This article lays out a number of arguments for why Martian colonization is a pipe dream and will never be done by the human race. I'm quoting the highlights, but I recommend you ignore them and just read the whole thing.
These are really serious issues and I'm upset (but not surprised) that none of them have ever caught my notice before now. Unfortunately, while the article also sensibly dismisses terraforming, it is credulous of pseudoscience like cybernetics, nanotech and genetic engineering.
Personally, I don't think there is any need to expand human civilization to hostile planets. Giant arcologies in space will probably be capable of creating a near-Earthlike environment, though I doubt there will ever be a substitute for actually living on our homeworld. I think we'll be able to counter most threats to it as well (except for nuclear war, but I also think that future political developments will mitigate that risk).
Even if Martian colonization is possible, it will assuredly never be done by optimistic tech types like Elon Musk. Maybe a tight-bound religious commune. Even though people wouldn't want to live there given the choice, it's really difficult to get to Earth from it and requires a lot of resources per person, which makes it different from other hostile environments like Antarctica in a way that is usually ignored. So yes, I can imagine a splinter group of colonists going native while the rest get out while the going's good.
Spoiler Atmosphere and Temperature :
Air pressure on Mars is very low; at 600 Pascals, it’s only about 0.6 percent that of Earth. You might as well be exposed to the vacuum of space, resulting in a severe form of the bends—including ruptured lungs, dangerously swollen skin and body tissue, and ultimately death. The thin atmosphere also means that heat cannot be retained at the surface. The average temperature on Mars is -81 degrees Fahrenheit (-63 degrees Celsius), with temperatures dropping as low as -195 degrees F (-126 degrees C). By contrast, the coldest temperature ever recorded on Earth was at Vostok Station in Antarctica, at -128 degrees F (-89 degrees C) on June 23, 1982. Once temperatures get below the -40 degrees F/C mark, people who aren’t properly dressed for the occasion can expect hypothermia to set in within about five to seven minutes.
Spoiler Radiation :
Living underground or in shielded bases may be an option, she said, but we have to expect that cancer rates will still be “an order of magnitude greater” given the added exposure over time.
“You can only do so much with radiation protection,” Horgan said. “We could quantify the risks for about a year, but not over the super long term. The problem is that you can’t stay in there [i.e. underground or in bases] forever. As soon as you go outside to do anything, you’re in trouble,” she said.
Horgan pointed to a recent Nature study showing that radiation on Mars is far worse than we thought, adding that “we don’t have the long-term solutions yet, unless you want to risk radiation illnesses.” Depending on the degree of exposure, excessive radiation can result in skin burns, radiation sickness, cancer, and cardiovascular disease.
Spoiler Quality of life :
Life in a Martian colony would be miserable, with people forced to live in artificially lit underground bases, or in thickly protected surface stations with severely minimized access to the outdoors. Life in this closed environment, with limited access to the surface, could result in other health issues related to exclusive indoor living, such as depression, boredom from lack of stimulus, an inability to concentrate, poor eyesight, and high blood pressure—not to mention a complete disconnect from nature. And like the International Space Station, Martian habitats will likely be a microbial desert, hosting only a tiny sample of the bacteria needed to maintain a healthy human microbiome.
Another issue has to do with motivation. As Friedman pointed out earlier, we don’t see colonists living in Antarctica or under the sea, so why should we expect troves of people to want to live in a place that’s considerably more unpleasant? It seems a poor alternative to living on Earth, and certainly a major step down in terms of quality of life. A strong case could even be made that, for prospective families hoping to spawn future generations of Martian colonists, it’s borderline cruelty.
Spoiler Gravity :
Seidler, an expert in human physiology and kinesiology, said the issue of human gestation on Mars is a troublesome unknown. The developing fetus, she said, is likely to sit higher up in the womb owing to the lower gravity, which will press upon the mother’s diaphragm, making it hard for the mother to breathe. The low gravity may also “confuse” the gestational process, delaying or interfering with critical phases of the fetus’ development, such as the fetus dropping by week 39. On Earth, bones, muscles, the circulatory system, and other aspects of human physiology develop by working against gravity. It’s possible that the human body might adapt to the low-gravity situation on Mars, but we simply don’t know. An artificial womb might be a possible solution, but again, that’s not something we’ll have access to anytime soon, nor does it solve the low-gravity issue as it pertains to fetal development (unless the artificial womb is placed in a centrifuge to simulate gravity).
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For other colonists, the minimal gravity on Mars could result in serious health problems over the long term. Studies of astronauts who have participated in long-duration missions lasting about a year exhibit troubling symptoms, including bone and muscle loss, cardiovascular problems, immune and metabolic disorders, visual disorders, balance and sensorimotor problems, among many other health issues. These problems may not be as acute as those experienced on Mars, but again, we simply don’t know. Perhaps after five or 10 or 20 years of constant exposure to low gravity, similar gravity-related disorders will set in.
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“There are a lot of questions still unanswered about how microgravity and partial gravity will affect human physiology,” Seidler told Gizmodo. “We don’t yet understand the safety or health implications. More needs to be done.”
Astronauts who return from long-duration missions have a rough go for the first few days back on Earth, experiencing nausea, dizziness, and weakness. Some astronauts, like NASA’s Scott Kelly, never feel like their old selves again, including declines in cognitive test scores and altered gene function. Work by NASA’s Scott Wood has shown that recovery time for astronauts is proportionate to the length of the mission—the longer the mission, the longer the recovery. Disturbingly, we have no data for microgravity exposure beyond a year or so, and it’s an open question as to the effects of low gravity on the human body after years, or even decades, of exposure.
Spoiler Food :
Colonists will also need stable food sources, and figure out a way to keep plants away from radiation. The regolith, or soil, on Mars is toxic, containing dangerous perchlorate chemicals, so that also needs to be avoided. To grow crops, colonists will likely build subterranean hydroponic greenhouses. This will require specialized lighting, genetically modified plants designed specifically for Mars, and plenty of water, the latter of which will be difficult to source on Mars.
Personally, I don't think there is any need to expand human civilization to hostile planets. Giant arcologies in space will probably be capable of creating a near-Earthlike environment, though I doubt there will ever be a substitute for actually living on our homeworld. I think we'll be able to counter most threats to it as well (except for nuclear war, but I also think that future political developments will mitigate that risk).
Even if Martian colonization is possible, it will assuredly never be done by optimistic tech types like Elon Musk. Maybe a tight-bound religious commune. Even though people wouldn't want to live there given the choice, it's really difficult to get to Earth from it and requires a lot of resources per person, which makes it different from other hostile environments like Antarctica in a way that is usually ignored. So yes, I can imagine a splinter group of colonists going native while the rest get out while the going's good.
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