2020 US Election (Part Two)

[hobbsyoyo]

Yeah, I have to disagree with this. Democrats should have refused to concede anything in the bill to Republicans. The Republicans are in power, they are going to be blamed for any failure to take action on this.

At what cost?

I'm all for the Democrats playing hardball to the greatest extent possible, but at the end of the day when we're talking Covid/economic response, we're talking about over 100k dead and huge chunks of the country unable to pay rent. I don't really care who would come out looking worse in a standoff over a failed stimulus package if that means more death and economic ruin.

Unfortunately though, this is how the GOP seems to succeed legislatively - they hold the needs of the entire country hostage to force concessions because at the end of the day the Democrats blink and offer concessions just to keep things functioning. In ordinary times I'd be fine with pushing back fiercely and whatnot but these aren't ordinary times and the stakes a much higher than just having the government shut down or whatever.

--------------

Unrelated to the above quote but related to earlier conversation:
I also think we should not read too much into the notion that the GOP has been unduly rewarded for obstruction. It is clearly a thing, but we should keep in mind just how badly gerrymandered the House and state legislative districts are. The GOP got more seats with less votes in 2014 than the democrats did in 2018. The spread was something like 1/3 more seats for a 50% lower margin (not total votes, just margin) between 2014 and 2018. Trump won in 2016 due to a fluke in how our racist Electoral College is structured, not because he had overwhelming appeal. He still lost the popular vote by a lot.

That said, the GOP brand is obstruction and it does appeal to their base and get them votes and I don't think it should be ignored. But I think it is a bit overblown as an electoral force by leaving out the structural issues that favor the GOP that have nothing to do whatsoever with their politics. Obstruction works for them legislatively as I said above, but only sometimes, and I do not think it is as strongly correlated with electoral victory as we might think unless you strip out the above context vis a vis structural issues.

I also doubt that mirroring GOP obstruction by the Democrats will appeal to their base. Going back to my earlier point, 'At what cost?', at the end of the day I would rather avoid total economic ruin and megadeath even if it means compromising with robber barons in the GOP and giving away concessions to their billionaire overlords. I suspect much of the progressive and left-leaning centrists agree with that rather than a no-holds-barred, obstruct at all cost approach (a la the GOP tactic).

At the end of the day we can also see where such obstructionism ultimately leads - right now the GOP can't even agree among themselves on what they want despite the pressing need to pass some sort of stimulus package. This isn't even new, the obstruction of the GOP has been as much about their inability to agree among themselves as much as it has been about stopping the Democrats going back to the rise of the Tea Party. I do not really desire to see a progressive wing of Democrats acting in a similar manner even though ideologically I side with them.

 

[Lexicus]

At what cost?

Whatever the cost, it will be greater if Republicans retain control of the Senate and greater still if Trump is reelected.

 

[Kyriakos]

You know, I hope Trump leaves in November (January), cause if not... things are set to get a lot worse.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Whatever the cost, it will be greater if Republicans retain control of the Senate and greater still if Trump is reelected.

Well now I'm depressed because you're probably not wrong

You know, I hope Trump leaves in November (January), cause if not... things are set to get a lot worse.

I actually sometimes worry about all the talk of Trump trying to illegally stay in office after losing the election because I worry it is giving his side ideas to wargame out the coup before hand. Meanwhile I haven't really seen the other side take the threat seriously even as we all fear he's going to mount an attempt.

 

[Kyriakos]

Welcome back, Hobbs!

 

[EnglishEdward]

we all fear he's going to mount an attempt.

Well speak for yourself. I for one have no such fear.
And I dare say there are others not typing themslves into a tin foil hat.

Still If you enjoy your paranoia, I refer you to:

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ump-loses-election-what-happens-possibilities

 

[innonimatu]

Better than the regime that prevailed before. Without it, it's difficult to imagine my younger brother (as just one of many examples), with a slew of "preexisting conditions", ever being able to get health insurance.
I'm not really interested in getting into a whole thing to defend the ACA, because obviously I support Medicare-for-All or something similar, but I think Europeans in particular may not have a good sense of just how utterly awful the pre-ACA situation was.

That is one blind spot I have, considering what @Ajidica and you say.

 

[rah]

Most governors and mayors have health specialists on hand to handle medical questions at press conferences or state of the day virus updates.
Trump refuses to have any so he can make up any answer he wants to medical questions and not be challenged. It's really sad.

If he wasn't down in the polls he'd still be part of the no mask crowd. And probably still a virus denier.

 

[Ferocitus]

Well speak for yourself. I for one have no such fear.
And I dare say there are others not typing themslves into a tin foil hat.

Still If you enjoy your paranoia, I refer you to:

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ump-loses-election-what-happens-possibilities

They aren't all tinfoilers.
There are many Dem strategists and analysts and several law faculties that are wargaming a variety of scenarios.

My personal favourite is that Trump has mentioned special undisclosed emergency powers.

9 June 2020:
...
The president could also declare a state of emergency on national security grounds in response to
foreign-sponsored attempts at digital interference with the election system, which we know are already
underway, according to intelligence officials.
...
And these are just some of the emergency powers we know about. The president has boasted of special but
undisclosed emergency powers, and his son-in-law has openly questioned whether the election would be
held on schedule. It may be true that the president’s rhetoric tends to exceed his actions, but the
president’s mention of secret emergency powers should be concerning to anyone watching this election.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/06/09/donald-trump-chaos-election-309894


Trump's reason for refusing to concede could also be something far less sinister - a set of
SNAFUs that take several weeks or months to sort out.

From a Politico article last Friday:

8 Big Reasons Election Day 2020 Could Be a Disaster
You may think you know how bad Nov. 3 will be. But all signs point to something far, far worse.
...
According to a POLITICO survey, at least 14 states have rushed to upgrade systems in the wake of the
2016 election—meaning that millions of voters and poll workers will face new machines come Election Day.
An example of what can go wrong unfolded last fall in Northampton County, Pennsylvania, when workers
incorrectly programmed new machines; voters accused the machines of mis-registering their votes, the
machines failed to count votes for one of the candidates entirely, and officials found that voters took
three times longer on the new equipment than they did just marking paper ballots.
...
Taken together, experts are anticipating an election in which it’s harder to vote, harder to count the
votes, less clear who’s won, and more unpredictable than any election Americans have lived through.
And that’s if everything goes smoothly.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/07/24/2020-election-disaster-perfect-storm-372778

 

[uppi]

That said, the GOP brand is obstruction and it does appeal to their base and get them votes and I don't think it should be ignored. But I think it is a bit overblown as an electoral force by leaving out the structural issues that favor the GOP that have nothing to do whatsoever with their politics. Obstruction works for them legislatively as I said above, but only sometimes, and I do not think it is as strongly correlated with electoral victory as we might think unless you strip out the above context vis a vis structural issues.

But obstruction is also the very tool they use to keep those structural issues in place. A government dedicated to solving problems might solve the problem that Republicans keep getting elected despite commanding a minority of the vote.

If a minority of the population gets control of the majority, it is in their best interest to obstruct progress as much as possible in order to keep the structural advantage they have.

 

[Takhisis]

Link?

I just peruse Faux News live on the telly every few days.

Oh, that’s rich. Coming from one of the supreme gutless wonders of CFCOT. Those 9% seem to be the only people left in America void of brain worms. It takes balls to go against the advertising, the media and societal peer pressure of the 91% proven hypocrites who happily clapily will own themselves in the face for the 10th election in a row in order to fit in, be able to read a political pamphlet, parrot it online and make pretend they understand.

There are no braves, or Zulu warriors for that matter, in line to support Joe Biden. Maybe you should have some self-awareness and cut in a surprised Steve Urkel avatar.

Anyone who looks at the US right now and concludes that the Democrats and Republicans are equally bad is, for all intents and purposes, a Republican.

The clamour has forced the current Democrat presidential campaign to at least promise to nominate a woman for VP, endorse a green new deal and saying that Black Lives Matter. The Republicans are acting like GTA Vice City villains: pay peple to dump toxic waste near schools, tax the poor, give tax cuts to the rich, actively endorse the police killing the aforementioned Blacks, and would rather women stayed in the kitchen.
Nobody's saying that the DNC is the best party ever™, but there's a difference of orders of magnitude here.

 

[El_Machinae]

If you don't think it's going to be one of the most acrimonious transitions of all time, I don't think you've been paying attention. He's been building resentment towards the election even before the last one.

This is a person who lied about the size of his Electoral College victory months after the election, and then who uses Russia Today as a source of mud to sling

 

[IglooDame]

This is an opinion piece in the National Review about Trump trying to bypass election results. National Review lately is about 60-40 pro-Trump, broadly speaking (but is straight line conservative in opinion overall).

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020...tent=featured-content-trending&utm_term=first

 

[GenMarshall]

This is an opinion piece in the National Review about Trump trying to bypass election results. National Review lately is about 60-40 pro-Trump, broadly speaking (but is straight line conservative in opinion overall).

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020...tent=featured-content-trending&utm_term=first

This comes to a question on what to do if Biden wins both the electoral college and the popular vote and Trump makes a claim that the votes are rigged and fraudulent? It's not like the secret service and the federal police would boot him out since this would be the first time this happened in US history.

 

[Samson]

This is an opinion piece in the National Review about Trump trying to bypass election results. National Review lately is about 60-40 pro-Trump, broadly speaking (but is straight line conservative in opinion overall).

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020...tent=featured-content-trending&utm_term=first

This does not seem very honest:
1:

Of course, Trump is not saying he won’t abide by the result; only that he won’t concede at this point that it will be an honest result.

Asked if this means that he will not accept the election results, Trump said, “No. I have to see.”
Asked again if he would accept the results, Trump said, “No, I’m not going to just say yes. I’m not going to say no, and I didn’t last time either.”

Fox
2:
In a generally well referenced article, it stands out that "there is immense reason for concern about mail-in ballots" has no justification.
3:

Under the 20th Amendment to the Constitution, which was ratified in 1933, the president’s term “shall end at noon on the 20th day of January.” At that point, if he has lost the election, Donald Trump would no longer be the president of the United States. Period. His personal feelings about how the loss came to pass, and whether he did or did not regard the result as legitimate, would be irrelevant. Under the Constitution, he would neither be president nor wield the powers of the presidency as of that moment.

No mention that then it comes to an [act of law, is that the term], and there is nothing in the constitution saying that that act cannot be be Trump stays.

 

[tuckerkao]

No mention that then it comes to an [act of law, is that the term], and there is nothing in the constitution saying that that act cannot be be Trump stays.

As soon as Trump's term ends, he will no longer be the U.S. President. The White House thus becomes the property of the newly elected President after the formal inauguration. If Trump stays overtime, he can be arrested for trespassing the property.

If you have sold your house to another owner, it's illegal to stay in that house any longer beyond the contracts.

This comes to a question on what to do if Biden wins both the electoral college and the popular vote and Trump makes a claim that the votes are rigged and fraudulent? It's not like the secret service and the federal police would boot him out since this would be the first time this happened in US history.

Any rigged results or fraudulent activities must be proven before all the electoral votes cast in official. Once the deadline passed, Trump won't be able to overturn the case. Bush defeated Gore by only 537 votes in Florida in 2000. Once the Supreme ruled the final result, Gore couldn't keep filing the fraud claims.

 

[Takhisis]

I'm pretty much sure that the White House is the property of the US government.

 

[IglooDame]

This comes to a question on what to do if Biden wins both the electoral college and the popular vote and Trump makes a claim that the votes are rigged and fraudulent? It's not like the secret service and the federal police would boot him out since this would be the first time this happened in US history.

Following the nationwide presidential election, which takes place the Tuesday after the first Monday of November, each state counts its popular votes according to that state's laws to designate presidential electors. In forty-eight states and D.C., the winner of the plurality of the statewide vote receives all of that state's electors; in Maine and Nebraska, two electors are assigned in this manner and the remaining electors are allocated based on the plurality of votes in each congressional district.[7] Some states require electors to vote for the candidate who won the popular election in that state.[8] Each state's electors meet in their respective state capital on the first Monday after the second Wednesday of December to cast their votes.[7] The results are counted by Congress, where they are tabulated in the first week of January before a joint meeting of the Senate and House of Representatives, presided over by the vice president, acting as president of the Senate.[7] If a majority of votes are not cast for a candidate, the House turns itself into a presidential election session, where one vote is assigned to each of the fifty states.

So let's think about how this could get derailed in a circumstance where Biden has clearly won, as of the morning after Election Day (i.e. the victory margin is greater than say 40 EC votes and none of the bigger states are close enough for recounts). The state's electors meet in each state capital Dec 14th and cast their votes. So between Nov 3rd and Dec 14th, each state has to sort itself out. I can't see any Biden delegates refusing to vote for Biden because of any voting irregularities. The only thing I can see is a red-state government with an overtly Republican state governor and legislature trying to prevent the EC delegates from gathering and voting.

Assuming the EC process part goes through, Congress tabulates the results. Note here that the count is on Jan 6th - after the new Reps and Senators are sworn in on Jan 3rd, which might mean the Senate now has a Dem majority too. So Vice President Pence is presiding, and if they have somehow negated enough Biden EC delegates, "the House becomes a presidential election session, with one vote for each of the 50 states" (which I'm guessing will favor lower-population red states as the EC itself does). At that point, it's safe to assume the US will have started its Second Civil War.

But if that count on 6th of January shows a Biden win, then Trump's options to my mind drop to departing the White House with his shield or upon it. Personally I think if Pence presides over that EC counting and doesn't veer from process at that point, then Trump's departure will be uneventful by Trump standards.

 

[Imaus]

Trump wants a 2000 court repeat. He's not going to do a self-coup...well...2000 sort of was, in some circles...but ya know, they are sticking to their BS line of 'law and order'. If the courts, and his party, tell him to go, he'll go. He'll be a hero to 40% of the population none the less and his family will be royalty to somebody, even if the Republican party tries to dismantle Trumpism. But he will try to play every trick in the book to do so - and it's in the books, so it's no biggie; as we're seeing with Trump and the Federal Forces he's throwing about willy nilly.

Because trust me, if they didn't give a damn for the book but lip-service, this would be a lot worse.

 

[Patine]

As soon as Trump's term ends, he will no longer be the U.S. President. The White House thus becomes the property of the newly elected President after the formal inauguration. If Trump stays overtime, he can be arrested for trespassing the property.

If you have sold your house to another owner, it's illegal to stay in that house any longer beyond the contracts.


Any rigged results or fraudulent activities must be proven before all the electoral votes cast in official. Once the deadline passed, Trump won't be able to overturn the case. Bush defeated Gore by only 537 votes in Florida in 2000. Once the Supreme ruled the final result, Gore couldn't keep filing the fraud claims.

I'm pretty much sure that the White House is the property of the US government.

The King of Saudi Arabia and the President of the United Arab Emirates (whose also the Emir of Abu Dhabi, one of the seven United Emirates), and possibly the Sultan of Brunei, Sultan of Oman, King of Bhutan, King of Swaziland, and King of Tonga, are the only national chief executive in the world today whom I believe actually own their official residences of state through personal propriety during their tenure.