SGOTM 18 - Plastic Ducks

[UnforcedError]

Save: http://gotm.civfanatics.net/download.php?file=Plastic_Ducks_SG018_BC2760_01.CivBeyondSwordSave
Log:

Spoiler :

Here is your Session Turn Log from 3400 BC to 2760 BC:

Turn 15, 3400 BC: Joao II adopts Slavery!

Turn 16, 3360 BC: New York has been founded.

Turn 19, 3240 BC: Zoroaster (Great Prophet) has been born in a far away land!

Turn 21, 3160 BC: Judaism has been founded in a distant land!

Turn 22, 3120 BC: Mansa Musa adopts Organized Religion!
Turn 22, 3120 BC: Mansa Musa converts to Judaism!

Turn 24, 3040 BC: You have trained a Settler in Washington. Work has now begun on a Granary.
Turn 24, 3040 BC: Abu Bakr (Great Prophet) has been born in a far away land!
Turn 24, 3040 BC: Genghis Khan adopts Slavery!

Turn 26, 2960 BC: Gandhi adopts Organized Religion!

Turn 27, 2920 BC: Boston has been founded.

Turn 28, 2880 BC: Dr Evil adopts Slavery!

Turn 30, 2800 BC: You have discovered Alphabet!
Turn 30, 2800 BC: You have trained a Worker in Washington. Work has now begun on a Granary.

Turn 31, 2760 BC: Gandhi will trade Hunting, Mining, Sailing
Turn 31, 2760 BC: Mansa Musa will trade Hunting, Mining, Mysticism, Sailing, The Wheel
Turn 31, 2760 BC: Dr Evil will trade Animal Husbandry, Hunting, Mining, Sailing, The Wheel

Quite interestingly Gandhi and Joao still only have one city.

 

[Doshin]

Good work in any case, UnforcedError.

Did Mansa bulb Monotheism?

 

[shakabrade]

Not good at all.

Edit: Lol, after Doshin's post it sounds like it's against UE. Of course, not having AH is what's not good.

We must make a good use of Boston somehow. Maybe it'd be wise to prechop forests around Pigs until we get AH and put hammers into a settler when we reach optimal food bin for a granary? Then, we chop the granary, let the city grow and whip a settler and follow with a worker. We need to get the lost production somewhere. I hope we'll get AH soon.

 

[UnforcedError]

Well, neither of these colossal idiots managed a shrine...

EDIT: we can only get a +1 from Joao if we gift Writing. If he were to demand it, however... that would get him to cautious.
EDIT2: Honestly, I've never seen Joao with only 1 city on T31 on IMM. Could he be handicapped somehow?

 

[shakabrade]

Did Mansa bulb Monotheism?

Must have. He generated way too many beakers. What a waste. In some other game he found Buddhism or Hindu and built a Shrine and is teching like mad.

IMM/EXP and one city. Indeed. Could be blocked by another AI.

 

[kossin]

Back to the drawing board then. A few turns at o% are needed anyway but man these AIs...

 

[Doshin]

There's one turn in which Gandhi can tech Animal Husbandry, or Joao can demand a tech from us, before we reach the Pigs.

It's not the worst thing ever. We gain a Worker turn by chopping before creating a Pasture. Also, a Bronze Working trade may reveal Copper. We should probably trade this before we move the Worker.

At this stage, I think insta-whipping the Granary in Boston will be strongest. The city will have happiness problems, so it's a good idea to install essential infra-structure now, and give the whip anger time to fade.

 

[shakabrade]

Well to be honest, Alpha beeline is a gamble.

 

[UnforcedError]

I think both Mansa and Gandhi bulbed Mono actually :facepalm:

Is it OK of I only update the test game tomorrow (err... later tonight)? I'm a bit tired and will have to get up early.

 

[shakabrade]

I think both Mansa and Gandhi bulbed Mono actually :facepalm:

Fantastic!!!!!!!


Take your time, UnforcedError.

And .

 

[UnforcedError]

Maybe we're supposed to keep these idiots alive. Maybe both Gandhi and Joao are next to Goldmember and will die soon unless we do something...

 

[kossin]

No hurry on the test game, anyone can do it. We don't care about any tile we're not going to send a settler or worker to.

 

[Doshin]

I don't think we can draw any conclusions yet about Joao and Gandhi failing to expand. In testing, the AI are often stuck at 1-city ~T31. Gandhi has the highest land % of any of the AI, so isn't necessarily boxed in.

Being at war with Goldmember will make the AI more cautious. Also, Genghis clearly has an excellent capital (double Corn), which might not be the case with the other two.

 

[Zx Zero Zx]

If we don't have AH by the time we get our worker on the pigs, we should throw a chop into a worker or granary to bide our time to see if we can get AH in the next 4 turns.

I wonder how both Gandhi, and Mansa bulb Mono. Maybe they both started with a GProphet or something weird.

What save should be used for test games? Just the normal one?

 

[UnforcedError]

I wonder how both Gandhi, and Mansa bulb Mono. Maybe they both started with a GProphet or something weird.

What save should be used for test games? Just the normal one?

Er, no. They started with SH and ToA. You can see when their prophets were born in the logs.

Yes, please use v10 for now. I will update it after I'm back from work.

 

[Zx Zero Zx]

Er, no. They started with SH and ToA. You can see when their prophets were born in the logs.

Yes, please use v10 for now. I will update it after I'm back from work.

Ohhh, whoop forgot about that. Alright will do.

 

[BornInCantaloup]

Interesting, well played, UnforcedError

Alphabet: we need to keep it from Mansa to trade for IW in 5 turns.
Writing to Gandhi: prolly a trade to do now (+Fishing for Sailing + Mining)? That would max the chances he goes for AH... possibly researching it in 1 turn (2x beakers for him into AH if he's researching Writing).

Theology: requires Writing (so Gandhi can't be researching it right now... but can be aiming for it).

 

[UnforcedError]

We should be able to trade Writing to Gandhi for Mining + ??? and Writing + Fishing to Mansa for BW, that's no problem. However, if we want Mansa's IW as soon as he has it we have to rely on Gandhi to research AH for us and give him Alpha for AH and the rest of the techs.

I just can't understand why Gandhi didn't shrine. First shrine should be 100% with the first great prophet IIRC... unless he believes he's after the Renaissance. Maybe all AIs have some advanced techs, that's the only explanation I can come up with. We should keep this in mind, this will affect trade caps too.

 

[Doshin]

Did anyone ever write a good guide to diplo modifiers? Or does anyone know where (or if) the basic information has been summarized?

The "You Declared War on Us!" -3 lasts the entire game; the +2 "You Voted for Us!" atrophies very quickly. How long does the +1 "You Gave Us Tribute" bonus last?

One point to bear in mind, for those of you who are unaware, is that a demand from a regular AI is really worth 2 diplo points: +1 "You Gave Us Tribute" vs. -1 "You Refused to Help Us." But with Gandhi, this isn't the case. Gandhi doesn't care if you refuse his demands (no negative modifiers). And, since he trades techs even at Furious, we can afford to be a little more liberal with our diplo management.

---

In any case, trading at this point seems to boil down to:

1. a) Gandhi. Writing <----> Mining + Hunting
1. b) Gandhi. Writing + Fishing <----> Mining + Sailing

2. a) Mansa. Writing + Fishing <----> Bronze Working

3. a) Mansa. Alphabet <----> Iron Working + Mysticism
3. b) Mansa. Alphabet <----> Iron Working + Hunting

Writing + Fishing is not good enough for Mining + Animal Husbandry, but is ok for Sailing. I guess that's because all 6 AI have Sailing:

Spoiler :

Another possibility is:

1. c) Gandhi. Wait one turn, researching AH (at least +20 , going to 26 with bonuses). Writing + Fishing <----> Mining + Animal Husbandry

Spoiler :

Obviously this would depend massively on Gandhi's current tech path and progress.

----

Personally, I'd suggest 1. (a) Mining + Hunting, from Gandhi; 2. (a) Bronze Working, from Mansa; and 3. a) Iron Working + Mysticism, from Mansa. The earlier Hunting means that we can research AH more cheaply ourselves, if need be.

I don't think Gandhi will research Fishing. There are no guarantees, OFC, but he has the highest current land %, which suggests he has an inland capital.

 

[kossin]

Gandhi doesn't care for demands either, you'll never get demerits.

Here are the relevant values for diplo. I don't remember the exact formula but it can be dug up to figure how long it'd likely last.

Spoiler :

EDIT: found it.

Every turn, roll a random check: X = RAND(0,MemDecay)

If X = 0, apply decay.

So for AP, X = RAND(0,10). It can be plotted as a binomial CPDF to see the odds after X turns.