North Korea Nuke Test Preparations?

[conehead234]

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The U.S. intelligence community is monitoring what appears to be preparations by North Korea to conduct a nuclear test, a Defense Department official told CNN Friday. But the official strongly emphasized that it is unclear whether the activity is real or deceptive.

The official said there are indications of North Korea "digging holes and then filling them up with dirt" and that such activity is suggestive of underground test preparations.

But he added, "The North Koreans are letting the U.S. see what they want us to see."

The official could not say whether there were any indications of a nuclear device or weapon being placed in any of those holes. The U.S. military and intelligence community have long tracked North Korean deception programs and is aware that North Korea may undertake some activities to deceive U.S. spy satellites.

The official said some analysis that dictates against nuclear test preparation activity is that North Korea understands any test would end negotiations with the United States -- and most likely with China.

The New York Times reported Friday that recent satellite photographs of North Korea appear to show rapid, extensive preparations for a nuclear weapons test. The report came just days after North Korea -- a communist nation led by reclusive leader Kim Jong Il -- tested a short-range missile.

In an interview with CNN Friday, Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the reports, if true, send a "very, very bad signal to our effort to roll back the North Korean program."

"I would hope that every country right now, every leader, is on the phone with Kim Jong Il, trying to convince him to restrain from going ahead with this reported nuclear testing," he said.

ElBaradei said the international community must make clear that it "will have absolutely no tolerance for a nuclear weapon in North Korea."

North Korean capability vs. activity
In Washington a U.S. official said that while satellite imagery shows increased activity at one of North Korea's nuclear sites, activity there has "come and gone with varying degrees of intensity" over the months. What remains unclear is whether increased activity at the site is related to North Korea's intentions to test a nuclear weapon.

The official added that a "working assumption" exists that North Korea can in fact test a bomb without much warning at all. If they do test, said the official, it is a "question of politics and not technology."

Meanwhile, a State Department official said that while there may be some in the intelligence community who believe North Korea may be preparing for a nuclear test, the "assessment of the broader" intelligence community is that a test is not imminent -- and that preparations for such a test may not be in the works.

The official went on to say that the U.S. intelligence community "doesn't want to convey the idea that nothing is going on" in North Korea, but rather that there is some type of activity taking place. For what, they are not sure.

David Albright, a former U.N. nuclear weapons inspector, said a scenario in which North Korea would test a nuclear bomb is extremely troubling, and countries need to brace themselves for that possibility.

He said the situation must be "managed very carefully, so we don't inadvertently end up in a war."

"I think one of the important things that the United States and people in northeast Asia should be doing right now is preparing just in case North Korea does test," he told CNN. "We don't want this to be a big surprise that leads countries to take very drastic actions -- particularly with North Korea, where you never can really predict how they're going to respond. I mean, we know [if] you push them, they push back harder."

Albright said he believes North Korea could probably put a "crude nuclear weapon" on a short-range missile that could hit Japan but not a long-range missile that could reach the United States.

He added, "There's a view that they're increasing their capabilities to make nuclear weapons, but we remain very uncertain about what they've actually accomplished."

Earlier this week a South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman said South Korea and the United States had noticed movements in tunnels in the North Korean county of Kilju. "We have continuously tried to verify the tunnel, but we are not sure of what the purpose of this tunnel is." He did not elaborate.

The statements were in reaction to a report in the Chosun Ilbo newspaper, which quoted South Korean intelligence sources as saying they recently got a briefing from U.S. counterparts about activities in the area of Kilju that could be preparations for a nuclear test.

The United States has been working recently to jump-start six-party talks, involving Japan, South Korea, Russia, China and North Korea, to get Pyongyang to end its program.

Last week, President Bush said the six-party talks are the best way to solve the dispute with Kim.

"There is concern about his capacity to deliver a nuclear weapon. We don't know if he can or not, but I think it's best, when you're dealing with a tyrant like Kim Jong Il, to assume he can," Bush said. "That's why I've decided that the best way to deal with this diplomatically is to bring more leverage to the situation by including other countries."

CNN's Barbara Starr and Andrea Koppel contributed to this report.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/05/06/nkorea.nuke/index.html

 

[CruddyLeper]

Given the complete ignorance by the US of the existence of North Korea, I'm not surprised.

Sometimes the only way to get attention from a bully is to stick both fingers up their nose.

 

[TrailblazingScot]

Hopefully the North Koreans blow themselves up, would be hilarious.

 

[Perfection]

I don't know, I think North Korea is just using this as a negotiation tactic. Make it seem like they're always on the verge of getting nuclear bombs. They may very well be trying to back up the claim, but I think North Korea has the most leverage in uncertainty.

 

[King Alexander]

Even if NK had nuclear bombs, why would they be willing to test them? Are they so stupid that they don't know what a nuclear explosion does?--Can't they just search the Web to find the data/facts they want?

There're also simulator-programs to 'test' their bomb, and if the bomb is a bit 'weak', they could just add 1/2Kg of plutonium or whatever!

 

[CruddyLeper]

Even if NK had nuclear bombs, why would they be willing to test them? Are they so stupid that they don't know what a nuclear explosion does?--Can't they just search the Web to find the data/facts they want?

Actual research data on manufacture of nuclear weapons is a tightly guarded secret. It cannot be Googled.

There're also simulator-programs to 'test' their bomb, and if the bomb is a bit 'weak', they could just add 1/2Kg of plutonium or whatever!

Seeing as they have no trade potential (trade is blocked by the US and China) how would they acquire such programs? And how could they trust them?

I don't see they have a lot of alternative rather than lighting the blue touch paper.

 

[BasketCase]

North Korea has no alternative. They probably learned a lesson from the collapse of the Soviet Union--the moment the USSR started trying to play nice just a little, with that glasnost and what-all, the people revolted. North Korea is probably terrified of allowing that first crack that might break the wall. The only way out (that they see) is to close up the shop tight and make sure that first crack never appears.

Which means the country will just continue to stagnate until either the rest of the world or the North Koreans themselves finally can't take it any more, get out their guns, and fill North Korean troops and government officials full of lead. May they get hit in lots of painful places and die very slowly.

 

[A'AbarachAmadan]

Given the complete ignorance by the US of the existence of North Korea, I'm not surprised.

Sometimes the only way to get attention from a bully is to stick both fingers up their nose.

The only bully here is NK. Last time I checked it was NK who was kidnapping Japanese citizens, targeting SK politicians for execution as well as kidnapping citizens, and had its people trying to escape from the bully Kim. If borders were open, the stream would 99% out of NK.

 

[CruddyLeper]

The only bully here is NK. Last time I checked it was NK who was kidnapping Japanese citizens, targeting SK politicians for execution as well as kidnapping citizens, and had its people trying to escape from the bully Kim. If borders were open, the stream would 99% out of NK.

I quite agree that NK terrrorises individuals from both outside and inside its borders.

I just don't think that sticking your fingers in your ears and saying "La la la - you don't exist" is a way out of the mess.

 

[silver 2039]

This is likley posturing. It's sorta of similar to what we did.

We knew when the American sattlites were passing overhead so we let them see what we wanted them to see. If anyone recalls the 1998 nuclear test the Americans were wacthing one place thinking thats where the nuclear tests was going to be but then it turned out to be a compley diffrent place.
lol! It was a pretty big CIA blunder. They did'nt have that much HUMINT in India and certainley don't have any in North Korea so it's pretty east for them to decieve the US.

 

[RedWolf]

How much do you want to bet that CNN and FOX already have logos and cool slogans designed and prepared for when the bomb finally does get tested? (be it next week or next year).

"Nuclear Penninsula"

"Korea - On the brink?"

"Korea on the Brink."

"Nuclear North"

"Nuclear Showdown"

"North Korea - Head to Head!"

"Nuclear Nightmare"

You get the picture.....

 

[wit>trope]

Hopefully the North Koreans blow themselves up, would be hilarious.

What the US should consider is immediate nuclear retaliation on NK. So as soon as the test is detected, send in some bombers or missiles and nuke the communist regime to death ... maybe just everywhere where the NK army is, then it could reunify with the rest of Korea. In the confusion, NK won't be able to counter-retaliate (against Japan or whatever). NK might think the other nuke explosions were the results of their own test or something. We can call the operation "Shock and Boom"

I am serious. I'm sure someone has brought this up for consideration.

 

[RedWolf]

I am serious. I'm sure someone has brought this up for consideration.

I doubt it.

Most rational people tend to dismiss nuclear "first strike" as lunacy.

 

[wit>trope]

I doubt it.

Most rational people tend to dismiss nuclear "first strike" as lunacy.

Nuclear first strike isn't that different from the Bush doctrine of pre-emptive/preventative war.

 

[BasketCase]

@RedWolf: You left a headline out of your list, bro--

NORTH KOREA NUKED OFF THE MAP
Detonations over Pyongyang--Millions Celebrate Worldwide​

 

[RedWolf]

Nuclear first strike isn't that different from the Bush doctrine of pre-emptive/preventative war.

Fair enough.. most people in the world believe that Bush's doctrine was/is lunacy.

Include a nuclear option and the US simply becomes a terrorist/pariah state.

 

[BasketCase]

We're only that if we start intentionally shooting people who disagree with U.S. policies. That is not happening, and it probably never will.

 

[RedWolf]

We're only that if we start intentionally shooting people who disagree with U.S. policies. That is not happening, and it probably never will.

Or if you start dropping atomic weapons on countries that haven't actually attacked you yet.

 

[A'AbarachAmadan]

I just don't think that sticking your fingers in your ears and saying "La la la - you don't exist" is a way out of the mess.

I don't think the US is doing that. The President decided US-NK direct talks have historically failed and are trying to push 6-nation talks if they want to negotiate. Definately out of the box thinking that may (or may not) work.

 

[BasketCase]

Or if you start dropping atomic weapons on countries that haven't actually attacked you yet.

If North Korea dropped a nuke on South Korea, Japan, or any other nation I consider a friend nation, I would have no problem with nuking North Korea in retaliation, even if U.S. soil was never touched. And I would reject any accusation that such action would make the U.S. a terrorist state.