Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[FriendlyFire]

Seems Non UK citizens dont get the same benefits
I cant seem to find information on non-eu immigrants getting benefits

Can EU migrants easily claim benefits when they arrive in another EU country?

No - there are conditions, depending on an individual's circumstances.

They can stay for three months, but to stay longer after that they have to be: in work; or actively seeking work with a genuine chance of being hired; or be able to show they have enough money not to be a burden on public services. Apart from that, evidence of benefit abuse or fraud is grounds to exclude or expel a person.

Jobless migrants are not entitled to the same range of benefits - mainly those which are funded from salary contributions. Workers pay social security contributions, to cover sickness, unemployment, maternity or paternity, invalidity or occupational injuries.

Under EU law, EU citizens visiting for short periods can receive basic and emergency care with a European Health Insurance Card (EHIC).

It is the host country's responsibility to get the treatment costs reimbursed by the health service in the patient's home state. The UK government says the National Health Service needs to do more to get such costs reimbursed.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-25134521

 

[Atticus]

Sadly, negotiations can not begin until two years after exit papers are filled. Which hasn't happened yet.

That's not correct. After the announcement of brexiting the union is made they have two years time to negotiate the deal. After that UK simply isn't part of EU anymore, no matter what kind of deal they have in place, if any.

 

[Silurian]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37021008

UK industrial output growing at fastest pace in 17 years.

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-36985953

From your link

High point?

Most of the growth in the quarter came in April when output rose by more than 2% on the previous month. By June the month on month increase had slowed to just 0.1%

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "The 2.1% quarter-on-quarter rise in production in the second quarter... mainly reflected the 2.3% month-to-month jump in production in April."

Some recent surveys have suggested the economy slowed sharply in the wake of the Brexit vote.

Stock prices are at 14 month highs.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.wsj....xit-vote-1470729717?client=ms-android-verizon

Most of the FTSE 100 companies have large overseas earninings so the fall in the pound will increase the value of profit returned to the UK

Strong retail sales growth.

More like mixed figures. Sales volumes were being driven by declining prices. Prices will be driven up by the recent increase in the minimum wage and the increased costs of imports caused by the fall in the pound. The continued uncertainty will reduce demand, we do not know what the UK governments position will be in the negotitions yet.

From ONS

1. Main points

The volume of retail sales in June 2016 is estimated to have increased by 4.3% compared with June 2015.

The underlying pattern in the quantity bought, as suggested by the 3 month on 3 month movement, increased by 1.6%.

Compared with May 2016, the quantity bought in the retail industry is estimated to have decreased by 0.9%.

Average store prices (including petrol stations) fell by 2.5% in June 2016 compared with June 2015.

The amount spent in the retail industry decreased by 0.9% compared with May 2016, and increased by 1.5% compared with June 2015.

The value of online sales increased by 14.1% in June 2016 compared with June 2015, and increased by 0.5% compared with May 2016.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindus...ry/bulletins/retailsales/june2016#main-points

The fact is there was a dip in some sectors but it appears things are beginning to bounce back. Now it is clear that the UK will be able to maintain free trade with the EU and in the medium to long term most of the world's large economies have lined up and said they very much want to fast track free trade with the UK. The US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, China, India, Japan, and South Korea have all said they want to sigb free trade deals with the UK ASAP. Even in the short term the ~4% drop in the pound had resulted in growing exports.

 

[bathsheba666]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37021008

UK industrial output growing at fastest pace in 17 years.

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-36985953

Stock prices are at 14 month highs.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.wsj....xit-vote-1470729717?client=ms-android-verizon

Strong retail sales growth.

The fact is there was a dip in some sectors but it appears things are beginning to bounce back. Now it is clear that the UK will be able to maintain free trade with the EU and in the medium to long term most of the world's large economies have lined up and said they very much want to fast track free trade with the UK. The US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, China, India, Japan, and South Korea have all said they want to sigb free trade deals with the UK ASAP. Even in the short term the ~4% drop in the pound had resulted in growing exports.

Now it is clear that the UK will be able to maintain free trade with the EU

Say what ? Clear to whom, and why ?
Pipe dreams. As time goes by, whatever growth figures the UK will have will be less than the growth figures they could have had if they had not have to forego the series of future decisions where money is invested in other countries.

In most of the companies I worked for, there usually is a time where they focus on the idea that retaining existing business is easier and cheaper than going out and getting new customers. The idea that you chop up your existing arrangements and replace them with more expensive contracts, for no more revenue would be thought to be laughable.

 

[Oerdin]

That's not correct. After the announcement of brexiting the union is made they have two years time to negotiate the deal. After that UK simply isn't part of EU anymore, no matter what kind of deal they have in place, if any.

Which would be... wait for it... Two years. Exactly as I said. Either way the UK cannot, officially, bring new trade agreements into force or even officially negotiate then until after it has officially left the EU.

The UK should just flip the bird to the EU and start negotiating the new trade agreements now. What can the EU really do about it?

 

[Verbose]

Which would be... wait for it... Two years. Exactly as I said. Either way the UK cannot, officially, bring new trade agreements into force or even officially negotiate then until after it has officially left the EU.

The UK should just flip the bird to the EU and start negotiating the new trade agreements now. What can the EU really do about it?

Why would it have to? The problem is what the UK is offering these other countries? Especially when they can trade with the UK as an EU member yet for a while. They're hardly going to renegotiate anything with the UK that isn't more advantageous than what they really have with the EU. So the UK risks having to sell itself cheap just to spite the EU, and somehow itself.

 

[Atticus]

Which would be... wait for it... Two years. Exactly as I said. Either way the UK cannot, officially, bring new trade agreements into force or even officially negotiate then until after it has officially left the EU.

AFAIK UK can negotiate trade deals right after they've announced leaving the EU. The results of the negotiations just won't take place before the two years have passed.

 

[Cheetah]

Two years is the maximum time they have to negotiate, unless both sides agree to an extension.

As Verbose said, the problem with negotiating other trade deals is that the UK has no idea what they will be able to offer, since the deal about leaving the EU hasn't been finished yet.

 

[Arakhor]

One of our political figures commented the other day that after winning the economic argument thoroughly, the Government still lost Brexit because they failed to switch to immigration as the Brexit crowd did. After all, it's clear that the very best economic deal we're going to get with Europe is 'status quo' and we're not magically going to get better deals from the rest of the world when we become a much reduced political and economic power.

 

[Verbose]

The EU offers all kinds of advantages. Of course, if one fails to appreciate these, taking them for granted somehow, there might be a rude awakening. Eventually.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Greenland is into final solutions
Its kind strange that it gets $650 Mil in Subsidies from Denmark, Greenland seems to be pretty much stuck following EU regulations anyway with the exception of setting fishing qoutas.
Maybe UK can get the same kind of deal EU membership minus the immigration regulations.

Greenland’s Exit From EU Holds History Lessons for U.K.: Q&A

“The final solution on how Greenland should exit the EEC resulted in Greenland getting all or most of the benefits of membership because of its connection with Denmark, while also retaining the benefits of standing outside the community, such as having control over its fishing quota. It was also still possible for Greenland to get some of the subsidy programs.”

“Greenlandic exports are not only primarily but almost exclusively made up of fishing products. So the fishing quotas naturally play a very, very important part. And this argument has been used afterwards. For example, there was a big debate about the 2016 cod fishing quotas, which wound up being four times larger than recommended by biologists. So it’s actively used that Greenland can set its own fishing quotas.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...xit-from-eu-holds-history-lessons-for-u-k-q-a

 

[Takhisis]

So clearly the best solution is for Londonless England to leave the EU while the rest of the UK stays in. Eminently democratic.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Seems Non UK citizens dont get the same benefits
I cant seem to find information on non-eu immigrants getting benefits

I find the BBC's wording peculiar in that it summaries in such a way that
first reading implies that the situation is different for Non UK citizens.

Most of the restrictions on benefits apply equally to UK nationals as well.
Those non UK nationals that work legally in the UK have very much
the same entitlements from the UK government as UK nationals have.

I suggest you go to www.gov.uk and select Benefits.

Many non UK but EU, nationals earn low wages that are topped up
by the UK government on the same basis as for UK nationals.

For this I specifically refer you to:

https://www.gov.uk/income-support/eligibility

You may note that none of the five eligibility criteria
listed there distinguish between UK and non UK nationals.

 

[EnglishEdward]

In most of the companies I worked for, there usually is a time where they focus on the idea that retaining existing business is easier and cheaper than going out and getting new customers. The idea that you chop up your existing arrangements and replace them with more expensive contracts, for no more revenue would be thought to be laughable.

All very true.

However states are not the same animals as countries, and a deal between
states is almost the exact opposite of a deal between companies.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

You know that any disfavorable measure taken by UK in relation to non UK nationals will be reciprocally applied to any UK nationals living abroad, dont you?

 

[FriendlyFire]

Many non UK but EU, nationals earn low wages that are topped up
by the UK government on the same basis as for UK nationals.

For this I specifically refer you to:

https://www.gov.uk/income-support/eligibility

You may note that none of the five eligibility criteria
listed there distinguish between UK and non UK nationals.

I was looking for this, answer which is the UK can set its OWN LAWS on welfare. Including NOT paying Unemployed EU migrants.

If the issue is business using cheap labour and then the UK paying out benefits, you can do what other countries in the EU do, which is regulate there low skill jobs market

UK can refuse benefits to unemployed EU migrants, judges rule

Europe’s top judges have backed Britain’s right to refuse to pay family welfare benefits to unemployed EU migrants who have been in Britain for less than five years.

The ruling by the European court of justice confirms that EU rules on free movement do not prevent Britain and other member states blocking access to welfare benefits if immigrants are unemployed and unable to support themselves.

For the government a spokesman for HM Revenue and Customs said: “The UK welcomes the Court of Justice of the European Union’s judgment, which supports our view that we are entitled to ensure only EU migrants who have a right to be in the UK can claim our benefits.”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...enefits-to-unemployed-eu-migrants-judges-rule

 

[EnglishEdward]

I was looking for this, answer which is the UK can set its OWN LAWS on welfare. Including NOT paying Unemployed EU migrants.

That is a very wide interpretation you are making there.

According to the Guardian article you linked to, the logic was that:

The court ruling said there was nothing in the EU social security directives that prevented the UK imposing conditions that immigrants should be legally resident in the UK to get access to welfare benefits.

which would not seem to provide any scope for limiting income top up benefits
to those legally in the UK.


There is also a timing issue. The European Court of Justice did not wish to appear
to repudiate David Cameron's supposed deal the very week before the referendum.

In other words, future ruling likes to be as, if not more, constraining on UK government.

If the issue is business using cheap labour and then the UK paying out benefits, you can do what other countries in the EU do, which is regulate there low skill jobs market

Not possible to abolish cheap labour, albeit it is possible to abolish income top up,
but that has undesirable consequences in itself.

 

[EnglishEdward]

You know that any disfavorable measure taken by UK in relation to non UK nationals will be reciprocally applied to any UK nationals living abroad, dont you?

I do not see why the Spanish government should
pay benefits to any UK nationals illegally in Spain.

 

[Takhisis]

What of the few hundred thousand UK retirees in Spain who are not Spanish citizens?

 

[Manfred Belheim]

So clearly the best solution is for Londonless England to leave the EU while the rest of the UK stays in. Eminently democratic.

Well aside from the fact that "do you want London to break off and form a separate city state" was not part of the referendum question and therefore literally no-one in the country has voted on that issue.