SGOTM 18 - Plastic Ducks

[Doshin]

It might be right there in front of us. 10 turns +1 'for' vs. -1 'against' in an AP vote sounds about right.

When I'm at home, I'll click 'end turn' through to T51 on the test file, to see if anything happens to the negative event modifier.

Gandhi just goes nuts when you declare war on his friends, or nuke them. That caused snaaty some minor problems in his recent space game.

 

[UnforcedError]

We can postpone the trades until next turn and move the worker on the forest as planned. If nothing happens next turn (Joao does not demand Writing and Gandhi does not get AH), we can still go for Mining + Hunting <--> Writing with Gandhi and BW <--> Writing + Fishing with Mansa. Gandhi might be teching Writing now, but I think Mining + Hunting is still very likely on the cards.

 

[kossin]

Updated post #820.

 

[Doshin]

Thanks kossin. Could you graph the MemDecay for Give_Help as well? I would do this myself, but I am a (<---- dunce cap) and do not know how.

I've no strong opinion about delaying trading for a turn. The worst case would be that there is Copper 1-tile away from the capital, and that Gandhi is researching Writing; the best case is that Gandhi is researching Animal Husbandry and finishes this IBT.

 

[kossin]

Binomial is pretty easy to plot: 1 - (odds)^(#turns)

Where odds is the chance you don't get the event.



It's very unlikely to decay but you never know.

 

[UnforcedError]

^^It's not something we should count on in any case

Updated test save version 11. Only bothered with the tiles that could be important in the near future, didn't adjust scouting units either, but I don't think that matters much right now. (Gandhi wants to give us Myst in the test save for some reason.) Hope I didn't forget too many things.

 

[kossin]

Good work UE, I'll take a look a bit later.

We should either trade this turn or advance 1 turn and trade soon to avoid losing too much time.

 

[UnforcedError]

We have to trade next turn the latest so that the worker can either chop or improve the pig.

What are the chances that Joao will demand Writing next turn or that Gandhi will get AH? For our little empire's sake it's probably better to trade and revolt this turn. New York can get its worker 1T sooner and we will want to farm and cottage that city to fuel expansion. The way I see it we will need to settle at least two cities near Genghis fairly rapidly.

 

[Doshin]

Gandhi researched/bulbed Monotheism on T26. Four turns (for him) have passed since then. His capital will generate a minimum of 9 CPT (Palace = 8; city tile = 1) and it is likely that he has some source of commerce in there too. He will have at least 50+ next turn.

India start with Mining and Mysticism; Immortal AI receive Hunting, Archery, Agriculture; kcd added Masonry and Sailing.

So far, then, he has researched

Buddhism; Polytheism; Monotheism.

Am I missing something? Nothing like staying true to form...

He's probably close to something, but that something could be one of TW, AH, and BW.

After that, I'm just guessing TBH . But if Gandhi had an animal resource in his BFC, I'd have expected him to tech AH by now. He grabbed a religion with Meditation, after all. He is also at war which bumps up the value of Bronze Working in the AI's eyes. Finally, this is the most expensive (and hence slowest) of the available techs he might go for, which would explain his snail-like tech pace.

I would trade this turn. We know that Mansa is researching IW, so if Gandhi does research AH, we can trade Alpha for: AH + Sailing + Archery, vel sim. Revolting 1-turn sooner means that we can whip New York's Worker 1-turn earlier; we may also discover a source of Copper; and we have to make a decision, so I picked this one.

 

[Doshin]

Also, FYI, Dr. Evil has Copper somewhere ("fear my Axemen!") and everyone else that we can talk to (i.e. not Goldmember) has Archers.

 

[BornInCantaloup]

We'll need 4 turns to research AH ourselves, is that right? Assuming Hunting and small bonuses due to 2 AIs knowing the tech, the beaker cost is inferior to 100

If Gandhi is researching Writing, we have nothing to gain by not trading this turn. On the contrary, this can speed up his research of AH.

In our position, Doshin's right that we may do better trading for Hunting rather than Sailing (self-research AH).

Do we have a good micro for the Granary in N-Y if we whip the worker on T32? I didn't find one but only tried once.


@Chances that Gandhi will get AH before us:
Low but larger if we trade him the tech he's researching.

@Revolting asap:
Yes we want to do that, even though it'd delay our research of AH by a turn... Yes? We have 2 Worker and 2 Granary whips set up already.

@UE:
Thanks for the testgame

 

[UnforcedError]

Do we want to do the trades in the real game now, assuming everyone agrees on trading for BW this turn? It might be easier to dotmap with knowing where copper is.

 

[BornInCantaloup]

Do we want to do the trades in the real game now, assuming everyone agrees on trading for BW this turn? It might be easier to dotmap with knowing where copper is.

I'm going to sleep now but you can count me in for the Writing trades Doshin suggested

 

[Doshin]

@Revolting asap:
Yes we want to do that, even though it'd delay our research of AH by a turn... Yes? We have 2 Worker and 2 Granary whips set up already.

This is a good point. I suppose it is irrespective of trading, though.

Gandhi is absolutely not researching Fishing or Writing, btw. We can make the Writing <----> Mining + Hunting trade, so no worries there.

Do we want to do the trades in the real game now, assuming everyone agrees on trading for BW this turn? It might be easier to dotmap with knowing where copper is.

Let's wait to trade until we have a majority. I count two in favor of trading this turn. Three if you are also in favor, UE.

And thanks for keeping the test map up to date.

 

[UnforcedError]

I already said I was And I wouldn't want to self-tech AH, if possible. That just delays Maths which we will really need for our rapid expansion plans.

 

[kossin]

Getting BW this turn makes sense, if only so we know where bronze is. We can consider buying peace as well afterwards.

 

[UnforcedError]

I could then make the trades and revolt when I'm back home without moving the worker or ending turn, so that we could start planning the next TS.

Tried the test game a few times, it will need some adjustments still. Mansa would get AH almost immediately and we'd have TRs with him as soon as we have Sailing, which we probably don't have in the real game. Also, Gandhi and Mansa would start bombarding us with missionaries.

 

[Dubioza]

I'm confused, on pages 36-37 we were discussing (and we agreed) on settler-worker-settler in Washington and we played settler-settler-worker.

As for trades, I agree we should trade this turn, before unit moves.

 

[UnforcedError]

@Dubioza: we went settler - worker - (settler) in Washington (although the decision on the next settler could still change, no hammers in yet). We agreed that it was superior to worker - settler see especially BiC's and Shakabrade's last test games.

 

[BornInCantaloup]

I'm confused, on pages 36-37 we were discussing (and we agreed) on settler-worker-settler in Washington and we played settler-settler-worker.

From T0 to T5, Washington grew on a Warrior. Then we tested to the 3rd settler produced.

Two build orders were tested thoroughly:
(Warrior) Settler - settler - worker - settler;
(Warrior) Settler - worker - settler - settler.

In any case, we then played Warrior - Settler. At that point, the two build orders listed above became:
(Warrior - Settler) Settler - worker - settler;
(Warrior - Settler) Worker - settler - settler.

That must be what confused you. On T5, option 2 was called "Settler - worker - settler" but on T15 this was the name of option 1 (the one we picked).

Regarding the advantage of option 1 vs option 2 (settler x2 vs settler - worker... after the warrior is built), you can refer to posts: 668 and 563, 570.

Basically:
In "Warrior - settler - worker - settler - settler", the worker has poor value because it spends 10 turns to farm a fp only. After 15 turns, it has pastured the pigs and this is his first relevant action (+3food).
"Warrior - settler - settler - worker - settler" is better because the worker is timed with the pigs pasture. Each settler is worth +3F+1H/turn: that's what the worker competes against.
3F1H is infinitely better than 1F, that's why "settler - settler" was preferred to "(warrior) settler - worker (settler - settler)".

Cheers!