Farm Boy
run boy run
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Honestly that kind of thing is easy enough for people not in any of the high-risk groups to say.
Oh, it takes more than that Aimee.
COVID-19 virus thread (formerly Wuhan coronavirus)
- Thread starter aimeeandbeatles
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Oh, it takes more than that Aimee.
I mean, I'm okay with a few weeks of this, but if the alternative is a year or more, I'd prefer to voluntarily get infected and isolated even with the guarantee of no medical care for myself.
I'm certainly more useful to my elderly parents as someone who's immune than as someone who can't see them.
After appearing to level off for a few days around 3/15, Italian cases have resumed their exponential climb. The doubling time is about 4.5 days starting at 3/16. Hopefully this has more to do with new testing than with exponential spread continuing after the lockdown began. If the rate of transmission doesn't leave the exponential trend within a week or so, I'll be forced to conclude that the lockdown measures failed to get R0 < 1. That would be a really bad sign for other Western countries.
Timsup2nothin
Deity
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LA County shut down before the governor did...and even though you aren't in LA county that is where most of your traffic is going. But, optimism springs eternal, maybe people have gotten philosophy and are doing what they should other than through fear of the law.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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- Dec 4, 2006
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International solidarity in action. It's each country for itself, and the civilized niceties of commerce or diplomacy are sorted later!
Italy was very far gone when they started acting more seriously. So were other countries, I fear. Not fully closing borders and imposing quarantines there was insanity. This may be, as you say, the huge number of not recognized cases showing up. The high death rate there already hinted at this extensive spread of the virus.
On more positive news, it appears that Japan has it under control.
If this was, is, to be stopped, it must be done on all fronts, with isolation, breaking the problem into manageable portions. While there are still stocks and capability to do it. Precious time was wasted, those are running down.
People do not have to be forced to remain at home, social distancing can work, but events must be suspended, gatherings must be suspended, and inter-regional traveling must be shut down ENTIRELY for anything but life-critical trips. That Europe of all places, which still has borders that could easily be enforced, persists in failing to do it is infuriating! Time is running out, either governments do it this week (and in larger countries such as Italy that requires inter-regional barriers also or it's game over. In Italy and Spain either they're already doing it or it's lost. I don't have information on how effectively that is being done.
After appearing to level off for a few days around 3/15, Italian cases have resumed their exponential climb. The doubling time is about 4.5 days starting at 3/16. Hopefully this has more to do with new testing than with exponential spread continuing after the lockdown began. If the rate of transmission doesn't leave the exponential trend within a week or so, I'll be forced to conclude that the lockdown measures failed to get R0 < 1. That would be a really bad sign for other Western countries.
Italy was very far gone when they started acting more seriously. So were other countries, I fear. Not fully closing borders and imposing quarantines there was insanity. This may be, as you say, the huge number of not recognized cases showing up. The high death rate there already hinted at this extensive spread of the virus.
On more positive news, it appears that Japan has it under control.
If this was, is, to be stopped, it must be done on all fronts, with isolation, breaking the problem into manageable portions. While there are still stocks and capability to do it. Precious time was wasted, those are running down.
People do not have to be forced to remain at home, social distancing can work, but events must be suspended, gatherings must be suspended, and inter-regional traveling must be shut down ENTIRELY for anything but life-critical trips. That Europe of all places, which still has borders that could easily be enforced, persists in failing to do it is infuriating! Time is running out, either governments do it this week (and in larger countries such as Italy that requires inter-regional barriers also or it's game over. In Italy and Spain either they're already doing it or it's lost. I don't have information on how effectively that is being done.
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Zardnaar
Deity
They're not sure you won't catch it again though.
Worst case scenario no vaccine and it becomes seasonal.
We might have to wind back the last 80 odd years of progress and cone up with a new economic system.
By that I mean who gets what jobs and who gets what without jobs.
give it some more time. IIRC both South Korea and China needed 14-15 days until the lockdown started to show any effect. Unless I'm mistaken Italy is "only" at day 13 atm.After appearing to level off for a few days around 3/15, Italian cases have resumed their exponential climb. The doubling time is about 4.5 days starting at 3/16. Hopefully this has more to do with new testing than with exponential spread continuing after the lockdown began. If the rate of transmission doesn't leave the exponential trend within a week or so, I'll be forced to conclude that the lockdown measures failed to get R0 < 1. That would be a really bad sign for other Western countries.
You won't in the short term, that would be good enough for me.
Send me a syringe of live virus every six months and I'll re-inject myself while I still have some immunity.
And they do!
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/coronavirus/article241279361.html
5 million respirator masks should be able to keep all our doctors and nurses safe from catching anything. (I think)
Woops, we are still screwed.
I did not realize the scale of the problem.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/st...ges-ventilators-medical-supplies-warned-about
Thanks Obama.
EnglishEdward
Deity
The UK government is criticised for acting slowly, and by recommendation rather than by command;
but I suspect that, if it had tried to act decisively instantly, the UK courts would have found that illegal.
I suspect the awareness of that has contributed to hesitation and the tentativeness of measures.
If the UK had left the EU on 31 October 2019 and without signing a so-called "withdrawal
agreement", and the EU had blocked UK airlines and barred overflights by UK airlines
as threatened by the euro hardliners, the UK would be in a very much better position.
No doubt the virus would've crossed the Atlantic via the USA, but it'd have taken longer.
Not even close, lol. The only reason it acted slowly is because Cummings was convinced that a vaccine-free herd immunity would mythically emerge and was only convinced otherwise this month by the Italy's unfortunate increase in cases.
EnglishEdward
Deity
What Dominic Cummings believes is irrelevant because he is not an epidemiologist
and he is regarded as irrelevant on this topic, by all except the Press and Remainers.
Uttered thoughts by the medical community that herd immunity might automatically
arise by next winter (2020/2021) after 60-80% of the population were infected were
merely about when the death toll might drop and the over loading on the NHS might end.
and he is regarded as irrelevant on this topic, by all except the Press and Remainers.
Uttered thoughts by the medical community that herd immunity might automatically
arise by next winter (2020/2021) after 60-80% of the population were infected were
merely about when the death toll might drop and the over loading on the NHS might end.
The fact remains that Cummings has clout and thus influence in Westminster, especially in the currently-ruling party, and as such you can pretend he's irrelevant but that doesn't make him so
EnglishEdward
Deity
Much as many Remainers wish to see him as an evil Rasputin
figure, I think he has little influence outside of the Brexit matter.
In case you have not noticed Boris Johnson is taking advice
from the Chief Scientific Officer and medics etc re Covid 19.
figure, I think he has little influence outside of the Brexit matter.
In case you have not noticed Boris Johnson is taking advice
from the Chief Scientific Officer and medics etc re Covid 19.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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Those advisors were saying, and Boris was believing, that 70% of the population should get infected! The "herd immunity" thing was government policy, until it wasn't. It was incompetents advising fools.
aelf
Ashen One
I mean, you can either focus on eliminating the exotic meat market now, which is plausible, or try and convert the meat eaters of the world. I think there's one battle that can be fought and won in the near future.
For some reason I thought the lockdown had started sooner, around March 1 or 2 instead of March 9 when it actually occurred. I found an article showing cases in Lodi (locked down Feb 24) vs Bergamo (no lockdown until Mar 9), In Lodi, the lockdown seems to have reduced R0 to approximately 1, with linear growth instead of exponential growth since then. That's good, but they're really going to have to get to substantially less than 1 for this to subside in a reasonable amount of time, as will everyone else of course. The more restrictive lockdown recently imposed in Lombardy might help bring R0 enough below 1 though. I do expect at least a reduction in the rate of new case detection in the next week but I don't know that the prevention of disease spread in Europe or the US is going to be anywhere near as effective as in most of East Asia, at least until the number of cases is far higher still.
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