India VS China - Who'd Win?

[Patroklos]

It's not so simple that India could interdict Chinesse oil supplies. Would they stop every ship? Do you think tankers carrying oil to China would fly a Chinesse flag and say they were doing that? Do you'll not think that India choking Chinesse oil supply would not irritate other nations?

1.) I have spend years of my life boarding tankers with the very purpose of finding out exactly what they are carrying and where it is going. It is not that hard and has been done in every large scale modern war in history.

2.) Most tankers are not flying the flag of the coutries they operate in or where the firms that own them are based. They fly the flag of the country with the least rigorous regulations and taxes, which as of right now means primarily Panama or Liberia.

3.) I don't think it would piss them off any more than India actively engaging in a hot war with China would, and of course they would be just as pissed off at China for the same reason.

 

[yesboii]

Both lose. And



will rise again.

 

[say1988]

1.) I have spend years of my life boarding tankers with the very purpose of finding out exactly what they are carrying and where it is going. It is not that hard and has been done in every large scale modern war in history.

And you don't think it is possible to lie or send the ship to, say, Argentina, and then either transship or just head out across the Pacific?
As far as I know the only wars with effective interdiction was done at the destination, not the source. And/or as in the case of the two world wars, largely indiscriminately. If we are talking a limited regional conflict, interdicting the supplies would be quite difficult.

3.) I don't think it would piss them off any more than India actively engaging in a hot war with China would, and of course they would be just as pissed off at China for the same reason.

Without a scenario, we really don't know how this would be. But I would also be worried about the suppliers getting pissed off about the interference, as they can always bite back if a country gets too aggressive.

 

[Patroklos]

And you don't think it is possible to lie or send the ship to, say, Argentina, and then either transship or just head out across the Pacific?
As far as I know the only wars with effective interdiction was done at the destination, not the source. And/or as in the case of the two world wars, largely indiscriminately. If we are talking a limited regional conflict, interdicting the supplies would be quite difficult.

Something tells me the US were not keeping Australia or India or Columbia from getting oil, yet they did succeed in keeping it away from Japan to a large extent in WWII.

It is possible, and the fact that in some cases it is not easy does not prevent it from being done.

Even if there was no interference from India besides the SOM and tankers could go around Africa and South America to China that is increasing the lenght of the supply line by several times. There is a finite number of tankers, so even unmolested that means significantly less oil for China.

Without a scenario, we really don't know how this would be. But I would also be worried about the suppliers getting pissed off about the interference, as they can always bite back if a country gets too aggressive.

I have been avoiding this because the OP stipulated no allies. In reality places like Canada would probably refuse to trade to either side. And of course with the two economies that produce most of our throw away junk being actively screwed with and the resulting worldwide economic crisis, there is no way that pressure isn't applied to end the conflict or a side is chosen to accomplish the same.

 

[say1988]

Something tells me the US were not keeping Australia or India or Columbia from getting oil, yet they did succeed in keeping it away from Japan to a large extent in WWII.

You mean the Allies they were working with?
And a country rather out of the way, who if they tried to ship it to Germany would have immediately had it intercepted en route? They blocked the destination primarily, not the source.

In addition to the fact that the Allies controlled virtually all oil supplies nort in the hand of the Axis. Even Venezuela and other countries had their oild industries run by British corporations.
I suspect Switzerland had a hard time importing oil during WWII. They only country to consider would really be Franco's Spain.

Even if there was no interference from India besides the SOM and tankers could go around Africa and South America to China that is increasing the lenght of the supply line by several times. There is a finite number of tankers, so even unmolested that means significantly less oil for China.

It would increase the cost considerably and likely decrease supplies, but it would easily be enough to keep the country running, though civilian use would be likely need to be curtailed.

In reality places like Canada would probably refuse to trade to either side. And of course with the two economies that produce most of our throw away junk being actively screwed with and the resulting worldwide economic crisis, there is no way that pressure isn't applied to end the conflict or a side is chosen to accomplish the same.

I doubt we would prevent Chinese owned oil from being exported, and we certainly wouldn't cut off trade with China. Assuming that they both are relatively equally at fault. Any decrease in resources and production would have serious repercussions as you said, cutting off would likely be catastrophic. And we are far more closely linked to China than India (aside from tech support).

 

[Patroklos]

All your computers would be down withing a week. Canada and India are linked at the hip

 

[Flying Pig]

And you don't think it is possible to lie or send the ship to, say, Argentina, and then either transship or just head out across the Pacific?

Just out of interest, Pat - how do you find out where it's going if the captain says New Zealand when it's actually Australia?

 

[IAM]

It's one thing to interdict ships when you are a superpower or there is a global war with an obvious divide. If the conflict is truely limited to China/India then I don't think either side could stop resources from reaching the other nation.

 

[civ_king]

It's one thing to interdict ships when you are a superpower or there is a global war with an obvious divide. If the conflict is truely limited to China/India then I don't think either side could stop resources from reaching the other nation.

Things in China would get ugly if they only got 75% of normal oil

 

[nc-1701]

India's navy would be absolutely incapable of cutting of Middle Eastern supplies or blockading the Persian Gulf for any length of time, especially given that this would probably force India into a war with Iran and possibly other Arab nations who sell their oil to China. While the Iranian navy and air force is pretty pathetic when supported by Chinese aircraft which could use Iranian bases I expect it would quickly destroy the Indian navy. Also note that all of India's submarines are Diesel subs which would have limited range and would be incapable of long term blockading duty, at least in the numbers India is capable of fielding.

 

[RedRalph]

1.) I have spend years of my life boarding tankers with the very purpose of finding out exactly what they are carrying and where it is going. It is not that hard and has been done in every large scale modern war in history.

Yeah but come on Patroklos - plenty of smuggling still takes place. Loads of it.

 

[IAM]

Yeah but come on Patroklos - plenty of smuggling still takes place. Loads of it.

America could do it. Just look at our war on drugs. Stopped drug trade cold.

 

[RedRalph]

I remember once on althistory forums some guy telling me that the IRA could never have smuggled arms past the greatest navy in the world, the RN... it's incredible how short-sighted some people are

 

[Patroklos]

Just out of interest, Pat - how do you find out where it's going if the captain says New Zealand when it's actually Australia?

Merchant vessels have very specific paper work concerning their cargos and destinations. It is not really hard to figure out if a captain is lieing or his paper work doesn't match up (captains many times don't know they are carrying contraband). You may fool us a couple times, but not enough to matter.

Also, once a carrying company violates a blockade or sanction then they leave themselves open to having ALL their vessels impounded whenever encountered.

In all reality besides regular random screeing and security inspections we already know everything about these vessels for the most part before we board via other means, my actions are primarily verification.

 

[Patroklos]

Yeah but come on Patroklos - plenty of smuggling still takes place. Loads of it.

There is a difference between smuggling in some relatively easily concealable infantry weapons and smuggling in hundreds of millions of barrels of oil.

 

[RedRalph]

There is a difference between smuggling in some relatively easily concealable infantry weapons and smuggling in hundreds of millions of barrels of oil.

Yeah, there is, but you seem to be assuming that every single ship would be thoroughly searched. Is that feasible?

 

[Patroklos]

Yeah, there is, but you seem to be assuming that every single ship would be thoroughly searched. Is that feasible?

For India, no. However, they have more than enough capability of making such a blockade effective if not fullproof.

The only problem India would have is Japan. There are reasonable measures that could get oil to relatively powerful nations like Indonesia and Australia without using the SOM.

Japan, however, gets its oil via the same routes China does, so India couldn't simple close tanker traffic through the SOM entirely. However, India could simply request the Japanese vet their tankers. China could of course try to jack these, but that would have consequences.

 

[civ_king]

India's navy would be absolutely incapable of cutting of Middle Eastern supplies or blockading the Persian Gulf for any length of time, especially given that this would probably force India into a war with Iran and possibly other Arab nations who sell their oil to China. While the Iranian navy and air force is pretty pathetic when supported by Chinese aircraft which could use Iranian bases I expect it would quickly destroy the Indian navy. Also note that all of India's submarines are Diesel subs which would have limited range and would be incapable of long term blockading duty, at least in the numbers India is capable of fielding.

Look, if Iran gets into it with India assume Israel will exploit the chance, the Iranian know this

 

[nc-1701]

Look, if Iran gets into it with India assume Israel will exploit the chance, the Iranian know this

Well my assumption here is simple China routes tanker traffic from Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc. through the Atlantic ocean to avoid Indian blockades. This is reasonable, less efficient but would allow China to continue with full access to oil, this leaves India's only option as being to directly blockade the Persian Gulf to prevent tankers from heading toward the Suez, and/or Cape of Good Hope. This not only threatens oil supplies to America and Europe making India unpopular but directly cuts off the ability of Iran and other Arab nations to survive economically, especially Iran because so much of its oil is sold to China.
At this point Iran would likely agree to base Chinese warplanes which by this point should have finished off most of India's smaller air force at Iranian airbases where they will deploy in concert with Iranian warships and potentially Chinese submarines against Indian naval units in the Persian Gulf area. This is a battle the Indian navy would surely lose and even if Israel chose to get involved it would not matter. Israel would be lucky to pull off a successful bombing campaign against Iran under normal circumstances, but with any major number of Chinese air force units based their it would become a suicide mission. Given such a home field advantage the Chinese and Iranians would massacre any Israeli attack, and due to geography Israel powerful army would not come to bear, so Israel would gain nothing and stand to lose a great deal by opening up a major war at this point.

The end result is that the Indian navy and air force will not survive the war, and the Chinese will be able to create alternate shipping routes barring a serious escalation of the war beyond Iran, Pakistan, and Israel or other South Asian states which are primarily sympathetic to China.

 

[civ_king]

Well my assumption here is simple China routes tanker traffic from Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc. through the Atlantic ocean to avoid Indian blockades. This is reasonable, less efficient but would allow China to continue with full access to oil, this leaves India's only option as being to directly blockade the Persian Gulf to prevent tankers from heading toward the Suez, and/or Cape of Good Hope. This not only threatens oil supplies to America and Europe making India unpopular but directly cuts off the ability of Iran and other Arab nations to survive economically, especially Iran because so much of its oil is sold to China.
At this point Iran would likely agree to base Chinese warplanes which by this point should have finished off most of India's smaller air force at Iranian airbases where they will deploy in concert with Iranian warships and potentially Chinese submarines against Indian naval units in the Persian Gulf area. This is a battle the Indian navy would surely lose and even if Israel chose to get involved it would not matter. Israel would be lucky to pull off a successful bombing campaign against Iran under normal circumstances, but with any major number of Chinese air force units based their it would become a suicide mission. Given such a home field advantage the Chinese and Iranians would massacre any Israeli attack, and due to geography Israel powerful army would not come to bear, so Israel would gain nothing and stand to lose a great deal by opening up a major war at this point.

The end result is that the Indian navy and air force will not survive the war, and the Chinese will be able to create alternate shipping routes barring a serious escalation of the war beyond Iran, Pakistan, and Israel or other South Asian states which are primarily sympathetic to China.

I concede to your superior logic