Israeli elections!

[boogaboo]

The average of the exit polls of the 3 main tv channels are :

Kadima - 31
Labor - 22
Israel beytenu - 13
Likud - 11
Shas - 11
Leumi Mafdal - 8
Senior party - 7 (surprise! they want pensions..)
Bible Judaism - 6
Meretz - 5
3 Arab/communist parties - 7 (together)

Notice Kadima+Labor+Senior+Meretz are 65 of 120, and hold a very good coalition option.

Sharon is still in a coma and will not enter politics.
Happy new government!

Oh, and "green leaf", "the greens", together with about 10 more tiny parties didn't pass the needed 2%..

 

[Odin2006]

Damn, talk about a Likud collapse.

I'm guessing you guys will get Labor policies on the economy and Kadima policies regarding the Palistinians.

 

[Eli]

To all those cheering the Likud collapse, keep in mind that Israel Beitenu is a much more radical right wing party. In principle, we not have the following lines:
(all approximate)
Left: Labor+Meretz=26
Center: Kadima+Pensioners=38
Right: Likud+Israel Beytenu+Mafdal=32

The collapse of the Likud did not weaken the right, it merely brought a new, more radical, leader to the top.

 

[boogaboo]

after about half of the votes counted:

Kadima - 28
Labor - 20
Israel beytenu - 11
Likud - 12
Shas - 13
Leumi Mafdal - 8
Senior party - 8 (surprise! they want pensions..)
Bible Judaism - 6
Meretz - 5
3 Arab/communist parties - 9 (3,3,3)

so...

Left: Labor+Meretz=25
Center: Kadima+Pensioners=36
Right: Likud+Israel Beytenu+Mafdal=31

and it all depends on Olmert to decide, but he'll have to take Labor for his policy, which are base 48. I hope for Metetz and the pensioners, although he may choose Sha"s ..

 

[Cuivienen]

Wikipedia has the results with 90% of the votes counted:

Kadima: 29
Labour: 20
Shas: 12
Likud: 12
Yisrael Beytenu: 11
National Union/National Religious Party: 8
Pensioners Party: 8
United Torah Judaism: 6
Meretz-Yachad: 5
United Arab List: 3
Hadash: 3
Balad: 3

Likud managed to pull back to tie for third and Yisrael Beytenu fell. Balad was not expected to pass the 2% mark but apparently managed to.

Kadima + Labour + Pensioners + Meretz-Yachad = 62
OR
Kadima + Labour + Shas = 61

 

[Eli]

Results after 99% of the votes were counted:

Kadima - 28.
Labor - 20.
Shas - 13.
Israel Beytenu - 12.
Likud - 11.
National Union - 9.
Pensioners - 7.
United Tora Judaism - 6.
Meretz - 4.
Arabs - 3+4+3=10.

What we have is a very dissapointing result for Kadima, a pretty good one for Labor, and total crash for the Likud.
It's interesting that Liberman didnt get to be the third largest after all, Shas got a surprisingly large result(the polls were predicting 10-11 for them) and Liberman was supposed to get 14.

Of all the rest, Meretz got hit pretty heavily. 4 seats is not much even for them, and a total of 10 for the Arabs is also pretty suprising. They were expected to get something like 8.

 

[GinandTonic]

Sounds like perminant boarders can be put through on the basis of those numbers. Must be a good thing.

 

[BuckyRea]

My prediction: A Jewish person will get elected.

Going out on a limb with that prediction, there, Riesstiu! But yes, it's like they've taken over the whole country!!

Seriously, tho, I find these results pretty hopeful (unlike their neighbors' recent elections). Good to see war weariness still kicks in for democracies. But I guess I've always been pretty pessimistic about how Israeli democracy is constructed--like it's constitutionally geared toward giving too much power to fringe groups who can make or break coaltions. I really suspect that is the major factor contributing to Israel's share of the mess-making over there (30%, imo, vs 70% blame going to the unlamented Mr Arafat).

 

[Eli]

Sounds like perminant boarders can be put through on the basis of those numbers. Must be a good thing.

Actually no. To make big moves, Kadima needed to have roughly 40 seats. Now they are just the usual size for a weak ruling party. Like the Likud and Labor have been during Netanyahu's and Barak's rule.

A left wing coalition that will be willing to withdraw even more will consist of:
Kadima+Labor+Meretz=52.
That's the core of parties who will certainly support such moves. You also have the 10 votes of the Arabs but if a decision to withdraw from territories passes only thanks to Arab votes, there will be hell and mayhem.

Among the Jewish parties who could agree to another pullout you have:
Shas+UTJ+Pensioners=26.

The Pensioners are an unknown. No one expected them to get into the Knesset and no one knows what they support.
Shas opposes a withdrawal, at least today, but they are a very elastic party. With the correct budgets going to the correct places, they could be convinced.
As for the UTJ, I have no idea.

In short, a withdrawal coalition can be built, but it's not as easy as it seemed to be a month ago and it will be an unstable coalition.

 

[Leha]

I voted Kadima