Kurdish Independence Referendum

[Quintillus]

The Kurdish independence referendum in Iraq took place today, and results are expected to be announced soon, with a "yes" vote expected. You can read about the referendum in this article if you aren't familiar with it.

I'm sympathetic to the independence cause, but fear it could cause more instability in the region. An officially independent Kurdistan in Iraq would likely cause Kurds in Turkey and Iran to seek to join them.

 

[Berzerker]

they can have whatever land they grab from ISIL

and I support their effort yay

 

[warpus]

The Kurds effectively control northern Iraq anyway. I support the Kurds and their right to self-determination.

If this leads to any sort of unrest, it will be the doing of Turkey, Iran, and/or Iraq, not the Kurds. I also feel that any sort of unrest will spur Kurds elsewhere into action as well, they've been without a state of their own for too long.

 

[NovaKart]

Kurdish separatist movements already exist in Turkey and Iran anyway so I doubt the referendum in Iraq will change anything.

Here's the real issue with the referendum:

There are disputed areas, in particular in Kirkuk which has a very mixed Kurdish, Arab and Turkmen population, not just the city but the whole governorate. Last year there were clashes that broke out between Shia militias (Hashid al-Shaabi) and the Kurdish forces even before this although it was brief. This could cause further violence in disputed areas. There's also Khanaqin, which is also mixed and has some tension and Sinjar, where the Yazidi are caught between the two. These disputed areas are claimed by both the Iraqi central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government with the populations having mixed loyalties.

Besides that, the Kurdish government has serious disputes between the political parties causing parliament to be inactive for very long periods and the economy is terrible because of the dispute over the budget with Baghdad. There's the question of whether Kurdistan could survive economically as independent. There's also dissatisfaction with the current government and concern it won't be very democratic. It's nothing like the situation with the governments of Iran, Turkey and Syria but still, there are issues there.

Still, from what I've seen from the results so far it looks like there is a vast support for independence and last night there were fireworks all over the place and people driving around flying Kurdish flags and celebrating.

The referendum doesn't mean an immediate declaration of independence and could be used as a bargaining tool for greater concessions from the Iraqi government and to try to seek further support for independence from the international community so I think real independence is still some ways off.

While Iran and Turkey are concerned I think the prospect of their Kurdish territories joining Iraqi Kurdistan is very unlikely. And I doubt at least with Turkey that Iraqi Kurdistan would even find this desirable because their political position and philosophy is very different from the PKK.

But this could cause a lot of tension between Kurdistan and Iraq and Kurds and Arabs so it's something to look out for and hopefully this will be largely confined to peaceful negotiations between Erbil and Baghdad.

 

[Kyriakos]

I wait for r16 to get here, though i hope he will show restraint in being anti-kurdish

Next stage should be Kurdistan in that other state, ie Sevreing Turkey. Deus Vult.

 

[Broken_Erika]

Or after Kurdistan becomes independent, Turkey decides to do some empire building....

 

[Kyriakos]

^And lose the rest as well, i like your idea

 

[Commodore]

So Kurdistan is finally going to become a reality huh? Long overdue I say.

 

[Berzerker]

maybe something good will come of Bush's invasion for a change

 

[Akka]

In general, I'm strongly opposed to independentist movements, which I see as pointless and arrogant regionalism.
There is two exceptions, though : Scotland, just because I'd find it hilarious to see the UK crashing, and Kurdistan, because they actually are a people with their own culture which have been one of the worst victim of the idiotic colonial borders that France and UK left behind. Creating their state would certainly be a cause for great problems, but once established it could on the contrary be a force of stability.
And also, the four countries which stand to lose territories have had it coming. Like, really.

 

[Oerdin]

It won't help the Kurds but good for them.

 

[Commodore]

The biggest issue will be how much land they are going to try to claim once they get independence. Are they just going to stick to the provinces they have in Iraq now? Or are they going to attempt to claim all of what they believe is their land?

For reference, here's a map of what the Kurds claim to be theirs historically and what they think the borders of a theoretical Kurdistan should look like:



As you can see, Turkey and Iran are definitely going to have a problem with Kurdistan if it tries to claim all the land it believes it should have.

 

[Synobun]

The safest option would likely be to seek guarantee from the US for the current territories being held in the referendum, and then enacting an open policy where the territories in other nations can hold their own referendums and join the Kurdistan state if successful. With US guarantee it would at least reduce the likelihood of less-than-ethical interference from the parent states.

Kurdistan has been a wonderful ally to the West. We've let them down time and time again. It would be good to not do that this time.

 

[Akka]

Syria looks pretty empty of Kurdish land on this map, which is weird considering that they control a good quarter of it.

 

[Commodore]

It appears the Iraqi government is already putting up resistance to the idea of an independent Kurdistan. They are calling the referendum unconstitutional and therefore refuse to discuss the results or a possible "road to independence" for the Kurds.

The Iraqi government will not hold talks with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) about the results of Monday's "unconstitutional" referendum on independence in northern Iraq, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said.

"We are not ready to discuss or have a dialogue about the results of the referendum because it is unconstitutional," Abadi said in a speech broadcast on state TV on Monday night.

"Most of the problems of the [Kurdish] region are internal ones, not and not with Baghdad, and will be increased with the calls for separation," Abadi said, adding: "The economic and financial problems the region is suffering from are the result of corruption and mis-administration," the prime minister said.

Rest of the article here: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/...kurds-referendum-results-170926033646791.html

 

[red_elk]

they can have whatever land they grab from ISIL

The problem is they will have to grab territories from Iran, Iraq Turkey and Syria, not from ISIS.

Syria looks pretty empty of Kurdish land on this map, which is weird considering that they control a good quarter of it.

They control large part of Syria populated by Sunni Arab majority.

 

[Kyriakos]

Syria looks pretty empty of Kurdish land on this map, which is weird considering that they control a good quarter of it.

They may control it now, but iirc the only kurdish-populated (or majority) areas are those shown in this map too (?).

Re Kudistan in Turkey: one way or another it is inevitable for it to form. Even by turkish stats the kurdish people are more than 1/7 of the entire population, and at least 10 million.

 

[Snerk]

This video is quite informative on the matter

 

[danjuno]

Good for them. The Kurds should never have been drawn into any of these other countries to begin with. That colonial's stupidity for ya.

 

[Gen.Mannerheim]

I'm generally supportive of Kurdish independence, but I don't see the U.S. government supporting it (and that has nothing to do with Trump).

Turkey is a NATO ally, and even though the relationship between Ankara and the other allies has become a bit strained in recent years its hard to see NATO actively supporting a policy that runs counter to the wishes of one of its allies. Just look at how hard it is to get anyone to recognize the Armenian Genocide.

In regards to Iraq, the U.S. just spend the better part of a decade rebuilding that country and I doubt Washington will be happy to see a valuable chunk get knocked off, even in the name of self determination. Also, if the U.S. supported Kurdish independence, then that would drive Baghdad even deeper into the arms of Iran, a situation the U.S. would like to avoid.

There is two exceptions, though : Scotland, just because I'd find it hilarious to see the UK crashing

While I'm not opposed to a strong Scottish regional identity, my extreme dislike of Scottish Nationalism comes more from the incredibly dishonest way that the SNP has been pursuing it.

That colonial's stupidity for ya.

Its a truism in the Middle East that many of the borders are just lines in the sand drawn up in rooms in London, Paris, or Istanbul with little regard for the peoples or history of the region. Both Iraq and Syria jammed peoples with mutual dislike and distrust into the same box, and the 20th & 21st centuries have been paying for it ever sense.