General discussion for civics

all the US has to do is stop drugrolling south america a little bit and let it develop just a smidge
The US isn't drugrolling to undermine South America, it's to ensure that the pro US/Globalist sides win in these conflicts without letting hostile forces maintain power over these regions. The drugs aren't to destabilize, they are to fund the militaries we want winning. The destabilization unfortunately takes place here where our secret importation policies create rival criminal power organizations that then need to be carefully managed in secrecy and eventually shut down while they fight to survive, having taken on lives of their own. We fund our agenda without even asking the people if we should because we know the people won't care about the big picture of our overall strategic wellbeing enough to be willing to put funding where we feel it's necessary. Besides that, large nations just nibbling to take in their neighbors, unopposed because of their ability to intimidate fairly equal rivals is simply not acceptable practice, or at least shouldn't be. If it was, we could've been nibbling at Mexico for decades. Why not? Why not just take Cuba in rather than let them sit there off our shores? Why not Haitti, the Dominican Republic, all the islands not owned by European nations? What stops us?

I've said before that a geopolitical entity with the manufacturing capabilities of europe and the resources of Russia would be dominating - well, imagine a geopolitical entity with the manufacturing capabilties AND the manpower of China and the resources of Russia.
Don't underestimate the manufacturing strength of NK included in that, and maybe even India.

Yes well if we go to war with China money would be the least of our problems.
You do accurately break it down well to show why we're bringing home a lot of manufacturing these days, at least the more critical things military related. However, don't underestimate the power of causing mass havoc and chaos in a nation's financial system as a prelude to warfare. Massive unrest is of no benefit to a nation at war. China doesn't play around nor ignore any kind of possible advantage, and there's a lot more in regards to espionage benefit to be said about tracking all keystrokes on users that go do things linked from a site that lets people personally televise and distribute an ongoing modern conflicts, wherever they are taking place. We report everything about ourselves to social media.

But yes, our ability to match them in a long term productivity sense would be reeling from the opening moments of such a conflict and would be a painful wound we've opened ourselves up for. Rather clever of them to say to us then, 'we would be more content to not invade our neighbors if we could get more of your manufacturing business...'
 
Eventually, the US federal government is going to have to accept that you can't have a fully independent private sector AND control over your supply chains.

I can't wait for the 50s to be back.
 
Eventually, the US federal government is going to have to accept that you can't have a fully independent private sector AND control over your supply chains.

I can't wait for the 50s to be back.
Yes, interventionism + protectionism is good with everything.
 
However, don't underestimate the power of causing mass havoc and chaos in a nation's financial system as a prelude to warfare. Massive unrest is of no benefit to a nation at war.

There would be massive unrest regardless of whether or not they steal money. Because as soon as it's broadcast in downtown Time Square in NYC and all across social media that we're at war, there'll be massive panic as people suddenly fear the reinstatement of the draft and the possibility of ICBMs with nuclear warheads being launched if the war doesn't end soon. That alone would create existential dread and possibly riots, propaganda from both sides being posted on the social media wouldn't help either.

Now in the case of a hack attack that tries to disrupt the banking system, you think we don't already know the passwords of their people as well? We probably have the same capability, and if they escalate and use theirs first we then respond in kind and further escalate. And then from there it could technically escalate until one side experiences significant damage whereby they have no choice but to launch nukes in order to properly counter-escalate. Once that happens we really shouldn't worry because we'd just die essentially once the ICBMs are going, you don't want to be a survivor in a post nuclear wasteland trust me. Death is preferable.
 
Honestly we should just abandon our guarantees of protection for the Taiwanese. They are simply not worth the struggle, we no longer have the capability, and Taiwanese defense was only pragmatic in the 1950s. Ever since Nixon recognized the reds as the true Chinese, Taiwan lost all legitimacy under the one China policy. No formal treaty exists either, merely a protocol anyway.
Biden is the first president in US history to declare that the US would militarily protect Taiwan if it were attacked, a departure from a long-held US foreign policy position of strategic ambiguity. The Taiwan relation act was never a formal guarantee of Taiwan's security, neither Taipei nor Beijing has ever been sure how the US would react if PRC took military action against ROC due to the US being intentionally vague about it to both sides since the US recognized that Taiwan is a province of PRC in 1972 when the US enacted its one china policy.

I agree with you that nothing good would come from the US provoking a war with China like it seems has been the US goal since at least 2016.
 
Yes, interventionism + protectionism is good with everything.
It's not so much that it is good, it's that you can't have a global market with local rules; capital freedom with personal boundaries; taxfree trade with differently taxed labor; and so on and so on.
Within the Eurozone we now have more divergence than when it was created. Poorer countries got even more poor, richer countries got richer. Without corrective means, a global economy is not going to work well for people.
 
Oh it goes back way before 2016. Remember Obama was trying to contest China's claims in the South China Sea before that.
Fair nuff, the US has militarily been challenging China all along, to surround, contain and finally neutralize it through hybrid warfare like it does to anyone that doesn't submit to its will.
I chose 2016 as a significant date as that's when the ROC pro-independence party won with funding and vocal support from the US; it did mark a significant escalation point, and it marked the point when relations between China and Taiwan went from improving year by year to deteriorating year by year, a change in direction so to speak; it also directly led to a braver US military presence in Taiwan. Though to pick out some date when the US got ambitions for a specific future war is very debatable and definitely somewhat hopeless (exercise in futility) as the US seems to bully everyone all the time, i.e. what qualifies as "normal" brinkmanship vs actual intentions for kinetic confrontation.
 
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I agree with you that nothing good would come from the US provoking a war with China like it seems has been the US goal since at least 2016.
Again, and I think I said it in Discord, I see this just a little differently though you make a good point about your belief that this would be a bit like if Hawaii tried to secede from the union and if China was then to jump in and promise military repercussions if we didn't let them, but... I kinda see this more like we're saying (and yes, sadly it's probably more due to economic interests than moral ones), "If you do to Taiwan what you did to Tibet, we're no longer going to sit there and watch it happen." What they did to Tibet was an unquestionable and unforgivable evil and it kills me that it takes a small victim nation like that to have some economic reason for us to stage a stand for those people but I get that it may not be worth so much death to make a stand.
Fair nuff, the US has militarily been challenging China all along, to surround, contain and finally neutralize it through hybrid warfare like it does to anyone that doesn't submit to its will.
And again, a little different than thinking of it as 'anyone that doesn't submit' so much as those nations that "show they don't care to operate with integrity." And once more, it would stand stronger if we could look properly in the mirror about our own integrity as well, yes.


At least this time, rather than saying, as we did to Saddam, 'who cares if you invade your lesser neighbor, it's none of our business', which was historically an amazingly baited statement diplomatically, we're admitting, "yeah, that's not going to work for us because invading your neighbor is just flat out wrong." One can say that we stock lots of military next to those we're trying to 'provoke' because we 'want' war, but I see that instead as we're trying to let those regions know it's not going to go without immediate and well planned response if they violate the integrity of a recognized nation's sovereignty. It's like, if you don't do it, no problem. If you do, problem.

I don't see deterrence threat as the same as provocation. At all.
 
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At least this time, rather than saying, as we did to Saddam, 'who cares if you invade your lesser neighbor, it's none of our business', which was historically an amazingly baited statement diplomatically, we're admitting, "yeah, that's not going to work for us because invading your neighbor is just flat out wrong."
Not sure what your point is, are you saying the gulf war was a rational, justified or proportional reaction to a 2 day regional conflict where about 700 people died?

I.e. "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War" was a rational, justified or proportional reaction to "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_invasion_of_Kuwait"?
One can say that we stock lots of military next to those we're trying to 'provoke' because we 'want' war, but I see that instead as we're trying to let those regions know it's not going to go without immediate and well planned response if they violate the integrity of a recognized nation's sovereignty. It's like, if you don't do it, no problem. If you do, problem.
Strategic ambiguity did that without making China consider the option of invading Taiwan. The departure from strategic ambiguity is the only reason why China is considering a military solution as they cannot accept Taiwan becoming an unsinkable airforce carrier for the US armed forces which are already surrounding China to a -in their view- worrying degree. China showed no sign to consider military solutions to the Taiwan question until the US started to assert its military presence there post 2016, until the US made it clear that their ambition for Taiwan were to abandon their one china policy and support their sovereignty openly with the goal of making it yet another military ally of the US close to China. On the contrary the relation between China and Taiwan was at an historic high in 2015. US escalation is the reason why China is considering a military option, not the other way around. That's my view on the matter, it's of course ok to disagree, I just want to voice my perspective as its a perspective that imo is too hastily ignored/dismissed in the western echo-chambers, and I think it's important that it is part of the discussion.
 
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Not sure what your point is, are you saying the gulf war was a rational, justified or proportional reaction to a 2 day regional conflict where about 700 people died?
It was an action we baited Saddam into by telling him we would not respond to his invasion, knowing full well we would. We lied to enable him a false sense of security that he could invade Kuwait without repercussions because he had been too successful at establishing socialism after we put him in power.

So when he did invade, thinking we'd said that'd be fine with us, we demonized him widely for it and came to Kuwait's rescue. Had we been honest, we'd have told him that we'd obviously not support a major economic ally being invaded just because he wanted more sources of oil and strategic access to a larger ocean port. In a lot of ways, he still thought of us as a friendly nation until we revealed our actual intent was to bait him into a diplomatic mis-step, which was also much the same as what we did when we told him to go ahead and use biowarfare on his border with Iran that we then called him despicable for since the gas harmed many of his own on his side.

As for whether it was a rational, justified or proportional reaction... I suppose if you're going to go to war, IMO, NEVER do it half-assed. There is no excuse for not getting in and getting it done at top speed so I'm a rather large supporter of shock and awe and overwhelming display of force. The justification is either there or it isn't, and in a modern world, obviously invasion should never be ok so yes, it was justified to liberate a sovereign nation that was unjustly invaded. What wasn't justified was that we said we'd ignore it if he did. To add to the justification was that for the most part, no previous war had been waged with such precision to minimize casualties and we took in hoards of surrendering units peacefully, as difficult as it was to logistically manage so many mass surrenders.

The 2nd invasion was just horsecrap given the WMD arguments that were obviously on very unstable grounds to begin with, though it did put to the whole thing to bed finally. It really played out as a second almost random response to 9/11 and was publicly supported by basically demonizing the whole Islamic world to Americans that just fear the whole religion and its rise as if its a megalithic threat as a whole.

Strategic ambiguity did that without making China consider the option of invading Taiwan. The departure from strategic ambiguity is the only reason why China is considering a military solution as they cannot accept Taiwan becoming an unsinkable airforce carrier for the US armed forces which are already surrounding China to a -in their view- worrying degree. China showed no sign to consider military solutions to the Taiwan question until the US started to assert its military presence there post 2016, until the US made it clear that their ambition for Taiwan were to abandon their one china policy and support their sovereignty openly with the goal of making it yet another military ally of the US close to China. On the contrary the relation between China and Taiwan was at an historic high in 2015. US escalation is the reason why China is considering a military option, not the other way around. That's my view on the matter, it's of course ok to disagree, I just want to voice my perspective as its a perspective that imo is too hastily ignored/dismissed in the western echo-chambers, and I think it's important that it is part of the discussion.
It's of course going to be a universal truth that when one sees a potential threat and begins to respond with a deterrence presence buildup, particularly when such a threat has never been publicly stated, the offense to the trust that has existed can create distrust and a hostile environment where perhaps one never was warranted. However, the question is, is it better to be ready for the possibility of a danger from a player with an excellent poker face, or to act in good faith only to be shown that good faith was being instead foolish later when the lack of preparation for a potential threat is revealed by the threat manifesting anyhow? Again, I believe had China not unjustly invaded Taiwan, we'd have operated on more of a grounds of trust, particularly being that we had done for them against Japan much the same as we did for France against Germany in WWII. There should never have been mistrust to begin with but after Vietnam, NK, Taiwan and such, it has been a very wavering will to try to work with a rival nation that seems to clearly understand or see us as a rival as well, rather than just a stout trade ally. We have a complex relationship or we would hardly have any feeling for the need for militaries between us. There's an ongoing sense they simply wait for any sign of weakness to exploit and if they really felt they had the upper hand, they'd act on it. I can understand the perspective of not wanting our military position in Taiwan to exist. The thing is, true peace never really exists in an un-unified unglobalized world.
 
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Meanwhile, China is being more aggressive than ever. First COVID comes out in Wuhan from the only one BSL-4 lab in China that was working on gain of function research on coronaviruses during a bizarre global military games exercise, then Russia invades Ukraine despite US intelligence being fully aware of what was going to happen, now China is tasting the waters. France agrees to a Yuan based oil exchange with China and Macron makes odd remarks about europe needing to be independent.

Is something else going on behind the scenes in the US? This feels like the behaviour of people who are really not afraid of the world police any more.

Note that of all this the only thing I'm not worried about is the end of petrodollars; your inflation is killing us over here. It's no longer tolerable that a poor american has a better purchasing power than a middle class european. Cars are over 100% inflation compared to 2019 now. We are moving very quickly back into a pyramidal distribution of wealth we haven't seen at least since the 1700s.
 
Meanwhile, China is being more aggressive than ever. First COVID comes out in Wuhan from the only one BSL-4 lab in China that was working on gain of function research on coronaviruses during a bizarre global military games exercise, then Russia invades Ukraine despite US intelligence being fully aware of what was going to happen, now China is tasting the waters. France agrees to a Yuan based oil exchange with China and Macron makes odd remarks about europe needing to be independent.

Is something else going on behind the scenes in the US? This feels like the behaviour of people who are really not afraid of the world police any more.

Note that of all this the only thing I'm not worried about is the end of petrodollars; your inflation is killing us over here. It's no longer tolerable that a poor american has a better purchasing power than a middle class european. Cars are over 100% inflation compared to 2019 now. We are moving very quickly back into a pyramidal distribution of wealth we haven't seen at least since the 1700s.
We're trying to put the breaks on inflation so hard we may end up in a collapse - but the truth is, when you look at profits being reported by the companies providing the most 'inflated' products, the 'inflation' (honestly a very small % of the picture if we're talking honest real inflation) is much more a matter of excuses being made by corporations pointing to minor shortage issues to artificially elevate prices far more than necessary. AKA, greed that comes from boardmembers being shared between industries to the point that cooperation can defeat monopoly laws to still gain the functional benefits of a monopoly by proxy. The inflation resulting from printing exists but the way it was applied during covid simply gave the bottom more benefits than the top this time and the oligarchs are angry so are gouging the market because we currently have a government that cares more for those at the bottom than padding the pockets of those at the top widening the income and wealth gap. We're being bit by the hand that feeds because we attempted to do things like regulate profits by percentage for example.

Watch this shift in petrodollar usage because it may well mean last minute changes in the balance of global power structure to create a hope for the nationalist agenda - they may have enough between those joining their end here and if France goes over... well... is what it is. Our last leader was indeed effective at rattling up how solid our alliances are by showing the world our global policies can change with a single election that happens every 4 years. How CAN you trust a nation that lets their promises get kept or shift on a dime like that? And it's not like we don't have lots of chickens out there to come home to roost as it were, karmically, as so many like to point out.

I just hope that the world can see its way to a future that if its not depending on the US to keep the peace, that the peace doesn't absolutely collapse and hellfire is unleashed as a result.

On that note, I've been wondering if one were to look at the Ragnarok prophecies with an eye to assigning the roles of the 'gods' in that story to the most major nations in the globe today, will it end up playing out much like Ragnarok predicted? It's always intrigued me that in the end, Surtr in frustration engulfs most of the world in fire... sounds like such a potentially accurate way for this world to go down.
 
That's the problem with just calling it inflation and moving on. Inflation means different things to different people, each country has had its own major past experience with inflation and understands the current situation only through the knowledge basis they're accustomed with. In my country we had a prices vs salaries race in the 80s, so today our bankers are still babbling about how we need to keep the salaries down (despite them being lower than they were 30 years ago). In Germany they still associate inflation exclusively with public spending and public policy. Current inflation is neither of those two things though and it would require a different approach, but good luck overcoming these mindsets.
That being said, the US did print more money in one year than in its entire history (and 99% of it went to corporations for some reason), whereas here we barely coined a few hundred billions and haven't even spent most of them yet.

The ECB, which is a "supernational entity" (sort of, they are located in Germany though...), has finally come out and called that there is speculation ongoing amidst the inflation. Unfortunately for us, 40 years of neoliberal economic policies have made it completely impossible to deal with speculation. All they can do is ask pretty please and put a stranglehold on interest rates, which further hurts the people and not at all the speculators.

If, as many commenters were eagerly claiming up until not too long ago (before stuff got real that is) "we're at war", then bring back wartime economy. Bring back 95% marginal income taxes on rich people, bring back commandeering of private assets, bring back solidarity schemes, fuel cards, essential goods rationing and luxury taxes. We're at war, dammit! There oughts to be some bread thrown to the people, some carrot. I don't want to hear any of that "the world is different" or "asymmetrical warfare" nonsense: the only thing missing is a spine in the back of political power, which has abdicated all of its prerogatives for the sake of, what exactly? Ah yes, letting billionaires enjoy a better lifestyle. Aren't we happy! Let's also sprinkle some of that climate change guilt on the poor people who have the lowest carbon footprint as a bonus.

They better change course soon or the 30s are gonna look a lot more like the last 30s than what the 20s are doing right now. This tension will need an outlet, one way or another. They're wrecking the best way of life we have ever had here as a species, all for nothing. I'm mad. It's like throwing a good game for the lulz.
 
The ECB, which is a "supernational entity" (sort of, they are located in Germany though...)
And what nationalities did the ECB presidents have so far? Where did the 2 % goal come from (I don't think that this is from the treaties)? Are the Maastricht criteria still worth anything?

The Euro is the second attempt at a European currency after the Latin Monetary Union, which failed due to inflation caused by the member countries debasing their currencies.
 
And what nationalities did the ECB presidents have so far? Where did the 2 % goal come from (I don't think that this is from the treaties)? Are the Maastricht criteria still worth anything?
I'd say that their nationalities are quite irrelevant, considering that we're talking about cosmopolitan elites whose only allegiance is to the market god. The 2% came from treaties that were biased heavily by the german fears of hyperinflation, so much so that it's the only central bank in the world whose only concern is the inflation rate and not also the employment rate or the real economy. Similar story with the 3% deficit rule that was actually developed as an arythmethical mistake by some consultation firm. In fact they're happy to see a high "sacrifice rate" so long inflation goes down, in other words at a time of exogen inflation they'd rather kill our own economies to bring inflation down than accomodate the situation.
The Euro is the second attempt at a European currency after the Latin Monetary Union, which failed due to inflation caused by the member countries debasing their currencies.
I would compare that more to the fixed exchange rates that preceded the Euro, if anything.

Either way, this monetary union was biased from the start to bend to the needs and will of Germany, who everyone considers to be the de facto guarentor and backer of the euro. Quite funny since Germany is rich thanks to the single market and the manufacturing integration with the rest of europe, not the other way around. Since 2001, Germany kep getting richer, and its main manufacturing competitors in europe at the time kept getting poorer. If only the word for sin and debt wasn't the same word in the german language and one could have a central bank actually concerned with the real economy. If only.
 
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The 2% came from treaties that were biased heavily by the german fears of hyperinflation
No, the treaties said that the currency should be kept stable, the 2% was an invention of Draghi.

Either way, this monetary union was biased from the start to bend to the needs and will of Germany
Isn't that funny? Germany joining the monetary union was pretty much a demand of France in return for France agreeing to the reunion. So no, Germany was the only country that was forced by the others to join, not the other way around.

Quite funny since Germany is rich thanks to the single market and the manufacturing integration with the rest of europe, not the other way around.
The single market started in 1993, in 1990 (West) Germany was in 4th place with respect to economy after the USA, Japan and the Soviet Union (none of them being members of the EU, or the EC back then).

If only the word for sin and debt wasn't the same word in the german language and one could have a central bank actually concerned with the real economy. If only.
In the end it doesn't work that way. Pushing inflation gets you a stronger economy only as long as that means that the wages don't rise accordingly. And even then it is a dangerous move (there is a "funny" German poem that has become quite well known internationally about the "Zauberlehrling", or "Sorcerer's Apprentice", that fits very well to this).
 
No currency has ever been stable over a long enough period of time. In the 60s, the italian lira was plauded as the most stable currency while the german mark was quite unstable. If you wanna go back to the 1600s or the 300BC we could make even more funny comparisons between Germany and Italy.

Point is, Germany is the heavyest economy in the euro, and has the final say in anything that ever happens. Of course, since its added value chains are deeply intertwined with France and Italy, it has to concede something every now and then. Yet, ever after the system moved to an actually unified currency, and devalueing was no longer possible, the German economy has been growing at a much steadier rate than mediterranean ones and even the french one - which shares the heart of the blue banana with Germany.

No one in his right mind wants to push inflation for the sake of having inflation, of course a stable currency is a great thing to have. Sadly when you're under inflation driven by external factors, killing your own economy to make up for that is not only not going to fix the inflation, but will also permanently damage the economic structure for decades to come.

The rope has been pulled quite a lot over the past 20 years, France and Germany are soon to see these foolish decisions on their own skin after Italy has been picked to the bone. France has already started.

By the way, Japan and the US remain halos of economic mistery for all ordoliberals out there. Countries that just... print money and buy their own debt... and do fine? It's almost as if central banks were invented to be useful and only some countries still remember that. The ECB is the only useless central bank in the world, concerned with making balance sheets look good even if it means destroying entire countries - poor Greece.
And yes, they were corrupt, they spent too much, they did this and that, blah blah blah - cry me a river, 90% of the world is corrupt. So is Germany. Siemens, WolksVagen, et cetera ring a bell? Economy doesn't care about corruption, in fact it is factored in the GDP, for crying out loud. Germans still work about 600 yearly hours less than italians while earning over twice as much salary - do you really believe there is some moral value to that difference? If Italy wasn't usured by absurd interest rates on 40 years old debt, that the central bank could refinace over a 100 years at 0,01% without a single care in the world, it'd have been running a massive budget surplus for over 20 years now.
 
In the 60s, the italian lira was plauded as the most stable currency while the german mark was quite unstable.
Is that supposed to be a joke? During the 60s Italy several times reached the 10% mark, whereas Germany remained under 5% in that time.

and has the final say in anything that ever happens
Considering that the more populous countries are much weaker represented (per capita) in every single EU institution that really doesn't ring true. I'm aware that Italy (as one of the more populous countries) is not exactly well represented, either, but Germany has 96 MEPs while having a population of around 84.27 M, or 878,000 citizens per MEP, whereas Italy has 76 MEPs while having 58.85 M citizens, or 774,000 citizens per MEP. For comparison, Malta has 6 MEPs while having 520,000 citizens, or 86,700 citizens per MEP. In other words, they have roughly ten times the representation Germany has, and in both the council and the commission all countries are the same. If all countries had their seats apportioned like Italy, Germany would have 109 MEPs and Malta would have 1 (and still be better represented than Italy). If every country had their seats apportioned like Malta the entire Parliament would have over 5,100 members, because the population of the entire EU is roughly 447 M.

If Italy wasn't usured by absurd interest rates on 40 years old debt, that the central bank could refinace over a 100 years at 0,01% without a single care in the world, it'd have been running a massive budget surplus for over 20 years now.
Would Italy ever have gotten to that point without the ability to make debts when they needed it? Do you think anyone would have given Italy money if they had believed they might have to give up their claims at some point?
 
Can we add like -10% war unhappiness for Martial. It would make it as perfect civic for war.

I can not imagine Spartans that wa trained as warriors since they where born to complain there is a war going on ..
 
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