao's territory and get Xin An/Hong Nong. Capture Ru Nan to have easy access to Xu Chang. Luoyang is usually lightly defended, declare on Cao Cao after resting and you'll get both cities when he's still busy with Lu Bu.
3. Capture capitals first if possible (you get half their culture which means you'll have enemy troops on your turf)
4. Xia Pi builds Military Advisor and churns out axemen/crossbows. Xiandeng swords are useless against Lu Bu's anti-cavalry battalions.
5. Trade for ancient dictionary from Wang Lang. Research military advisor, reformed poetry, get Jianan Literature and build the 2 wonders (Xia Pi and Xu Chang, the latter for Royal Hunting Field to get some special horses later on).
6. The Prince of Chen will trade you anesthesia eventually if you play nice and involve him in wars against Cao Cao.
 
I don't remember who it was, but one of my Liu Bei heroes had a promotion that weakened nearby opponents by a certain percentage each turn (awe-inspiring). I felt the same thing happening to me while I was playing as Sun Quan attacking Cao Cao's Wan, so it must not just be specific to Liu Bei. This is a must-have promotion, better than any city-attack promotion! (probably only counteracted by a doubly-promoted medic)

The other must-have is water-assist--either rivers or ocean will give you 20% more attack. Probably limited to Wu generals.

BTW, has anybody obtained a golden age yet from their heroes (small chance of getting golden age after a victory)? Must be really small indeed.
 
The promotion I saw that weakens foes was called Dread. I have yet to get a golden age from my officers new promo. You get it for defeating enemy core unit?
 
Dread is awesome, though not very useful in seiges unless the enemy is damaged already. I have to really test the Triumph promo with Guan Yu. Assault + Tough + Triumph should = win. Especially against all those weaker officers around.
 
Dread is awesome, though not very useful in seiges unless the enemy is damaged already. I have to really test the Triumph promo with Guan Yu. Assault + Tough + Triumph should = win. Especially against all those weaker officers around.

I'm playing Liu Bei, and with Guan Yu and Zhang Liao both having the A+T+Triumph promo, I'm having almost a continuous stream of Golden Ages. I purposely don't kill off my Rivals, and hit them one city at a time for the free GA's.

After each city, I grant them peace. While my GA is going on, I move to another rival, declare on them with a turn or 2 left in my GA, with Lu Bu or Zhang Fei's siege taking down their defense. Then, when the city is takable, I hit them with Guan Yu or Zhang Liao for the free GA. If I DON'T get the free GA, I wait another turn while their hero regroups, then hit their core troop again. Delaying taking a city for 2 or 3 turns is definately worth the GA.

At this point, Guan Yu is making Cao Cao's Xaouhu twins his personal b*tches.

P.S. Lu Bu is a tough nut to crack. Make sure he's in the depth of his fight with Cao Cao before going aginst him. Helpful if you've got Open Boarders with Cao Cao, to have a scout observe how the fighting is going. Start out by using Yuan Shu as a trainging punching bag.
 
Yeah, with the new promo rebalancing, Triumph is awesome! Xiahou Dun is hard to take down when he has a full legion though, since Guard seems to give +50% vs. ALL Legion members.

Zhang Liao is definitely the most powerful hero of this release though. He gets the best promotions, and though he lacks Vigorous IV, he gets Indomitable, Persuasive and Dread. Since he also gets Defence I, he doesn't have Lu Bu's weakness on the defence. If he does get caught off guard by a major stack, Indomitable is great! It's saved my elite units more than once.
 
The Guard promotion works only against core troop, it's only the help text that's wrong, adding/removing the enemy legion hero's Guard promotion and then target them again will not change the combat odds.

The triumph is good, but perhaps we could have a little tweak here: making the golden age chance dependent on the enemy hero's level, say 5% per level, so defeating weaker enemy heroes will have a lesser chance of triggering a golden age than defeating stronger enemy heroes.
 
Ah, that's good to know on the Guard promo. Your idea with triumph would be great though!
 
I just noticed that the length of the Golden Age is cumulative with Triumph! Forget my previous strat, I'm just gonna roll over all my rivals with the Guan Yu/Zhang Liao combo! Currently I have 23 turns of GA from destroying 2 stacks from 2 separate nations, in 2 turns!

I declared on CaoCao to lay seige to XuChang. He paid off DongZhuo and HanSui to declare on me. To bad for him, I managed to capture XuChang before his reinforcements arrived. I don't know if it's part of the AI, or just coincidence, but the 2 forces reached me at the same time, backing each other up!!?? I was facing 3 generals with 6 cats, 5 halbs, 8 riders, and a few misc troops combined. It's wierd seeing DongZhuo's halbards defending HanSui's cats.

BUT, too bad for them, I hit them with LuBu leading LiuBei's unique unit, the something-or-another crossbows with massive collateral damage, then Guan Yu and Zhang Liao defeated a general each for 2 GA's in the SAME TURN! They started running back to Cao Cao's territory, and I finished off the stack with my collection of generals, and Zhang Liao got ANOTHER GA by taking out HanSui himself.

Too bad I'm still a few turn away from completing the WW that extends GA length! Or it'd be 35 turns!
 
Wow, that's nice... I never really bothered to get triumph all that often, simply because Golden Ages don't mean as much to me as some of the other abilities.

As for some random strategic talk, do you attach all your champions to a single general (to maximise bonus leadership xp) or do you spread them out. It really helps out generals who can get lots of promo's, but can be horrible at times because if your whole legion consists of champion-led units, if your core troop is defeated he can't attach to another legion member. This is especially deadly for Zhang Liao (as Lu Bu) because his loyalty dissapears after a bit, making him defect to almost anyone who defeats him, especially Cao Cao.
 
An Introduction to HoTK: Sun Ce
The year is 196, and China is in turmoil. Long gone are the days of the Yellow Turban Rebellion and the tyrannical Dong Zhuo. Now, regional warlords vie for power, each with their own equally ambitious goal. Yuan Shao of the North begins his invasion of Gonsun Zan's territory, Cao Cao of the Central Plains seizes control of the powerless Emperor Xian and Liu Bei begins on the path to restore the Han Dynasty. Two years previously, the young Sun Ce, a decedent of the famed Sun Tzu, was detached by his lord Yuan Shu to conquer a foothold in Southern China. Surmounting all odds, the young Ce began reclaiming lands that he believed were the rightful territories of the Sun family while defeating far larger forces with apparent ease. Still, despite his successes, the enemy Liu Yao still retains hold over much of the land coveted by Ce. Beyond Liu Yao lies the hated enemy, Liu Biao, slayer of Ce's father, Sun Jian. Here we begin. The legend lies before you.​


Updated to: V2.4, Patch B
Last Updated: 08/21/09


Introduction: Well, you've done it, you're now playing one of the greatest mods ever made for CIV. My goal with this guide is to ease you into the game's immersive atmosphere while explaining all the bells and whistles. I also strive to achieve a high level of quality in this guide, and will attempt to keep it up to date with each successive version. As you can probably tell, I'll be introducing you to the game with Sun Ce, also known as the Little Conqueror.

Game Setup: First of all, the game comes with several scenarios. I'd recommend the 51x51 196AD map for beginners, as it contains all the action of the others, along with a faster pace in general. I'd also highly recommend that you have the music pack installed, as nothing kills the feel of conquering China more than blatantly European medieval chanting.

Starting the Game: Ok, you've started the game up. Notice Sun Ce's traits, fairly straightforward, but also the most powerful combo in the game. War God's awesomeness will be embellished on later. Now into the actual gameplay. First thing you should see is a nice stack with your flag waving over it, standing right next to one of Liu Yao's cities. There's even a few heroes in the stack! Yep, right into the action! However, I'm going to be a nice little bore and explain the domestics first. After that we go tromping across China, smashing heads with our heroes. By all means though, skip ahead to the fun part unless you really absolutely want to know about the economy.

1.) The techs: Usually the first thing I look at when playing mods. You might be looking at the massive tech tree wondering how the heck they can break 90 something years into all that. Either way, Way of the Celestial Masters is your best bet choice at the moment as it allows you to build the equivalent of a Monastery, but called an Adviser Mansion. I'll go more into this later. After Way of the Celestial Masters, there are a few key techs that are worth focusing on. The closest priority tech would be Bridge Building not only because they're lots of rivers in the map, but also because it allows you to build Danyang Armies. Those guys, and their upgrades, are basically are the most versatile and most powerful unit for a good two-thirds of the game. The second priority tech would be Calendar. Same reasons for being good here as it is in normal CIV. Calendar is conveniently located on the same path as Bridge Building for further ease. The final and biggest priority tech is Canal. This is true for all factions, as Canal allows Levee's which give bonus hammers AND gold to riverside tiles. Yep, I said gold. +1 commerce to be exact. For Sun Ce, his UB gives +1 hammer and gold on riverside and ocean tiles. If you remember those three techs, the economy should be no problem in this game.

2.) Civics: This is going to be short. Switch to Noble School. Anything else is simply your preference. Labor Civics often allow military units to be built with food. Oh, and avoid Indifference. Government buildings are far to good in this game for you to pass up.

3.) Belief: A change from the religion system, the belief system represents what your rulers goals are. It's quite well explained in the Pedia, so I'll just so out and say Unification is the best. Revival comes close, but Unification is the best. That being said, convert to Unification right after your civics anarchy ends.

4.) Buildings: You're in the unique position of having traits and a UB that can make all coast tiles yield 3 food, 1 hammer, and 4 commerce early game, and and addition 1 hammer and commerce later on. So what are you waiting for, build river harbors in cities near the coast, followed by either Barracks or whatever suits your taste. Most of the buildings have effects similar to their CIV counterparts, though Granaries are far weaker. If you take the time to look up all the buildings that a tech allows when you get it, you should get this part of the mod down easily.

5.) The Units: The military has been completely redone in this mod, though it retains the same concepts. Halberdiers (who are essentially axemen) have the +50% vs. Mêlée and Swordsmen still get the city attack. Each unit line (Halberdier, Swordsman, Spearman ect.) has 4 levels, with each level getting 3 more strength than the previous one. Swordsmen also get an increasing large city attack bonus. For you, Sun Ce, there are the awe-inspiring Danyang Armies. These guys get +25% vs. Mêlée and Mounted, can walk on Coast, and have higher base strength than all the other units, even Cavalry. If you're playing on the 51x51 map, you don't start with any, so building them will be your first priority. On the other maps, you do (or did), allowing you to steamroll until your economy tanks. Their only drawback however, is they only get 3 tiers, making them about par with the other lategame units strength wise, while still retaining their limit of 12 and higher build cost. Cavalry have also undergone a slight tweak. They now have a promotion (Cavalry) that grants +30% withdrawal chance, +10% Grassland and Plains attack, and -40% strength in hills and -50% in forest.


War, aka Crushing others beneath the heels of your Legions

Now that you've fallen asleep reading my list of rather boring and dry tips, wipe the drool off the keyboard and start conquering! First of all, click on that nice little stack you have and select Sun Ce. After you've selected yourself hit the Form Legion button. A nice screen should pop up with a list of units to select. Here's where you look at the bottom left. You see the letters shown under "current" (the top ones)? That shows how many of that unit type you can have in your legion. Below are the max levels the hero can achieve. D is 1, C is 2, B is 3, A is 4 and S is 5. They also grant a modest bonus to the troops, so in a D level Legion for Mêlée, a Mêlée unit would get any legion promotions, plus +10% strength. A C level Legion in Mêlée would grant +15% strength boost by comparison. The best part of Legions however are that they can grant additional base strength depending on the level of vigorous the hero is promoted to. Each Hero also gets access to different Legion promotions, such as those that boost attack strength, and also special Hero Promotions that only affect the core troop, the one the hero is physically attached to. Those special hero promotions are usually very powerful and have specialized effects.
Furthermore, each Legion can only contain one unit type.

Back to Sun Ce. I'd recommend selecting a Swift Rider unit to be part of his legion, even though he has a D currently in Mounted Aptitude and a C in Mêlée. I do this in part because he can promote all the way up to an A aptitude (same as Mêlée) in Cavalry, along with the fact that his unique hero promotions are far more suited to Cavalry than to Mêlée. I would HIGHLY recommend looking at the Hero section in the Pedia at this point and just browse though all the promotions. Not only are they interesting, but the Hero portraits are quite nice.

Now we load Cheng Pu up with Mêlée units, and attack! Each time a legion member wins a battle, the hero gets experience based on how much the unit gained in battle. This means attaching a Champion to a unit in a Legion and giving it the Leadership promo will net the hero double experience from that unit too! Either way, you will defeat the pathetic garrison and defeat Taishi Ci. Taishi Ci may or may not join you, but you better hope he will, because he can sure make life difficult later on. Next move South until you hit Liu Yao's next city. Make sure your Core Troops (the ones the hero are with) don't lose in battle, because if they do, the Legion loses it's movement and suffers a strength penalty. If there are no more legion members to flee to (like in Sun Ce's case) they could suffer a serious injury. If heroes sustain enough injuries, they die. Each hero can take a different amount too. Sun Ce can take about four, so don't lose him. If you do, then your younger brother will take over the country and you can say bye bye to your traits and your best hero. If you play your cards carefully though, you can take on all the nearby civs around you with just that little starting stack.

By now you should of racked up enough xp for either Cheng Pu, Huang Gai or Sun Ce to take a hero promotion. Have fun with it, each one is good in it's own way. The red promotions will raise the aptitude of that class on level (from D to C for example), so they can be useful early on. For Sun Ce though, you're an idiot if you don't choose Conqueror, because it's the singularly most powerful promotion in the game. If something can turn 30% odds into 70% odds, I'd take that one. I will forgive you though if you did so to upgrade the Cavalry level to get that other Swift Rider in your legion.

If you do manage to knock out Yan Baihu (Shan Yue dude) and Wang Lang (Nerdy guy), you'll be set in the game. You're UU Meng Chong Ship will ensure command of the waterways, allowing you to pick and choose your targets. Just watch out for Gan Ning... did I mention a rather pissed of pirate with a nice fleet of his own? He doesn't exist. Totally ignore naval defense, then I can laugh when your fishing boats get pillaged... uh, I mean nod my head in an show of sorrow.
Do manage to defeat him though, but since his loyalty is to you, he'll join you even if somebody else employs him first.

Invade Liu Biao next though. He has great land, horrible production. Meaning: Great land, no defense. If he does manage to tech to Professional Army before you attack though, his UU will slaughter you. He's also a culture freak, so if you don't decide to attack him based on my advice, you'll be wishing you did when your citizentry are running off to enjoy tea parties at his Salons and Terraces.

Hero Promotion Tips
The big message that I'm going to try to get across is specialize. Once you start upgrading your hero down a certain Aptitude path (ei. from D to C in Mounted), stick with it. You will want to minimize the amount of those promotions you take from different unit types, because you only can have one unit type in the legion at a time. Promotions are best spend on better things such as Attack 1-3 or unique hero promotions such as Assault or Tough. For promotions, Vigourous is usually the best choice, but requires a tech requirement for each succesive level. Finally, though the Defence line might seem useless, it can come in very handy when your Legion gets hit unawares. The lack of use on offense is balanced by it preservation of your elite troops when they might otherwise have died.

Campaign Strategies:
1.) Reclaiming the Sun Family Lands - After defeating Liu Yao, immediately send Sun Ce, attached to Cavalry, to take on Yan Baihu. Speed is of essence here, as all the cities have only one or two defenders at this point. Furthermore, Cavalry will sustain less damage against the enemy Archers than swordsmen. Yan Baihu should fall to Ce's Cavalry, without taking any losses. Remember though, that Jungle inflicts 10% damage/turn along with Marsh! Next, blitz down into Wang Lang's territory after you heal and pick off the flatland cities only guarded by archers. Victory odds should be in the high 80-90's. Once Cheng Pu catches up, he can take on the hill city with his swordsmen. Usually you would lose one swordsman to the Private Guard. Now you've unified the south, and set the foundation for your empire!

2.) The Fall of Liu Biao - This may or may not be an easy conquest. Depending on when you start, Liu Biao might have his Swift Bowman
UU which gets a bonus vs. Melee and also has 2 movement. Either way, the basic troop movements are the same. Your goal is Xiang Yang, one of the eight Great Cities of the game. The city wonder itself grants improved military production, +XP to Archer units, and gives all water tiles +1 commerce. Given on how reliant your economy is upon water, this campaign would be a good choice in itself, even ignoring the whole eliminate the culture freak aspect. To achieve this conquest early, you will need several Danyang Armies and a fleet. Ideally your fleet would have been build in Mo Ling to take advantage of the free naval unit XP. The attack itself is quite simple: Sail down the river until you hit Xiang Yang, unload and attack. Use Crossbowmen promoted to Drill to inflict collateral damage, and then clean up with your Danyang Armies. Do not wait to attack Xiang Yang, as it's millitary bonii will make conquest impossible once Liu Biao starts spamming Archers that can take CG3 and Drill 2 right out of the gate. Following the conquest of Xiang Yang, leave a garrison and march your Danyang Armies south taking Chang Sha and any other lightly guarded city on the way. Next, swing North and mop up his last low production holdout on the river. After all that, Liu Biao would have lost his core territory and should fall easily.

Hero Strategies
As Sun Ce, the Little Conqueror, you command the loyalty of several capable officers each of which can take the Water Support promotion. This unique Legion promotion grants +25% Strength when fighting adjacent to a River or Coast. And there's alot of rivers in China. Officers who have loyalty toward your faction include Gan Ning, Sun Ce, Cheng Pu, Lu Meng, Huang Gai, Taishi Ci, He Qi and Sun Quan. Of those eight, Gan Ning and Sun Ce are best equipt for offence, while the rest have strong defensive abilities available to them. Lu Meng, Cheng Pu and Taishi Ci are probably the most versatile of the defensive heroes since they can promote to a high level of Vigorous, and have strong promotion choices.

I'd recommend making Sun Ce's legion a mounted one, so you can take advantage of his Flying Wedge promotion, along with the strong combination of Conqueror and Flanking. If you promote him with Cavalry General to and aptitude of A, he gets a nice bonus against archers. If his unit has Flanking, he can turn a 20% chance of success city attack into a 75% chance of win/ 15% chance of withdrawal battle. Not bad at all... Furthermore, I like having his as a Cavalry general so he can save my butt when a stack marches in from the other end of the empire.
Gan Ning on the other hand should take Infantry Commander promotions. Though he only can get up to a B aptitude in Melee, it's the most powerful class in the game, especially when combined with his Attack promotions. Remeber to take the unique Hero promotion Dread with him too. It basically saps the health of any adjacent enemies outside a city.

For defence, things are straightforward. Take the Vigourous promotions, followed by Iron Wall if available. Iron Wall ultimately will boost combat odds by around 20% on attack and keep you almost immune to damage on defence. Cheng Pu also has Reconditioning available to him, which makes him one of the most versatile generals under your command. He should be able to hold almost any defence, and performs well on prolonged seiges since he recovers health after combat. Taishi Ci, on the other hand, lacks Reconditioning but has full access to the Defence line. He is near indestructible on defence once you promote him up. Defence IV grants immunity to collateral damage, making him the perfect person to stop those mass Crossbow/Catapult attacks. Huang Gai and Sun Quan are archer generals, so are by default limited to defence. Still, it's not a bad thing, as a specially designated defence legions can make all the difference in a suprise attack.

Lu Meng is a unique case. Despite having several levels of Vigorous available to him, promote down the command line. Why you may ask? Since his unique promotion Mature Late gives half experience before level 5 and double afterward, you want as many legion members racking up experience as soon as possible. If it takes too long to get him to mature, he may never develop to him full potential.


Miscellaneous Stuff: Notice how Liu Biao hates you? Apparently he's still pissed off that your dad stole the Imperial Jade Seal... I guess killing him wasn't enough revenge. Don't worry though, if you ever play Liu Biao, Sun Ce will hate you with all of -5 diplo points. I guess revenge really does come second to a few bribes...

Also, everyone hates Yuan Shu, so don't do anything nice to him, or trade for that matter. He's always gets quadrupled teamed by everyone around him, but his captain Ji Ling gains quite alot of experience defending. It is quite worthwhile to sweep in and administer the killing blow to get Ji Ling to surrender to your forces.

Danyang trades for everything. I mean everything. It is valued as it should be by the AI, so they give you plenty of resources for it. You start with two by the way. It's quite useful in pitting Yuan Shao and Cao Cao against eachother. They will be strong, so trade it to the slightly weaker one to ensure their wars against eachother are all that more destructive.


Note: This guide is still in a very early stage. It will be modified and improved on (hopefully so it's more than a bunch of tips and facts), so if you have any comments or questions, please tell me. I don't care if you think I need to shorten it, expand on this or that, just tell me! Even if it's that your guide is horrible, your writing style sucks and your should never utter another word of advice again... or wait, actually, I think I might care if you said that, but you get the point. Thanks!
 
(not directly a strategy question but not worth its own thread)

The heroes have a vitality count. Is it true that this is the same as a "number of lives"? That is, suppose hero X has a vitality of 10. His core unit gets killed. The unit for X stays in the game but its vitality is decreased by 1. If this happens a few times and X's vitality goes to zero, *then* the unit is eliminated. Is the vitality mechanism more complex than that?

My question is, does the AI for the unit do anything special in considering its vitality? Does the unit take fewer risks as its vitality drops? Or is it just considered as a normal unit and if it dies, it dies?

This is related to a common request for a "Regicide" type game. In several mods, people have suggested it would be neat to have a single leader unit, and if the unit is killed, you lose the game. Obviously this only works if (1) the unit has a high offensive power so you don't just park it in your capital, and (2) the AI knows not to take silly risks with the unit.

So I am wondering if the HOTK hero AI takes its mortality into account.
 
@Kenjister

Awesome! Now tell me where do you want me to put you nice guide? My take is I'm going to translate it into Chinese as well and put it into civilopedia:)

@davidlallen

Yes, the heroes' vitality count are about the same as number of lives, but when a hero is defeated in combat, he only has a small chance of taking an injury. Right now, our hero AI don't take into account of vitality at all. Part of the reason is hero AI has a lot of room of improvement, and taking vitality into account is not our top priority, the other part of the reason is vitality is hidden, it shouldn't be visible to both AI and human player, because a man don't know how long he will live.

I do agree with you in the future we may implement special AI for some of the less aggressive heroes, as well as some leader heroes who are not fighters, just to simulate their tendency to protect themselves from the risk of combat.
 
Thanks! I might still want to add a few more things that people might not notice at first (such as the Hero Screen, the Info section of that, and a nice reminder about the enhanced advisors)
I would feel bad if you did any sort of translation, and then I updated it. Anyhow, I probably would make some major changes with the next version, since there seems to be a rather large influx of heroes coming :)
 
Sha Mo Ke's initial Rattan army, led by Meng Huo, can kill almost anything in early game. Singlehandedly, he conquered the 2 Liu Biao cities south of the river, and all of the cities up till Danyang. Sure, it takes time, but correctly promoted (e.g. healing on the road, city attack and against archers and infantry, with stealth), he's invincible.
 
I noticed that too, the only problem being your horrible economy...

Right now I'm playing a Ma Teng game (prince, due to the horrible land) and maybe I'll notice something nice to write up on.
 
1. World Wonders are a waste of time (if you can get them, well and good, but especially on the higher levels, it is not worthwhile to chase after them).
2. What is important is 8 good cities--conquer and hold on to them by whatever means, even if it means sacrificing science. Diffusion of knowledge later on will allow you to build infrastructure.
3. Blades is important early on for cultural slider. Stop science after Wei And Jin's Grace.
4. Usual 4 cultural cities will be
a. Capital
b. conquered capital of another faction (hopefully with a shrine)--bomb great artists here.
c. your most productive city (hammers later turned into culture)--early forge/levee/metal bureau, either forbidden palace or Chu Shi Biao (due to mines giving specialists), and iron and salt bureau here.
d. your most financial city (build both resting palace and Royal reference here for generating great artists).
5. Assign all artists early on, if a great minister spawns, use him to build a national wonder in a less productive city.
6. And it doesn't matter if you don't have cultural attributes or are called Wuling barbarians. :lol:
 
Nice guide on cultural AP... what do usually do though when a major power comes knocking?
at least if your south of the yangtze you don't have to worry about Yuan Shao and Cao Cao. Sun Ce's pretty dangerous though with his Danyang Swarms.
 
Well, you can defend in critical points (like Liu Zhang who got declared on by Ma Teng), or involve Sun Ce in wars he can't win (against Liu Biao). Just let other people fight their little wars and leave you in peace.
From my first win for this patch with Liu Zhang (emperor) in 212 AD using the 194 AD start in normal speed, the cities were
a. Chengdu
b. Hanzhong
c. Ba Xi
d. Fu ling

All according to the scheme above.
 
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