New Player Survey

[InsidiousMage]

Do you, or does anyone else, have a link to this survey?

Civ 6 Community Survey Dec 2023

Civ 6 Community Survey Dec 2023.

survey.alchemer.com

 

[blackbutterfly]

Also, that the "franchises you have heard of before today" included ARA and HK, but not Millennia or Old World.

These are the games Firaxis believes are Civ's main competition:

AoE is RTS.
Stellaris is space.

Only HUMANKIND is in roughly the same space.
So it's safe to assume that HUMANKIND is the one that's perceived as their biggest competition.

Other questions:

1. Leader boards

So they are thinking of implementing leader boards in a future Civ.

2. Country

Looks like China has overtaken UK as Civ's second largest market. No surprise there.

And finally, the two questions that to me is irrefutable evidence that Civ VII is still at "market research" phase:

(Apologies for my terrible screen snippet skills).

 

[pokiehl]

I think you’re making a ton of assumptions there.

 

[Nikolai II]

I think you’re making a ton of assumptions there.

Yeah, he really seem to be.

 

[Alexander's Hetaroi]

I found it interesting that the survey asked about all the games (Civ1 thru Civ6), with some more details about how much one might be playing Civ2 thru Civ6. They did not ask about any spinoff games, such as Colonization, SMAC, or Beyond Earth.

Although I responded that I would be "slightly interested" in a tabletop game, I'm now reconsidering my answer. In a tabletop game, all players can see the whole game board. I can't think of a good way (in game terms) for the exploration phase, learning what's out there. That aspect is a big part of the fun in the early game, dispersing the fog of war or revealing the map. Fun for me, anyway. Would be hard to carry that part over, into a tabletop game.

In the 2010 board game version you lay most of the tiles facedown, except for each player's starting tiles. Then during the game if one of your units reaches one of the unrevealed tiles you can use one of your movement points for that turn to flip the tile over revealing it to everybody.

Do you, or does anyone else, have a link to this survey?

I accessed it through the game's main menu. .

 

[InsidiousMage]

And finally, the two questions that to me is irrefutable evidence that Civ VII is still at "market research" phase:

Any smart company is going to be doing "market research" until they've finished developing the game. The "rules never change" option can give them an idea of how much they can push the boundaries with later DLC, not just the base game, for example. If Civ7 isn't deep in development by this point, then that's some major, major malpractice going on at Firaxis/2K.

 

[Eagle Pursuit]

I think the questions are about how they plan to market the game, rather than trying to decide what features are in the game

 

[blackbutterfly]

I think the questions are about how they plan to market the game, rather than trying to decide what features are in the game

I think it's to help Ed Beach and the Civ design team figure out what they want for Civ VII.

Anton Strenger was primed to helm Civ VII. But Anton Strenger left. And Carbarian still a junior, so I don't think there's anyone to lead Civ VII design RN. Looks to me like Ed is grooming Carl to be Civ VII lead.
But he's not quite ready.

I found it interesting that the survey asked about all the games (Civ1 thru Civ6), with some more details about how much one might be playing Civ2 thru Civ6. They did not ask about any spinoff games, such as Colonization, SMAC, or Beyond Earth.

Exactly!
There are no questions about Beyond Earth 2 because it is way pass the market research phase...I expect it is "the next Civ game in development".

Sorry to burst anybody's bubble, but the New Player Survey's content is clearly indicative of very disappointing news for fans hoping for a Civ VII soon.

 

[pokiehl]

I think it's to help Ed Beach and the Civ design team figure out what they want for Civ VII.

Anton Strenger was primed to helm Civ VII. But Anton Strenger left. And Carbarian still a junior, so I don't think there's anyone to lead Civ VII design RN. Looks to me like Ed is grooming Carl to be Civ VII lead.
But he's not quite ready.

You have speculated on the interpersonal and professional relationships of these people many times and I never understood why, or where you get these ideas from. Like there was a post you made suggesting without any evidence that Anton and Carl had a fight or something and that led to Anton being pushed out. Weird ideas.

There are a lot more people on the Civ dev team than just Ed and Carl, most of whom are in between them in tenure and seniority.

 

[blackbutterfly]

Though not really related to the New Player Survey, there's a YouTube of Firaxis' presentation at IGDC23.
Although it's re: Marvel's Midnight Suns, it's a fascinating insight into Firaxis design "magic".

(It's an hour long so watch it at 2x).

Most certainly it helped inform my opinion (a minority opinion!?) re: Civ VII.

 

[Vandlys]

Though not really related to the New Player Survey, there's a YouTube of Firaxis' presentation at IGDC23.
Although it's re: Marvel's Midnight Suns, it's a fascinating insight into Firaxis design "magic".

(It's an hour long so watch it at 2x).

Most certainly it helped inform my opinion (a minority opinion!?) re: Civ VII.

Or, you know, take an hour to watch it?

 

[Nikolai II]

I think it's to help Ed Beach and the Civ design team figure out what they want for Civ VII.

Anton Strenger was primed to helm Civ VII. But Anton Strenger left. And Carbarian still a junior, so I don't think there's anyone to lead Civ VII design RN. Looks to me like Ed is grooming Carl to be Civ VII lead.
But he's not quite ready.

So let me get this straight. You think the next Civ is in the planning stsge. IE no real work has been done on it yet. So then you think Civ7 will come out un 6++ years, is that so? Cause that is how long AAA game dev is minimum these days.

 

[Solver]

There are no questions about Beyond Earth 2 because it is way pass the market research phase...I expect it is "the next Civ game in development".

Sorry to burst anybody's bubble, but the New Player Survey's content is clearly indicative of very disappointing news for fans hoping for a Civ VII soon.

I have to admit I am not, at all, following your reasoning, keeping in mind that Firaxis is a perfectly normal commercial company that seeks to make a profit.

Making a full game takes years. Civ6 recently turned seven years old. You suggest Civ7 is in the market research phase, which means pre-production. That would put the release timeline of Civ7 at some three years from now, assuming a very quick production schedule, but realistically more. Then by your suggestion, Civ7 would arrive more than a decade after Civ6. How does that make sense from a commercial perspective given that Civ is the most profitable and the most recognizable product Firaxis has?

You guess that instead it's Beyond Earth 2 that is the focus of their efforts and in full production. My question for that is, what's the commercial justification for BE2 given the history of BE itself? Some facts that would definitely inform the decision-making there are that BE currently has less than 20% of Civ4's player count, and about 30% of Civ3's player count. Civ3 is, as a reminder, 22 years old so it's quite literally older than some Civ6 players, but it easily beats BE's player numbers. The other part of the equation is user reviews. If we look at full titles and expansions, disregarding minor DLCs, CivBE is the second lowest-ranked Civ entry on Steam. It just barely beats Civ6 Rise and Fall, but otherwise it ranks below Civ 3/4/5/6, their expansions, and below a spinoff like Civ4: Col.

That, to me, suggests that BE2 would be quite difficult to market compared to Civ7, as BE does provably not have the player base even approaching Civ3, and doesn't have the great reputation or name recognition either. So what is it that makes you convinced it's a good commercial decision to focus on BE2?

 

[blackbutterfly]

My question for that is, what's the commercial justification for BE2 given the history of BE itself? Some facts that would definitely inform the decision-making there are that BE currently has less than 20% of Civ4's player count, and about 30% of Civ3's player count. Civ3 is, as a reminder, 22 years old so it's quite literally older than some Civ6 players, but it easily beats BE's player numbers.

The 6(?)yr old Beyond Earth has active player numbers (including myself!) that compares with HUMANKIND. (~2 yr old).
About half?

Regardless, the reason I posted the YouTube of the Firaxis IGDC23 presentation is it's about the development of the card combat system in Marvel's Midnight Suns.
Arguably its genius!
The much maligned and misunderstood card combat system.

FYI MMS is NOT a deck builder.
Bad luck for Firaxis b'cos almost all YouTubers started posting "deck builds" for heroes in MMS...cementing its reputation amongst gamers (incorrectly) as a card game. Tragic!

Firaxis took the time (and money) to showcase the development process of MMS's card combat system because they know that its the major innovation of MMS.
Joe said he's now working on a new unannounced project. My best guess is it's XCOM 3.
Also a good bet is Firaxis are planning to bring card combat to XCOM.

However, card gameplay is more suited to Civ(!) than XCOM TBH.
A la Hexarchy.
(There's a free demo on Steam RN. I highly recommend it!)

But Hexarchy uses card play for everything except combat.
Seems they missed the point.

Ed Beach is a huge card/board game fan.
IMO he will bring card combat to Civ next...whatever that may be.

But it would be terribly risky if Firaxis introduces card combat into Civ VII and it gets the reception of MMS.

Now enter the New Player Survey

Some of those checkboxes on q18 & q19 are about players wanting more of existing game systems.
(I should've grabbed the entire list)

Card play might suit a Civ Rev successor better. Maybe that's why there's the question about a mobile game?

Regardless Beyond Earth is a much less risky way to introduce card combat into Civ...without doing it first for Civ VII.
Beyond Earth was a test bed for wide gameplay, diplomatic currency, leader traits and agendas and multiplayer systems that all made it eventually into Civ VI in some form.

If there isn't enough interest in a new Civ mobile game (Civ Rev 3?) then I expect card combat will be in Beyond Earth 2.

 

[pokiehl]

The 6(?)yr old Beyond Earth has active player numbers (including myself!) that compares with HUMANKIND. (~2 yr old).
About half?

That just means they're both game with very low player counts. A few hundred players is absolutely nothing. It says a lot more about Humankind's lack of popularity than it does about Beyond Earth's popularity.

 

[Vandlys]

View attachment 678885

The 6(?)yr old Beyond Earth (1) has active player numbers (including myself!) that compares with HUMANKIND. (~2 yr old).
About half? (2)

Regardless, the reason I posted the YouTube of the Firaxis IGDC23 presentation is it's about the development of the card combat system in Marvel's Midnight Suns.
Arguably its genius!
The much maligned and misunderstood card combat system.

FYI MMS is NOT a deck builder.
Bad luck for Firaxis b'cos almost all YouTubers started posting "deck builds" for heroes in MMS...cementing its reputation amongst gamers (incorrectly) as a card game. Tragic!

Firaxis took the time (and money) to showcase the development process of MMS's card combat system because they know that its the major innovation of MMS.
Joe said he's now working on a new unannounced project. My best guess is it's XCOM 3.
Also a good bet is Firaxis are planning to bring card combat to XCOM.

However, card gameplay is more suited to Civ(!) than XCOM TBH. (3)
A la Hexarchy.
(There's a free demo on Steam RN. I highly recommend it!)

But Hexarchy uses card play for everything except combat.
Seems they missed the point. (4)

Ed Beach is a huge card/board game fan.
IMO he will bring card combat to Civ next...whatever that may be. (5)

But it would be terribly risky if Firaxis introduces card combat into Civ VII and it gets the reception of MMS.

Now enter the New Player Survey

Some of those checkboxes on q18 & q19 are about players wanting more of existing game systems.
(I should've grabbed the entire list)

Card play might suit a Civ Rev successor better. Maybe that's why there's the question about a mobile game? (6)

Regardless Beyond Earth is a much less risky way to introduce card combat into Civ...without doing it first for Civ VII.
Beyond Earth was a test bed for wide gameplay, diplomatic currency, leader traits and agendas and multiplayer systems that all made it eventually into Civ VI in some form.

If there isn't enough interest in a new Civ mobile game (Civ Rev 3?) then I expect card combat will be in Beyond Earth 2. (7)

1) 9 years, 8 for Rising Tide.
2) Says nothing. Beyond Earth could have 2 active players and Humankind 4. You need higher numbers than +/- 500 to imply Beyond Earth is still popular enough to warrant a sequel over a sequel to Civilization VI.
3) Why? Care to give your arguments?
4) Why? See number 3.
5) Why? See number 3.
6) I don't know. Could it be that the whole survey has nothing to do with Cards? It seems you have linked cards to the survey and are now looking through a lens to support your theory. The mobile game question could just be because more than half of the total gaming market revenue is made by mobile games. I would think Civilization is most popular on PC, which is at most 1/3 of less than half of all gaming revenue, but probably a lot less.
7) Why? There is an assumption here that there will be a Beyond Earth 2 (I would like it but am not expecting it), and that card card necessarily must be introduced in the Civilization franchise.

You make some leaps of logic, some assumptions in cause and effect, that I don't at all follow.

Still, your enthusiasm about the card combat is infectious to me and I will have to check out Marvel's Midnight Suns sometime.

 

[Solver]

Indeed - Humankind appears to have been commercially a failure on a scale different to any 4X in the last two decades. Humankind had a huge marketing campaign as part of its AAA budget, it was the only AAA 4X game not made by Firaxis.

Despite strong sales, two months after release, HK had lost 90% of players and currently has an active player base that's about 5% of the launch window average, or 2,5% of the peak. Compare to Civ5, which 11 years after release has a player base about 23% of the peak and more or less stable player numbers over the past 3 years. Or Civ6 which has comparable metrics. HK's player drop was so remarkable that there were a few articles in 2020 highlighting it. The quality of Humankind's design is another issue altogether but there's no question that it was a failure in terms of sales and reception. Endless Space 2, which Amplitude developed before getting the massive amounts of SEGA money, had better longevity, same peak numbers as HK and much better press and user reviews.

Also the graph comparing BE to HK is a bit unfair if you measure at the point where HK's player count is lowest and graphs look their closest (but BE has 57% of HK's count at that moment). The two games do not have similar player counts. The last time BE exceeded 1000 players was in April 2020. The game's MAU has been under 500 every month starting with September '20. Humankind has exceeds 1000 players multiple times every week and its worst MAU ever was 725. If you measure on average players, BE is at about 40% of HK, if you measure on peak players in a period then it's closer to 35%. So even as HK clearly lacks popularity, its player base is over twice as large as BE's by any reasonable metric.

 

[Alexander's Hetaroi]

Exactly!
There are no questions about Beyond Earth 2 because it is way pass the market research phase...I expect it is "the next Civ game in development".

Sorry to burst anybody's bubble, but the New Player Survey's content is clearly indicative of very disappointing news for fans hoping for a Civ VII soon.

By that logic there is just as big of a chance it could be Colonization 2 instead.

 

[Patine]

I do worry that they'll do like Wizards of the Coast did for Dungeons & Dragons 5th Edition, gaving a big survey in early development of the edition, and then seeming to ignore the trends of player interest that could be gaged on the official, and various fan-run sites, and conjure mysterious, "marketing data," from some magician's hat, and make quite a few counter-intuitive and, ultimately, unpopular decisions.

 

[Haig]

Remember earlier this year when Firaxis flew Potato McWhiskey from Ireland to the states to be a guest in an one hour livestream?

As it was noted back then (by EaglePursuit) they probably used the trip to show some content of an upcoming game that would have been in quite a complete state by then.
They would not have flied him in for just that small livestream.