I've played through about two dozen games, all on average difficulty, and the AI has always been slaughtered by their REF. (Although I usually help out by taking a couple of their choicest cities myself.) Essentially an AI colony will try to take all of the political founding fathers while I build my economy. Then the AI colony declares independence without an adequate economic base and gets slaughtered.
Is the AI ever an actual threat to beat you to independence?
Is the AI ever an actual threat to beat you to independence?