Hurricanes, Typhoons & Cyclones, oh my!

[Zkribbler]

We need a home for the various discussions on the ever-growing number of storms.

Of particular interest to me is Florence, which expanded rapidly from a tropical storm to a Category-3 [and maybe even 4], then turned away from Bermuda, dropped back down to a tropical storm, took aim at the Carolinas, and is now expected rise to a Cat-4 before making landfall late this week.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/09/0...-hurricane-threatens-to-hit-southeast-us.html

Feel free to jump in with info on other storms.

Nearest to me is Mangkhut, 3,075 kilometers east of Southern Luzon, moving west northwest at a relatively fast 35 kilometers per hour (km/h). Maybe it will affect Luzon near the end of the week, but is too far north to affect me.

 

[Cutlass]

Best prediction at the moment being that the hurricane will make landfall somewhere in North or South Carolina and and likely just stay there until it floods out the place.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Best prediction at the moment being that the hurricane will make landfall somewhere in North or South Carolina and and likely just stay there until it floods out the place.

These "hit land and park" hurricanes are a new and unpleasant development.

 

[Valka D'Ur]

Given the weather thread I started, you can hardly blame me for wondering why this one was started.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Given the weather thread I started, you can hardly blame me for wondering why this one was started.

I took your weather thread to be about people sharing their local weather, and the discussions that ensue...which was a great idea and has been (still is) a good thread. This seems to be about the big, world impacting weather events that are becoming all too common. We've had threads before about this storm or that storm or the other storm, but maybe pooling them is appropriate. We'll see.

 

[Zkribbler]

Ah! Valka, your thread deals with the weather "outside," which I interpret as "outside your window." I started discussing Florence there but it was an ill fit because, for me, Florence is on the other side of the planet. Here we can discuss major storms in the Atlantic, Hawaii, Japan, etc.

Also, in your thread we can rave about days which are beautiful. Here, no. This is about disasters.

Hurricane Olivia is weakening as it approaches Hawaii. Although it will be only a tropical storm when it hits, this will be disastrous because the islands are still saturated from Hurricane Lane, the wettest tropical system on record in Hawaii.

 

[Valka D'Ur]

Ah! Valka, your thread deals with the weather "outside," which I interpret as "outside your window."

So you interpret my thread as local but yours as international? Everyone who posts in my thread is talking about their local weather, which given the international nature of CFC's membership, means weather all over the planet (presumably outside the window, since most people don't experience storms inside).

But whatever. Keep in mind that the next time we have a wind storm, hail storm, or blizzard, I'll be mentioning it in my own thread, not this one.

 

[Lemon Merchant]

Moderator Action: Now that the thread has been thoroughly derailed, can we please get it back on track? There is nothing wrong with having two weather threads. They are obviously aimed to have different content.
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889

 

[Zkribbler]

Hurricane Issac has two predictions: staying small, heading westward through the Lesser Antilles, maybe getting as far north as San Juan, OR becoming a major Hurricane.

Hurricane Helene will curve right a wander harmlessly into the Atlantic.

 

[Lexicus]

I am wondering whether we in DC will see any effects from Florence. If it makes landfall in North Carolina we could easily get a few days of rain, which we emphatically don't need - we've just spent the weekend being dumped on by the remnants of Gordon, and as of the end of August we had already hit our yearly average rainfall total.

Many of the tracks in the ensemble model runs on Wunderground show Florence meandering after it makes landfall.

There are also two more hurricanes behind Florence, Isaac and Helene, both of which were merely tropical depressions the last time I looked. Isaac is forecast to maraud around the Southern Caribbean before possibly turning northeast and ending up in the North Atlantic. Helene is forecast to turn northeast roughly midway between Africa and South America. Some of the ensemble runs have it eventually affecting the UK, presumably as an extratropical cyclone at that point.

 

[Zkribbler]

From Yahoo News:

Hurricane Florence strengthened "rapidly" on Monday and is now a powerful Category 4 hurricane, US forecasters said, as governors of three eastern US states declared an emergency and told residents to prepare for the storm....

The US Navy ordered ships at its major base in Hampton Roads, Virginia, to put to sea, saying "the forecasted destructive winds and tidal surge are too great to keep the ships in port."

Heavy rain in the Washington area over the weekend has already led to flooding in historic Alexandria, Virginia, local media reported, and the National Weather Service issued a flood watch for part of the Potomac River.

From Fox News:

Virginia and North and South Carolina are under states of emergency after Hurricane Florence strengthened Sunday, and weather forecasters predicted it could become a major storm that batters the southeast U.S. later in the week

 

[Lexicus]

Given the weather thread I started, you can hardly blame me for wondering why this one was started.

Just curious - do the words "mesoscale" or "synoptic" mean anything to you?

The US Navy ordered ships at its major base in Hampton Roads, Virginia, to put to sea, saying "the forecasted destructive winds and tidal surge are too great to keep the ships in port."

Yikes -that's on a rough line from where the storm is now to where I am :O

To be honest, I'm secretly hoping I'll get a day or two off work out of this so I'm kinda hoping the thing swings up toward us. But it won't be worth it if we get a couple of feet of rain and my basement room gets flooded.

 

[Silurian]

Looks like the El nino will be returning this winter, which will mean a warmer eastern Pacific so more storms.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45471409

 

[Zkribbler]

Nearest to me is Mangkhut, 3,075 kilometers east of Southern Luzon, moving west northwest at a relatively fast 35 kilometers per hour (km/h). Maybe it will affect Luzon near the end of the week, but is too far north to affect me.

It's now causing unnecessary panic around here. "A super typhoon is coming! A super typhoon is coming!" It won't hit us. It's effects will clip the NE corner of Luzon then continue NW and clobber Hong Hong.

Hurricane Florence may reach Cat-5, super typhoon status before it hits the Carolinas.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Hurricane Florence may reach Cat-5, super typhoon status before it hits the Carolinas.

FAKE NEWS !
Iam kinda dissapointed that Texas isnt getting it again.

 

[Zkribbler]

FAKE NEWS !
Iam kinda dissapointed that Texas isnt getting it again.

It might. There's a low pressure zone off Nicaragua. It's moving NW. It may turn into a named storm. It may hit Texas.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

FAKE NEWS !
Iam kinda dissapointed that Texas isnt getting it again.

This is merely the beginning of what looks to be a very long hard season.

That said, I'm with you.

 

[Zkribbler]

1,000,000 under mandatory evacuation orders in advance of Hurricane Florence.

I am wondering whether we in DC will see any effects from Florence.

The Washington Post is carrying a story today saying basically they don't know yet what will happen.

 

[Cutlass]

Weather guy is saying the eastern part of North Carolina is predicted to get 7-10 inches of rain. And he thinks it'll be more. So That's some serious flooding to happen.

 

[Lexicus]

I looked at a run of the GFS yesterday that had the hurricane run into the coast about in the center of the Carolinas, then literally sit and go back and forth in a little circle for like seven more days. That was only one run but if it does a "park and sit" path I would be shocked if it were only 7-10 inches of rain.

It looks like the models have adjusted the path a little north of where it was yesterday so DC could see some effects just from the very edge of the storm.